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3026

禾伸堂 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 禾伸堂 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 14Quality 76Growth 66Momentum 100Chips 40

Is 禾伸堂 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.5%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 91th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 21.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.80
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦證券 holds 4,780 lots
  • sellers have 2,498 lots left, ~74 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +722% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 4,780 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 3,177 lots, has sold 72%, 874 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +15.27pp, mid holders +22, retail -18.71pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -247 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券國泰證券永豐金證券元大證券統一凱基
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛凱基-信義摩根大通凱基-台北港商野村
Desks
own scale
康和-內湖兆豐-南京凱基-台南花旗環球
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +4,780
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +3,858
    sold 11%
  • 永豐金證券 +3,486
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +3,301
    sold 9%
  • 統一 +3,027
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 凱基 +2,536
    sold 7%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 874 left
    sold 72%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 945 left
    sold 70%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-信義 1,096 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 759 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 1,134 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 751 left
    sold 51%· paused recently

Desks

  • 康和-內湖 -1,922
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-南京 -1,743
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台南 -1,574
    unclassified
  • 花旗環球 -1,200
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 2,498 lots ~74 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +6,380 absorbed / -2,187 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -121 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-31)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 30, Median -0.01%, Excess +3.78%, Beat mkt rate 36.7%；60-day: Win 70%, Sample 30, Median +3.49%, Excess +34.42%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；120-day: Win 60.7%, Sample 28, Median +8.51%, Excess +10.58%, Beat mkt rate 46.4%

120 days after: historical avg +18.56%

20-day +5.28%
60-day +40.14%
120-day +18.56%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
70%
60.7%
Sample
30
30
28
Median
-0.01%
+3.49%
+8.51%
Excess
+3.78%
+34.42%
+10.58%
Beat mkt rate
36.7%
46.7%
46.4%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.56%, beat the market by 10.58 pts; win rate 60.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 21.34%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

38 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 32, Median +0.03%, Excess +2.36%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 31, Median -1.65%, Excess +2.74%, Beat mkt rate 35.5%；120-day: Win 40%, Sample 30, Median -3.45%, Excess -10.2%, Beat mkt rate 26.7%

120 days after: historical avg -6.52%

20-day +2.37%
60-day +5.37%
120-day -6.52%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
48.4%
40%
Sample
32
31
30
Median
+0.03%
-1.65%
-3.45%
Excess
+2.36%
+2.74%
-10.2%
Beat mkt rate
50%
35.5%
26.7%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 6.52%, lagged the market by 10.2 pts; win rate 40%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 854+0.1% -4.6% 44.1% -4.7%
20-40 249+8.5% +8.3% 80.3% -6.4%
40-60 385+67% +21.4% 87.3% +39.4%
60-80 426+8.7% +3.2% 60.6% -18.6%
80-100 You are here1097+53% +17.9% 73.5% +34.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 115.46, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-3.7%
Win rate 35.8% Excess -4.5%
397d
+11%
Win rate 79.9% Excess -0.8%
432d
Now
+33.7%
Win rate 64.5% Excess +23.9%
1086d
60-day momentum down
+0.8%
Win rate 55.6% Excess -2.2%
655d
+12.2%
Win rate 84.2% Excess -5.2%
146d
+15.1%
Win rate 61.7% Excess +0.7%
415d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1086 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 33.7%, win rate 64.5%, beat the market by 23.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.18%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +1.78 pts on average.

What does 禾伸堂 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件、主動元件代理、系統模組與電源／週邊／消費電子元件通路 上市；臺灣證券交易所

Overview

禾伸堂企業股份有限公司為上市普通股，代號3026。公司成立於1981年6月1日，總部位於台北市內湖區環山路二段62號1樓；董事長兼總經理為唐錦榮。公開資料顯示公司上市掛牌日多數資訊源列為2002年8月26日，Goodinfo頁面則列掛牌日2000年1月13日，兩者有差異，故以公開資訊觀測站/Yahoo/鉅亨資料的2002年8月26日作為主要口徑並在notes標示。2026年3月法說會資料揭露資本額約新台幣16.59億元，母公司截至2025年12月31日人力數994人；工廠位於桃園龍潭、宜蘭利澤與日本北海道，營業據點涵蓋台灣、中國、香港、日本、新加坡、英國與美國。公司2025年合併營收新台幣134.27億元，年增5%；毛利率18.8%，營業淨利10.78億元，歸屬母公司淨利10.92億元，EPS 6.58元。2026年前五月合併營收新台幣63.37億元，年增12.27%。主要股東名單截至2025年3月30日包含隆格投資4.78%、羚田投資4.56%、唐錦榮3.54%、方晧投資2.37%、楊順天1.96%、羅一國際1.51%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數基金1.17%、正雅投資1.07%、林美玉1.05%、摩根大通受託保管Vanguard新興市場股票指數基金0.97%。公司董事會第十六屆9席，其中獨立董事4席。

