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3532

台勝科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台勝科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 21Growth 69Momentum 99Chips 18

Is 台勝科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 22th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.84
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大證券 holds 12,826 lots
  • sellers have 1,715 lots left, ~320 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +184% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大證券 has accumulated 12,826 lots since the start (sold 2%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 1,730 lots, has sold 48%, 896 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.61pp, mid holders +14, retail -5.07pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,195 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大證券國泰證券台新永豐金證券富邦證券群益金鼎
Distributing
美商高盛凱基-信義凱基-城中台新證券新加坡商瑞銀凱基-站前
Desks
own scale
摩根大通香港上海匯豐華南永昌富邦-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大證券 +12,826
    sold 2%
  • 國泰證券 +3,730
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新 +2,170
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +2,049
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +1,934
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +1,765
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 896 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 凱基-信義 345 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 凱基-城中 632 left
    sold 44%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 108 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 231 left
    sold 64%· paused recently
  • 凱基-站前 376 left
    sold 27%· ~84 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -7,222
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 香港上海匯豐 -2,165
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 華南永昌 -957
    unclassified
  • 富邦-台北 -634
    unclassified
Still selling 1,715 lots ~320 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,583 absorbed / -894 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -620 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-21)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 56.5%, Sample 23, Median +2.19%, Excess +7.16%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%；60-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 22, Median -2.4%, Excess +0.67%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%；120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 21, Median -5.42%, Excess -9.3%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg -4.36%

20-day +7.32%
60-day +4.84%
120-day -4.36%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.5%
45.5%
33.3%
Sample
23
22
21
Median
+2.19%
-2.4%
-5.42%
Excess
+7.16%
+0.67%
-9.3%
Beat mkt rate
52.2%
40.9%
33.3%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.36%, lagged the market by 9.3 pts; win rate 33.3%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.42%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 historical occurrences (since 2007-12-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 58, Median -0.29%, Excess -2.69%, Beat mkt rate 41.4%；60-day: Win 43.1%, Sample 58, Median -4.33%, Excess -6.34%, Beat mkt rate 29.3%；120-day: Win 35.1%, Sample 57, Median -9.04%, Excess -15.81%, Beat mkt rate 14%

120 days after: historical avg -10.99%

20-day -2.04%
60-day -3.54%
120-day -10.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
43.1%
35.1%
Sample
58
58
57
Median
-0.29%
-4.33%
-9.04%
Excess
-2.69%
-6.34%
-15.81%
Beat mkt rate
41.4%
29.3%
14%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 10.99%, lagged the market by 15.81 pts; win rate 35.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1137+25.4% +8.2% 65.4% +7.3%
20-40 769+22.1% -14.6% 43.2% -2.6%
40-60 503+35.7% +38.1% 68.2% +23.9%
60-80 147-23.2% -36.4% 16.3% -16.2%
80-100 You are here41+11.9% +16.9% 90.2% -0.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 500.63, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+11.9%
Win rate 46.3% Excess +4.9%
784d
+37.1%
Win rate 84.2% Excess +22.7%
533d
Now
-7.4%
Win rate 27.7% Excess -11.2%
155d
60-day momentum down
+6.6%
Win rate 53.4% Excess -0.7%
844d
+11.1%
Win rate 64.2% Excess +0.2%
394d
Insufficient data
(7d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 155 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 7.4%, win rate 27.7%, lagged the market by 11.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.49%, win rate 52.8%, beating the market by +3.72 pts on average.

What does 台勝科 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體矽晶圓材料 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3532 對應台塑勝高科技股份有限公司，簡稱台勝科，為台股上市普通股。公司成立於 1995/11/21，股票於 2007/12/10 掛牌上市。總公司位於雲林縣麥寮鄉中興村台塑工業園區 1-1 號，台北辦事處位於台北市內湖區南京東路六段 380 號台塑企業內湖大樓 A1 棟 8 樓。董事長為郭文筆，總經理為高橋和也，發言人為邱紹勛。113 年報揭露流通在外普通股 387,848,300 股、實收資本額約新台幣 38.78 億元；114/3/31 員工數 1,480 人。主要股東為日商 SUMCO TECHXIV 株式會社持股 45.05%、台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司持股 29.05%、亞太投資股份有限公司持股 8.94%、中華郵政持股 1.57%。公司為台塑集團與日本 SUMCO 相關體系合資背景的矽晶圓製造商。

