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3163

波若威 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 波若威 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 波若威 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 46th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.8%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.7% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 30.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
國泰證券 holds 2,228 lots
sellers have 4,353 lots left, ~145 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +158% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 2,228 lots since the start (sold 21%), still adding.
Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 2,761 lots, has sold 88%, 328 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.21pp, mid holders +3, retail -5.10pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -733 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

國泰證券凱基-信義國票-敦北法人永豐金證券國票-長城台新

Distributing

美商高盛元大證券摩根大通港商野村富邦證券花旗環球

Desks

own scale

國泰-板橋國票-安和元大-大同統一

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

國泰證券 +2,228

sold 21%· still adding
凱基-信義 +1,042

sold 24%
國票-敦北法人 +939

sold 5%· still adding
永豐金證券 +904

sold 0%· still adding
國票-長城 +672

sold 13%
台新 +631

sold 8%· still adding

Distributing

美商高盛 328 left

sold 88%· paused recently
元大證券 1,574 left

sold 36%· ~34 sessions to clear
摩根大通 725 left

sold 70%· ~145 sessions to clear
港商野村 1,010 left

sold 49%· paused recently
富邦證券 540 left

sold 59%· ~9 sessions to clear
花旗環球 578 left

sold 40%· ~15 sessions to clear

Desks

國泰-板橋 -870

unclassified
國票-安和 -451

unclassified
元大-大同 -433

unclassified
統一 -419

unclassified

Still selling 4,353 lots ~145 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,922 absorbed / -2,669 sold sellers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -277 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 29.97%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

85 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-03)

120 days after: historical avg +25.74%

20-day +4.78%

60-day +17.38%

120-day +25.74%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

59%

63.3%

67.2%

Sample

Median

+5.46%

+8.58%

+14.15%

Excess

+2.97%

+13.24%

+17%

Beat mkt rate

55.7%

61.7%

58.6%

Over 58 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.74%, beat the market by 17 pts; win rate 67.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +55.5%

20-40 +37%

40-60 +39.4%

60-80 +94.9%

80-100 +8.1% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	360	+55.5%	+76.2%	83.1%	+36.1%
20-40	380	+37%	+48.4%	70.8%	+11.4%
40-60	335	+39.4%	+33.2%	81.5%	+22.2%
60-80	556	+94.9%	+33.4%	79%	+70.4%
80-100 You are here	345	+8.1%	+4.4%	58.8%	-7.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 104.51, at the 92.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+26.6%

Win rate 68.7% Excess +15.6%

259d

+5.7%

Win rate 48.4% Excess -1.9%

415d

+64.7%

Win rate 75.7% Excess +50.7%

507d

60-day momentum down

+14.2%

Win rate 43.8% Excess 0%

388d

+25.5%

Win rate 80.3% Excess +12.9%

234d

Now

+22.5%

Win rate 82.3% Excess +18.6%

293d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 293 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 22.5%, win rate 82.3%, beat the market by 18.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +27.3%, win rate 56%, beating the market by +21.48 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.72%, win rate 64.6%, beating the market by +9.79 pts on average.

What does 波若威 do? Company profile

通信網路業；光通訊被動元件、模組與次系統上櫃（櫃買中心 / Taipei Exchange）

Overview

3163 對應證券為波若威科技股份有限公司，英文名 Browave Corporation，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1998/05/18，總部位於新竹科學園區工業東九路 30 號 3 樓，統一編號 16586555；上櫃日期為 2012/12/03，公開發行日期為 2011/09/06，興櫃日期為 2011/11/03。董事長為鄭萬來，總經理為黃裕文，發言人為張文樵，代理發言人為黃淑君，股務代理為凱基證券。依 2026/02/03 Yahoo 股市與 2026/06/17 Win 投資資料，股本約新台幣 8.05 億元，已發行普通股約 80,540,741 股，特別股 0 股；簽證會計師事務所為資誠聯合會計師事務所。依 113 年報，截至 2025/03/31 集團期末員工人數 1,295 人，2024/12/31 為 1,137 人。主要可確認股東/董事持股包含行政院國家發展基金管理會持股 3,033,125 股、持股 3.77%，董事陳有諒持股 2,176,090 股、持股 2.70%，董事長鄭萬來持股 1,770,083 股、持股 2.20%；Yahoo 股市揭露董監持股比例約 9.8%。

