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2881

富邦金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 富邦金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 56Quality 84Growth 95Momentum 84Chips 90

Is 富邦金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 41th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 93th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 155.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.31
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 39,769 lots
  • sellers have 189,371 lots left, ~58 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +43% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 39,769 lots since the start (sold 9%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 108,986 lots, has sold 35%, 70,748 left, ~22 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.75pp, mid holders -12, retail -0.67pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12,077 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通群益金鼎台新-台北國票-敦北法人港商野村宏遠證券
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利美林新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北花旗環球
Desks
own scale
永豐金證券凱基富邦證券華南永昌
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +39,769
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +35,625
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 台新-台北 +20,682
    sold 22%
  • 國票-敦北法人 +10,908
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +8,887
    sold 24%
  • 宏遠證券 +7,881
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 70,748 left
    sold 35%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 67,140 left
    sold 29%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 美林 33,275 left
    sold 33%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 7,300 left
    sold 73%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 9,894 left
    sold 59%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 2,371 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金證券 -45,355
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -34,290
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -22,483
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -16,688
    unclassified
Still selling 189,371 lots ~58 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +153,541 absorbed / -99,580 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -10,591 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-06)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 51.1%, Sample 47, Median +0.39%, Excess +0.55%, Beat mkt rate 53.2%；60-day: Win 59.6%, Sample 47, Median +2.72%, Excess +1.99%, Beat mkt rate 46.8%；120-day: Win 61.7%, Sample 47, Median +4.99%, Excess +2.54%, Beat mkt rate 51.1%

120 days after: historical avg +8.59%

20-day +0.98%
60-day +3.57%
120-day +8.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.1%
59.6%
61.7%
Sample
47
47
47
Median
+0.39%
+2.72%
+4.99%
Excess
+0.55%
+1.99%
+2.54%
Beat mkt rate
53.2%
46.8%
51.1%

Over 47 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.59%, beat the market by 2.54 pts; win rate 61.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 155.02%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

85 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.2%, Sample 80, Median +0.19%, Excess -1.1%, Beat mkt rate 45%；60-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 80, Median +2.36%, Excess -1.36%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 62%, Sample 79, Median +6.07%, Excess -1.33%, Beat mkt rate 41.8%

120 days after: historical avg +8.55%

20-day +0.2%
60-day +4.24%
120-day +8.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.2%
62.5%
62%
Sample
80
80
79
Median
+0.19%
+2.36%
+6.07%
Excess
-1.1%
-1.36%
-1.33%
Beat mkt rate
45%
46.2%
41.8%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.55%, lagged the market by 1.33 pts; win rate 62%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1139+18.6% +7.8% 56.7% +4.3%
20-40 803+11.6% +11.7% 75% -5.7%
40-60 480+9.8% +6.1% 82.3% -3.4%
60-80 190+8.2% +6.4% 83.2% -9.6%
80-100 You are here405+34.1% +32.9% 98.8% +10.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.64, at the 93.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+11%
Win rate 65.8% Excess +5.1%
889d
+3.6%
Win rate 64.5% Excess -4.9%
758d
Now
+15.5%
Win rate 86.8% Excess +5.1%
455d
60-day momentum down
+4.6%
Win rate 63.6% Excess -5.1%
772d
+8.5%
Win rate 84% Excess +0.2%
225d
+14.1%
Win rate 100% Excess -0.3%
38d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 455 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.5%, win rate 86.8%, beat the market by 5.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.75%, win rate 64.8%, beating the market by -0.08 pts on average.

What does 富邦金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股公司業 臺灣證券交易所（TWSE）上市

Overview

2881 對應證券為富邦金融控股股份有限公司普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證；其甲、乙、丙種特別股另以 2881A、2881B、2881C 掛牌。富邦金控成立與上市日期均為 2001/12/19，主要經營業務為金融控股公司業，總部地址為臺北市中山區遼寧街179號15樓、16樓。董事長為蔡明興，總經理兼發言人為韓蔚廷。依富邦金控投資人關係資料，基準日 2026/04/14 資本總額為新臺幣2,000億元，實收資本總額為新臺幣156,073,549,520元；普通股發行股數14,007,364,952股，另有甲種特別股600,000,000股、乙種特別股666,660,000股、丙種特別股333,330,000股。主要股東（普通股，2026/04/14）包括臺北市政府13.07%、明東實業8.34%、道盈實業7.62%、群益台灣精選高息ETF基金3.50%、蔡明興3.15%、國泰台灣ESG永續高股息ETF專戶2.94%、蔡明忠約2.89%。依 2025 年報員工資料彙總，金控本體與主要子公司 2025 年員工約40,141人（含富邦人壽內外勤21,947人、台北富邦銀行9,574人、富邦證券2,665人、富邦產險2,900人、富邦銀行香港885人、富邦華一銀行1,110人、富邦投信297人等；不同統計口徑可能與外部資料略有差異）。截至2025年底，富邦金控總資產達12兆8,755億元，為台灣總資產第二大、市值第一大金融控股公司；2025年稅後淨利1,209.44億元，EPS 8.37元，連續17年為台灣金控業每股盈餘獲利王。

