Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2616 山隆. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2616

No install, open FinLab Studio

2616

山隆 Oil, Gas & Electricity As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 山隆 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 49Quality 9Growth 68Momentum 15Chips 60

Is 山隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 15th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -7.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.31
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 合庫證券 holds 204 lots
  • sellers have 456 lots left, ~180 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price 0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 合庫證券 has accumulated 204 lots since the start (sold 4%), holding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 321 lots, has sold 44%, 180 left, ~150 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -3.50pp, mid holders +0, retail +1.89pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,341 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
合庫證券國票-台中富邦-板橋臺銀-金山臺銀群益金鼎-永和
Distributing
國泰-敦南元大證券富邦-北港統一華南永昌-基隆台新證券
Desks
own scale
元大-敦化凱基-板橋第一金-中山兆豐-松德
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 合庫證券 +204
    sold 4%
  • 國票-台中 +156
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-板橋 +135
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 臺銀-金山 +97
    sold 0%
  • 臺銀 +95
    sold 17%
  • 群益金鼎-永和 +85
    sold 11%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 180 left
    sold 44%· ~150 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 44 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 富邦-北港 36 left
    sold 86%· ~180 sessions to clear
  • 統一 92 left
    sold 50%· ~92 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-基隆 37 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 108 left
    sold 28%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-敦化 -2,136
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 凱基-板橋 -731
    unclassified
  • 第一金-中山 -388
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-松德 -355
    unclassified
Still selling 456 lots ~180 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +592 absorbed / -98 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -17 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.27%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

45 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 62.1%, Sample 29, Median +1.05%, Excess -0.07%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；60-day: Win 69%, Sample 29, Median +4.23%, Excess +1.92%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；120-day: Win 72.4%, Sample 29, Median +2.98%, Excess +3.99%, Beat mkt rate 72.4%

120 days after: historical avg +2.85%

20-day +0.87%
60-day +2.92%
120-day +2.85%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.1%
69%
72.4%
Sample
29
29
29
Median
+1.05%
+4.23%
+2.98%
Excess
-0.07%
+1.92%
+3.99%
Beat mkt rate
51.7%
51.7%
72.4%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.85%, beat the market by 3.99 pts; win rate 72.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 261-0.6% -1% 33.7% -5%
20-40 120+8.8% +9.9% 58.3% -10.5%
40-60 364+16.7% +17.3% 84.3% +4.8%
60-80 733+11.9% +9.6% 76.1% -0.4%
80-100 You are here1173+4% +3.7% 64.5% -13.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 251.88, at the 98.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.5%
Win rate 41.2% Excess -3.5%
221d
+12.6%
Win rate 89% Excess +6.3%
429d
+3.1%
Win rate 60.8% Excess -3.1%
1106d
60-day momentum down
+1.2%
Win rate 63.9% Excess -6.1%
133d
+4.8%
Win rate 79.1% Excess +3.3%
139d
Now
-1.8%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -12.1%
742d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 742 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1.8%, win rate 56.9%, lagged the market by 12.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.36%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by -1 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

53 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.07%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by -4.14 pts on average.

What does 山隆 do? Company profile

油電燃氣業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2616 對應證券為山隆通運股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1976 年 4 月 6 日，上市日期為 1997 年 11 月 8 日，總部位於新北市板橋區民生路一段 1-2 號 1 樓，統一編號 33983853。實收資本額為新台幣 1,372,818,270 元，普通股發行股數 137,281,827 股。依公司官網與公開資料，截至本研究基準日附近資料，董事長為鄭人豪；2026 年 2 月 1 日起總經理為俞蘭輝，執行長為曾才宏。公司主要營運據點涵蓋總公司、加油站、運輸據點、倉儲物流與船務報關據點；2025 年股東會年報揭露截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日從業員工合計 1,074 人，2024 年底為 1,055 人。主要股東依公司官網 2025 年 4 月 20 日資料，包括正隆股份有限公司 9.24%、葉瓊妙 6.11%、山發股份有限公司 6.10%、山發營造股份有限公司 4.91%、鄭人銘 4.77%、正隆投資股份有限公司 3.55%、鄭人豪 3.15%、成貫投資股份有限公司 1.75%、山富貿易股份有限公司 1.39%、中國信託受山隆通運員工持股綜合信託專戶 1.11%。

