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6494

九齊 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 九齊 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 53Growth 89Momentum 83Chips 40

Is 九齊 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 48th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 79.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.17
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 美林 holds 280 lots
  • sellers have 553 lots left, ~44 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +85% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美林 has accumulated 280 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 591 lots, has sold 63%, 217 left, ~14 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.05pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -62 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美林國泰-敦南凱基-斗六元大證券元大-成功華南永昌-岡山
Distributing
凱基-台北摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利亞東-新竹台新永豐金-新竹
Desks
own scale
康和-台中元大-東泰美好台新-城中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美林 +280
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +159
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-斗六 +140
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +114
    sold 15%
  • 元大-成功 +90
    sold 15%
  • 華南永昌-岡山 +82
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 217 left
    sold 63%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 155 left
    sold 50%· ~40 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 44 left
    sold 68%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • 亞東-新竹 71 left
    sold 47%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 台新 12 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-新竹 19 left
    sold 78%· ~3 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 康和-台中 -154
    unclassified
  • 元大-東泰 -110
    unclassified
  • 美好 -97
    unclassified
  • 台新-城中 -86
    unclassified
Still selling 553 lots ~44 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +866 absorbed / -373 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -53 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2017-05-18)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 13, Median +5.33%, Excess +5.54%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +20.4%, Excess +23.25%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +23.21%, Excess +39.69%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg +51.34%

20-day +9.9%
60-day +29.67%
120-day +51.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.2%
66.7%
66.7%
Sample
13
12
12
Median
+5.33%
+20.4%
+23.21%
Excess
+5.54%
+23.25%
+39.69%
Beat mkt rate
61.5%
66.7%
75%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 51.34%, beat the market by 39.69 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 79.43%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

33 historical occurrences (since 2016-05-09)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 62.1%, Sample 29, Median +2.77%, Excess +2.53%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%；60-day: Win 70.4%, Sample 27, Median +15.88%, Excess +15.6%, Beat mkt rate 63%；120-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +14.8%, Excess +29.28%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +35.38%

20-day +5.53%
60-day +20.76%
120-day +35.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.1%
70.4%
57.7%
Sample
29
27
26
Median
+2.77%
+15.88%
+14.8%
Excess
+2.53%
+15.6%
+29.28%
Beat mkt rate
48.3%
63%
50%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 35.38%, beat the market by 29.28 pts; win rate 57.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 345+38.7% +11.9% 62% +13.4%
20-40 119+71.8% +12.8% 52.9% +56.2%
40-60 141+178.7% +223.7% 98.6% +148.1%
60-80 158+46.3% +14% 70.3% +14.5%
80-100 You are here502+11.2% -11.6% 42.2% -5.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 561.67, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.4%
Win rate 32.3% Excess -13%
189d
+25.6%
Win rate 59.2% Excess +17.2%
184d
Now
+43.1%
Win rate 61.4% Excess +28.4%
355d
60-day momentum down
-6.3%
Win rate 48.2% Excess -12.6%
251d
+99.9%
Win rate 84.6% Excess +81.2%
65d
-4%
Win rate 33.4% Excess -15.8%
341d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 355 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 43.1%, win rate 61.4%, beat the market by 28.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.66%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +11.69 pts on average.

What does 九齊 do? Company profile

半導體業／IC設計／消費性IC 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

九齊科技股份有限公司為營運公司普通股，股票代號6494，簡稱九齊，英文名Nyquest Technology Co., Ltd.。公司成立於2006年10月，總部及研發營運據點位於新竹市水利路81號7樓之1，2010年於深圳設立九齊微電子（深圳）有限公司，2016年5月上櫃。公司定位為專業IC設計公司，核心業務為積體電路設計研發、應用設計解決方案與行銷；晶片製造、封裝與測試主要委由專業代工廠執行。依櫃買中心及公司揭露，董事長為陳建隆，總經理為陳建隆，發言人為黃英傑。公司官網揭露目前實收資本額約新台幣3.16億元；113年度年報列示股本315,596,900元。截至114年3月31日員工147人，其中研發101人、業務20人、管理26人。113年主要股東包括松勇投資股份有限公司持股5.23%、陳建隆2.39%、林鋅安1.88%、鄭富美1.58%、匯豐台灣商銀受託保管阿卡迪恩新興市場微量資本證券主基金投資專戶1.43%、慧聚投資1.34%、黃鈴茹1.29%、范世君1.26%、中國信託商銀受九齊科技員工持股會1.14%、滕有梅1.13%。

