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8086

宏捷科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宏捷科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 82Growth 78Momentum 80Chips 33

Is 宏捷科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~91% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 67th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 47th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.17
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 5,164 lots
  • sellers have 5,684 lots left, ~667 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +47% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 5,164 lots since the start (sold 6%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 3,863 lots, has sold 29%, 2,725 left, ~145 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.11pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.43pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,682 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利華南永昌-竹北花旗環球國泰-松江富邦-公益玉山-台中
Distributing
港商野村摩根大通凱基-台北美林陽信富邦-竹科
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛港商麥格理國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,164
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-竹北 +3,218
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +1,380
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-松江 +283
    sold 11%
  • 富邦-公益 +231
    sold 24%
  • 玉山-台中 +229
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商野村 2,725 left
    sold 29%· ~145 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 467 left
    sold 83%· ~667 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 695 left
    sold 65%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 美林 1,020 left
    sold 38%· ~268 sessions to clear
  • 陽信 270 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 富邦-竹科 271 left
    sold 36%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -2,505
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -2,283
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商麥格理 -1,271
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國票-敦北法人 -1,245
    unclassified
Still selling 5,684 lots ~667 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,464 absorbed / -1,508 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,507 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 36.98%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

96 historical occurrences (since 2009-06-01)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.4%, Sample 88, Median +0.63%, Excess +0.35%, Beat mkt rate 44.3%；60-day: Win 52.3%, Sample 86, Median +1.31%, Excess +1.02%, Beat mkt rate 40.7%；120-day: Win 50.6%, Sample 83, Median +0.89%, Excess +4.26%, Beat mkt rate 36.1%

120 days after: historical avg +12.9%

20-day +1.97%
60-day +6.01%
120-day +12.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.4%
52.3%
50.6%
Sample
88
86
83
Median
+0.63%
+1.31%
+0.89%
Excess
+0.35%
+1.02%
+4.26%
Beat mkt rate
44.3%
40.7%
36.1%

Over 83 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.9%, beat the market by 4.26 pts; win rate 50.6%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-15)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 60, Median +2.92%, Excess +2.24%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；60-day: Win 61%, Sample 59, Median +4.13%, Excess +4.38%, Beat mkt rate 52.5%；120-day: Win 62.7%, Sample 59, Median +11.87%, Excess +9.34%, Beat mkt rate 57.6%

120 days after: historical avg +19.18%

20-day +3.51%
60-day +9.41%
120-day +19.18%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
61%
62.7%
Sample
60
59
59
Median
+2.92%
+4.13%
+11.87%
Excess
+2.24%
+4.38%
+9.34%
Beat mkt rate
51.7%
52.5%
57.6%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.18%, beat the market by 9.34 pts; win rate 62.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 447-2.2% -4.9% 43.6% -18.2%
20-40 686+63.4% +63.1% 91% +36.8%
40-60 You are here503+20.9% +13.8% 63.4% +4.9%
60-80 677+25.5% -5.1% 49% +8.5%
80-100 146+85.2% -0.5% 50% +62.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 36.52, at the 46.7th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+17.1%
Win rate 50.6% Excess +13.2%
267d
Now
+31.8%
Win rate 71.9% Excess +24.2%
549d
+15.2%
Win rate 54.6% Excess -3.8%
489d
60-day momentum down
+5.2%
Win rate 47.3% Excess -1.8%
520d
+4.9%
Win rate 48.7% Excess -2.2%
538d
+80.3%
Win rate 63.3% Excess +57.6%
215d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 549 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 31.8%, win rate 71.9%, beat the market by 24.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.62%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +13.18 pts on average.

What does 宏捷科 do? Company profile

半導體業；化合物半導體、六吋砷化鎵（GaAs）晶圓代工 上櫃（櫃買中心，TPEx）

Overview

宏捷科技股份有限公司，英文簡稱 AWSC，為營運公司普通股。公司成立於1998/12/30，2003/03/31登錄興櫃，2009/06/01上櫃，總部位於臺南市新市區南部科學園區大利一路6號。公司網站揭露其為純六吋砷化鎵晶圓代工廠，製程涵蓋 HBT、ED pHEMT、ED BiHEMT、VCSEL，並將六吋 GaN 列入技術路線。依公開市場資料，實收資本額約新台幣19.65億元，已發行普通股196,516,123股；簽證會計師事務所為安侯建業。董事長方面，2026/03/05重大訊息公告董事長由祁幼銘職務調整，徐秀蘭自2026/03/06接任；總經理為黃國鈞。員工規模公開來源約900人，但非來自年報逐頁核對，列為近似值。主要股東為中美矽晶製品（5483），2020年參與宏捷科私募45,000千股、每股77.7元，成為最大股東；市場資料顯示中美矽晶持股約55,923張、約28.46%，另祁幼銘約4,015張。

