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6442

光聖 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 光聖 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 17Quality 93Growth 93Momentum 54Chips 25

Is 光聖 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 8.7%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 83th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.7% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 116.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.33
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 638 lots
  • sellers have 979 lots left, ~190 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +49% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 638 lots since the start (sold 16%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 1,919 lots, has sold 28%, 1,386 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.45pp, mid holders +3, retail +0.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -550 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通港商野村元大-松江凱基-信義凱基-台南台新-新莊
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球凱基美林台新-台北國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
元大證券國泰證券永豐金證券台新證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +638
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +358
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 元大-松江 +305
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +263
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 凱基-台南 +202
    sold 0%
  • 台新-新莊 +94
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,386 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 589 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 凱基 449 left
    sold 30%· ~92 sessions to clear
  • 美林 118 left
    sold 69%· ~74 sessions to clear
  • 台新-台北 144 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 152 left
    sold 37%· ~190 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大證券 -1,212
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -840
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -782
    unclassified
  • 台新證券 -705
    unclassified
Still selling 979 lots ~190 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,002 absorbed / -218 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -416 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 116.02%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

48 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-14)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.4%, Sample 39, Median +3.4%, Excess +6.34%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%；60-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 38, Median +20.34%, Excess +23.53%, Beat mkt rate 71.1%；120-day: Win 70.3%, Sample 37, Median +22.98%, Excess +45.28%, Beat mkt rate 59.5%

120 days after: historical avg +59.83%

20-day +8.29%
60-day +29.53%
120-day +59.83%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.4%
73.7%
70.3%
Sample
39
38
37
Median
+3.4%
+20.34%
+22.98%
Excess
+6.34%
+23.53%
+45.28%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
71.1%
59.5%

Over 37 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 59.83%, beat the market by 45.28 pts; win rate 70.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 87+93.6% +63.4% 100% +68.3%
20-40 69+144.3% +133.1% 100% +112.5%
40-60 265+159.6% +29.3% 85.3% +116.4%
60-80 266+175.7% +35.7% 76.7% +126.6%
80-100 You are here648+134% +59% 93.8% +118.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 69.22, at the 89.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+40.3%
Win rate 98.6% Excess +28.9%
73d
+29.8%
Win rate 68% Excess +18.6%
341d
+66.3%
Win rate 80% Excess +54.3%
630d
60-day momentum down
+17.5%
Win rate 84.7% Excess +0.2%
59d
+61.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +41%
124d
Now
+91.7%
Win rate 76.6% Excess +65%
214d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 214 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 91.7%, win rate 76.6%, beat the market by 65%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +23.83%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +17.53 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.32%, win rate 59%, beating the market by +9.42 pts on average.

What does 光聖 do? Company profile

通信網路業；光通訊元件、光通訊整合模組與高頻 RF 連接器 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

光聖為光紅建聖股份有限公司，英文名 EZconn Corporation，股票代號 6442，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1996/09/04，2014/03/17 興櫃，2015/07/14 上市掛牌。總部位於新北市淡水區中正東路二段 27-8 號 13 樓，董事長為 CHEN, STEVE，總經理為張英華，發言人為莊國安。公開股市資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 7.807 億元，已發行普通股約 78,073,288 股；104 人力銀行揭露臺灣員工約 400 人，其他第三方資料則有 470 人或全球製造據點逾千人之說法，口徑不同。主要法人董事及持股曾見 SHC CONSOLIDATED INVESTORS LLC、EGTRAN CORPORATION、TRANSNATIONAL INVESTMENT LIMITED、加玖投資有限公司等；2023 年董事改選公告揭露當選時 SHC 持股 3,565,741 股、EGTRAN 持股 2,175,812 股、TRANSNATIONAL INVESTMENT LIMITED 持股 1,562,602 股、加玖投資持股 840,000 股。公司 2025 年合併財報顯示全年營收新台幣 10,527,227 仟元，較 2024 年 6,410,405 仟元成長；2026 年 1 至 5 月官網月營收合計 5,317,792 仟元。