Business

禾伸堂是兼具自製被動元件與電子元件代理通路的公司。自有產品核心為MLCC積層陶瓷電容與陶瓷基板金屬化加工，Longtan龍潭廠自1999年起生產自有品牌MLCC，並以客製化產品銷售全球；公司同時代理半導體、電源、週邊與消費電子零組件。2025年產品營收占比依公司法說會資料為被動元件42%、其他23%、主動元件21%、系統模組14%；2024年則約為被動元件39%、主動元件22%、系統模組17%、其他22%。主要產品與解決方案包含高壓高容MLCC、低損耗高壓NP0 MLCC、X7S/X8M高壓高溫MLCC、厚膜/薄膜產品、記憶體與IC代理、觸控IC、感測器、電源元件、週邊元件與消費電子元件；應用包含AI伺服器電源、BBU、CBU、主機板、電源供應器、PoE、交換式電源、電池管理系統、LED照明、觸控LCD模組、車用電子、新能源、工控、網通與消費電子。商業模式分為兩塊：一是自製MLCC與利基型被動元件，透過自有品牌與客製化規格切入高階電源、車用與AI伺服器供應鏈；二是代理世界級主動/週邊/電源/消費元件，提供客戶整體解決方案與多樣零組件。公司2025年區域營收結構以中國約63%、台灣約19%、其他約16%、美國約2%為主，顯示銷售仍高度集中於大中華電子製造與通路體系。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028展望重點在AI伺服器電源架構升級帶來的高階MLCC需求。公司2026年3月法說會指出，AI Server Power為核心發展主軸；隨AI Server Power朝800V HVDC、LLC諧振電路與第三代半導體高效率電源演進，客製化、低損耗、高壓、高容NP0 MLCC，以及高壓高容X7S、高溫X8M MLCC成為必要核心元件。公司資料顯示，AI伺服器電源中單一機櫃MLCC用量可由A100世代約800-1000顆，提升至H100/H200約1800-2000顆，GB200/GB300/Vera Rubin世代約3000-5000顆；公司並標示自身已切入高階AI Server Power供應鏈。2026年前五月營收年增12.27%，反映AI與高階電源需求已有貢獻。2026年5月股東會新聞報導指出，董事長表示MLCC交期已拉長至20多周，預期今年底新增二至三成產能、2027年產能再提升三至四成；另有報導稱公司啟動第二個四年30億元資本計畫，聚焦台灣與日本擴充AI電源MLCC產能，但此屬媒體整理與法說會延伸，精確資本支出時程仍需以公司公告為準。2027-2028年潛在動能包括Vera Rubin/Rubin Ultra平台、AI伺服器BBU/CBU、CSP資料中心電力升級、人形機器人關節與新能源/車用高壓電源；公司法說會引用產業資料，AI伺服器市場2025-2030年CAGR約38.7%、人形機器人市場CAGR約87.9%，但此為外部研究機構預測，不等同公司財測。主要風險包括：AI伺服器出貨節奏與CSP資本支出變化、客戶與終端應用集中、MLCC景氣循環與價格波動、日系與台系同業擴產競爭、設備交期與良率爬升不確定性、原材料如陶瓷粉體/電極金屬價格波動、匯率、以及中國市場營收占比高帶來的區域需求與地緣政治風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鈦酸鋇/陶瓷粉體供應商 MLCC核心介電材料上游；公司未在公開法說會逐一揭露供應商名稱，常見供應來源多為日系或國際材料廠，故列為材料類別而非特定公司。
  • 鎳、銅、銀鈀等內外電極金屬與漿料供應商 MLCC電極與端電極材料上游；具體供應商未公開揭露，受金屬價格、供應穩定性與高壓產品材料規格影響。
  • 高階MLCC製程與檢測設備供應商 擴產與良率爬升相關上游；媒體報導高階設備交期可達一年至一年半，但未揭露具體供應商。
  • 禾瑞亞科技股份有限公司 3556 EETI觸控IC/主動元件代理線，屬台股上櫃公司；公司官網主動元件事業群列EETI為產品線。
  • 新唐科技股份有限公司 4919 Nuvoton為週邊元件代理線之一，屬台股上市公司；公司官網週邊元件事業群列Nuvoton。
  • 台達電子工業股份有限公司 2308 Delta為電源元件代理線之一，屬台股上市公司；公司官網電源元件事業群列DELTA。
  • Panasonic 日本企業；公司官網週邊元件事業群列Panasonic為代理線。
  • Nichicon 日本上市公司；公司官網週邊元件事業群列Nichicon為代理線。
  • Microchip Technology 美國上市公司；公司官網消費元件事業群列Microchip為代理線。
  • Vishay Intertechnology 美國上市公司；公司官網消費元件事業群列Vishay為代理線。
  • AIC tech Inc. 公司官網電源元件事業群列為電源元件代理線，是否台股掛牌未能確認，stock_id留空。
Downstream
  • 美系四大雲端服務供應商 媒體引述董事長說法稱為禾伸堂客戶；未逐名揭露，推定為AI伺服器/CSP資料中心電源應用客戶群，非台股公司。
  • Dell Technologies 美國上市公司；媒體引述董事長說法稱戴爾等大廠為客戶，主要與AI伺服器/資料中心硬體供應鏈相關。
  • AI Server Power供應商 公司法說會揭露已切入高階AI Server Power供應鏈，但未公開逐一列名；為高壓NP0、X7S、X8M MLCC直接應用端。
  • 全球主要CSP 公司法說會將全球主要CSP列為AI Server Power終端需求端；未公開逐一列名，非台股掛牌主體。
  • 伺服器ODM/OEM供應鏈 AI伺服器電源、BBU、CBU與主機板應用的下游製造鏈；具體客戶未完全揭露，台股ODM如廣達、緯創、英業達、鴻海可能屬終端供應鏈參與者，但未查得公司逐名確認，故不填個別stock_id。
  • 車用電子與新能源客戶 公司官網稱已正式成為汽車供應鏈一環，並聚焦節能與能量轉換效率相關被動元件；具體客戶未公開揭露。
  • 工控、網通、PoE、LED照明與觸控LCD模組客戶 公司解決方案涵蓋PoE、Switching Power Supply、BMS、Touchscreen LCD Module、LED Lighting等，終端客戶未逐一公開。

