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6173

信昌電 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 信昌電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 19Quality 70Growth 70Momentum 100Chips 18

Is 信昌電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~84% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 86th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 25.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 5,555 lots
  • sellers have 8,431 lots left, ~56 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +285% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 5,555 lots since the start (sold 16%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 4,158 lots, has sold 28%, 3,011 left, ~30 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +17.20pp, mid holders +17, retail -20.02pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -802 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美林元大證券統一元大-館前國票-安和
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券國泰證券永豐金證券港商野村中國信託
Desks
own scale
富邦-頭份富邦-南京國泰-敦南統一-內湖
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +5,555
    sold 16%
  • 美林 +5,520
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +3,918
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 統一 +3,262
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 元大-館前 +1,970
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-安和 +1,451
    sold 20%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 3,011 left
    sold 28%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 632 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 1,083 left
    sold 61%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 989 left
    sold 57%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 994 left
    sold 53%· ~56 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 829 left
    sold 58%· ~12 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-頭份 -1,064
    unclassified
  • 富邦-南京 -531
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -470
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 統一-內湖 -378
    unclassified
Still selling 8,431 lots ~56 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +7,505 absorbed / -6,195 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -63 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-16)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 30, Median -2.57%, Excess +3.24%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；60-day: Win 55.2%, Sample 29, Median +3.78%, Excess +3.77%, Beat mkt rate 55.2%；120-day: Win 60.7%, Sample 28, Median +11.78%, Excess +12.79%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +21.42%

20-day +5.02%
60-day +8.07%
120-day +21.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
55.2%
60.7%
Sample
30
29
28
Median
-2.57%
+3.78%
+11.78%
Excess
+3.24%
+3.77%
+12.79%
Beat mkt rate
46.7%
55.2%
50%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.42%, beat the market by 12.79 pts; win rate 60.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 25.62%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

75 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.3%, Sample 71, Median +1.89%, Excess +1.56%, Beat mkt rate 52.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 70, Median +0.78%, Excess +3.3%, Beat mkt rate 44.3%；120-day: Win 48.6%, Sample 70, Median -2.64%, Excess +4.13%, Beat mkt rate 34.3%

120 days after: historical avg +7.81%

20-day +2.16%
60-day +5.08%
120-day +7.81%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.3%
50%
48.6%
Sample
71
70
70
Median
+1.89%
+0.78%
-2.64%
Excess
+1.56%
+3.3%
+4.13%
Beat mkt rate
52.1%
44.3%
34.3%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.81%, beat the market by 4.13 pts; win rate 48.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1009+23% +10.3% 61.1% +11%
20-40 619+54.4% +17.9% 66.1% +22.8%
40-60 518+67.4% +32.1% 67.6% +53.1%
60-80 512+5% -4.4% 41% -7.1%
80-100 You are here44-36.2% -41.9% 13.6% -40%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 80.56, at the 92.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.4%
Win rate 53.7% Excess +1.2%
629d
+27.6%
Win rate 62.9% Excess +20.2%
712d
Now
+25.7%
Win rate 52.1% Excess +8.2%
305d
60-day momentum down
+13.4%
Win rate 58% Excess +5.1%
833d
+8.9%
Win rate 53.9% Excess +2.8%
336d
Insufficient data
(7d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 305 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 25.7%, win rate 52.1%, beat the market by 8.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +4.77 pts on average.

What does 信昌電 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件、MLCC、晶片電阻、介電陶瓷粉末 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

6173 對應信昌電子陶瓷股份有限公司，股票簡稱信昌電，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於1990年5月21日（公司法說簡報亦以1990年6月表述），上櫃日期為2002年4月19日，總部位於桃園市楊梅區高獅路566-1號。董事長為焦佑衡，總經理為陳淳學，發言人為羅夏盈。實收資本額約新台幣17.2億元，已發行普通股172,000,000股。2025年公司法說資料列員工人數748人；2024年年報列2024年底員工708人、2025年3月31日724人。主要營運據點包含台灣桃園廠、楊梅廠，中國吳江廠與東莞辦公室；2026年公開報導顯示台南六甲新廠已上樑，規劃高階陶瓷粉末產能。主要股東方面，2024年年報列華新科技股份有限公司持股74,186,468股、約43.13%，為最大股東；董事長焦佑衡持股約1,065,861股、約0.62%。公司屬華新科集團／華科事業群，2005年與華新集團策略聯盟。