Business

波若威主要從事 5G、資料中心、CATV、PON、FTTH/FTTR 相關光通訊被動元件、模組及次系統之設計、生產與銷售，商業模式以 OEM、ODM、ICM 與光學製造整合代工為核心，協助國際通訊設備、光收發器與資料中心客戶開發及量產客製化光學元件。主要產品包括：1. 光波長分合產品 WDM，例如 TFF DWDM/CWDM、Miniature WDM、AWG 元件，用於光纖通訊系統中的波長分波與複用；2. 光能量分合產品 Branch，例如 PLC splitter、Coupler、Fiber Array，用於光能量分配；3. 光能量放大產品 AMP，例如 Integrated module、GFF、Hybrid device、Inline isolator，用於光能量放大；4. 光纖連接產品 OIN，例如 Patchcord、MPO/MTP、AOC 與配件，用於光纖對接。依 113 年報，2024 年營收結構為光纖連接產品 35.99%、光能量分合產品 29.70%、光波長分合產品 28.68%、光能量放大產品 5.13%、其他 0.50%；2024 年合併營收新台幣 19.4127 億元，年減 30%，稅後盈餘新台幣 4.63068 億元，EPS 5.75 元。依 Yahoo 股市月營收資料，2025 年全年合併營收新台幣 22.25651 億元，年增 14.65%。主要終端應用包括 AI/資料中心 400G、800G、1.6T 光收發器，CPO Optical I/O、光纖套件 Fiber Harness、光纖配線盒 / Shuffle Module，另包括 5G、長途網、城域網、PON/FTTH/FTTR 與 CATV DOCSIS 4.0 升級。113 年報揭露主要銷貨客戶以代號匿名：2024 年 C 客戶占銷貨淨額 25.57%、J 客戶 17.54%、F 客戶 9.94%，均為非關係人；2023 年 L 客戶、C 客戶、F 客戶分別占 35.82%、21.52%、11.72%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：公司 113 年報指出，2025 年市場聚焦 AI 伺服器 800G/1.6T 光纖套件、AI 伺服器 800G/1.6T Jumper/Cable、下世代 PON/FTTH Branch 產品、下世代 CATV WDM 產品；CPO 領域的光纖套件與光纖配線盒預計 2025 年下半年完成驗證、2026 年開始量產。公司亦已完成菲律賓蘇比克新廠，以因應北美客戶與供應鏈地理多樣化，降低關稅與地緣政治衝擊。2026 年：依 114 年報彙整資料，成長動能主要來自 AI/DC 伺服器光纖接線盒、1.6T 產品、下世代 PON 與下世代 CATV；CPO 相關光纖套件與光纖配線盒預計 2026 年下半年開始量產，並完成 1.6T 高速光模組相關產品開發，具備供貨能力。2027-2028 年：可合理推估高階光通訊需求仍受 AI 資料中心、高速交換器、光進銅退、800G 往 1.6T/更高規格升級，以及 CPO/OCS 架構滲透帶動；若波若威通過主要客戶驗證並順利放量，產品組合可能朝高密度光纖互連、Optical I/O、Shuffle Module、Fiber Harness 與 MMC Jumper 等高階產品提升。主要風險包括：AI 資料中心規格切換時程不確定、CPO 標準尚未完全定型、客戶集中且年報匿名揭露、北美客戶庫存與資本支出波動、關稅與地緣政治、匯率、菲律賓新廠良率與產能爬坡、自動化投資折舊、同業價格競爭，以及若終端架構改變造成光進銅退延遲，可能使 Jumper/Cable 需求平緩。

Supply Chain

Upstream

D 廠商（年報匿名） 113 年報揭露之主要供應商，2023 年占進貨淨額 37.36%，2024 年占 9.03%，為非關係人；公司未揭露實名，推測屬光學零件或連接器零件供應鏈。
國內外光學零件供應商（未揭露名稱）波若威年報稱主要原料為光學零件、連接器零件，供應商為國內外知名大廠，貨源穩定；未揭露具體公司名稱。
國內外連接器零件供應商（未揭露名稱）供應 Patchcord、MPO/MTP、光纖陣列連接器、Jumper/Cable 等光纖連接產品所需零件；年報未揭露具體公司名稱。

Downstream

C 客戶（年報匿名） 113 年報揭露 2024 年最大銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額 25.57%，非關係人；實名未揭露，屬光通訊/資料中心相關客戶。
J 客戶（年報匿名） 113 年報揭露 2024 年第二大銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額 17.54%，非關係人；實名未揭露。
F 客戶（年報匿名） 113 年報揭露 2024 年第三大銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額 9.94%，非關係人；實名未揭露。
北美 AI/資料中心與光收發器客戶群（未揭露名稱）公司年報與市場報導指向 800G/1.6T、Fiber Harness、Jumper/Cable、CPO 光纖套件與配線盒需求主力聚焦北美市場；具體客戶名單未由公司正式揭露。
電信、MSO、PON/FTTH 與 CATV 系統客戶（未揭露名稱）下游應用包含下世代 PON/FTTH Branch 模組、CATV DOCSIS 4.0 升級 WDM/DWDM 模組；終端客戶多為電信商、有線電視多系統經營商或設備系統商，實名未揭露。

Competitors

光環科技 3234 台股上櫃光通訊族群，產品與光元件/光收發模組相關，與波若威在光通訊供應鏈部分重疊。
上詮光纖通信 3363 台股上櫃光纖被動元件、光纖陣列與資料中心高速傳輸相關供應商，是波若威在光被動元件與矽光子/CPO 概念鏈上的重要同業。
聯亞光電 3081 台股上櫃 InP 磊晶、雷射與光通訊上游公司，與波若威非完全同產品，但同屬 AI 光通訊與矽光子供應鏈。
聯鈞光電 3450 台股上市光通訊元件與模組廠，與波若威同受資料中心高速光通訊需求影響。
前鼎光電 4908 台股上櫃光通訊模組/光收發相關公司，市場常列為光通訊與 CPO 概念同業。
眾達-KY 4977 台股上市光通訊模組廠，與波若威同屬高速光通訊供應鏈。
華星光通 4979 台股上櫃光通訊主動元件與光收發相關公司，與波若威在 AI 資料中心光通訊題材上同族群。
光聖科技 6442 台股上市光通訊與高頻連接相關公司，市場常列為矽光子/CPO 與光通訊供應鏈同業。
主向位科技台股上櫃光通訊相關同業；StockFeel 將其列為波若威光元件模組競爭對手。
華信科台股上櫃光通訊相關同業；StockFeel 將其列為波若威光元件模組競爭對手。

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.