Business

山隆為油品零售與陸運物流雙主軸公司。2024 年營業比重為加油站業務 80%、汽車運輸業 20%；2024 年合併營收為新台幣 108.42 億元，其中油品部門約 86.67 億元、運輸部門約 21.75 億元。主要產品與服務包括直營加油站汽柴油銷售、企業大宗用油、貨櫃運輸、散裝與平板運輸、危險物品與化學槽櫃承運、油運運輸、物流倉儲、船務報關、汽車修理、車輛代檢、洗車與環境檢測服務。商業模式上，油品事業向台灣中油與台塑石化採購汽柴油，透過全台加油站與企業會員、運輸車隊、一般消費者銷售；運輸事業則提供進出口貨櫃、島內平板與散裝、危險物品及物流倉儲一條龍服務，並以自有或協力車隊、調度系統、北中南據點與車輛維修能力支撐服務品質。2024 年主要供應商為台灣中油約占進貨淨額 76.45%、台塑石化約 23.55%；主要銷貨客戶中，正隆及其子公司等占 2024 年銷貨淨額 14.97%，其餘多為分散企業客戶與一般加油站客戶。公司在加油站業者營業額排名中長期位於前段班，2023 年排名第六；競爭優勢來自柴油與企業車隊客戶、全台油站網路、運輸與油品交叉服務、ISO/SQAS 等運輸安全與品質認證、以及油品與運輸管理系統導入。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以營運修復、數位化、油站智慧化、企業車隊客戶深化及物流效率提升為核心。2024 年公司因加油站硬體設備升級、部分站點階段性停機、客戶使用新系統適應期，以及運輸需求與固定成本壓力，營收年減 33.99%，稅後淨損 4.47 億元、EPS -3.43 元；2025 年公司月營收前段仍明顯低於 2024 年，但下半年年減幅收斂，2026 年 1 月營收年增 8.48%，TWSE 個股資訊顯示 2026 年 2 至 5 月分別為 529,123、770,562、774,790、831,697 仟元，代表修復動能仍需逐月觀察。成長動能包括：1. 智慧型加油機、半自助或自助加油站、自助洗車機、企業會員管理系統、山隆 Pay、車辨系統與預儲會員體系可降低人力成本並提高企業車隊黏著度；2. TMS 運輸管理系統、ERP、BI/Data Lake、RPA、電子簽核與 IAM 等數位化投資可改善調度、路徑、成本與資安；3. 船務、倉儲、物流、報關與油品供應一條龍服務有助爭取大型集團客戶；4. 企業用柴油與運輸同業用油仍是相對穩定需求；5. 資產活化、汰換高維修車輛與閒置設備，有機會改善固定成本與資產報酬。中長期產業趨勢方面，台灣加油站數量約 2,500 站上下，市場成熟且競爭激烈，租金、人力、土地取得與促銷成本上升；但電動車、2040 年台灣禁售燃油車政策方向、淨零減碳與新能源物流也迫使加油站轉型為多元能源、會員服務、洗車與車隊管理平台。主要風險包括油價波動造成存貨跌價或售油利差波動、設備升級期間營收中斷、企業客戶景氣循環、運輸車隊稼動率不足、勞動力短缺、加油站租金與續租壓力、資本支出回收不如預期、電動車滲透率提升造成燃油需求長期下降、資安風險，以及 2025 年董事長遭檢調搜索調查事件帶來的公司治理與投資人信心風險；公司公告稱營運正常且事件對財務業務無重大影響，但司法結果與後續治理改善仍需追蹤。2026 至 2028 年具體財務數字公司未公開，以上屬根據公司計畫、產業趨勢與公開月營收之合理推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 主要油品供應商，2024 年占山隆進貨淨額約 76.45%；為未上市國營事業，提供汽車加油站供貨聯盟契約。
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 主要油品供應商，2024 年占山隆進貨淨額約 23.55%；與山隆簽訂加油站油品買賣合約。
  • 車輛、輪胎、保修與融資服務供應商 年報提及公司將針對供應鏈端車輛、柴油、保修、輪胎、融資等周邊需求創造循環效益；未揭露單一主要台股供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 正隆股份有限公司及其子公司 1904 2024 年主要銷貨客戶，正隆及其子公司等占山隆銷貨淨額約 14.97%；正隆亦為山隆法人董事及最大股東。
  • 中隆國際股份有限公司 2024 年銷貨客戶之一，占銷貨淨額約 0.23%；年報列為實質關係人，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 傑隆交通股份有限公司 2024 年銷貨客戶之一，占銷貨淨額約 0.05%；年報列為實質關係人，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 企業車隊、運輸同業、進出口貨主與一般加油站消費者 公司主要下游客群，使用企業大宗用油、貨櫃與散裝運輸、危險物品承運、倉儲物流、船務報關、洗車與加油服務；多數未具名或非台股掛牌。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.