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2615

萬海 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 萬海 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 85Quality 71Growth 68Momentum 32Chips 79

Is 萬海 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 79th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.7%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 3th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 26th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.62
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 18,296 lots
  • sellers have 6,653 lots left, ~67 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 18,296 lots since the start (sold 3%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 10,580 lots, has sold 66%, 3,633 left, ~13 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.10pp, mid holders +17, retail -1.23pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,485 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美林花旗環球美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀富邦證券
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利永豐金-匯立富邦-公益元大-基隆孝二國票證券陽信-石牌
Desks
own scale
元大證券元大-復北永豐金證券富邦-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +18,296
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 美林 +10,857
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +9,780
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +9,416
    sold 15%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +8,132
    sold 16%
  • 富邦證券 +5,004
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 3,633 left
    sold 66%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 1,875 left
    sold 27%· ~62 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-公益 115 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 元大-基隆孝二 445 left
    sold 38%· ~67 sessions to clear
  • 國票證券 431 left
    sold 26%· ~58 sessions to clear
  • 陽信-石牌 224 left
    sold 53%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -19,476
    unclassified
  • 元大-復北 -18,143
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -6,628
    unclassified
  • 富邦-台北 -2,672
    unclassified
Still selling 6,653 lots ~67 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +18,146 absorbed / -3,734 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.89%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

61 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.7%, Sample 60, Median +2.91%, Excess +4.77%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；60-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 60, Median +2.43%, Excess +15.36%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 60, Median +0.45%, Excess +30.64%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%

120 days after: historical avg +31.04%

20-day +5.79%
60-day +16.25%
120-day +31.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.7%
56.7%
50%
Sample
60
60
60
Median
+2.91%
+2.43%
+0.45%
Excess
+4.77%
+15.36%
+30.64%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
53.3%
48.3%

Over 60 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 31.04%, beat the market by 30.64 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 757+1.5% -6.2% 44.6% -26.7%
20-40 You are here673+181.3% +18.6% 68.1% +164.9%
40-60 506+99.9% +7.8% 56.9% +89.6%
60-80 386+60.9% +7.4% 65.3% +46.5%
80-100 303+12.7% +13.1% 82.8% 0%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 7.42, at the 25.6th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+29.7%
Win rate 45.6% Excess +18.8%
469d
+71.3%
Win rate 49.5% Excess +65.3%
624d
+14.8%
Win rate 66.4% Excess +7.8%
330d
60-day momentum down
+5.8%
Win rate 40.4% Excess -7.6%
835d
+5.3%
Win rate 51.4% Excess +0.1%
362d
+12.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +3.6%
125d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 469 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 29.7%, win rate 45.6%, beat the market by 18.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +29.47%, win rate 64%, beating the market by +24.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +18.43%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +14.45 pts on average.

What does 萬海 do? Company profile

航運業／貨櫃航運 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

萬海航運股份有限公司，股票代號2615，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非ETF、ETN或權證。公司成立於1965年2月24日，1996年5月16日上市，總部位於台北市中山區松江路136號10樓。董事長為久福花園股份有限公司，總經理為謝福隆，發言人為蘇麗梅。實收資本額約新台幣280.61億元，已發行普通股約28.06億股。公開資訊與財經資料顯示主要經營業務包含船舶運送、船務代理、船舶與貨櫃買賣、貨櫃集散站、船舶與貨櫃出租及貨物裝卸承攬等。員工規模依104人力銀行揭露約1,125人；此數字非年報口徑，僅作近似參考。主要股東與董監持股資料可見賴商怡春航運公司、勇誼股份有限公司、六和投資股份有限公司、財團法人勇源教育發展基金會、祥登建設股份有限公司、久福花園股份有限公司等；各來源揭露口徑與日期不同，持股比例需以公開資訊觀測站或公司最新股東名單為準。

