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3324

雙鴻 Other Electronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 雙鴻 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 28Quality 88Growth 92Momentum 56Chips 65

Is 雙鴻 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 80th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 9.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 62th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 73th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 93.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.70
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 永豐金-匯立 holds 1,104 lots
  • sellers have 2,082 lots left, ~763 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-匯立 has accumulated 1,104 lots since the start (sold 2%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國泰證券 peaked at 1,194 lots, has sold 30%, 839 left, ~763 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -5.32pp, mid holders -3, retail +6.00pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -4,753 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-匯立凱基-站前兆豐證券元大-崇德德信-中正統一-台中
Distributing
國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利群益金鼎國泰-敦南統一台新
Desks
own scale
美商高盛元大證券凱基國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-匯立 +1,104
    sold 2%
  • 凱基-站前 +561
    sold 19%
  • 兆豐證券 +537
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 元大-崇德 +456
    sold 7%
  • 德信-中正 +322
    sold 0%
  • 統一-台中 +190
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 國泰證券 839 left
    sold 30%· ~763 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 309 left
    sold 74%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎 466 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 236 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 統一 254 left
    sold 38%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 台新 296 left
    sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -1,743
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -1,560
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -1,340
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -1,274
    unclassified
Still selling 2,082 lots ~763 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +763 absorbed / -1,305 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,028 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 93.75%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

108 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 105, Median +0.84%, Excess +0.17%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 46.6%, Sample 103, Median -2.13%, Excess +1.69%, Beat mkt rate 36.9%；120-day: Win 47%, Sample 100, Median -5.53%, Excess +5.16%, Beat mkt rate 42%

120 days after: historical avg +12.39%

20-day +1.61%
60-day +5.29%
120-day +12.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.4%
46.6%
47%
Sample
105
103
100
Median
+0.84%
-2.13%
-5.53%
Excess
+0.17%
+1.69%
+5.16%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
36.9%
42%

Over 100 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.39%, beat the market by 5.16 pts; win rate 47%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 363+68.5% +61.1% 69.7% +51.6%
20-40 565+8.5% -3.8% 43.4% -4.4%
40-60 614+55% +11.9% 62.1% +36.8%
60-80 You are here532+99.3% +83.7% 94.7% +69.2%
80-100 673+91.1% +33.3% 64.3% +81.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 30.3, at the 72.9th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+26.8%
Win rate 51.3% Excess +19.5%
228d
+8.5%
Win rate 44.2% Excess +1.4%
597d
+45.5%
Win rate 67.6% Excess +32.5%
849d
60-day momentum down
+15.8%
Win rate 57.1% Excess +8.5%
497d
+38.8%
Win rate 63.6% Excess +29.8%
368d
Now
+30.5%
Win rate 63.7% Excess +25.8%
328d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 328 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 30.5%, win rate 63.7%, beat the market by 25.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +21.77%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +16.72 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.52%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +11.05 pts on average.

What does 雙鴻 do? Company profile

其他電子業；散熱模組與液冷散熱解決方案 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

3324 對應證券為雙鴻科技股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司於 1998 年 8 月 24 日成立，2005 年 5 月 13 日上櫃，總部位於新北市新莊區五權三路 6 號 3 樓，統一編號 16619628。官方與公開資訊顯示主要營業項目為散熱模組。董事長為林育申，總經理為陳志偉，發言人為陳玉玲。櫃買中心資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 930,747,950 元；Goodinfo 於 2026 年資料亦顯示資本額約 9.31 億元、發行普通股約 93,076,837 股。2024 年年報揭露合併員工人數 2023 年 1,821 人、2024 年 2,291 人、截至 2025 年 2 月 27 日 2,423 人。主要股東與經營層方面，年報揭露董事長林育申於 2025 年 3 月 18 日持有 13,152,686 股、持股 14.40%；公開股權資料亦顯示董監持股約 19%上下。公司生產布局含台灣總部與大陸、泰國等生產據點；2024 年年報提及公司為因應客戶供應鏈布局，拓展大陸及泰國生產據點。

