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5434

崇越 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 崇越 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 42Quality 73Growth 63Momentum 84Chips 87

Is 崇越 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 55th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 46th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.23
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 4,319 lots
  • sellers have 1,247 lots left, ~104 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +47% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 4,319 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 1,437 lots, has sold 37%, 908 left, ~104 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.02pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.69pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -388 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛美林凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-匯立
Distributing
摩根大通花旗環球港商野村兆豐證券元大-高雄台新
Desks
own scale
富邦證券法銀巴黎台新證券元大-館前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +4,319
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +1,467
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +1,263
    sold 13%
  • 凱基-台北 +1,244
    sold 10%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +968
    sold 25%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +265
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 908 left
    sold 37%· ~104 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 678 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 113 left
    sold 61%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐證券 69 left
    sold 51%· ~53 sessions to clear
  • 元大-高雄 52 left
    sold 57%· ~74 sessions to clear
  • 台新 29 left
    sold 63%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦證券 -1,145
    unclassified
  • 法銀巴黎 -606
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台新證券 -573
    unclassified
  • 元大-館前 -471
    unclassified
Still selling 1,247 lots ~104 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,811 absorbed / -205 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -160 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 8%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

71 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-08)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 55.1%, Sample 69, Median +1.31%, Excess +0.73%, Beat mkt rate 53.6%；60-day: Win 63.2%, Sample 68, Median +3.73%, Excess +2.39%, Beat mkt rate 54.4%；120-day: Win 69.7%, Sample 66, Median +7.47%, Excess +3.98%, Beat mkt rate 65.2%

120 days after: historical avg +9.96%

20-day +1.76%
60-day +5.5%
120-day +9.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.1%
63.2%
69.7%
Sample
69
68
66
Median
+1.31%
+3.73%
+7.47%
Excess
+0.73%
+2.39%
+3.98%
Beat mkt rate
53.6%
54.4%
65.2%

Over 66 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.96%, beat the market by 3.98 pts; win rate 69.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 39+65.3% +73.3% 100% +34.1%
20-40 401+42% +39.2% 100% +19%
40-60 886+36.8% +30% 99.5% +17.1%
60-80 769+17.2% +14.7% 85.6% +5.8%
80-100 You are here948+12.5% +6% 68.4% -1.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.28, at the 98.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+20.9%
Win rate 100% Excess +6.6%
123d
+15.6%
Win rate 81.8% Excess +7.4%
886d
Now
+8.1%
Win rate 65.5% Excess +0.1%
1193d
60-day momentum down
+26.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +12.7%
104d
+16.5%
Win rate 97.6% Excess +8%
455d
+4.9%
Win rate 65.2% Excess -2%
402d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1193 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.1%, win rate 65.5%, beat the market by 0.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.31%, win rate 64.4%, beating the market by +2.51 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

91 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.75%, win rate 54.8%, beating the market by +0.06 pts on average.

What does 崇越 do? Company profile

電子通路業；半導體與電子材料整合服務、環保工程與廠務系統 上市

Overview

5434 對應崇越科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1990/02/17，2000/05/24 上櫃，2003/08/25 上市，總部位於臺北市內湖區洲子街176號6樓。依 2026 年 5 月 26 日股東會後資訊，董事長由曾海華接任，總經理由李正榮專任；先前董事長為潘重良。實收資本額截至近期公開股市資料約新台幣 19.36 億元，已發行普通股約 193,657,655 股；2024 年報截至 2025/05/02 集團員工數 1,877 人。主要股東名單最後更新 2025/04/28：高毅投資事業 3.95%、嘉品投資開發 3.75%、謝金言 3.18%、臺灣銀行受託保管元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶 3.15%、富達低價位股基金專戶 3.00%、新光人壽 2.48%、崇越員工持股會信託專戶 1.87%、台北富邦商銀 1.55%、張瀠方 1.55%、花旗託管挪威中央銀行投資專戶 1.29%。公司定位為半導體、光電、電子材料、製程設備、零組件及環保綠能廠務系統之供應鏈平台與整合服務商。

