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4513

福裕 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 福裕 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 30Growth 76Momentum 22Chips 18

Is 福裕 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 79th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 68th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.71
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 華南永昌-鶯歌 holds 295 lots
  • sellers have 381 lots left, ~27 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -23% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 華南永昌-鶯歌 has accumulated 295 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 265 lots, has sold 77%, 61 left, ~4 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +8.74pp, mid holders +1, retail -7.82pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -834 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
華南永昌-鶯歌國票-中正華南永昌-岡山台新-台中新光元大-路竹
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利美林摩根大通元大-嘉義臺銀-臺南
Desks
own scale
兆豐-北高雄凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀元大-北投
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 華南永昌-鶯歌 +295
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-中正 +256
    sold 0%
  • 華南永昌-岡山 +231
    sold 0%
  • 台新-台中 +225
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 新光 +204
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-路竹 +201
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 61 left
    sold 77%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 46 left
    sold 80%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 美林 28 left
    sold 85%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 43 left
    sold 72%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 元大-嘉義 25 left
    sold 82%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-臺南 48 left
    sold 64%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-北高雄 -880
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -676
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -372
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大-北投 -335
    unclassified
Still selling 381 lots ~27 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,508 absorbed / -857 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -46 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.52%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

72 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 45.3%, Sample 64, Median -0.85%, Excess +0.46%, Beat mkt rate 40.6%；60-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 64, Median -0.05%, Excess +2.1%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；120-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 62, Median +3.82%, Excess +6.07%, Beat mkt rate 46.8%

120 days after: historical avg +7.79%

20-day +1.09%
60-day +4.67%
120-day +7.79%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.3%
48.4%
58.1%
Sample
64
64
62
Median
-0.85%
-0.05%
+3.82%
Excess
+0.46%
+2.1%
+6.07%
Beat mkt rate
40.6%
43.8%
46.8%

Over 62 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.79%, beat the market by 6.07 pts; win rate 58.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 214+39.3% +37.7% 82.2% -14.9%
20-40 158+15.1% +19.9% 74.1% -20.2%
40-60 144+105.7% +91% 90.3% +51.5%
60-80 You are here277+54.1% +40.6% 74% +16.5%
80-100 199+51.8% +43.5% 83.9% +55.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 43.6, at the 67.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+32.5%
Win rate 59.6% Excess +13.5%
114d
+55%
Win rate 53.3% Excess +43.3%
135d
+11.5%
Win rate 63.1% Excess +14.7%
293d
60-day momentum down
+5%
Win rate 58.4% Excess -10.8%
202d
+50.2%
Win rate 65.4% Excess +12.6%
234d
Now
+55.2%
Win rate 100% Excess +21.8%
129d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 129 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 55.2%, win rate 100%, beat the market by 21.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.32%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by +7.08 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

33 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.57%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -6.31 pts on average.

What does 福裕 do? Company profile

電機機械／工具機 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4513 經網路查證為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，證券名稱為福裕，營運主體為福裕事業股份有限公司，英文名 FALCON MACHINE TOOLS CO., LTD.。公司成立於 1978-04-13，上櫃日期為 1998-03-25，總部位於彰化縣伸港鄉興工路34號。董事長為林聰麟，總經理為董上裕，發言人為張順福。公司官網基本資料列示實收資本額為新台幣1,143,619,210元、員工人數約300人；但公司登記與台股資訊網站截至本研究日附近資料顯示實收資本額已為新台幣1,437,619,210元、已發行普通股143,761,921股，差異主因可能與2024盈餘轉增資及後續私募普通股有關，故本研究以較新的登記／市場資料作為現況，並在 notes 標示。2024年年報列示母公司單一企業員工人數截至2025-03-31為153人，集團／官網口徑約300人。主要股東依2024年年報截至2025-04-27前十大股東資料，包括麟居投資股份有限公司10,765,270股、林聰麟8,882,070股、祿祺投資有限公司5,350,000股、麗升投資股份有限公司3,284,900股、鄭筱琴3,210,000股、花旗台灣商銀受託保管瑞銀歐洲SE投資專戶2,787,600股、黃建仁2,726,184股、財富隆有限公司1,926,000股、呂金發1,605,000股、董上裕1,349,270股。公司2022年後由清景麟團隊入主經營權，除工具機本業外，已新增住宅及大樓開發租售、不動產買賣及租賃等業務。

