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2369

菱生 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 菱生 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 26Quality 33Growth 80Momentum 57Chips 69

Is 菱生 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 32th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 70th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 72th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 38.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.28
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 宏遠證券 holds 2,374 lots
  • sellers have 19,132 lots left, ~221 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 宏遠證券 has accumulated 2,374 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 13,625 lots, has sold 42%, 7,925 left, ~22 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.01pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.51pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,993 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
宏遠證券台新-台中國泰證券元大-中崙富邦-中壢國泰-台中
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛凱基-台北元大證券港商野村國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美林新光
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 宏遠證券 +2,374
    sold 0%
  • 台新-台中 +1,372
    sold 0%
  • 國泰證券 +752
    sold 0%
  • 元大-中崙 +683
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 富邦-中壢 +651
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-台中 +647
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 7,925 left
    sold 42%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 4,029 left
    sold 41%· ~66 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 3,839 left
    sold 33%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 875 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 1,518 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 1,639 left
    sold 42%· ~221 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,638
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -2,394
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -1,723
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新光 -1,197
    unclassified
Still selling 19,132 lots ~221 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,570 absorbed / -7,097 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -8,755 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 38.72%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

43 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 36, Median +2.27%, Excess +0.7%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 34, Median +12.42%, Excess +5.11%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 77.4%, Sample 31, Median +19.37%, Excess +7.3%, Beat mkt rate 54.8%

120 days after: historical avg +16.23%

20-day +3.08%
60-day +12.8%
120-day +16.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
70.6%
77.4%
Sample
36
34
31
Median
+2.27%
+12.42%
+19.37%
Excess
+0.7%
+5.11%
+7.3%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
54.8%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.23%, beat the market by 7.3 pts; win rate 77.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 37-29.6% -28.7% 0% -26.4%
20-40 69-37.8% -40.5% 0% -25.1%
40-60 176+13.9% +10.2% 69.3% -6.5%
60-80 You are here352+5.8% -1.2% 48.9% -12.4%
80-100 743+23.5% +30.5% 58.8% -4.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 25.45, at the 72.3th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
+1.7%
Win rate 67.5% Excess -1.8%
151d
+0.3%
Win rate 49.2% Excess -6%
486d
60-day momentum down
-15.4%
Win rate 19.2% Excess -13.3%
167d
0%
Win rate 51.9% Excess -1.1%
162d
Now
+26.3%
Win rate 47.7% Excess +3.4%
524d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 524 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 26.3%, win rate 47.7%, beat the market by 3.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.03%, win rate 68.6%, beating the market by +4.26 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.77%, win rate 52.3%, beating the market by +1.38 pts on average.

What does 菱生 do? Company profile

半導體業；IC封裝測試／OSAT 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2369 對應菱生精密工業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，ISIN 為 TW0002369006，上市日為 1998/04/10。公司成立於 1973/04/23，總部位於台中市潭子區南二路五之一號，主要廠區含台中潭子與梧棲等地。董事長為葉樹泉，總經理為蔡澤松。實收資本額約新台幣 38.0102344 億元，已發行普通股 380,102,344 股。依 2024 年報，截至 2025/02/28 含子公司員工數 2,617 人；2024 年底含子公司員工數 2,702 人。主要股東依 2024 年報除權基準日資料包含菱生員工持股信託專戶 5.84%、Max Fortune Investment Ltd. 4.93%、葉樹泉 3.85%、Polunin Emerging Markets Fund 保管帳戶 1.76%、利欣投資 1.49%、Vanguard 相關保管帳戶等。主要轉投資包括 Lingsen America Inc.、利欣投資、Nexus Material、Lingsen Holding (Samoa)、Chih Fong Technology、Panther Technology、Sooner Power Semiconductor 等。