Business

崇越主要商業模式為代理銷售、經銷、技術服務、設備與廠務工程整合，並透過關係企業與合資公司強化部分製造與維修能力。依 2024 年報，2024 年營業比重為：半導體相關產品 475.69 億元、83.5%；工程與廠務系統 60.22 億元、10.6%；LED/LCD/電子相關產品 17.27 億元、3.0%；綠能循環經濟相關 10.05 億元、1.7%；其他 6.73 億元、1.2%。主要產品包括矽晶圓、再生晶圓、深紫外線光阻液、高效能 I-line 光阻液、光阻黏著增強劑、光罩、光罩基板、光罩保護膜、晶圓廠製程用石英器具、石英坩堝、CVD/Etching/Clean 用化學材料與特殊氣體、CMP 研磨液、晶圓運輸盒、FOSB、FOUP、封裝材料、散熱傳導膠材、設備安裝維修、晶圓代工整合服務、真空泵浦維修等。環保與廠務系統包括純水、廢水及回收處理系統、無塵室、空調、消防、機電整合、一二次側配管、中央供酸、環保藥品、廢棄物清運處理等。公司揭露 2024 年單一匿名甲客戶占銷貨 20.9%，兩大匿名供應商分別占進貨 43.44% 與 17.61%；公開年報未揭露名稱。公司產品用途集中於晶圓製造、先進製程微影、晶圓搬運保護、CMP 平坦化、封裝保護與散熱、半導體及面板廠廢水與廠務工程。市場地位方面，崇越代理信越化學集團光阻產品，2024 年報稱 IC 製程用光阻液在台灣市場約 50%；代理信越半導體全線產品；與日本信越石英合資之石英器具業務，2024 年台灣石英市場市占率約 59%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能來自 AI、HPC、HBM、先進製程、先進封裝、海外晶圓廠擴建與環保廠務需求。公司 2024 年報指出 2025 年 AI、電動車、6G 等新興應用將帶動矽晶圓、光阻劑、封裝材料需求，並規劃導入新產品、機台設備翻修、建廠顧問、半導體零件專業清洗、Foundry Service 國際化、環評/廢水/綠能/循環回收整合及東南亞海外工程。2025 年前三季公司新聞稿顯示，受 AI 應用推動先進製程與封裝需求，光阻、矽晶圓、石英、晶圓載具及後段封裝材料需求穩定，前三季營收 502.8 億元、年增 22.4%，EPS 15.45 元。2026 年媒體與公司法說資料顯示，2025 年全年營收約 675.8 億元、EPS 21.81 元創高，2026 年目標仍偏向雙位數成長；成長項目包括 2/3 奈米與 EUV 光阻、矽晶圓、光罩基板、石英組件、CoWoS/HBM 相關後段封裝材料、散熱材料、資料中心機電空調與綠能整合、環保工程在手訂單、海外美國/日本/東南亞在地供應鏈平台。海外方面，公司已布局美國亞利桑那與德州，並規劃在愛達荷州博伊西就近服務美光；日本聚焦熊本 JASM、Rapidus 2 奈米、矽光子與 CPO 相關奈米壓印技術；東南亞則以廢水、機電工程與在地倉儲物流為重點。中長期策略包括由代理通路轉型為材料開發、製造、工程、維運一體化平台，發展自有材料、半導體中古設備維修交易平台、零件清洗、M&A、AI 與 ESG 相關事業及子公司 IPO。主要風險包括：營收高度集中半導體與光電材料設備、產品開發速度與價格產能受供應商限制、單一大客戶與信越集團供應依賴、匯率波動、地緣政治與美中科技管制、半導體景氣循環、成熟製程中國國產化競爭、海外營運成本高、環保工程執行與驗收時程、人才缺口及新事業商業模式不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 信越化學工業株式會社 日本上市公司；崇越長期代理其光阻、化學品與相關半導體材料，年報稱在高階黃光製程具領導地位。
  • 信越半導體 日本信越集團半導體矽晶圓供應商；崇越代理其全線產品，服務台灣及中國 IC 製造業者。
  • 日本信越石英 日本信越集團關係企業；與崇越在台合資崇越石英製造廠，供應晶圓廠製程用石英器具。
  • Fujimi 日本上市材料公司；公開報導指出崇越代理其研磨液等半導體材料。
  • Namics 日本未上市或非台股掛牌電子材料公司；產業資料列為崇越長期合作之封裝與電子材料供應商之一。
  • SCIVAX 日本非台股掛牌技術公司；崇越日本布局引進其奈米壓印設備與圖案化技術，應用於矽光子與 CPO 光學元件製程。
  • 崇越石英製造廠股份有限公司 崇越關係企業，未上市；生產半導體晶圓廠製程用石英器具，與日本信越石英合資。
  • 群越材料股份有限公司 崇越關係企業，未上市；進行光電、導熱、散熱與先進封裝相關新材料研發與生產。
  • 弘塑科技股份有限公司 3131 台股上櫃公司；崇越美國半導體供應鏈解決方案合作夥伴之一，偏設備與製程服務合作。
  • 千附實業股份有限公司 8383 台股上櫃公司；崇越美國半導體供應鏈解決方案合作夥伴之一，偏精密零組件與工程服務合作。
Downstream
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 台股上市晶圓代工龍頭；公開資料稱崇越為台積電半導體製程相關材料長期供應商，亦有美國與日本據點跟隨客戶擴廠。
  • 聯華電子股份有限公司 2303 台股上市晶圓代工公司；產業資料列為崇越半導體材料主要客戶之一。
  • 力晶積成電子製造股份有限公司 6770 台股上市晶圓代工與記憶體相關公司；產業資料列為崇越半導體材料主要客戶之一。
  • 日月光投資控股股份有限公司 3711 台股上市封測龍頭；產業資料列為崇越環保工程與廠務系統主要客戶群之一。
  • 友達光電股份有限公司 2409 台股上市面板公司；產業資料列為崇越環保工程與廠務系統主要客戶群之一。
  • 環球晶圓股份有限公司 6488 台股上櫃矽晶圓公司；公開報導稱崇越德州據點深化與環球晶等客戶合作。
  • Micron Technology 美國上市記憶體公司，非台股；公開報導稱美光為崇越重要客戶，崇越規劃在美國愛達荷州設據點就近支援。
  • NXP Semiconductors 荷蘭/美國掛牌半導體公司，非台股；公開報導稱崇越德州據點深化與恩智浦合作。
  • Intel 美國上市半導體公司，非台股；公開報導稱崇越美國團隊積極洽談合作。
  • Texas Instruments 美國上市半導體公司，非台股；公開報導稱崇越美國團隊積極洽談合作。