Business

公司主要產品為 8 吋與 12 吋半導體矽晶圓，113 年合併營收新台幣 124.21635 億元，營業比重為矽晶圓 100%；113 年內銷占 81%、外銷至亞洲與美洲占 19%。產品型態包含拋光晶圓、氫/氬氣處理晶圓、熱處理晶圓與磊晶相關產品，作為 IC、DRAM、晶圓代工、電源管理 IC、LCD 驅動 IC、分離式元件等半導體製造基板。商業模式為資本密集、長認證週期的上游材料供應，透過長期客戶認證、品質穩定度、在地供應與交期優勢取得晶圓代工與記憶體客戶訂單。113 年報揭露前五大銷貨客戶以代號揭露，113 年 A 公司占 27.71%、M 公司占 15.69%、STC 占 14.12%、D 公司占 11.60%、其他占 30.88%；因契約因素未完整揭露實名。MoneyDJ 產業資料指出客戶包含晶圓代工及 DRAM 製造產業，並列舉台積電、聯電、世界先進等晶圓代工客戶；台灣 DRAM 廠商多為其客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 展望偏向循環復甦但仍受價格與折舊壓力牽制。公司 113 年報對 114 年表示全球矽晶圓市場預計持續復甦，主要受 AI、HPC、EV 與 HBM 推動；需求呈兩極化，12 吋先進製程矽晶圓需求強勁，12 吋成熟製程與 8 吋市場復甦較慢。SEMI 2025/10 預測全球矽晶圓出貨面積 2025 年成長 5.4% 至 12,824 MSI，並至 2028 年達 15,485 MSI 創新高，對公司 12 吋產品具中長期支撐。公司策略包括從日本 SUMCO 引進先進技術、提升 12 吋製程能力與市占率、擴建 12 吋二廠產能、強化先進製程客戶銷售、開拓海外市場、推動成本控制與自動化。2026 年近期法說相關報導指出，12 吋新廠產能扣除認證中項目後已接近滿載且新廠產能已被客戶預約，8 吋稼動率接近九成，現貨價格開始上揚，公司正與客戶討論下半年價格調整，並布局先進封裝用 interposer 特殊規格矽晶圓與 HBM 相關拋光晶圓需求；但第一季仍受新廠折舊壓力影響。主要風險包括中國矽晶圓廠擴產與價格競爭、成熟製程與消費電子復甦不均、記憶體價格循環、長約價格調整滯後、新廠折舊與稼動率爬坡、原料與能源成本、匯率、地緣政治與客戶海外供應鏈重組。2027-2028 的成長關鍵在全球晶圓廠稼動率、AI/HBM/先進封裝需求是否外溢至矽晶圓用量，以及公司 12 吋新產能認證與量產進度。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Tokuyama Corporation 日本化學與多晶矽相關供應商；113 年報揭露為主要進貨供應商之一，非台股掛牌公司。
  • Japan Formosa Sumco Technology Corporation 台勝科子公司；113 年報揭露為主要進貨對象，供應結晶晶塊等相關項目，未在台股掛牌。
  • SUMCO Corporation 日本上市矽晶圓大廠，為台勝科最終母公司體系與技術來源；113 年報揭露為主要進貨供應商之一，非台股掛牌公司。
  • Marubeni Corporation 113 年報列為多結晶矽可供應廠商；日本商社，非台股掛牌公司。
  • High Purity Silicon Corporation 113 年報列為多結晶矽可供應廠商；非台股掛牌公司。
  • Wacker Chemie AG 113 年報列為多結晶矽可供應廠商；德國化學材料公司，非台股掛牌公司。
Downstream
  • 台積電 2330 MoneyDJ 產業資料列舉之晶圓代工客戶；台勝科供應半導體矽晶圓基板，實際採購比重未由公司年報具名揭露。
  • 聯電 2303 MoneyDJ 產業資料列舉之晶圓代工客戶；主要應用於成熟製程與晶圓代工用矽晶圓，實際採購比重未由公司年報具名揭露。
  • 世界先進 5347 MoneyDJ 產業資料列舉之晶圓代工客戶；與 8 吋成熟製程、電源管理 IC、驅動 IC 等應用相關，實際採購比重未由公司年報具名揭露。
  • 南亞科 2408 台灣 DRAM 製造商；MoneyDJ 指台灣 DRAM 廠商幾乎都是台勝科客戶，此項為產業鏈合理歸類，年報未具名揭露。
  • 華邦電 2344 台灣記憶體製造商；屬台勝科下游記憶體應用之合理歸類，年報未具名揭露。
  • A 公司、M 公司、STC、D 公司等年報代號客戶 113 年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶代號；合計占 113 年銷貨淨額 69.12%，因契約約定未揭露完整名稱，stock_id 無法確認。

Competitors

  • 環球晶 6488 台灣上櫃矽晶圓同業，產品涵蓋半導體矽晶圓，為台勝科主要台灣競爭者之一。
  • 合晶 6182 台灣上櫃矽晶圓同業，為台勝科在矽晶圓市場的本土競爭者之一。
  • 嘉晶 3016 台灣上市磊晶與矽晶圓相關材料公司，部分產品與客戶應用具競爭或替代關係。
  • Shin-Etsu Handotai 日本信越化學旗下全球矽晶圓龍頭之一，非台股掛牌。
  • SUMCO Corporation 日本全球矽晶圓大廠；同時為台勝科母公司體系與技術來源，在全球市場亦屬同業競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • Siltronic AG 德國矽晶圓大廠，非台股掛牌。
  • SK Siltron 韓國 SK 集團旗下矽晶圓公司，非台股掛牌。
  • TCL 中環新能源科技 中國矽材料與矽晶圓供應商；非台股掛牌，對成熟製程與中國市場價格具競爭壓力。
  • 滬硅產業 中國 12 吋矽晶圓供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • 金瑞泓 中國矽晶圓相關供應商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.