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2597

潤弘 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 潤弘 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 54Quality 82Growth 65Momentum 67Chips 3

Is 潤弘 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 31th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -11.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.96
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦證券 holds 6,147 lots
  • sellers have 457 lots left, ~45 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 6,147 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 統一 peaked at 664 lots, has sold 33%, 444 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.87pp, mid holders -12, retail -2.00pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,458 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券元大證券群益金鼎臺銀玉山證券第一金
Distributing
統一新光-新竹兆豐證券凱基-城中港商麥格理高橋
Desks
own scale
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +6,147
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +5,339
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +2,433
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 臺銀 +1,673
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +1,185
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 第一金 +933
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 統一 444 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 新光-新竹 105 left
    sold 76%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐證券 177 left
    sold 41%· ~35 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-城中 51 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 港商麥格理 56 left
    sold 65%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 高橋 45 left
    sold 42%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -3,542
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,585
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -2,082
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -1,675
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 457 lots ~45 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +10,685 absorbed / -623 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -713 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

35 historical occurrences (since 2012-02-21)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 61.8%, Sample 34, Median +2.35%, Excess +1.68%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 34, Median +3.7%, Excess +5.23%, Beat mkt rate 55.9%；120-day: Win 78.8%, Sample 33, Median +10.81%, Excess +9.94%, Beat mkt rate 60.6%

120 days after: historical avg +18.68%

20-day +3.13%
60-day +8.59%
120-day +18.68%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.8%
70.6%
78.8%
Sample
34
34
33
Median
+2.35%
+3.7%
+10.81%
Excess
+1.68%
+5.23%
+9.94%
Beat mkt rate
52.9%
55.9%
60.6%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.68%, beat the market by 9.94 pts; win rate 78.8%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.33%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

70 historical occurrences (since 2010-04-12)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 69, Median +2.48%, Excess +3.09%, Beat mkt rate 55.1%；60-day: Win 78.3%, Sample 69, Median +7.82%, Excess +9.24%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 89.6%, Sample 67, Median +14.62%, Excess +16.95%, Beat mkt rate 68.7%

120 days after: historical avg +24.55%

20-day +4.46%
60-day +13.4%
120-day +24.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60.9%
78.3%
89.6%
Sample
69
69
67
Median
+2.48%
+7.82%
+14.62%
Excess
+3.09%
+9.24%
+16.95%
Beat mkt rate
55.1%
66.7%
68.7%

Over 67 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 24.55%, beat the market by 16.95 pts; win rate 89.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 563-5.4% +1.8% 55.6% -11.2%
20-40 356+23.7% +13.9% 86.2% +5.4%
40-60 777+56.9% +29.9% 82.8% +33.1%
60-80 597+40.1% +20.4% 94% +26.5%
80-100 You are here531+38.1% +38.3% 91% +18%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.15, at the 88.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.2%
Win rate 50% Excess -6.5%
438d
+23.3%
Win rate 71.8% Excess +9.9%
795d
Now
+19.5%
Win rate 88.1% Excess +10.4%
755d
60-day momentum down
+11.2%
Win rate 65.2% Excess +7.4%
388d
+14.5%
Win rate 70.2% Excess +6.1%
473d
+17.5%
Win rate 88.2% Excess +9.1%
93d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 755 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.5%, win rate 88.1%, beat the market by 10.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.9%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +4.7 pts on average.