Competitors

  • 華立企業股份有限公司 3010 台股上市電子材料通路商；SEMI 與 MoneyDJ 資料均指出華立與崇越同為台積電半導體製程材料長期供應商，華立代理 JSR 等產品，是崇越半導體材料代理業務最直接同業。
  • 長華電材股份有限公司 8070 台股上櫃電子材料與封裝材料通路/製造商；與崇越在電子材料、封裝材料供應鏈部分重疊，但產品組合不同。
  • 益登科技股份有限公司 3048 台股上市電子零組件通路商；與崇越同屬電子通路類股，但益登偏 IC 與零組件代理，直接競爭程度低於華立。
  • TOKYO OHKA KOGYO 日本上市光阻材料供應商，非台股；年報列為 IC 製程用光阻液市場主要供應商之一，與崇越代理之信越光阻產品競爭。
  • JSR 日本材料公司，非台股；年報列為 IC 製程用光阻液市場主要供應商之一，華立代理 JSR 產品，與崇越代理信越產品競爭。
  • Dow Chemical 美國化學材料公司，非台股；年報列為 IC 製程用光阻液市場主要供應商之一。
  • 崑鼎投資控股股份有限公司 6803 台股上市環保工程與資源循環服務公司；與崇越環保工程、廢棄物處理與循環經濟業務有部分替代或競爭關係，但崑鼎非半導體材料通路商。
Sources（22）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.