Business

萬海為台灣前三大貨櫃航商之一，歷史上以亞洲近洋航線為核心，初期從事台灣、日本、東南亞間原木運輸，1976年起投入貨櫃輪服務。現主要收入來自貨櫃船舶運送，MoneyDJ整理之公司資料顯示2024年船舶運送約占營收97%，船舶及貨櫃出租約1%，船務代理約1%。航線涵蓋東北亞、中國大陸、香港、東南亞、印度、巴基斯坦、斯里蘭卡、孟加拉、中東、非洲、黑海、美洲等地，近洋線仍為基礎，並搭配美國線、南美線與印度／中東線。2025年第1季區域營收比重資料顯示亞洲航線約38%、中東與印度約25%、美國約26%、南美約11%。公司另經營或參與碼頭資產，包括高雄港、台中港、日本東京大井碼頭、台北港合資碼頭，以及越南蓋梅、海防、峴港等相關投資或合作。主要客戶與終端應用為全球進出口貨主、消費品、電子、汽車、家具、塑化與製造業供應鏈；MoneyDJ列示客戶或知名貨主包含奇美、台塑集團、IKEA、Honda、Toshiba、Samsung、Panasonic等，但個別客戶營收占比未見公開明細。萬海亦透過艙位互換、聯營航線及碼頭合作與ONE、長榮、陽明、COSCO、PIL、MOL等航商或港口營運商協作。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年萬海全年合併營收約新台幣1,403.53億元，年減13.25%；營業淨利約332.14億元，年減34.27%；歸屬母公司稅後淨利約314.65億元，EPS約11.21元，獲利雖較2024年下滑，但仍屬歷史高檔。2026至2028年的核心展望包括：第一，亞洲近洋航線仍是營運穩定器，公司管理層表示將深化亞洲布局並審慎經營中遠洋市場，以高密度航線與市占優勢降低遠洋運價波動。第二，美國線與中遠洋線受紅海危機、港口壅塞、船舶大型化造成周轉效率下降，以及閒置運力偏低等因素支撐，2026年北美長約價格與營運表現被公司管理層看得較2025年樂觀，但仍受美國關稅、需求週期與地緣政治影響。第三，船隊更新是主要成長動能，2026年預計接收6艘新船，包括7,000 TEU 2艘、8,700 TEU 4艘；2027至2030年預計再接收30艘新船，包括6,000 TEU 6艘、8,700 TEU 12艘、16,000 TEU大型船12艘，2026至2030年合計新增運力約38.1萬TEU。另2026年3月董事會通過再採購6艘節能新船，包括9,200 TEU甲醇雙燃料預備船2艘與6,000 TEU LNG雙燃料預備船4艘，並規劃出售3艘5,600 TEU船舶，若計入此計畫，自2026年起整體新增運力約40.7萬TEU。第四，節能減碳與船隊年輕化是中長期競爭力，既有船隊已有多艘配置岸電，新造船導入節能與環保設備，有助符合IMO減碳、港口岸電與客戶ESG要求。主要風險包括全球新船交付導致供給過剩、紅海與中東局勢若緩和使有效運力回流、港口壅塞變化、燃油價格波動、美中關稅與貿易政策、全球消費與製造景氣走弱、美元與利率變化、資本支出與負債管理壓力，以及大型航商聯盟調整造成競爭加劇。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣國際造船 2208 造船與新船供應商之一；MoneyDJ資料提及萬海船隻製造主要向台船下單，台船為台灣上市公司。
  • 台灣中油 船用燃油與能源供應鏈代表；台灣中油為國營事業、未上市。
  • HD現代三湖重工 韓國造船商，市場報導提及萬海部分新船由韓國船廠交付；非台股掛牌。
  • 日本造船與船舶設備供應商 萬海船隊包含日本船廠建造船舶與日本碼頭布局；相關供應商非台股掛牌或未逐一公開。
  • 港口與碼頭營運商 包含台灣港務公司、日本、越南與其他海外港口營運單位，提供靠泊、裝卸、堆場與碼頭服務；多數非台股掛牌或屬公營／海外公司。
  • 貨櫃、船舶設備與岸電設備供應商 提供貨櫃、節能設備、岸電與船舶零組件；個別供應商未完整公開，無法確認台股代號。
Downstream
  • 奇美實業 MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，屬未上市公司。
  • 台塑集團 MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一；為企業集團而非單一掛牌公司，旗下有台塑等上市公司，但未能確認直接交易主體。
  • IKEA MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，為海外家具與零售集團，非台股掛牌。
  • Honda MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，為日本上市汽車公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Toshiba MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，為日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • Samsung MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，為韓國上市集團，非台股掛牌。
  • Panasonic MoneyDJ列示之知名貨主／客戶之一，為日本上市企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 長榮海運 2603 台灣上市貨櫃航商，同時在部分航線、碼頭或艙位安排上可能為合作夥伴，也為競爭者。
  • 陽明海運 2609 台灣上市貨櫃航商，同時在台北港等碼頭投資或航線市場中有合作與競爭關係。
  • Ocean Network Express（ONE） 日本三大航商合資之貨櫃航運公司，萬海2026年規劃與ONE合作加開華中北至美西洛杉磯航線；非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 長榮海運 2603 台灣上市貨櫃航運龍頭，為萬海在亞洲、美洲及全球貨櫃航線的主要競爭者。
  • 陽明海運 2609 台灣上市貨櫃航商，與萬海同屬台灣貨櫃三雄，競爭美洲、亞洲與遠洋市場。
  • 台驊控股 2636 台灣上市物流承攬業者，非班輪航商，但在貨運承攬與供應鏈服務端與航商服務有部分替代或議價關係。
  • 中菲行 5609 台灣上櫃國際物流與貨運承攬公司，非班輪航商，但在海空運承攬與客戶物流解決方案上有間接競合。
  • MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company 全球大型貨櫃航商，瑞士／義大利背景，未上市，為全球遠洋航線競爭者。
  • Maersk 丹麥上市全球大型貨櫃航商，非台股掛牌。
  • CMA CGM 法國大型貨櫃航商，未上市，為全球航線主要競爭者。
  • COSCO Shipping／中遠海控 中國大型貨櫃航商，於上海與香港掛牌，非台股掛牌；部分航線亦可能與萬海有合作或艙位互換。
  • Hapag-Lloyd 德國上市大型貨櫃航商，非台股掛牌。
  • Ocean Network Express（ONE） 日本航商合資貨櫃公司，非台股掛牌；與萬海有航線合作，也在亞洲與美洲市場競爭。
  • HMM 韓國上市貨櫃航商，非台股掛牌。
  • SITC International／海豐國際 香港上市亞洲區內貨櫃航商，非台股掛牌，與萬海在亞洲近洋航線競爭。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.