Business

福裕以自有品牌 CHEVALIER 生產與銷售工具機，核心產品包括精密磨床、工具磨床、CNC磨床、銑床、CNC銑床、CNC車床、立式車床、綜合加工機、龍門磨床、龍門銑床、工作母機零配件及代理國內外相關產品，也承接航太與精密零組件加工，並新增不動產開發、租售、代銷等業務。2024年合併營收新台幣1,193,689千元，產品營收比重為磨床32.11%、CNC磨床16.24%、CNC綜合加工機12.48%、CNC車床3.23%、立式車床4.94%、龍門磨床12.46%、龍門銑床1.90%、其他16.64%；其他包含零組件、外購商品買賣、服務維修收入及代銷收入等。銷售地區2024年以外銷為主，美洲38.79%、中國大陸36.83%、歐洲10.08%、台灣6.26%、其他8.04%。商業模式為接單生產與客製化工具機、經銷商／海外通路銷售、售後服務與維修零件收入；近年另透過集團資源切入不動產代銷、自建案與合建案。主要終端應用包括研磨加工、精密模具、半導體、電子、3C、航太、汽機車零件、石化、五金、一般金屬加工、風力發電、醫療器材、能源、國防、船舶、鐵路與自動化產線。2024年未有個別客戶銷售額占銷貨總額10%以上，顯示客戶較分散。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為工具機本業復甦、自動化／智慧化升級、綠色工具機與不動產新業務四條主軸。福裕年報指出，2024年台灣工具機出口受全球景氣不穩、通膨、高利率、地緣政治、中國需求不如預期與日圓貶值影響而衰退；但2025年後全球供應鏈重組、製造基地轉往印度、墨西哥、加拿大、土耳其、波蘭等市場，有機會帶來新工具機需求。技術面，公司將智慧技術、數位化、自動化、AI、節能減碳導入產品，研發重點包括SMART智慧機台、磨床軟體、自動化研磨、動壓／油靜壓主軸、SMART-24、SMART-Li24HS、FRG-1000S旋台磨、FSG-12/16ADIV+、Chevalier iBOX、iMCS通訊協定profinet、QP智能化與車銑床單機自動化等。公司取得ISO14955綠色工具機歐盟證書與公會綠色工具機金色標章，對應歐盟及客戶節能需求。產業端，公司鎖定航太、電動車、半導體、新能源、手工具、3C、5G、醫療等加工設備，並以Turn Key Solution、客製化高附加價值設備、國際售服據點強化接單。財務與新事業方面，公司114年度方針包含知識庫數位化／AI化、產品與行銷策略前瞻規劃、資訊安全藍圖，以及積極拓展不動產及代銷等新業務；2024年5月取得高雄捷運R20聯開案後續開發機會，且不動產代銷／建案可成為非工具機本業的獲利來源。已知2026年1至5月累計營收約6.15億元、年增約51.47%，但2025全年營收約10.08億元、EPS約-1.79元，顯示營運仍在低基期修復階段。主要風險包括全球資本支出循環仍弱、川普關稅及貿易壁壘、日圓貶值削弱台製工具機價格競爭力、中國工具機品質提升且低價競爭、控制器等關鍵零組件仰賴FANUC、三菱、海德漢、西門子等外商、匯率波動、原物料成本、地緣政治、出口管制、氣候與ESG成本，以及不動產開發景氣與資金占用風險。2026至2028的量化營收與獲利預測未見公司正式揭露，本段對2026至2028延伸判斷屬研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內鑄造供應商 供應鑄件，年報未揭露個別廠商名稱；鑄件為主要原料之一，通常依訂單交期供應。
  • 國內鈑金供應商 供應鈑金零件，年報未揭露個別廠商名稱；個別供應商進貨未占10%以上。
  • FANUC／台灣發那科 日本FANUC控制器透過台灣發那科採購，屬外商／未上市櫃供應鏈，交期約三至四個月。
  • 三菱電機 供應數值控制器，屬日本外商／非台股上市櫃供應商，交期約二至三個月。
  • 海德漢 歐洲控制器供應商，屬外商／非台股上市櫃，年報列示交期約六個月。
  • 西門子 歐洲控制器供應商，屬德國上市集團但非台股掛牌；年報列示交期約五至六個月。
  • 發格自動化（Fagor） 歐洲控制器供應商，屬外商／非台股上市櫃，年報列示交期約三個月。
  • 富田電機股份有限公司 4590 年報列為馬達國內供應商之一；富田-創為台股創新板上市公司，惟福裕未揭露採購金額。
  • 愛德利科技／愛德利公司 年報列為馬達國內供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，故stock_id設為null。
  • NSK 日本精密軸承供應商，屬外商／非台股掛牌。
  • NTN 日本精密軸承供應商，屬外商／非台股掛牌。
  • SKF／斯凱孚 歐洲精密軸承供應商，屬外商／非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • Chevalier Machinery, Inc. 福裕100%持股美國子公司，負責北美市場銷售、服務或通路支援；非台股掛牌。
  • 海外經銷商與售服據點 福裕以CHEVALIER品牌透過全球經銷商及售服網絡銷售，主要市場為美洲、中國大陸與歐洲；未揭露個別經銷商名稱。
  • 半導體與電子／3C加工客戶 CNC磨床、精密磨床、綜合加工機之終端應用，涵蓋陶瓷、石英、精密零件與高硬度材料加工；未揭露個別客戶且無單一客戶占比逾10%。
  • 航太與國防加工客戶 公司研發航太產業磨床與高精度加工設備，終端應用含航太零組件、複合材料、蜂巢結構等；未揭露個別客戶。
  • 汽車／電動車與輪圈加工客戶 立式車床、CNC車床、自動化鋁輪圈加工設備等應用於汽機車零件、輪圈、煞車盤與電動車零件加工；未揭露個別客戶。
  • 模具、手工具與一般金屬加工廠 磨床、龍門磨床、CNC綜合加工機的主要下游，包含精密模具、切削刀具研磨、五金與一般加工業；客戶分散。
  • 不動產買方與代銷案業主 福裕新增不動產代銷、自建案、合建案等業務，下游客戶為建案買方或委託代銷業主；非工具機本業，個案資訊未完整揭露。