What does 潤弘 do? Company profile

建材營造業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

2597 對應證券為潤弘精密工程事業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，ISIN 為 TW0002597002，上市日 2010/03/26，產業分類為建材營造業。公司前身為 1975 年設立之評輝營造，2006 年合併潤泰營建團隊中專職預鑄與機電的公司後更名為潤弘精密工程事業股份有限公司；總部位於台北市中山區八德路二段308號10樓。董事長為李志宏，總經理為莫惟瀚，發言人為曹昌盛。Goodinfo 顯示資本額 31.07 億元、發行股數 310,716,000 股；2025/12 法說摘要指出公司資本額提升至 31.07 億元，員工人數增至約 1,550 人，其中包含因應缺工增加的 675 名移工；2024 年報揭露截至 2025/03/20 公司及子公司員工合計 1,719 人。主要股東與董事持股以潤泰集團為核心，MarketScreener 及股務資料顯示潤泰創新國際持股約 39.14%，潤華染織、長春投資、宜泰投資等亦為主要持股人；董事法人股東包括潤泰創新國際、盈家投資、潤華染織、匯弘投資等。重要子公司包含潤泰精密材料股份有限公司，從事水泥製造、預拌混凝土等；公司亦持有潤德室內裝修設計工程及潤泰材等關係企業權益。