Business

雙鴻核心業務為氣冷與液冷散熱模組、熱管、均溫板、風扇與散熱器整合、水冷板、泵浦、分歧管、冷水分配裝置 CDU/RPU/HRU、快接頭等客製化散熱產品與系統方案。主要應用包括 AI 伺服器、一般伺服器、工作站、筆記型電腦、桌上型電腦、平板、顯示卡、電競設備、車用與高功率運算設備。2024 年年報揭露 2024 年營收應用比重約為伺服器 39%、PC 39%、VGA 17%、車用 2%；2025 年全年媒體報導引用公司/法說資料指出營收結構已轉向伺服器約 57%、PC 約 27%、顯示卡約 14%、其他約 2%。公司商業模式以與系統廠、品牌廠、雲端服務供應商及晶片平台共同開發新機種散熱方案為主，散熱模組高度客製化，需配合 GPU/CPU 規格、機構設計、散熱功耗與可靠度驗證。公司 2024 年外銷占比 75%，其中亞洲 49%、歐洲 12%、美洲 14%，內銷 25%。2024 年年報將主要客戶以代號揭露，2024 年銷貨占比超過 10%者為 Q、D、T 三家，分別占 13.64%、11.56%、10.70%，未揭露實名；法人報告與媒體則指向 Supermicro、Dell、Meta、AWS、Oracle 等 AI 伺服器與 CSP 客戶或終端專案，但此部分非公司年報具名確認。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以 AI 伺服器液冷滲透率提升為主軸。2024 年年報指出 AI GPU/CPU 功耗提高，高階晶片設計功耗已超過 1,000W，資料中心降低 PUE 與提升算力密度需求將推動液冷成為未來 3 至 5 年雲端資料中心重要散熱方案；TrendForce 資料被年報引用，預估 2025 年 AI 伺服器出貨成長逾 28%，2023 至 2028 年 AI 伺服器出貨 CAGR 接近 24%，2028 年 AI 伺服器約占全年伺服器出貨量 20%。公司 2025 年受惠水冷板、分歧管、CDU 與高階均溫板放量，全年營收達 232.76 億元、年增約 47.5%至 47.6%，EPS 28.26 元；2026 年媒體報導指出公司看好水冷需求與泰國新產能，水冷營收比重目標上看 70%，ASIC 產品營收比重有望達 4 成，法人估全年營收可成長 6 至 7 成、接近 400 億元水準。產品面，成長動能包括 GB300、Blackwell/Rubin 世代 AI 伺服器、ASIC 伺服器、記憶體水冷、In-Row CDU、2MW/更高功率 CDU、快接頭自製、CPU 伺服器均熱片擴產，以及泰國廠量產。2027 至 2028 年的能見度主要來自 AI 伺服器與 CSP 資本支出延續、機櫃功耗持續提升、液冷由水冷板與分歧管擴大至 CDU/系統級方案；但公司公開具體財務指引仍以短中期為主，2027 至 2028 數字多屬產業趨勢與法人推估。主要風險包括 AI 伺服器拉貨節奏波動、客戶集中、平台世代切換認證時程、液冷良率與漏液可靠度、CDU/快接頭自製導入風險、同業競價、銅鋁與零組件成本、匯率、泰國與中國產能擴充執行、人才競爭，以及若未來機櫃架構改變導致既有水冷板/分歧管設計需重做，可能影響短期出貨與毛利率。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅、鋁及金屬加工供應商 年報產業鏈圖列示鋁/銅、金屬加工為主要上游原料；公司未在年報具名揭露主要供應商，且 2024 年單一供應商 F 僅占進貨 3.24%，供應商名稱以代號揭露。
  • 熱導管、均溫板、導熱墊片與 TIM 供應鏈 為散熱模組關鍵材料與零組件；雙鴻部分關鍵零組件自製，部分由子公司或外部供應，公開年報未揭露具名供應商。
  • 風扇、水泵浦、快接頭、管線與控制元件供應鏈 液冷系統上游零組件；年報與媒體提及雙鴻提高水冷板、分歧管、CDU、快接頭等自製率，但部分管線、風扇、快接頭等仍可能外購；未確認具名供應商。
  • GPU/CPU 晶片平台廠 散熱規格需配合 GPU/CPU 平台設計與功耗；法人與媒體提及 NVIDIA、AMD 等平台導入液冷需求，均為美國上市或海外公司，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • Q、D、T 等匿名主要客戶 2024 年年報揭露 2024 年銷貨占比超過 10%客戶以代號 Q、D、T 表示，分別占 13.64%、11.56%、10.70%，均為非關係人；公司未揭露實名。
  • Supermicro（美超微） 法人報告與媒體指稱雙鴻供應 AI 伺服器水冷板、分歧管等液冷方案予 Supermicro 或其專案；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，非公司年報具名確認。
  • Dell Technologies 法人報告指稱為雙鴻 2025 年液冷產品企業型客戶之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，非公司年報具名確認。
  • Meta Platforms 法人報告與媒體指稱為雙鴻液冷方案終端 CSP 客戶之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，非公司年報具名確認。
  • Amazon Web Services（AWS） 法人報告與媒體指稱為雙鴻液冷方案終端 CSP 客戶之一；AWS 屬 Amazon，為美國上市公司旗下事業，非台股掛牌，非公司年報具名確認。
  • Oracle 媒體報導指稱雙鴻液冷產品供應 Oracle 相關 AI 伺服器專案；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，非公司年報具名確認。
  • 筆電、桌機、顯示卡、車用與資料中心系統廠 公司年報明確列為下游應用，包括 NB/PC、VGA、車用、AI/伺服器/DIMM 等；具體台股客戶未由公司公開確認。

Competitors

  • 奇鋐 3017 台股上市散熱大廠，產品涵蓋風扇、散熱模組與伺服器液冷相關方案，是雙鴻在 AI 伺服器散熱與高階熱管理領域最直接的台股競爭對手之一。
  • 力致 3483 台股上櫃散熱模組廠，產品涵蓋筆電、伺服器、車用與液冷相關方案，與雙鴻在散熱模組及水冷板應用有競爭。
  • 泰碩 3338 台股上市散熱元件與模組廠，供應熱管、均溫板與散熱模組，與雙鴻在 NB、伺服器與高階散熱零組件有競爭。
  • 建準 2421 台股上市風扇與散熱解決方案廠，伺服器與資料中心散熱需求提升下，與雙鴻部分產品線或系統散熱方案存在競合。
  • 健策 3653 台股上市高階散熱、導線架與伺服器散熱零組件供應商，在高功率運算散熱、均熱與液冷相關零組件領域與雙鴻有部分競爭。
  • 高力 8996 台股上市熱交換器與能源熱管理廠，近年切入資料中心液冷、CDU 或熱交換相關應用，與雙鴻在液冷系統層級有部分競爭。
  • Cooler Master、CoolIT、Asetek、Boyd、Delta Electronics 海外或跨國散熱廠 非全數為台股掛牌公司，屬伺服器液冷、冷板、CDU 或高階散熱解決方案國際競爭者；列示為產業競爭參考。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.