Business

菱生為半導體後段封裝測試廠，商業模式以承接 IC 設計公司、IDM、半導體元件與模組客戶之委外封裝測試訂單為主，提供積體電路封裝、測試、分立式半導體封裝測試，並有電子材料批發與零組件製造、投資業務。2024 年營收結構為 IC 封裝測試 99%、其他營業收入 1%；2024 年合併營收新台幣 53.7256 億元，區域別為亞洲 86.07%、歐洲 8.94%、美洲 4.99%。主要產品與封裝型態包含 SOP、TSOP、SOT/TO、MEMS、TQFP、LQFP、QFN、CLCC/SMA/DMA 等，終端應用涵蓋消費性電子、車用電子、記憶體、通訊元件、電源管理、行動裝置、光學感測與 MEMS 感測。公司強項包括電源管理與快閃記憶體 IC 封測、MEMS 封裝、光學感測與感測模組封裝；年報揭露 2024 年台灣 IC 封裝測試產值中公司市占約 0.86%。主要客戶名稱未公開揭露，年報僅以 Customer A、B、C 表示，2024 年前三大客戶分別占營收約 14%、11%、10%，其他客戶占 65%，顯示客戶集中度中等但未高到單一客戶主導。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 展望屬中度復甦與產品組合升級期。公司 2024 年受半導體庫存調整與終端需求疲弱影響，營收年減約 3%、EPS 為 -0.45 元；但年報引用 WSTS、IEK 與 Gartner 預測，2025 年全球半導體與台灣 IC 產業將延續成長，AI、HPC、智慧手機、PC、伺服器、車用電子與新興應用帶動半導體需求。公司 2025 年計畫估計封裝測試銷售量約 55 億顆，策略包括改善製程、提升設備利用率、縮短新產品開發時間、導入自動檢查與資訊系統、開拓國內外客戶與通路。成長動能包括 MEMS 感測、光學感測、電源管理 IC、快閃記憶體、車用與醫療電子、行動裝置、穿戴裝置、AI 邊緣裝置與智慧終端需求；公司新產品開發方向包含高性能／指向性麥克風、MEMS speaker sensor、MEMS 超音波／溫度／光學對焦模組、熱影像、氣體、眼球追蹤、車用手勢感測、醫療感測、高頻無線通訊模組、clip bonding、磁性封膠等。2026 年 5 月單月營收約新台幣 6.4516 億元、年增約 38.7%，2026 年 1至5月累計營收約 29.0632 億元、年增約 37.5%，顯示景氣與訂單已有改善跡象。另 2026 年媒體報導公司預計投資約新台幣 6 億元於台中潭子、梧棲建立新產線，擴充快閃記憶體、微機電與感測元件封裝產能，導入智慧機聯網與 AI 輔助生產決策。主要風險包括成熟封測價格競爭、中國本土封測扶植、同業擴產與併購、客戶轉單、原物料與設備成本、匯率、景氣循環、車用／醫療認證週期較長，以及若 AI 與智慧終端需求不如預期，稼動率與毛利率改善可能延後。2027 至 2028 的具體財務預測公司未公開，以上為依年報策略、產業資料與近期營收／投資新聞所作之研究推論。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 導線架供應商（未揭露公司名） 主要封裝原材料之一；供應地區為台灣與新加坡，年報稱供應穩定，並維持兩家以上國內外供應商以降低單一來源風險。
  • 封裝基板供應商（未揭露公司名） 主要封裝原材料之一；供應地區為台灣與日本，年報稱供應穩定。
  • 金線／銅線供應商（未揭露公司名） 打線封裝使用之主要材料；供應地區為台灣、韓國、新加坡，年報稱供應穩定。
  • 封膠、環氧樹脂、薄膜材料供應商（未揭露公司名） 封裝製程用 compound、film、epoxy 等材料；供應地區以台灣、日本為主，年報稱供應穩定。
  • 封裝測試設備供應商（未揭露公司名） 公司因應高腳數、高效能、微型化與測試複雜度提升而添購新封裝與測試設備；具體設備供應商未揭露。
Downstream
  • Customer A（未揭露客戶名） 2024 年第一大客戶，占營收約 14%；公司未揭露實名，推定為半導體 IC／元件客戶。
  • Customer B（未揭露客戶名） 2024 年第二大客戶，占營收約 11%；公司未揭露實名，推定為半導體 IC／元件客戶。
  • Customer C（未揭露客戶名） 2024 年第三大客戶，占營收約 10%；公司未揭露實名，推定為半導體 IC／元件客戶。
  • IC 設計公司與 IDM 客戶群（未逐一揭露） 下游客戶類型，使用菱生之 IC 封裝與測試服務，終端應用含消費電子、通訊、電源管理、記憶體、車用與工業電子。
  • MEMS、光學感測、車用與醫療電子客戶群（未逐一揭露） 公司成長型應用客戶群；年報揭露 MEMS、光學感測、車用手勢感測、醫療感測等為新產品與開發方向，但未揭露客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 華泰電子 2329 Orient Semiconductor Electronics；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，屬台股上市封裝測試／電子製造服務業者。
  • 南茂科技 8150 ChipMOS Technologies；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上市封裝測試業者，亦有美國 Nasdaq ADS。
  • 超豐電子 2441 Greatek Electronics；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上市 IC 封裝測試業者。
  • 矽格 6257 Sigurd Microelectronics；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上市 OSAT／測試服務業者。
  • 台灣典範 3372 Taiwan IC Packaging Corporation；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上櫃 IC 封裝業者。
  • 福懋科 8131 Formosa Advanced Technologies；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上市 DRAM 與 IC 封裝測試業者。
  • 華東科技 8110 Walton Advanced Engineering；菱生年報列為主要競爭對手之一，為台股上市封裝測試業者。
  • 日月光投控 3711 全球大型 OSAT 集團；雖非菱生年報該段直接列名，但屬廣義封裝測試產業競爭與標竿同業。
  • 京元電子 2449 台股上市測試服務大廠；屬廣義半導體測試產業同業，與菱生在部分測試需求與客戶預算上可能競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.