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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1802 台玻. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1802
1802
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 台玻 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 55th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +51% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 10,768 lots since the start (sold 19%), still adding.
- Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 34,786 lots, has sold 46%, 18,737 left, ~160 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -5.17pp, mid holders -42, retail +5.78pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -31,790 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +10,768
- 凱基-站前 +5,956
- 富邦-南京 +3,534
- 國泰-高雄 +3,200
- 花旗環球 +3,031
- 華南永昌-豐原 +2,651
Distributing
- 美商高盛 18,737 left
- 摩根大通 8,538 left
- 永豐金證券 7,257 left
- 新光 1,765 left
- 富邦-新店 1,427 left
- 永豐金-萬盛 630 left
Desks
- 華南永昌-忠孝 -45,307
- 富邦證券 -36,361
- 統一 -17,759
- 美林 -16,334
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 297 | +0.2% | -6.3% | 33.3% | -32.3% |
| 20-40 | 105 | +1.9% | +5.9% | 64.8% | -39.2% |
| 40-60 | 195 | +89.9% | +145.5% | 64.1% | +20.8% |
| 60-80 | 131 | +11.8% | -19% | 23.7% | -2.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 123 | +29% | +31.6% | 82.9% | +6.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 533.08, at the 97.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 177 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 65.7%, win rate 68.9%, beat the market by 46.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.15%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +5.65 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.28%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +2.67 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
67 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.27%, win rate 34.8%, beating the market by -4.76 pts on average.
What does 台玻 do? Company profile
Overview
1802 對應證券為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股「台玻」，公司全名為台灣玻璃工業股份有限公司，英文名 TAIWAN GLASS IND. CORP.，產業別為玻璃陶瓷。公司成立於 1964/08/25，上市日期 1973/07/20，總部位於台北市松山區南京東路三段261號台玻大樓11樓；董事長林伯豐，總經理林伯實，發言人林嘉明；實收資本額約新台幣290.80608億元，已發行普通股約29.080608億股。公開法說資料與市場整理指出全球員工約1.2萬人左右，惟各資料時點略有差異。2025年股東會主要股東資料（114年4月13日止）顯示，前十大股東高度集中於林氏家族相關投資公司與退休管理委員會，包含台豐投資14.44%、合和投資13.84%、台建投資8.56%、台玉投資8.44%、台成投資7.84%、台嘉投資5.42%、林建成嘉記4.71%、台玻職工退休管理委員會1.35%、S.E.A. GLASS INDUSTRY PTE LTD 0.86%、嘉宏股份有限公司0.73%。
