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8048

德勝 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 德勝 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 46Quality 70Growth 89Momentum 67Chips 67

Is 德勝 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 77th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 54th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 73.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.89
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一 holds 590 lots
  • sellers have 281 lots left, ~32 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +22% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 590 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 統一-板橋 peaked at 213 lots, has sold 90%, 22 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.53pp, mid holders +4, retail -5.82pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -150 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛口袋證券元大證券華南永昌-中正
Distributing
統一-板橋台新-西松港商野村元富-新竹元富-新莊第一金-華江
Desks
own scale
兆豐-公益香港上海匯豐永豐金-員林群益金鼎-內湖
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一 +590
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +576
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +556
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 口袋證券 +379
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +326
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-中正 +326
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 統一-板橋 22 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 台新-西松 35 left
    sold 82%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 112 left
    sold 32%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 元富-新竹 73 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 元富-新莊 48 left
    sold 41%· paused recently
  • 第一金-華江 26 left
    sold 67%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-公益 -269
    unclassified
  • 香港上海匯豐 -175
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-員林 -137
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-內湖 -128
    unclassified
Still selling 281 lots ~33 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,231 absorbed / -207 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -112 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 73.03%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

77 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-08)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 63.5%, Sample 74, Median +4.41%, Excess +4.12%, Beat mkt rate 59.5%；60-day: Win 65.3%, Sample 72, Median +6.15%, Excess +9.01%, Beat mkt rate 59.7%；120-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 72, Median +7.51%, Excess +13.12%, Beat mkt rate 47.2%

120 days after: historical avg +21.22%

20-day +5.42%
60-day +12.69%
120-day +21.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.5%
65.3%
58.3%
Sample
74
72
72
Median
+4.41%
+6.15%
+7.51%
Excess
+4.12%
+9.01%
+13.12%
Beat mkt rate
59.5%
59.7%
47.2%

Over 72 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.22%, beat the market by 13.12 pts; win rate 58.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1189+22.8% +23.8% 67.3% +13.8%
20-40 712+7.4% -6.7% 45.6% -7.6%
40-60 568+65.5% +56.9% 71.8% +42.1%
60-80 318+33.4% +24.4% 78.9% -1.3%
80-100 You are here220+11.5% +3.1% 51.8% -5.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 25.33, at the 89.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+12.5%
Win rate 59% Excess +10.2%
741d
+39.2%
Win rate 76.1% Excess +29.8%
549d
Now
+15.8%
Win rate 54.5% Excess +2.9%
442d
60-day momentum down
+4.4%
Win rate 47.5% Excess -3.5%
848d
+5.4%
Win rate 47.5% Excess -6.3%
415d
+5.1%
Win rate 36.6% Excess -11%
131d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 442 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.8%, win rate 54.5%, beat the market by 2.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.24%, win rate 73.7%, beating the market by +5.78 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.73%, win rate 40.9%, beating the market by +2.05 pts on average.

What does 德勝 do? Company profile

通信網路業 上櫃（櫃買中心 TPEx）

Overview

8048 對應證券為德勝科技股份有限公司，為上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1981/07/14，前稱德勝電腦股份有限公司，2001 年變更為現名；公開發行日 1998/07/14，興櫃日 2003/01/14，上櫃日 2009/09/08。總部與主要營運據點位於台北市南港區南港路三段 50 巷，法說資料列公司地址為台北市南港路三段50巷1號3樓，近期季報封面列地址為台北市南港區南港路三段50巷21號5樓。董事長為林坤銘，總經理與發言人為楊育哲；統一編號 05094603；2026/06/17 可查資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 5.77 億元、發行普通股約 57,705,752 股、特別股 0 股。2026/05 董監持股資料顯示董事及監察人合計持股約 5,092 張、占發行比例 8.82%、質押 0；主要董監持股包含董事慧宇投資股份有限公司-林玲玉約 2,538 張、董事長林坤銘約 1,522 張、董事楊育哲約 467 張、董事富禾投資股份有限公司-邱啟新約 464 張、董事董清銓約 73 張。2024 永續報告揭露公司 2024 年非主管全時員工年薪平均數約 862 仟元、中位數約 810 仟元；員工總人數未在本次查得資料中明確確認。