Business

公司主營商品銷貨，依 2025 年合併財報收入政策，銷售來源為光通訊產品與高頻連接器產品。2025 年部門收入為光通訊 9,617,757 仟元、約占 91.36%，高頻連接器 909,470 仟元、約占 8.64%；部門利益分別為光通訊 2,568,784 仟元、高頻連接器 -29,803 仟元。2025 年外部客戶收入按地區為美洲 8,439,228 仟元、約占 80.17%，亞洲 971,414 仟元、歐洲 706,567 仟元、臺灣 410,018 仟元，顯示高度偏向美洲資料中心與通訊客戶。公司官網說明其產品涵蓋光通訊產品與 RF 產品，RF 產品包含 RF 同軸連接器、精密測試轉接頭、跳線、避雷器、濾波器、訊號放大器、偶極天線等；產品應用包括新世代 PON、資料通訊、衛星通訊、5G、IT DataCom、車用、航太、寬頻、醫療等。公開法說摘要與產業報導指出，近年主要成長來自 AI 資料中心用高密度光纖、光被動元件與機架內/機架間互連方案，並延伸至 CPO、外部光源、DOCSIS 4.0、低軌衛星、高頻與微小化 RF 連接器等高附加價值市場。2025 年財報揭露單一 A 客戶銷貨收入 6,553,573 仟元、占全年營收 63%，2024 年該客戶占 62%；公司未公開客戶名稱，市場報導常以美系雲端服務供應商、資料中心大廠或 Google/Meta/NVIDIA 供應鏈描述，但可查證財報僅確認為 A 客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已成為公司結構性轉折年，全年營收約 105.27 億元，光通訊部門占比逾九成，主要受惠 AI 資料中心、雲端服務商資本支出與高速光互連需求。2026 年公司在 5 月股東會與 6 月法說摘要中表示，若料源穩定，全年營收與毛利率有望優於 2025 年，營收維持雙位數成長；光被動元件仍為主軸，訂單能見度據法說摘要已看到 2026 年底，產能處於滿載，並在臺灣、中國及菲律賓持續擴產。2026 年 1 至 5 月官網月營收 53.18 億元，年增幅度受月度出貨節奏影響明顯，其中 2026 年 5 月單月 17.26 億元，年增 116.02%。2026 至 2028 年主要動能預估來自三條線：第一，AI 伺服器與資料中心從 400G/800G 向 1.6T 以上升級，帶動高芯數光纖、光纖陣列、光被動元件、光收發與 AOC/高速互連需求；第二，CPO/矽光子與外部光源架構開始試產或導入，光聖透過轉投資合聖科技與英特磊-KY 策略換股，嘗試向上游三五族磊晶、雷射光源與光學封裝整合；第三，RF 產品由傳統有線電視逐步轉向 DOCSIS 4.0、5G/6G、低軌衛星、車用、航太國防、測試量測與醫療等較高毛利市場。主要風險包括：單一 A 客戶占比高導致客戶集中風險；AI 資料中心資本支出若遞延或規格轉換失敗，出貨波動會放大；CPO/矽光子仍處技術與量產驗證期，2027 至 2028 年商轉節奏不確定；公司快速擴產可能帶來良率、人力、交期與庫存風險；新台幣匯率、關稅、地緣政治與中國/非中國產能配置會影響成本與接單；光通訊同業若切入高密度光纖或光模組整合，可能壓縮價格與毛利。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 合聖科技股份有限公司 光聖關聯企業及轉投資光通訊業者；2025 年合併財報揭露光聖向合聖進貨特殊產品，2026 年報導指出合聖展示 FAU、矽光子與 CPO 相關光學互連方案，未上市櫃。
  • 英特磊科技股份有限公司（IET-KY） 4971 三五族磊晶與光電材料/雷射相關上游夥伴；公開報導指出光聖與英特磊以策略換股結盟，光聖預計持有英特磊約 15.26% 股權，強化 AI 矽光子與 CPO 上游布局。
  • 光纖、陶瓷插芯、精密金屬加工、光學元件與自動化設備供應商 產業上游類別；光聖產品需光纖線材、連接器材料、精密加工與測試設備。具體直接供應商名單未在已查公開資料完整揭露。
Downstream
  • A 客戶 2025 年合併財報揭露單一 A 客戶銷貨收入達 6,553,573 仟元，占全年營收 63%；公司未揭露名稱，屬主要美洲客戶，市場多解讀為美系大型資料中心或雲端服務供應鏈。
  • 美系雲端服務商與 AI 資料中心客戶 下游應用為 AI 資料中心、機架內與機架間高速互連、高密度光纖與光被動元件；Google、Meta、NVIDIA 等名稱屬市場報導與推測，非公司財報直接揭露。
  • 電信商、寬頻網路、衛星通訊、5G/6G、車用、航太國防與醫療設備客戶 光聖官網列示之應用市場；包含 PON、Data Communication、Satellite Communication、5G、IT DataCom、AutoMotive、AeroSpace、Broad Band、Health Care 等。

Competitors

  • 上詮光纖通信 3363 台股上櫃光通訊元件與光纖被動元件廠，與光聖在光纖連接、被動元件與資料中心應用具競爭或比價關係。
  • 波若威科技 3163 台股上櫃光通訊元件與光纖產品廠，屬光通訊零組件同業。
  • 聯亞光電 3081 台股上櫃光通訊雷射二極體與磊晶相關廠，部分產品位於光通訊上游，同時為光通訊族群比較對象。
  • 華星光通科技 4979 台股上市光收發模組與光通訊產品廠，與光聖在資料中心光通訊應用有產業競合。
  • 聯鈞光電 3450 台股上市光通訊主動元件、光收發模組與光電元件廠，屬光通訊供應鏈同業。
  • 訊芯-KY 6451 台股上市光通訊封裝與矽光子/CPO 概念同業，市場常與光聖在 CPO 與 AI 光通訊主題中比較。
  • IET-KY 英特磊 4971 三五族磊晶與光電材料廠；與光聖為策略結盟夥伴，但在光源與矽光子上游技術布局上亦屬光通訊價值鏈重要比較公司。
  • 昇達科技 3491 台股上櫃微波、毫米波、衛星通訊與高頻通訊元件廠；在 RF、衛星與高頻連接應用領域與光聖部分產品線有比較關係。
  • 中磊電子 5388 台股上櫃網通設備廠；並非光聖直接同型產品廠，但在通訊網路與寬頻設備價值鏈中屬下游或相鄰同業。
  • Lumentum Holdings 美國上市光通訊雷射與光電元件大廠，非台股；在高速光通訊、資料中心光源與 CPO 相關市場為國際競爭/比較對象。
  • Coherent Corp. 美國上市光電材料、雷射與光通訊元件大廠，非台股；為全球光通訊上游與模組價值鏈重要競爭者。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國上市半導體與網通晶片大廠，非台股；在交換晶片、光互連與 CPO 生態中為國際級競爭與合作生態核心廠商。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.