Competitors

  • 東台精機股份有限公司 4526 台股上市櫃工具機廠，MoneyDJ列為福裕主要競爭對手之一；產品涵蓋工具機、自動化與PCB設備等。
  • 程泰機械股份有限公司 1583 台股上市櫃CNC車床與工具機廠，MoneyDJ列為福裕主要競爭對手之一。
  • 喬福機械工業股份有限公司 1540 台股上市櫃工具機廠，在切削中心機與車床領域與福裕部分產品重疊。
  • 瀧澤科技股份有限公司 6609 台股上市櫃CNC車床廠，MoneyDJ列為福裕主要競爭對手之一。
  • 高鋒工業股份有限公司 4510 台股上市櫃工具機廠，龍門機與加工中心機領域與福裕部分產品重疊。
  • 亞崴機電股份有限公司 1530 台股上市櫃工具機廠，主力為龍門五軸加工中心等，與福裕龍門與加工中心產品在部分市場競爭。
  • 百德機械股份有限公司 4563 台股上市櫃工具機廠，屬台灣工具機概念股，與福裕在高階加工設備與海外市場部分競爭。
  • DMG MORI／Mori Seiki 日本／德國國際工具機集團，MoneyDJ列為福裕主要國際競爭對手；非台股掛牌。
  • Okuma 日本大型工具機廠，在龍門機與高階加工設備市場具競爭力；非台股掛牌。
  • 台中精機 台灣未上市工具機廠，在車床、加工中心機等市場與福裕部分產品競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.