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3706

神達 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 神達 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 67Quality 48Growth 84Momentum 65Chips 61

Is 神達 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 32th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 69th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 49.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金證券 holds 10,150 lots
  • sellers have 10,934 lots left, ~163 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 10,150 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 10,224 lots, has sold 52%, 4,953 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.07pp, mid holders +3, retail -2.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,111 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金證券大和國泰花旗環球群益金鼎兆豐-東門統一-新台中
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北元大證券摩根大通國泰證券康和
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利凱基華南永昌富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金證券 +10,150
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 大和國泰 +9,721
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +4,900
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +1,075
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 兆豐-東門 +1,073
    sold 0%
  • 統一-新台中 +908
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 4,953 left
    sold 52%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,307 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 2,805 left
    sold 34%· ~80 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 1,362 left
    sold 65%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 930 left
    sold 49%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 康和 147 left
    sold 83%· ~3 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -3,555
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基 -2,785
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -2,397
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -2,329
    unclassified
Still selling 10,934 lots ~163 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +10,910 absorbed / -9,054 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7,095 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 49.3%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

61 historical occurrences (since 2014-10-13)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.7%, Sample 60, Median +1.96%, Excess +0.71%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 60.3%, Sample 58, Median +3%, Excess +2.77%, Beat mkt rate 39.7%；120-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 55, Median +6.19%, Excess +5.66%, Beat mkt rate 47.3%

120 days after: historical avg +16.83%

20-day +2.57%
60-day +8.46%
120-day +16.83%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.7%
60.3%
72.7%
Sample
60
58
55
Median
+1.96%
+3%
+6.19%
Excess
+0.71%
+2.77%
+5.66%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
39.7%
47.3%

Over 55 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.83%, beat the market by 5.66 pts; win rate 72.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 971+18.9% +11.8% 69.6% +7.4%
20-40 255+10.8% +7.9% 92.2% -15%
40-60 383+14.8% +16.1% 95.6% -7.8%
60-80 You are here111+43.1% +47.5% 95.5% -23.6%
80-100 314+59.6% +50.7% 99% +39.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.47, at the 69.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.9%
Win rate 56.9% Excess +2.5%
592d
+7%
Win rate 72.1% Excess -5%
408d
Now
+8.4%
Win rate 55.2% Excess -11%
348d
60-day momentum down
+9.9%
Win rate 71% Excess +4%
480d
+13.6%
Win rate 99.4% Excess -1.2%
162d
+55.1%
Win rate 97.6% Excess +36.8%
164d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 348 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.4%, win rate 55.2%, lagged the market by 11%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.5%, win rate 47.6%, beating the market by -1.69 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.45%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +3.08 pts on average.

What does 神達 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業；雲端伺服器、AI/HPC伺服器、車用電子與智慧聯網 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

神達控股為聯華神通集團旗下上市控股公司，證券代號3706，普通股，市場別為台灣證券交易所上市。公司成立及掛牌日期為2013年9月12日，總部位於桃園市龜山區文化二路202號。董事長為苗豐強，總經理及發言人為何繼武。依2025年年報，實收資本額為新台幣13,272,124,680元，已發行普通股1,327,212,468股；截至2026年2月28日集團員工合計7,719人。主要子公司包括神達電腦、神雲科技及神達數位；2026年3月29日持股分別約100.00%、96.15%、61.18%。主要股東包括聯華實業控股8.78%、神通電腦8.41%、聯成化學科技8.27%、美安投資2.75%、義源投資1.69%、義豐投資1.26%、中華郵政1.06%、三商人壽1.06%、苗豐強1.01%、神基控股0.85%。2025年度合併營收新台幣1,055.77億元，歸屬母公司稅後淨利68.38億元，EPS 5.15元；2025年研發費用約35.97億元。股利政策為維持穩定股利，原則上以不低於當年度盈餘30%分派股東股利，2025年度董事會擬議每股現金股利3.00元及股票股利1.00元。

