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2886

兆豐金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 兆豐金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 63Quality 77Growth 70Momentum 63Chips 5

Is 兆豐金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~96% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 39th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 25.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.51
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台新-台北 holds 53,375 lots
  • sellers have 61,394 lots left, ~104 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台新-台北 has accumulated 53,375 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 85,772 lots, has sold 35%, 55,986 left, ~29 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.82pp, mid holders -7, retail -0.85pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -27,537 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新-台北凱基國泰證券港商麥格理永豐金證券港商野村
Distributing
美商高盛摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北玉山證券
Desks
own scale
中國信託(牛牛牛)亞證券群益金鼎宏遠-館前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台新-台北 +53,375
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基 +37,425
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +23,687
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +22,308
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +15,508
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +13,733
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 55,986 left
    sold 35%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 29,733 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 41,662 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 14,354 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 8,990 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 玉山證券 4,482 left
    sold 45%· ~20 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 中國信託 -33,423
    unclassified
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 -25,354
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -16,441
    unclassified
  • 宏遠-館前 -15,813
    unclassified
Still selling 61,394 lots ~104 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +93,698 absorbed / -22,257 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -18,558 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

43 historical occurrences (since 2008-04-28)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 42, Median +1.19%, Excess +0.56%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；60-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 42, Median +2.52%, Excess +0.73%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；120-day: Win 69%, Sample 42, Median +2.52%, Excess -0.12%, Beat mkt rate 54.8%

120 days after: historical avg +1.73%

20-day +0.89%
60-day +0.99%
120-day +1.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.9%
64.3%
69%
Sample
42
42
42
Median
+1.19%
+2.52%
+2.52%
Excess
+0.56%
+0.73%
-0.12%
Beat mkt rate
47.6%
52.4%
54.8%

Over 42 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.73%, lagged the market by 0.12 pts; win rate 69%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 25.55%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.1%, Sample 64, Median +0.32%, Excess -0.09%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；60-day: Win 70.3%, Sample 64, Median +3.61%, Excess -0.05%, Beat mkt rate 48.4%；120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 63, Median +6.42%, Excess -0.67%, Beat mkt rate 58.7%

120 days after: historical avg +5.32%

20-day +0.25%
60-day +3.54%
120-day +5.32%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.1%
70.3%
71.4%
Sample
64
64
63
Median
+0.32%
+3.61%
+6.42%
Excess
-0.09%
-0.05%
-0.67%
Beat mkt rate
43.8%
48.4%
58.7%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.32%, lagged the market by 0.67 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 513+3.2% +1.9% 55.8% -4.1%
20-40 383+10.7% +10.9% 94.8% +0.7%
40-60 319+12.2% +12% 96.6% -3.6%
60-80 667+11.9% +10% 98.1% -8.4%
80-100 You are here1140+12% +10.9% 83.6% -8.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.33, at the 84.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
0%
Win rate 62% Excess -3.7%
416d
+4.6%
Win rate 72.6% Excess -1.6%
343d
Now
+4.7%
Win rate 74.2% Excess -4.2%
1370d
60-day momentum down
+7.8%
Win rate 82.3% Excess +3.6%
401d
+12%
Win rate 98.7% Excess -1%
153d
+6.3%
Win rate 71.2% Excess -8.9%
459d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1370 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.7%, win rate 74.2%, lagged the market by 4.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

75 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.08%, win rate 67.6%, beating the market by -2.04 pts on average.

What does 兆豐金 do? Company profile

金融業／金控業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2886 對應證券為兆豐金，係台灣證券交易所上市普通股，並非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司前身為交銀金融控股，成立於 2002 年 2 月 4 日，2003 年 1 月 1 日更名為兆豐金融控股股份有限公司；掛牌日期為 2002 年 2 月 4 日。總部位於臺北市中正區忠孝東路二段 123 號 14 至 17 樓、20 至 21 樓。董事長為董瑞斌，總經理為張傳章。公司登記資本額新臺幣 2,200 億元，實收資本額約新臺幣 1,483.33 億元，已發行普通股 14,833,378,282 股。2025 年年報揭露，集團 2025 年底從業員工合計 9,866 人，2026 年 3 月底為 9,811 人。主要股東依 2025 年年報包括財政部 8.20%、行政院國家發展基金管理會 6.19%、中華郵政 3.59%、臺灣銀行 2.62%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管元大台灣高股息基金專戶 2.60%、國泰人壽 2.23%、新制勞工退休基金 1.96%、台新銀行受託保管國泰台灣 ESG 永續高股息 ETF 專戶 1.78%、南山人壽 1.61%、中國信託商業銀行受託保管元大台灣卓越 50 基金專戶 1.53%。公司持有兆豐銀行、兆豐證券、兆豐票券、兆豐產險、兆豐資產管理、兆豐投信及兆豐創投等七家主要子公司，年報列示上述主要子公司多為 100% 持股。2025 年合併稅後淨利為新臺幣 350.38 億元，EPS 2.36 元，創歷史新高；2026 年第一季稅後淨利 93.97 億元、EPS 0.63 元，2026 年前四月累計稅後淨利 142.54 億元，年增 40%。