Business

富邦金控為綜合型金融控股公司，旗下主要子公司包括富邦人壽、台北富邦銀行、富邦銀行（香港）、富邦華一銀行、富邦產險、富邦證券、富邦投信等，產品與服務涵蓋人壽保險、財產保險、銀行授信與存款、信用卡、財富管理、證券經紀與承銷、自營與債券、資產管理、投信基金、創投與保代等。2025年度收益結構約為：富邦人壽1,032.20億元、占67%；台北富邦銀行303.06億元、占20%；富邦證券100.17億元、占6%；富邦產險30.93億元、占2%；富邦銀行（香港）39.08億元、占3%；富邦投信8.66億元、占1%；其他子公司及權益法投資21.77億元、占1%；利息收入與其他非利息淨收益合計約6.08億元；收益合計1,541.95億元。富邦人壽主要銷售壽險、健康險、傷害險、年金險，2025年總保費3,674.46億元，其中壽險72%、健康險15%、傷害險2%、年金險11%。台北富邦銀行提供存放款、財管、信用卡、法人金融、跨境金融與數位金融服務。富邦證券提供台股與海外股經紀、融資、借券、期權IB、財管、海外債、結構型商品、權證與ETF造市、台幣債券承銷、IPO/SPO承銷、股務代理與法人研究服務。富邦產險從事車險、火險、責任險、工程險、傷健險、旅平險及企業保險，2025年簽單保費676.7億元、市占率23.7%，連續44年產險市場龍頭。富邦投信經營證券投信、全權委託、投顧、期貨信託與ETF業務，2025年9月資產管理規模突破新臺幣一兆元。商業模式以保險保費與投資收益、銀行利差與手續費、證券交易與承銷收入、資產管理費、跨售與集團生態圈綜效為核心；主要客戶包括個人保戶、存款戶與投資人、高資產客戶、中小企業、大型企業、機構法人、台商與跨境金融客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年富邦金受惠台灣AI供應鏈帶動出口、股市熱絡、子公司營運擴張與日盛金控併購綜效，稅後淨利1,209.44億元，主要獲利來源為富邦人壽與台北富邦銀行；台北富邦銀行、富邦證券、富邦產險、富邦銀行（香港）、富邦華一銀行及富邦投信2025年獲利均創歷史新高。2026年正式接軌IFRS 17與IFRS 9，壽險與產險FVOCI權益工具處分損益不再列入當期損益，富邦金開始強調「調整後獲利」作為觀察經營績效與配息來源的重要指標；2026年第一季稅後淨利335.5億元、EPS 2.40元，調整後獲利663.5億元、調整後EPS 4.74元，前4月稅後淨利720.8億元、調整後獲利1,214.6億元。成長動能方面：富邦人壽將聚焦高CSM、高保障、分期繳、健康與意外險、外幣及高資產客戶商品，並運用台北富邦銀行等通路提升自有通路貢獻；截至2026年第一季CSM餘額4,147億元，季增2.8%。台北富邦銀行將擴大客群基盤、分眾經營、財富管理、海外輻射市場、信用卡跨售、數位金融與AI應用，並已布局韓國辦事處、雪梨分行升格、東京及印度分行籌備等跨境服務。富邦證券將以富邦AI PRO、財富管理轉型、量化與高頻交易、ETF造市、債券承銷、投行優質案件延續成長。富邦產險將拓展中小企業業務、場景碎片型保險、資安保險、旅遊與健康服務、損防技術、綠能與再保資源，並以海外產險子公司及再保布局擴張。富邦投信將受惠亞洲資產管理中心政策、主動式ETF、TISA級別基金、多重資產基金、日盛投信併入後外部通路擴張與大中華資產管理平台。2027至2028年展望屬中長期推估：若亞洲資產管理中心、IFRS 17後商品轉型、財管與ETF需求、AI與數位金融、跨境金融、海外據點布局、金金併整合綜效延續，富邦金可望維持大型金控規模優勢與多引擎獲利結構；但壽險資本、匯率、利率、股債市波動、TIS/ICS資本要求、地緣政治、美國關稅與全球貿易政策、房市與授信管制、產險天災與巨災損失、金融科技與資安風險、金融業價格競爭與人才競爭，均為主要挑戰。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶、保戶、投資人與資本市場資金提供者 金融控股業的主要資金來源；包括銀行存款、保險保費、債券與股權資本市場資金，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 國際再保險人與再保市場 富邦產險企業保險、巨災、綠能與新興風險商品需搭配再保資源分散風險；多為海外或未上市金融機構，未能逐一確認台股代號。
  • 臺灣證券交易所 富邦證券經紀、承銷、ETF造市及上市證券交易的市場基礎設施；交易所本身非上市櫃公司。
  • 證券櫃檯買賣中心 富邦證券上櫃、興櫃、債券與承銷業務的重要市場基礎設施；非上市櫃公司。
  • 金融監督管理委員會及相關金融監理制度 金融控股、銀行、保險、證券、投信業務高度受監理規範影響；非企業主體。
Downstream
  • 個人金融客戶、保戶、投資人與高資產客戶 使用壽險、產險、銀行、信用卡、基金、證券交易、海外債、財富管理與數位金融服務；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 企業與中小企業客戶 使用授信、現金管理、跨境金融、企業保險、資安保險、債券承銷、IPO/SPO、財務顧問與員工福利等服務；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 台灣大哥大股份有限公司 3045 富邦集團關係企業；與富邦產險合作資安風險服務，亦與集團金融、通訊、電商生態圈形成跨售與場景金融合作。
  • 富邦媒體科技股份有限公司 8454 富邦集團關係企業，momo平台可作為信用卡、支付、保險與場景金融合作通路；富邦金年報提及momo卡及場景保險合作。
  • 星宇航空股份有限公司 2646 富邦產險曾與星宇航空等業者合作推出創新型保險網路投保服務，屬場景保險通路之一。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.