Competitors

  • 國巨股份有限公司 2327 台股上市，被動元件龍頭，MLCC、晶片電阻、電容、感測/磁性元件等產品線完整，是禾伸堂在被動元件與高階MLCC市場的重要競爭對手。
  • 華新科技股份有限公司 2492 台股上市，被動元件與MLCC廠，與禾伸堂在MLCC、車用/工控/電源應用領域競爭。
  • 臺慶科技股份有限公司 3357 台股上櫃，被動元件/電感廠；在電子零組件與電源相關被動元件市場具競爭關係。
  • 大毅科技股份有限公司 2478 台股上市，晶片電阻與被動元件廠；與禾伸堂在被動元件客戶端部分重疊。
  • 凱美電機股份有限公司 2375 台股上市，被動元件與鋁電解電容等產品；在電源與電子零組件市場與禾伸堂部分競爭。
  • 立隆電子工業股份有限公司 2472 台股上市，鋁電解電容與固態電容廠；與禾伸堂在電源、工控、網通等被動元件應用端部分重疊。
  • 文曄科技股份有限公司 3036 台股上市半導體通路商；禾伸堂有主動元件與系統/代理通路業務，因此在電子零組件代理與解決方案銷售端部分競爭。
  • 大聯大控股股份有限公司 3702 台股上市大型半導體零組件通路商；與禾伸堂代理通路業務在部分客戶與產品線上競爭。
  • Murata Manufacturing 日本上市公司，全球MLCC龍頭之一；為禾伸堂在高階MLCC與車用/電源應用的國際競爭者。
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics 韓國上市公司，全球MLCC主要供應商；在高階MLCC與伺服器/車用市場競爭。
  • Taiyo Yuden 日本上市公司，MLCC與電子元件供應商；在高階被動元件市場競爭。
  • TDK 日本上市公司，電子元件與被動元件大廠；在高階電容、電感與電源相關元件領域競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.