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2545
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 皇翔 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 48th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.0%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 56th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 78th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.0% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 1,120 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
- Main distributor 華南永昌-淡水 peaked at 212 lots, has sold 38%, 132 left, ~24 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.12pp, mid holders +3, retail -0.38pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -58 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-台北 +1,120
- 美林 +748
- 美商高盛 +551
- 永豐金-中和 +420
- 大展 +350
- 兆豐證券 +266
Distributing
- 華南永昌-淡水 132 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 123 left
- 元大-福營 52 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 52 left
- 國泰-敦南 68 left
- 富邦-中壢 39 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -1,183
- 富邦-台北 -339
- 台新證券 -205
- 凱基-桃園 -175
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 690 | -7% | -8.7% | 39.7% | -24.7% |
| 20-40 | 841 | -0.1% | -1.9% | 47.8% | -13.4% |
| 40-60 | 231 | +22.7% | +21.7% | 62.3% | +12.7% |
| 60-80 You are here | 451 | +6.9% | +3.9% | 53.4% | -6% |
| 80-100 | 658 | +32.9% | +24.6% | 92.4% | +5.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 26.22, at the 78.2th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 642 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.9%, win rate 66.5%, beat the market by 0.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.51%, win rate 62.1%, beating the market by +0.13 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
131 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.32%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +3.23 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.5%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by -1.39 pts on average.
What does 皇翔 do? Company profile
Overview
2545 對應台灣上市普通股「皇翔」，全名皇翔建設股份有限公司，ISIN 為 TW0002545001，產業別為建材營造業，上市日為 2000/09/11。公司成立於 1991/12/06，前身為皇銘建設股份有限公司，1996 年更為現名。總部位於台北市博愛路38號8樓，董事長為廖年吉，總經理為廖宇祥。實收資本額約新台幣 3,797,348,080 元，已發行普通股 379,734,808 股；截至 2024 年報刊載之 2025/03/31 從業員工為 68 人。主要股東結構具家族與投資公司持股色彩：年報揭露皇銘實業持股 134,609,348 股、皇俊投資持股 51,957,519 股，廖年吉、廖林淑花、廖羚君、廖宇祥等自然人亦列前十大股東；皇銘實業與皇俊投資代表人均為廖林淑花且董事長相同。公司另持有北昌營造、普立斯國際開發、德潤創投等轉投資公司，形成建設、營造與資產相關布局。
Business
皇翔主要業務為委託營造廠商興建住宅、商業大樓並出租或出售，以及建材買賣與進出口；2024 年報載明營業比重以住宅大樓、透天別墅與住辦大樓出租出售為主，市場為內銷 100%。產品包含住宅大樓之住家、店鋪、停車位，住辦大樓之住家、店鋪、辦公室、商場、停車位，以及透天別墅之住家、店鋪等。商業模式以土地開發、市場研究、規劃設計、廣告企劃、工程發包、業務銷售、營造施工、完工交屋、售後服務與資產管理為主軸；本身為建設業，營造工程主要委託合格營造廠與承包商。公司深耕大台北，尤其板橋、土城、樹林、三峽及台北市精華區，客戶以自住型中產階級、換屋族、投資型買方、商辦與店面租戶為主，銷售對象分散；2024 年無單一銷貨客戶超過 10%，2023 年曾有自然人及關係人皇銘實業列主要銷售對象。2024 年合併營收約 123.9 億元，主要受「皇翔MRT」等建案交屋入帳帶動，另有台汽北站等商用不動產出租、飯店與商辦資產作為租金與資產收益來源。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望重點在大台北都更、既有成屋與預售案銷售、商用不動產租金化，以及大型公辦都更案的中長期交屋貢獻。公司 2024 年報對 2025 年營建業看法為：受打炒房、信用管制、高利率與營建成本壓力影響，住宅推案趨保守，但剛性需求、公共建設、都市更新、危老改建、綠建築與智慧建築仍是支撐。2025 年公司規劃銷售成屋「皇翔幸薈」、「皇翔MRT」及其他餘屋，預售案包括「皇翔柏悅」、「皇翔柏金」與 Aster One；媒體報導指出「皇翔泱美」於 2026 年 3 月起陸續交屋入帳，敦北地上權辦公案與「皇翔柏悅」也將陸續完工交屋。2026 年公司表示今年主推板橋都更案「皇翔寶格利」，含地主分回戶總銷約 240 億元。更長期動能包括永和大陳公辦都更單元3，媒體報導總銷上看 300 億元、目標 2029 年完工交屋；單元4及其他都更案亦可能延伸 2028 年以後營收能見度。SOGO敦化館改建案目前仍在規劃中，短期不宜視為確定入帳來源。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制、房貸成數限縮、買氣觀望、推案與交屋時點波動、鋼筋水泥與工資上漲、碳費及 ESG 相關成本、都更整合與審議時程不確定、利率上升造成購屋負擔增加，以及公司近年短期金融資產操作對業外損益的波動。2027 至 2028 年的具體年度營收與獲利未見公司正式量化指引，因此僅能以建案時程、都更儲備案與租金資產推估方向，不宜視為確定預測。
Supply Chain
- 北昌營造股份有限公司 皇翔轉投資之營造公司，年報載明自 1997 年後工程發包多由北昌營造承作，以掌握施工品質、進度與成本；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
- 台灣動力工程股份有限公司 2024 年報揭露 2023 年曾為占進貨淨額 10% 以上之廠商，進貨金額 534,440 千元、占比 11%，關係為無；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
- 土地地主、土地仲介與政府標售單位 公司土地來源包括自地自建、公辦都更、合建分屋、危老重建、土地開發人員尋找、土地仲介介紹及政府公開標售；多非單一上市櫃公司。
- 營造承包商與建材供應商 公司營建工程採包工不包料或包工包料方式委託營造廠商及承包商，材料採比價或包工包料發包；年報未逐一揭露完整供應商名單。
- 自然人購屋客戶 住宅與住辦建案之主要終端買方，年報指出銷售對象以中產階級自用者及投資者為主，且因不動產銷售特性客戶分散。
- 皇銘實業股份有限公司 關係人，2023 年曾列占銷貨淨額 10% 以上客戶，銷貨金額 596,460 千元、占比 12%；同時為皇翔主要股東之一，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
- 商辦、店鋪與飯店租戶 下游客戶包含台汽北站、飯店、商辦及店鋪等租賃資產之承租公司或商家；公開資料未完整揭露租戶名單。
- 新聯陽實業股份有限公司 媒體報導永和大陳單元3已委由新聯陽實業代銷，屬房地產代銷通路與銷售合作方；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
Competitors
- 興富發建設股份有限公司 2542 台股上市建設公司，於住宅、商辦與大型開發案市場與皇翔存在競爭。
- 國泰建設股份有限公司 2501 台股上市大型建商，於大台北與全台住宅、商辦市場具品牌與土地開發競爭。
- 華固建設股份有限公司 2548 台股上市建商，產品包含住宅、商辦與廠辦，與皇翔在雙北精華地段推案具競爭關係。
- 長虹建設股份有限公司 5534 台股上櫃建商，深耕大台北住宅與商辦市場，屬區域型競爭者。
- 遠雄建設事業股份有限公司 5522 台股上市大型建商，於住宅、商辦與大型開發案市場與皇翔競爭。
- 潤泰創新國際股份有限公司 9945 台股上市公司，具不動產開發、商場及資產營運布局，部分區域與產品線可能與皇翔競爭。
- 冠德建設股份有限公司 2520 台股上市建商，深耕雙北捷運與都更周邊住宅、商辦開發，與皇翔具競爭關係。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.