Business

潤弘為甲級營造廠與全方位營建整合服務商，主營建築及土木工程承攬、機電承裝、自來水承裝、冷凍空調工程、預鑄樑柱樓版外牆及各式預鑄房屋結構構件生產銷售、水泥與泥作牆面打底粉光材料、磁磚黏著劑、乾拌水泥砂漿生產、室內裝修設計、土木及預鑄工程規劃設計顧問與建材器材經銷代理進出口。2024 年報揭露 113 年度營收結構為工程合約收入 217.47 億元、占 82.89%；商品銷售收入 43.85 億元、占 16.71%；勞務合約收入 0.02%；其他合約收入 0.38%。公司商業模式以統包工程、總包工程及專業分包工程為主：統包工程結合潤泰集團設計團隊提供設計、施工、撥交一條龍服務；總包工程同時承攬土建與機電以降低工程界面問題；專業分包則聚焦預鑄外牆板、預鑄樑柱系統及高科技廠房無塵室預鑄格子版生產吊裝。主要應用包含住宅、辦公商業大樓、高科技廠房、大型商場、公共工程、社會住宅、學校及特殊建築。核心競爭力為精密預鑄工法、BIM、MRO 機電系統、ERP/SAP 專案管理、供應商與業主資訊平台、預鑄格子版、柱多螺箍筋、PCS 鋼骨預鑄複合構造及低碳混凝土。官方網站指出 1995 年公司於桃園楊梅創建混凝土預鑄工廠；2024 年報顯示截至 2024 年底團隊取得全球 20 國 779 件專利、累計獲獎 259 件。主要客戶與終端應用以國內營建工程為主，2025 法說摘要指出高科技廠辦為營收主力，2024 年占比約 58%，客戶包含美光、Google 等國際大廠及台灣在地高科技業；2025/12 法說摘要表示開發中案源約科技廠房 40%、專業預鑄 25-30%、母公司潤泰創新案 25-30%、其他公共工程與學校低於 10%。年報主要銷貨客戶以匿名 O 公司揭露，2024 年占銷貨淨額 17.38%，為關係人，推估為潤泰集團相關案源，但公開年報未揭露具名客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 展望偏正向但受產能、人力與工程認列節奏約束。成長動能包含：一、AI 與半導體產業擴產帶動高科技廠房、無塵室、機電與預鑄工程需求，法說摘要指出公司核心預鑄工法產能滿載，訂單能見度已達 2027 年；二、政府社宅與公共建築逐步導入預鑄工法，雖毛利較低且非主力，但可展示技術並帶來選擇性案源；三、營建缺工、少子化與工資上升使省工、省時、標準化、模組化預鑄工法相對有利；四、公司透過楊梅廠擴充、潤泰材投資德興預鑄廠、發展衛星廠支援樓梯等零組件，擴大中南部供應能力並降低運輸成本；五、AI 智慧營建導入智能估算、管線自動化設計、排程優化、訓練影片與知識傳承，搭配鋁模、系統模、磨地機器人等自動化施工，提高效率與降低人力依賴。2025/07 法說摘要指出截至 2025/05 未認列合約金額約 603 億元、開發中案量約 496 億元、截至 2025/06 新增訂單 223 億元；2025/12 法說摘要進一步指出截至 2025/10 在建工程合約總額約 1,300 億元、未認列 649 億元、開發中案量約 540 億元。2025 前三季合併營收 220.6 億元、稅後淨利 25.2 億元、EPS 7.25 元；Yahoo 月營收資料顯示 2025 全年累計營收 309.71 億元、年增 18.54%，UDN 報導 2025 稅後純益 33.4 億元、EPS 10.75 元、擬配現金股利 9.67 元。主要風險包含：預鑄產能瓶頸、人力與技術人才短缺、移工政策變動、鋼筋水泥混凝土與機電材料價格波動、工程進度與驗收認列遞延、公共工程毛利偏低與行政流程繁瑣、高科技客戶資本支出循環、台灣營造廠商眾多導致傳統工程競爭激烈、關係人案源與大型單一客戶集中度、施工安全與品質風險、碳費與低碳建材轉型成本。2028 前若 AI 伺服器、先進製程與記憶體供應鏈在台投資延續，潤弘的高科技廠房與專業預鑄需求可望維持高檔；若半導體擴廠放緩或產能擴充不及，營收增速與毛利率可能波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 東和鋼鐵 2006 年報列為鋼筋主要供應商；台股上市公司，供應鋼筋等營建鋼材。
  • 豐興鋼鐵 2015 年報列為鋼筋主要供應商；台股上市公司，供應鋼筋等營建鋼材。
  • 國產建材實業 2504 年報列為混凝土主要供應商；台股上市公司，供應預拌混凝土與建材。
  • 亞東預拌 年報列為混凝土主要供應商；非以此名稱於台股掛牌，可能屬亞泥集團預拌混凝土體系。
  • 建源工程 年報列為機電主要供應商；未查得台股上市櫃掛牌。
  • 永旭水電 年報列為機電主要供應商；未查得台股上市櫃掛牌。
  • 德興預鑄廠／德欣先進 法說摘要指出潤弘透過潤泰材投資作為中部第二生產基地與衛星產能；未查得台股上市櫃掛牌。
Downstream
  • 潤泰創新國際 9945 關係企業及重要案源；法說摘要指出開發中案量約 25-30% 來自母公司潤泰創新案，官方大事紀亦列多個潤泰創新建案。
  • 群聯電子 8299 官方大事紀列承攬群聯電子三期餐廳、廠房變更使用執照暨室內裝修工程及群聯電子創新館新建工程；台股上櫃公司。
  • 根基營造 2546 官方大事紀列承攬根基營造 T 案竹南 AP6B-FAB 預鑄工程；台股上市營造公司，兼具下游客戶與同業角色。
  • 美光 法說摘要列為高科技廠辦國際大廠客戶；美國上市公司 Micron Technology，非台股掛牌。
  • Google 法說摘要列為高科技廠辦國際大廠客戶；Alphabet 旗下公司，美國上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 全球人壽 2024 年報列全球人壽新總部大樓為持續施工中工地；未上市櫃。
  • 政府機關與社會住宅業主 公司選擇性承接公共工程、社會住宅、學校等；多為政府或公法人，不屬台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • 達欣工程 2535 台股上市營造公司，於大型建築、科技廠房與公共工程領域與潤弘競爭；市場文章亦常將其與潤弘、根基比較。
  • 根基營造 2546 台股上市營造公司，承攬科技廠房與大型工程，與潤弘同業競爭，同時可能在部分預鑄工程為客戶或合作方。
  • 中華工程 2515 台股上市大型營造公司，業務涵蓋公共工程、建築工程與土木工程。
  • 新建工程 2516 台股上市營造公司，競爭公共工程、民間建築及土木工程案源。
  • 國統國際 8936 台股上櫃工程與管線相關公司，部分公共工程與基礎建設領域具競爭或替代關係。
  • 互助營造 大型未上市營造公司，參與高科技廠房及公共工程，非台股上市櫃。
  • 大陸工程 大型未上市營造公司，承攬住宅、商辦、公共工程及基礎建設，非台股上市櫃。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.