Business

信昌電是垂直整合型被動元件廠，核心產品為積層陶瓷電容（MLCC／晶片電容）、晶片電阻、介電陶瓷粉末、電感，並延伸至壓敏電阻、熱敏電阻等。2024年年報揭露營業比重為晶片電容62%、介電瓷粉19%、晶片電阻16%、其他3%；2024年合併營收約新台幣37.24億元、毛利約7.98億元、營業利益約4.91億元、歸屬母公司淨利約4.98億元、EPS約2.91元。商業模式為自製介電陶瓷粉末與關鍵材料，向下整合至特殊規格MLCC、晶片電阻與電感，強調高功率、高可靠度、高耐壓、低損耗、客製化與安規／車規產品。主要應用涵蓋AI伺服器、資料中心、5G基地台、網通設備、電源供應器、PD3.1快充、工業機器人、電動車BMS／OBC／Inverter／48V DC-DC、太陽能逆變器、航空、醫療、特殊應用與消費電子。公司網站與法說資料指出，終端應用主要包含AI、工業、車用電子、航空、醫療、特殊應用、網通、消費電子；2025年第一季法說指出工業應用因AI Server、Data center、PD3.1快充、機器人馬達電源模組業績逐步發酵而增加，消費市場非聚焦重點、比例持續縮減，車用市場持平待後續承認專案發酵。公司2024年銷售區域為外銷56%、內銷44%，外銷中亞洲46%、美洲6%、歐洲4%。2024年年報並揭露，對華新科技銷貨佔銷貨總額約23%，來自華新科技與東莞華科電子之進貨分別佔進貨總額約18%與21%，主因策略聯盟與產線專業分工。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自AI伺服器與資料中心電源架構升級、48V與更高壓直流架構、BBU、第三代半導體GaN／SiC普及、電動車800V高壓平台、工業與人型機器人、低軌衛星、5G／6G與高頻通訊。公司2025年法說資料指出，隨GaN、SiC普及，終端產品功率需求提升，SMD高功率高可靠度被動元件需求增加；3216以上大尺寸MLCC數量占比雖僅約3.5%至4%，但需求金額可達約30%至35%，有利信昌電聚焦之高功率、高耐壓、大尺寸利基品。2026年5月法說相關報導指出，2026年第一季營收約10.17億元、年增8%，毛利率約28.4%，稼動率約85%至90%，高端特殊品交期延長至16週，AI伺服器電源元件成為2025至2026年成長主軸；公司規劃未來數年擴產，市場報導對資本支出有15億至20億元以上或每年逾15億元等不同說法，需以公司正式公告為準。六甲新廠方面，公開報導多指向2027年第三季量產或完工投產，聚焦高階陶瓷粉末，部分報導稱粉末產能將提升五成；此屬2026年媒體與法說整理資訊，仍應追蹤公司正式公告。2027至2028年若AI機櫃功耗提升、Rubin世代伺服器與BBU滲透、車用與工業高壓規格放量，信昌電的高壓MLCC、Mega Cap／堆疊式電容、NPO／X7R高階粉末與高功率電阻有機會提高產品組合與毛利率。主要風險包括：MLCC景氣循環與供需反轉、AI伺服器需求不如預期、客戶認證與導入時程延遲、日韓大廠與台灣同業競爭、原物料與能源成本、匯率、關稅與地緣政治、擴產投資回收風險、產品良率與高階粉末開發風險，以及對華新科集團交叉採購／銷售依存度較高。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 華新科技股份有限公司 2492 母公司／最大股東，持股約43.13%；與信昌電策略聯盟並進行產線專業分工。2024年年報揭露信昌電來自華新科技之進貨佔進貨總額約18%，同時對華新科技銷貨佔銷貨總額約23%。
  • 東莞華科電子有限公司 華新科技在中國大陸之關係企業／子公司，非台股掛牌；2024年年報揭露信昌電來自東莞華科電子之進貨佔進貨總額約21%。
  • 國內外陶瓷粉末、電極材料與基板材料供應商 年報說明被動元件上游包含介電瓷粉、陶瓷基板、氧化鋁基板、石英基板、導電接著劑、端極漿等材料供應商；信昌電未逐一揭露供應商名稱，且公司提高介電粉末自製比重以降低進貨集中風險。
  • 信昌電自製介電陶瓷粉末能力 6173 公司核心垂直整合能力；自製MLCC、圓板電容、微波瓷粉與LTCC等高階粉末原材料，降低對海外粉末廠依賴。
Downstream
  • 華新科技股份有限公司 2492 關係企業與主要銷售對象之一；2024年年報揭露信昌電對華新科技銷貨佔銷貨總額約23%，反映集團產銷整合與交叉銷售。
  • Digi-Key Electronics 公司官網列示eStore連結至Digi-Key，屬國際電子零組件線上通路，非台股掛牌。
  • 力禾科技股份有限公司 信昌電PDC代理商／通路商，未上市櫃。
  • AI伺服器、資料中心與電源供應器客戶 終端應用客戶群；公司法說與媒體報導指出AI Server、Data center、PSU、BBU與PD3.1快充帶動高功率大尺寸MLCC需求，但未公開具名主要客戶。
  • 車用電子與電動車電源系統客戶 終端應用涵蓋BMS、OBC、Inverter、48V DC-DC、800V高壓平台等；公司揭露產品通過車規與AEC-Q200相關應用，但未公開具名主要客戶。
  • 工業、機器人、網通、航空與醫療客戶 終端應用涵蓋工業機器人、大型工具機、5G基地台、IOT、伺服器、路由器、航空與醫療特殊應用；公司具AS9100航空製造認證，客戶多未公開具名。

Competitors

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.