Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 6015 宏遠證. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=6015

No install, open FinLab Studio

6015

宏遠證 Finance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宏遠證 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 76Quality 93Growth 98Momentum 82Chips 57

Is 宏遠證 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.2%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 6th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 27th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 342.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.55
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 4,290 lots
  • sellers have 9,728 lots left, ~257 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +37% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 4,290 lots since the start (sold 11%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 9,050 lots, has sold 36%, 5,765 left, ~18 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.11pp, mid holders +15, retail -5.39pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -197 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀合庫-基隆凱基-新店永豐金-彰化
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛美林元大證券富邦-永和元大-善化
Desks
own scale
凱基-城中新光康和兆豐-竹北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +4,290
    sold 11%
  • 凱基-台北 +3,637
    sold 21%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +2,667
    sold 19%
  • 合庫-基隆 +988
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-新店 +654
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-彰化 +515
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 5,765 left
    sold 36%· ~18 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 1,481 left
    sold 57%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 美林 496 left
    sold 76%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 913 left
    sold 35%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-永和 767 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 元大-善化 397 left
    sold 70%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基-城中 -3,696
    unclassified
  • 新光 -1,624
    unclassified
  • 康和 -1,578
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-竹北 -886
    unclassified
Still selling 9,728 lots ~257 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,644 absorbed / -7,436 sold sellers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 342.85%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

121 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 103, Median +1.13%, Excess +1.58%, Beat mkt rate 43.7%；60-day: Win 52.5%, Sample 101, Median +0.84%, Excess +3.09%, Beat mkt rate 41.6%；120-day: Win 52%, Sample 98, Median +3.02%, Excess +1.25%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%

120 days after: historical avg +9.59%

20-day +3.74%
60-day +8.45%
120-day +9.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
52.5%
52%
Sample
103
101
98
Median
+1.13%
+0.84%
+3.02%
Excess
+1.58%
+3.09%
+1.25%
Beat mkt rate
43.7%
41.6%
35.7%

Over 98 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.59%, beat the market by 1.25 pts; win rate 52%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 191-28.4% -27.9% 1.6% -19.3%
20-40 You are here527+37.1% +5.7% 58.4% +2.5%
40-60 220+95.5% +82.2% 70% +50.7%
60-80 184+1.1% -10.5% 22.3% -22.5%
80-100 382+13% +13.6% 79.3% -26.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.58, at the 26.7th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-16.7%
Win rate 15.5% Excess -17%
116d
-0.6%
Win rate 19.4% Excess -5.9%
222d
+25%
Win rate 59.4% Excess +2%
286d
60-day momentum down
+6.3%
Win rate 40.3% Excess -0.1%
484d
+36.5%
Win rate 57.1% Excess +14.5%
205d
+18.5%
Win rate 74.3% Excess -14.3%
311d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 116 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 16.7%, win rate 15.5%, lagged the market by 17%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.13%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.98 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.75%, win rate 58.7%, beating the market by +0.9 pts on average.

What does 宏遠證 do? Company profile

金融業／證券業 上櫃（證券櫃檯買賣中心）

Overview

6015 對應宏遠證券股份有限公司，為上櫃普通股，並非 ETF、ETN、特別股、權證或 REIT。公司成立於民國50年12月8日（西元1961年12月8日），原名大信證券，後曾更名吉祥證券，民國95年更名為宏遠證券；民國85年7月25日於櫃買中心掛牌交易。總部位於台北市信義路四段236號3至5樓及7樓。董事長姜克勤，總經理林禎民，發言人廖宏彬。公司統一編號03027502，資本總額新台幣60億元，實收資本額新台幣3,931,482,740元，已發行普通股約393,148仟股。依113年度年報，113年底資產總額約新台幣140億元、負債總額約86億元、股東權益約54億元、每股淨值13.88元、證券商資本適足率419%。員工規模方面，年報揭露113年度非擔任主管職務之全時員工451人，完整全體員工人數未在已查資料中明確確認。主要股東名單資料日期為114年3月24日：承達投資顧問股份有限公司持股35,160,200股、8.97%；三商福寶股份有限公司18,762,160股、4.79%；中國信託商銀受託宏遠證券股份有限公司員工專戶9,338,505股、2.38%；三商美邦人壽保險股份有限公司7,510,100股、1.92%；其後包括陳立民、花旗託管柏克萊資本SBL/PB投資專戶、曾世謙、賴蔡金桂、黃筱軒、唐愷鴻等。承達投資顧問之主要股東包括姜克勤、威林投資顧問、陳翔立、林禎民等；威林投資顧問主要股東包括姜克勤、江韶真、姜寧、姜雪影、姜雪芳。