Business

兆豐金本體依金融控股公司法以投資及管理被投資事業為限，2025 年本體收益中採權益法認列投資收益約新臺幣 346.96 億元，占 99.56%，其他營業收入占 0.45%，因此實質營運來自銀行、證券、票券、產險、投信、資產管理與創投子公司。兆豐銀行是集團核心，業務包括企業金融、專案融資、聯貸、中小企業貸款、永續金融貸款、消費金融、房貸、財富管理、私人銀行、信託、信用卡、存款、外匯、進出口、國庫代理、資金調度、外匯交易、有價證券投資、衍生性金融商品與數位金融。2025 年兆豐銀行淨收益約新臺幣 672.72 億元，其中利息淨收益占 56.17%，利息以外淨收益占 43.83%；非利息項目中手續費淨收益占 13.11%，金融資產及負債評價與交易損益占 22.00%，兌換損益占 3.97%。兆豐證券業務包括經紀、自營、承銷、融資融券、複委託、期貨輔助及信託等，2025 年收益約新臺幣 78.77 億元，經紀業務占 68.34%、自營 17.55%、承銷 11.40%。兆豐票券從事短期票券承銷、經紀、自營、商業本票保證、債券與固定收益投資，2025 年總收入約新臺幣 97.55 億元，票券業務占 54.13%、債券業務占 41.57%。兆豐產險提供火災、貨運、船舶、汽車、航空、工程、傷害、健康與再保等財產保險，2025 年總保費收入約新臺幣 122.26 億元，汽車保險、火災保險、關島保費收入、傷害保險與工程保險為主要項目。兆豐投信以公募基金、私募基金與全權委託為主，2025 年收入中公募基金占 97.92%。兆豐資產管理以金融機構金錢債權服務與不動產相關業務為主，2025 年服務收入占 88.12%。兆豐創投提供直接投資與企業管理諮詢。主要客戶包括大型企業、進出口商、台商供應鏈企業、中小企業、政府與公營機構、機構法人、高資產客戶、一般個人存放款與投資理財客戶；年報未揭露單一重大客戶名單。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年至 2028 年展望以穩健成長、收益多元化、海外與財富管理擴張為主軸。2025 年已實現的基礎包括全年獲利創高、銀行淨利息收益維持基本盤、股市與財管需求支撐手續費收入、證券與票券等非銀子公司貢獻提高。2026 年第一季法說資訊顯示，成長動能轉向多元化，手續費收入、交易收益與非銀子公司獲利改善，非銀貢獻度提高；管理層指出將以財富管理與手續費業務為中長期成長重點，配合臺灣推動亞洲資產管理中心政策，並評估在新加坡、香港深化私人銀行與高階財管業務。跨境企業金融方面，兆豐金將優先配合台商供應鏈重組，強化香港、越南、泰國及 OBU 平台，鎖定 AI、半導體與全球供應鏈重整相關融資、外匯、聯貸及財務管理需求。數位與技術面，年報載明銀行子公司將推動 AI 治理、資料與應用中台、API 異業結盟、Fast-ID、AIO 分行平台、OMO 服務、企業客戶電子化文件與 ESG 風險儀表板；證券子公司規劃複委託融資、FCN、LSN、規劃型信託、智能理財與量化交易策略；投信子公司規劃主動式 ETF 與多重資產基金。至 2027 至 2028 年，若利率環境緩步下行，淨利差可能承壓，但債券評價、財富管理、海外授信與資本市場業務可望部分抵銷；若 AI 與半導體資本支出、台商海外布局與亞洲財管政策延續，兆豐金的企金、外匯、聯貸與跨境金融優勢仍有延伸空間。主要風險包括美國及全球利率路徑不確定、匯率波動、台股與債市修正造成投資及交易收益波動、房市與授信品質變化、海外曝險與地緣政治、川普關稅與供應鏈政策不確定性、資安與詐欺風險、法遵及洗錢防制成本上升、金控同業併購後規模競爭加劇。2027 至 2028 年內容屬依公司策略與產業趨勢推估，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 財政部 主要股東與公股背景來源之一，2025 年年報列示持股 8.20%；非上市櫃公司。
  • 行政院國家發展基金管理會 主要股東，2025 年年報列示持股 6.19%；屬政府基金管理機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 中華郵政股份有限公司 主要股東，2025 年年報列示持股 3.59%，亦為金融市場資金與存款體系重要參與者；未上市。
  • 臺灣銀行股份有限公司 主要股東之一，2025 年年報列示持股 2.62%；屬臺灣金控旗下公股銀行，未上市。
  • 存款戶、債券投資人與金融市場交易對手 兆豐銀行、兆豐票券與金控公司債之資金來源及交易對手；多數非單一可揭露上市櫃公司。
  • 金融科技、資訊系統、資料庫與資安市場供應商 支援銀行核心系統、AI、Fast-ID、AIO、投信資料庫、資安與數位通路建置；年報未完整揭露供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 企業金融與台商供應鏈客戶 下游客戶包含大型企業、進出口商、中小企業、AI／半導體與全球供應鏈重組相關企業；公司未揭露個別主要客戶名單。
  • 個人金融、房貸、信用卡與財富管理客戶 兆豐銀行消金、信託、基金、債券、保險代理與私人銀行服務對象；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 證券經紀、承銷、複委託與機構法人客戶 兆豐證券之投資人、企業籌資客戶與法人客戶；個別客戶未公開揭露。
  • 票券、債券與短期資金市場客戶 兆豐票券提供商業本票保證、票券承銷交易、債券自營與固定收益服務之企業及金融機構。
  • 產險保戶與再保市場客戶 兆豐產險服務火災、汽車、貨運、船舶、工程、傷害、健康及關島保險客戶。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.