Business
台玻是綜合玻璃製造商，主要產品與服務包含平板玻璃、Low-E節能玻璃、加工玻璃、汽車玻璃、玻璃纖維束、電子級玻璃纖維布、玻璃器皿、容食廚玻璃等。2025年前三季法說資料顯示，合併營收約新台幣307.03億元，其中平板玻璃約186.49億元、佔61%；玻璃纖維約93.11億元、佔30%；玻璃器皿約27.42億元、佔9%；其他占比極低。2024全年營收約425.03億元，平板玻璃佔68%、玻璃纖維佔23%、玻璃器皿佔9%。商業模式為自有窯爐與產線量產玻璃基礎材料及深加工產品，平板玻璃主要面向建築、建材、節能玻璃與加工玻璃需求，主要市場含台灣與中國大陸；玻璃器皿面向食品飲料包材、餐廚與客製化外銷；玻璃纖維布則供應銅箔基板（CCL）與PCB產業鏈，應用於AI伺服器、高速運算、5G、網通、車用電子、ABF/BT載板等高階電子材料。2025年後市場焦點集中在第一代、第二代Low DK低介電玻纖布與Low CTE低熱膨脹係數玻纖布，據MoneyDJ報導，台玻高階客戶包含台光電與聯茂等CCL大廠，並透過下游供應鏈進入AI伺服器與高速運算應用。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望呈現傳統玻璃低迷、電子級玻纖布高成長的雙軌結構。成長動能方面，AI伺服器、GPU/ASIC、高速交換器與高階PCB升級推動Low DK、Low CTE等玻纖布需求放大；台玻法說資料指出2025年前三季玻璃纖維營收約93.1億元、獲利約10億元，較前期大幅成長，電子級玻纖布產能滿載。公司於2018年完成第一代Low DK，2023年完成第二代Low DK與Low CTE開發，2025年第三季第二代Low DK放量，Low CTE亦通過認證並開始交貨。產能方面，2025年法說資料預期2026年高階玻纖布隨新產能開出，供貨可望較2025年增加40%至50%；2026年6月股東會相關報導指出，公司將再投入逾20億元擴充Low DK與Low CTE產線，第三期擴產計畫預計2027年完成，並預估供需吃緊可看至2027年底。2028年需關注日本日東紡大型新產能開出後，供需缺口與價格支撐是否改變。平板玻璃方面，台玻主要市場包含中國大陸，法說資料指出建材需求持續下滑、供需結構性矛盾仍在，2025年前三季平板玻璃營業損失約11.9億元，短中期能見度偏低；公司策略為降本增效、提高原板競爭力、開發綠色建材與高附加價值產品。玻璃器皿方面，2026年外銷市場預期維持穩定，內銷將開發新產品、新客戶與異業合作。主要風險包含：中國建築玻璃景氣長期低迷、能源與原料成本波動、匯率波動、窯爐與新產線良率爬坡不如預期、客戶認證與導入速度變動、日東紡等國際競爭者擴產、高階玻纖布價格回落、AI伺服器需求循環反轉，以及碳排與環保成本上升。
Supply Chain
- 矽砂、純鹼、石灰石、白雲石、硼化物與碎玻璃等玻璃原料供應商 平板玻璃、玻璃纖維與玻璃器皿的主要上游原料類別；未能由公開資料確認台玻各項原料的單一主要供應商。
- 天然氣、重油、電力等能源供應商 玻璃窯爐高耗能，能源價格與燃料轉換影響成本；公開法說提及新竹廠窯爐改為天然氣與重油雙燃料，但未揭露具名供應商。
- 窯爐、玻纖拉絲、織布、鍍膜與加工設備供應商 支援平板玻璃、Low-E玻璃、電子級玻纖布與容食玻璃產線擴產及良率提升；未能確認具名供應商。
- 國外技術團隊與專利/製程合作方 媒體報導指出台玻自2023年起引進國外技術團隊共同開發高階Low DK與Low CTE玻纖布；具名合作方未公開揭露。
- 台光電 2383 高階銅箔基板（CCL）大廠；MoneyDJ報導為台玻高階玻纖布主要客戶之一，透過CCL供應鏈切入AI伺服器與高速運算應用。
- 聯茂 6213 銅箔基板（CCL）大廠；MoneyDJ報導為台玻高階玻纖布主要客戶之一。
- 台燿 6274 高階CCL與PCB材料廠，屬台玻玻纖布下游應用鏈潛在或同業報告常列之下游客戶群；是否為台玻直接主要客戶未能由官方資料確認。
- PCB與載板製造商 玻纖布與樹脂、銅箔壓合為CCL後供應PCB、ABF/BT載板與伺服器主板；多數直接客戶經由CCL廠傳導需求。
- AI伺服器、雲端服務與高速運算終端客戶 包含NVIDIA、Google、Amazon、Microsoft等海外科技公司需求帶動高階板材升級；多屬間接終端需求，非公開確認的台玻直接客戶。
- 建築建材、節能玻璃、汽車玻璃與食品飲料包材通路/客戶 平板玻璃、Low-E節能玻璃、汽車玻璃與玻璃器皿的主要下游市場；公開資料未完整揭露具名主要客戶。
Competitors
- 富喬 1815 台股上櫃玻纖紗、玻纖布廠，與台玻在電子級玻纖布、高階Low DK/Low CTE材料受惠題材上具直接競爭與替代關係。
- 南亞 1303 台股上市電子材料與塑化大廠，布局銅箔基板、玻纖布/電子材料等PCB上游材料，與台玻在部分電子材料供應鏈具競合關係。
- 建榮 5340 台股上櫃公司，市場常列為玻纖布或高階電子布相關概念股；部分產品與客戶應用與台玻高階玻纖布重疊。
- 日東紡（Nitto Boseki） 日本上市公司，非台股掛牌；高階玻纖布全球主要競爭者，媒體報導其高階市占率逾五成，並預計2028年前後新增大型產能。
- 中國巨石 中國A股上市玻纖大廠，非台股掛牌；在全球玻璃纖維與部分電子材料市場具競爭壓力。
- 信義玻璃 香港上市玻璃製造商，非台股掛牌；在中國與亞洲平板玻璃、建築玻璃市場與台玻競爭。
- AGC旭硝子 日本上市玻璃與材料大廠，非台股掛牌；在建築玻璃、汽車玻璃、顯示與電子材料領域具全球競爭力。
- NSG日本板硝子 日本上市玻璃大廠，非台股掛牌；在平板玻璃、汽車玻璃與建築玻璃市場為國際競爭者。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.