Business

宏遠證券屬綜合證券商，主要業務包含證券經紀、證券自營、證券承銷、期貨經紀、期貨自營、期貨顧問、股務代理、財富管理、複委託、證券業務款項借貸、借券及私募股權相關業務。依113年度年報，113年經紀業務受託買賣總金額約新台幣1兆3,478億元，日成交均值約56億元，平均融資餘額約54億元；營業證券出售與評價利益合計約新台幣2.5億元；承銷業務總承銷金額約新台幣65億元，完成IPO與SPO主協辦案件共41件，財務顧問案件2案；股務代理業務代理136家公司，其中上市櫃50家、興櫃17家、公開發行及其他公司69家，服務股東約256萬戶；財富管理方面，子公司宏遠證券投顧完成併購瑞聯證券投顧，並取得瑞聯系列基金總代理，擴充基金銷售與財富管理業務。商業模式以交易手續費、融資融券與借貸相關收入、承銷與財務顧問費、股務代理費、自營投資損益、財富管理商品銷售與管理相關收益為主。客戶包含一般投資人、高資產與財富管理客戶、法人投資人、需要上市櫃興櫃輔導與籌資之發行公司、需要股務代理之公開發行公司，以及海外基金或資產管理商品之投資客群。113年營業收入約新台幣15.20億元、稅後淨利約3.37億元、EPS 0.91元；114年全年公開資訊顯示EPS約0.76元，115年1至5月累計營收約新台幣18.34億元，年增576.59%，但證券業營收受股市成交量、自營部位評價與資本市場案件時點影響大，月營收波動性高。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。公司於113年度年報中對114年指出，全球政策與關稅不確定性提高，台股行情可能受影響，但公司將持續投入金融科技與數位平台、提升線上交易體驗、強化投資人數位服務與資訊安全；同時擴增複委託交易量、擴大財富管理業務、增加金融商品與服務、推動證券業務款項借貸、借券業務、分戶帳業務，並積極爭取承銷、財務顧問與股務代理案件。中期至2028年的核心動能包括：一、台股成交量若維持高檔，經紀手續費與融資相關收入可受惠；二、台灣資本市場活絡、創新板與興櫃市場發展，有助承銷、財顧與股務代理案件；三、財富管理業務與瑞聯UBP系列基金總代理導入，可提高非經紀手續費收入比重；四、複委託、借券、分戶帳、款項借貸與數位平台可提升客戶資產黏著度；五、私募股權子公司設立後，若能與承銷、財顧、創投及企業籌資服務串接，可延伸資本市場服務鏈。主要風險包括：一、證券業景氣高度連動台股指數、成交量與市場風險偏好，若2025至2028年出現升息、全球景氣下修、地緣政治或關稅衝擊，經紀與承銷收入可能下滑；二、自營部位受股價、利率、匯率與流動性波動影響，損益可能放大；三、大型券商與金控券商在通路、資本、數位投資與財富管理商品線較具規模優勢；四、資安、詐騙防制、洗錢防制、KYC與金融消費者保護要求提高，合規與系統投資成本上升；五、財富管理與複委託雖有成長空間，但需面對銀行、投信、保經與大型券商競爭。整體而言，宏遠證的中期策略重點是由傳統經紀與承銷，向數位交易、財富管理、海外商品、借貸與股務代理等多元手續費收入擴張；但2026至2028具體財務目標未見公司正式揭露，相關成長判斷屬分析推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣證券交易所 證券集中市場交易平台與市場制度提供者，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 證券櫃檯買賣中心 宏遠證掛牌市場與上櫃、興櫃、債券等市場基礎設施提供者，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣期貨交易所 期貨與選擇權交易市場基礎設施，支援公司期貨經紀與期貨自營業務，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣集中保管結算所 證券集中保管、帳簿劃撥與交割結算基礎設施，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 證券金融公司與往來銀行 支援融資融券、款項借貸、資金調度、交割與金融交易服務；個別往來對象未完整揭露。
  • 瑞聯資產管理公司 UBP Asset Management 瑞士資產管理機構；透過宏遠投顧擔任在台註冊系列基金總代理，提供財富管理產品來源，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 金融資訊、交易系統與資安服務供應商 支援線上交易、行情資訊、風控、資安與數位平台，年報未揭露完整供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 一般投資人與高資產客戶 證券經紀、複委託、財富管理、借券、款項借貸與基金銷售服務對象，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 法人投資人 證券、期貨、債券與海外商品交易服務對象，包含境內外機構投資人，未揭露完整客戶名單。
  • 上市櫃、興櫃與公開發行公司 承銷、IPO/SPO、財務顧問與股務代理服務客戶；113年股務代理136家公司，承銷IPO與SPO主協辦41件，但未完整揭露客戶名單。
  • 私募股權與企業籌資客戶 潛在資本市場、財顧、私募股權與籌資服務對象；具體客戶與案件未完整揭露。

Competitors

  • 群益證 6005 上市證券商，於經紀、承銷、自營、財富管理與法人業務等領域競爭。
  • 統一證 2855 上市證券商，與宏遠證在經紀、承銷、自營及財富管理服務競爭。
  • 康和證 6016 上櫃證券商，業務涵蓋經紀、自營、承銷與期貨相關服務。
  • 致和證 5864 上櫃證券商，屬中小型券商競爭同業。
  • 大展證 6020 上櫃證券商，為證券經紀與自營等領域競爭者。
  • 美好證 6021 上櫃證券商，為證券經紀與財富管理相關競爭者。
  • 福邦證 6026 上櫃證券商，於經紀、承銷與資本市場業務競爭。
  • 元大證券 大型券商，隸屬元大金控；元大金控為上市公司2885，但元大證券本體未單獨上市。
  • 凱基證券 大型券商，隸屬凱基金控；凱基金控為上市公司2883，但凱基證券本體未單獨上市。
  • 富邦證券 大型券商，隸屬富邦金控；富邦金控為上市公司2881，但富邦證券本體未單獨上市。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.