Business

九齊主要從事消費性IC之研發、設計與銷售，提供客戶系統整合方案、軟體設計支援平台、應用程式開發服務與技術支援。113年度產品營收為微控制器IC 1,157,129仟元、占86.01%；語音控制IC 173,456仟元、占12.90%；其他14,715仟元、占1.09%；合計營收1,345,300仟元。主要產品包含語音控制IC、4/8/32位元MCU、內建ROM/OTP/MTP/eFlash記憶體之消費型控制晶片，以及馬達驅動、功率放大器、電容式觸控輸入、LED/LCD驅動、快閃記憶體等周邊IC。應用包括發聲玩具、智能玩具、學習機、禮品、小家電、醫療器材、電動車、電腦周邊、燈串控制、量測、工業控制與物聯網等。商業模式為Fabless IC設計，公司負責規格制定、IC設計、系統與軟體設計、Tape-out、售後服務與通路拓展，光罩、晶圓製造、晶圓測試、切割、封裝與最終測試委外。銷售以亞洲為主，113年度外銷亞洲1,298,073仟元、占96.49%，內銷47,227仟元、占3.51%。公司採專業代理商制度拓展市場，客戶名稱多以A/B/C/D公司匿名揭露；113年度前三大銷貨客戶占比分別為22.46%、17.68%、12.88%。MoneyDJ資料指出公司產品透過代理通路切入陸系玩具品牌廠，客戶包括國際玩具大廠等，但年報未揭露具名客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司在113年度年報對114年度營運計畫指出，面對美國政策、各國央行貨幣政策不同步、中國內需疲弱等不確定性，將延續與上游晶圓廠、封測廠更緊密合作，降低生產成本並適時研發新製程，以增加產值、維持競爭力；同時持續調整客戶組合，爭取毛利率優化並維護市占率。2025年成長動能主要來自MCU需求擴大、消費型與工規型8位元MCU、OTP/MTP產品、新製程產品、小家電與多元應用導入；壓力則來自語音玩具市場低迷、中國內需疲弱、價格競爭與產能過剩。2026年：截至2026年5月，Yahoo股市揭露九齊2026年5月單月營收157,688仟元、年增79.43%，2026年4月155,207仟元，2026年3月170,826仟元，顯示短期營收較2025低基期回升；但是否能轉化為毛利率與獲利改善，仍取決於產品組合、晶圓成本、價格競爭與終端玩具／小家電需求。2026至2028年：中期機會包括高階語音32位元MCU導入智能玩具、學習機、語音辨識與變音應用；新世代4/8位元多通道語音與Melody控制器；新製程OTP/MTP消費型與工規型8位元MCU；整合高精度ADC、抗雜訊觸控、LCD/LED驅動、鋰電池充電與MCU的低成本方案；以及小家電、量測、醫療、工業控制與物聯網應用擴大。產業面，年報引用資策會MIC預估2025年台灣半導體整體產值成長15.9%、IC設計成長14%，AI PC、AI手機與Edge AI帶動供應鏈商機；對九齊而言，較直接受益點應在低功耗、高性價比、客製化語音與控制IC，而非先進製程AI晶片。主要風險包括終端玩具需求復甦不如預期、客戶與產品集中於亞洲消費電子、競爭者價格壓力、晶圓代工與封測成本或產能波動、匯率、關稅與地緣政治、主要供應商集中、客戶匿名且集中度偏高，以及低階MCU市場規格成熟導致毛利率承壓。2027至2028未見公司具體財測，以上為依公司研發方向、產業趨勢與近期營收資料所作之研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 新唐科技股份有限公司 4919 主要晶圓供應商之一；113年度年報揭露新唐科技為主要供應商，113年進貨91,596仟元、占進貨淨額12.22%；另與九齊有111/01/01至114/12/31產能預約合約。新唐子公司松勇投資為九齊法人董事。
  • 甲公司 年報匿名揭露之主要晶圓供應商，113年進貨355,554仟元、占47.43%，供應商名稱未公開，無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 乙公司 年報匿名揭露之主要晶圓供應商，113年進貨76,435仟元、占10.20%，供應商名稱未公開，無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 合肥晶合集成電路股份有限公司 中國大陸晶圓代工業者；113年度年報列示與九齊有113/01/01至115/12/31產能預約合約，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 國內外晶圓代工及封裝測試廠 九齊採Fabless模式，晶圓製造、晶圓測試、切割、IC封裝與最終測試委由專業廠商代工；除部分主要供應商外，公司未完整具名揭露。
Downstream
  • A公司 年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨302,150仟元、占22.46%；公司未揭露名稱，無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • B公司 年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨237,914仟元、占17.68%；公司未揭露名稱，無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • C公司 年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨173,236仟元、占12.88%；公司未揭露名稱，無法確認是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • D公司 年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，113年銷貨115,413仟元、占8.58%；年報指出因語音控制IC比重減少，D公司銷售減少；公司未揭露名稱。
  • 代理通路商與玩具／小家電品牌客戶 公司採專業代理商制度拓展市場，產品終端應用於發聲玩具、智能玩具、學習機、小家電、醫療器材、電動車、電腦周邊、燈串控制、量測與工業控制；具名終端客戶未公開。

Competitors

Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.