Business

神達控股主要透過子公司經營兩大主軸：一是神雲科技的雲端運算與人工智慧業務，提供通用型伺服器、工作站、客製化伺服器與工作站整機平台、儲存裝置、網路及伺服器裝置、AI/HPC伺服器、OCP開放運算架構伺服器、液冷伺服器方案，以及整合運算、網路、儲存的整機櫃系統設計、組裝與部署服務；二是神達數位的車用電子、車載資通訊、Edge AI、AIoT、嵌入式系統與智慧聯網產品。2025年度年報揭露營業比重以「電腦及通訊產品」列示，金額新台幣105,577,033千元、比率100%，未再拆分伺服器與車用電子占比。銷售地區以美國為最大市場，2025年美國銷售新台幣74,138,052千元，歐洲18,365,409千元，其他11,631,677千元，台灣1,441,895千元。商業模式包含ODM、OEM、JDM、品牌產品與機櫃整合，對大型資料中心與雲端服務供應商提供客製化伺服器、整機櫃與部署服務，對企業及通路客戶提供標準型伺服器與儲存產品；車用電子則提供軟硬體整合、車隊管理、車載視訊、行車記錄器與Edge AI平台。年報揭露2025年單一A客戶銷貨占比67%，單一C供應商進貨占比41%，但未揭露具名客戶或供應商。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自AI算力需求、CSP與超大規模資料中心資本支出、AI/HPC伺服器升級、OCP架構滲透、液冷散熱導入、整機櫃交付，以及車用電子、車隊管理、Edge AI與智慧聯網應用擴大。公司2025年年報指出，神雲科技受惠於超大規模資料中心與CSP需求強勁，2025年營收創新高；2026年營業計畫聚焦雲端與人工智慧、車用電子、車載資通訊服務與智慧聯網。產品方面，公司已發表高密度AI氣冷整機櫃方案、水冷高密度Rack L11整機櫃方案，並導入單相DLC水冷設計；未來規劃基於NVIDIA Blackwell與AMD Instinct等平台架構推出AI伺服器系統，並以OCP架構搭配液冷散熱作為AI伺服器主要設計方向。公司也將神雲旗下TYAN、DSG與MiTAC OCP伺服器產品線整合為MiTAC Computing品牌，長期目標是擴大與企業級及雲端服務客戶合作，由模組出貨提升至全系統與多產品線合作。產能與供應鏈方面，年報揭露神達電腦越南子公司新增建廠相關工程，媒體報導亦指出美國新廠與亞太、北美組裝產能擴充將支援伺服器及車用電子需求。主要風險包括：AI伺服器需求若低於預期、客戶資本支出循環反轉、單一大客戶集中度高、關鍵零組件如CPU/GPU/DRAM/SSD/電源/網通晶片受國際大廠掌控、匯率與新台幣升值侵蝕、地緣政治與關稅、供應鏈交期及原料漲價、液冷與整機櫃新產品驗證時程、ODM競爭加劇及毛利率壓力。2027至2028年的展望屬推估：若AI推論、Neocloud、企業AI與資料中心更新需求延續，公司伺服器與整機櫃業務仍具成長空間；若GPU平台轉換或CSP投資放緩，營收波動可能放大。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Intel Corporation 美國上市公司；神達雲端運算產品使用Intel Xeon等x86平台，年報提及Intel Xeon 6、DDR5、PCIe 5.0及自Intel接手之伺服器系統產品售後服務。
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 美國上市公司；神達年報提及支援AMD EPYC 9005處理器及AMD Instinct MI300X、MI325X、MI355X等AI/HPC平台設計。
  • NVIDIA Corporation 美國上市公司；神達年報提及NVIDIA Blackwell、HGX、MGX、H200 NVL及GPU支援，屬AI伺服器核心平台供應鏈。
  • Micron Technology, Inc. 美國上市公司；神達主要原料包含DRAM、儲存元件，Micron為全球DRAM與SSD供應商之一；未確認為神達具名直接供應商。
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 韓國上市公司；伺服器DRAM、SSD與記憶體供應鏈大廠；未確認為神達具名直接供應商。
  • SK hynix Inc. 韓國上市公司；AI伺服器HBM、DRAM供應鏈大廠；未確認為神達具名直接供應商。
  • 台達電子工業股份有限公司 2308 台股上市公司；伺服器電源供應器、散熱與資料中心電源解決方案供應鏈代表廠商。神達年報列PSU為主要原料，但未揭露具名供應商，故此為產業供應鏈關聯而非已確認直接供應。
  • 台光電子材料股份有限公司 2383 台股上市公司；伺服器與高速運算PCB上游CCL材料供應鏈代表廠商。神達年報列PCB為主要原料，但未揭露具名供應商。
  • 金像電子股份有限公司 2368 台股上市公司；伺服器PCB供應鏈代表廠商。神達年報列PCB為主要原料，但未揭露具名供應商。
Downstream
  • 大型雲端服務供應商及超大規模資料中心客戶 年報揭露神雲科技受惠於CSP及超大規模資料中心需求，並揭露2025年A客戶銷貨占比67%，但未公布客戶名稱；終端應用為AI訓練、AI推論、雲端運算、HPC、儲存與資料中心整機櫃。
  • Oracle Corporation 美國上市公司；多家市場報導提及神達取得Oracle AI伺服器相關訂單，但公司年報未具名確認，故列為媒體傳聞與可能下游客戶。
  • Amazon.com, Inc. / AWS 美國上市公司；市場媒體曾提及AWS相關訂單，但公司年報未具名確認，故列為媒體傳聞與可能下游客戶。
  • 企業級伺服器、經銷商與系統整合商 神達透過MiTAC Computing品牌、TYAN/DSG/MiTAC OCP整合產品提供標準型伺服器、儲存伺服器、OCP與HPC/AI平台。
  • 商用車隊、保險、智慧交通、智慧零售與智慧製造客戶 神達數位車隊管理、車載視訊、行車記錄器、Edge AI與AIoT解決方案終端市場；年報提及日本前三大汽車保險市場UBI應用及北美、歐洲、紐澳車隊管理平台訂閱服務。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.