Business

德勝定位為網通產品 ODM，產品定位為高度軟硬體客製化的中高階網通產品，專注經營重視產品軟體功能價值的客戶群。主要產品包括 1G/2.5G/10G/25G/40G/100G 網路交換器、光纖網路交換器、PoE+/PoE++ 網路交換器、光纖網路轉換器與介面卡、工規/戶外/運營商規格之交換器與轉換器、支援雲端網管/SDN/L3/L2 的交換器、DMS、衛星數據服務應用設備等。應用場域包含運營商 4G/5G 基礎建設、中小企業網路、無線網路連線、IP 監控、PoE 智慧照明、衛星數據服務、船舶/無人機/地面站通訊聯網、軍事、商業、航運與航空救援等。2025 年 1-11 月自結營收 928,682 仟元、年增 0.25%；產品別占比為網路交換器 68.85%、工規網路交換器 15.74%、其他 9.04%、光纖轉換器 3.73%、光纖介面卡 2.51%、工規光纖轉換器 0.13%。同期間區域別以歐洲 58.40%、美洲 25.90% 為主，亞洲 8.07%、台灣 7.35%，公司亦揭露客戶分布約歐美 80%、日韓印澳台約 20%。商業模式以 ODM 專案開發、客製化硬體/軟體規格、台灣設計製造、研發測試與客戶協銷為核心；終端客戶多透過系統整合商、設備商間接出貨至有線電視、電信營運商、企業與垂直應用市場，具體客戶名稱多未公開。2025 Q1-Q3 合併營收 721,253 仟元、年減 6%，但毛利率由 2024 Q1-Q3 的 30.36% 升至 34.17%，營業淨利年增 18%，EPS 約 1.67 元。2025 全年營收據公開月營收彙整約 10.11 億元、年減 0.76%；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約 5.18 億元、年增約 25.03%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 年展望重點在於網路升級、歐美客戶回補、5G/企業網路/PoE/工規與衛星通訊等垂直應用延伸。成長動能包括：一、企業與運營商持續升級至高速交換器，德勝已量產或開發 L3/Stacking、1G/10G/25G、40G/100G 中高速交換器與 SDN OpenFlow、L2/L3 PoE+ Hybrid Mode 產品；二、5G 小基站應用需要 SyncE/PTP 高精度時間同步、PoE++ 90W 供電與運營商網管相容性；三、WiFi 6/7 AP、NAS、IP Cam、IP Phone、IP 監控與企業網管需求推動 PoE 與網管交換器；四、PoE 智慧照明結合 IoT Sensor、照明網管與 DMS 專利，有助切入節能建築與智慧設施；五、衛星數據服務應用可延伸至船舶、無人機、地面站、軍事、商業、航運與救援等韌性通訊場景；六、NDAA/TAA 合規設計有助因應美中貿易戰、關稅戰與歐美客戶供應鏈合規要求。2025 Q3 單季營收年增 34%、毛利率 38.75%、營業淨利年增 230%，顯示產品組合與成本控管對獲利有正面貢獻；2026 年 1-5 月營收明顯回升亦支持短期接單改善。主要風險包含：全球網通需求循環與客戶庫存調整、單一區域集中於歐美造成匯率與景氣敏感度、美元應收應付款造成匯兌損益波動、DDR/IC/光纖收發器/PCB/電源等零組件價格與交期變化、ODM 客戶議價與專案延遲、低價競爭、資安與產品品質責任、關稅與地緣政治合規成本。2027-2028 年公司在 ESG 資訊揭露時程上預計於年報開始揭露個體確信情形與合併確信情形；此為永續揭露進度，不等同營收預測。以上展望含研究推估，非公司財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 瑞昱半導體 2379 網通 IC、乙太網路控制晶片與通訊晶片供應鏈代表公司；本次未查得其為德勝直接供應商，列為產業上游參考。
  • 光聖 6442 光通訊元件與模組供應鏈代表公司；德勝產品使用光纖收發器等零組件，但未確認直接供應關係。
  • 上詮 3363 光纖通訊被動元件與光通訊供應鏈公司；列為光纖網通設備可能上游類別參考，非已確認直接供應商。
  • 欣興電子 3037 PCB 印刷電路板供應鏈代表公司；德勝光纖設備主要原料包含印刷電路板，未確認直接供應關係。
  • 台達電 2308 電源供應器、電源管理與工業電源供應鏈代表公司；德勝重要原料包含電源供應器，未確認直接供應關係。
  • 光纖收發器、IC、PCB、電源供應器、變壓器、轉換器與外殼供應商 MoneyDJ 彙整德勝光纖設備主要原料包含 IC、光纖收發器、印刷電路板、電源供應器、變壓器、轉換器、外殼等；具體直接供應商名單未公開。
Downstream
  • 歐美系統整合商與設備商 公司產品主要透過系統整合商、設備商間接出貨；具體客戶多未揭露，且歐美客戶約占主要銷售區域。
  • 有線電視與電信業者 媒體報導與產業資料指出德勝產品間接出貨予有線電視、電信業者，作為光纖交換、轉換、網管與運營商基礎設備。
  • 企業網路、IP 監控、PoE 智慧照明、衛星通訊與韌性通訊應用客戶 終端應用包含中小企業網路、WiFi 6/7 AP、NAS、IP Cam、IP Phone、智慧照明、船舶、無人機、地面站、軍事、商業、航運與航空救援等；多為專案或垂直市場客戶，未揭露公司名稱。
  • 中華電信 2412 台灣電信營運商代表公司，屬德勝產品可能終端應用產業；未確認為德勝直接或間接客戶。
  • 台灣大哥大 3045 台灣電信營運商代表公司，屬德勝產品可能終端應用產業；未確認為德勝直接或間接客戶。

Competitors

  • 智邦科技 2345 台股網通與交換器大廠，資料中心與白牌交換器規模較大，屬交換器/網通設備競爭與比較對象。
  • 明泰科技 3380 網通設備與交換器 ODM/製造商，布局資料中心與高速交換器，屬同業競爭對手。
  • 仲琦科技 2419 網通設備公司，產品涵蓋寬頻、電信與網通設備，屬同業比較對象。
  • 友訊科技 2332 網通設備品牌與企業網路設備供應商，與德勝在交換器與網通產品領域有重疊。
  • 合勤控 3704 Zyxel 相關網通設備集團，產品涵蓋寬頻、交換器、企業網路設備；舊資料常見合勤代號 2391，現上市控股代號為 3704。
  • 亞旭電腦 網通設備與寬頻產品 ODM/製造商，屬台灣網通產業同業。
  • 訊舟科技 3047 網通設備品牌與通路公司，產品含交換器、路由器、無線網路設備。
  • 台揚科技 2314 通訊網路設備與無線寬頻相關公司，屬通信網路產業比較對象。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.