Business

宏捷科主要從事砷化鎵晶圓研究、開發、生產、測試與銷售，商業模式為專業晶圓代工，服務 RFIC 設計公司與 IDM 客戶，提供製程平台、PDK、晶圓製造與測試支援。核心產品與技術包括 InGaP/GaAs HBT（用於手機4G/5G Sub-6GHz PA、WiFi 5/6/6E/7 PA）、GaAs pHEMT（射頻開關 SW、低雜訊放大器 LNA、衛星/GPS/WiFi應用）、ED BiHEMT（PA+SW+LNA整合，智慧手機與WiFi）、IPD、Cu Pillar Bump、VCSEL（3D sensing、ToF、AR/VR、自駕、光通訊）及開發中的GaN。第三方資料揭露2025年Q1產品組合約為手機64%、WiFi 30%、VCSEL 4%、其他2%；2024年高速傳輸產品約占營收5%，2025年預期提升至高個位數，惟此比重屬媒體/產業資料，非逐頁年報核對。公司網站月營收顯示2025全年營收約新台幣41.165億元、年減7.61%；2026年1至4月營收年增約55.86%，新聞資料顯示2026年前5月營收約21.13億元、年增51.49%。主要終端應用為智慧手機PA、WiFi PA、RF switch/LNA、PAMiD、高速光通訊VCSEL、LiDAR、3D感測、無人機WiFi、低軌衛星/高空平台太陽能等。主要客戶公開資訊多屬產業報導，包括 Skyworks、Qorvo、Qualcomm、Vanchip、Lansus、紫光展銳、立積等，實際客戶與營收占比需以公司未揭露資訊為準。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：上半年受2024高基期與手機/WiFi庫存循環影響，全年營收約41.17億元、年減7.61%，但下半年單月營收自9月起轉年增，Q4營收改善；手機PA、WiFi、VCSEL/高速傳輸成為復甦主軸。2026年：截至5月營收年增約51.49%，公司與媒體資料均指向5G PAMiD、高階手機PA、WiFi 7升級、無人機WiFi、LiDAR、VCSEL Datacom、HAPS太陽能等新業務開始貢獻，Q1毛利率與EPS創高的報導顯示產品組合與稼動率改善。2027至2028年：若WiFi 7滲透率、陸系/韓系手機客戶導入、AI資料中心短距VCSEL、LiDAR與非射頻產品占比提升順利，宏捷科有機會由手機PA循環股轉為較多元的化合物半導體代工平台；但此為基於產業趨勢與現有產品線的推估，非公司正式財測。主要風險包括智慧手機需求循環、記憶體漲價壓抑手機出貨、單一或少數大客戶波動、美系IDM與陸系供應鏈策略變化、WiFi 7與VCSEL放量不如預期、GaAs/GaN技術與良率競爭、上游砷化鎵/磷化銦等材料出口管制與交期、匯率、產能擴充折舊壓力、同業價格競爭及地緣政治。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 全新光電 2455 台股上市櫃公司；砷化鎵/磷化銦磊晶片廠，屬台灣三五族化合物半導體上游。未確認為宏捷科直接供應商，列為產業鏈上游關係企業。
  • 中美矽晶製品 5483 台股上市櫃公司；宏捷科最大股東與策略投資人，2020年參與私募，雙方以化合物半導體/GaN材料與產能策略合作為主。
  • 環球晶圓 6488 台股上市櫃公司；中美晶集團旗下晶圓材料公司，具寬能隙/化合物半導體材料研發綜效；未確認為宏捷科直接供應商。
  • IET-KY 4971 台股上櫃公司；三五族半導體材料、磊晶與基板相關業者，屬化合物半導體上游/相鄰供應鏈；未確認為宏捷科直接供應商。
  • AXT 美國上市公司；GaAs/InP基板供應商，屬全球化合物半導體上游，未確認為宏捷科直接供應商。
Downstream
  • Skyworks Solutions 美國上市射頻晶片IDM/模組廠；多家產業報導指為宏捷科主要代工客戶之一，終端涵蓋手機與無線通訊。
  • Qorvo 美國上市射頻晶片IDM/模組廠；產業報導列為全球PA/RF競爭與客戶生態之一，與宏捷科客戶結構相關但直接代工關係需公司確認。
  • Qualcomm 美國上市IC設計公司；產業報導提及宏捷科拓展至高通及WiFi相關客戶，直接營收占比未公開。
  • 立積電子 4968 台股上市櫃公司；射頻IC設計公司，屬宏捷科晶圓代工下游客戶/潛在客戶生態，公開資料提及其為宏捷科客戶之一。
  • 唯捷創芯（Vanchip） 中國大陸上市/掛牌公司；陸系PA/RF設計公司，產業報導列為宏捷科拓展的陸系設計客戶之一，非台股掛牌。
  • 紫光展銳 中國大陸未上市/非台股掛牌IC設計公司；產業報導列為宏捷科客戶之一，終端為手機與通訊晶片。
  • Broadcom 美國上市公司；全球RF/WiFi/通訊晶片供應鏈重要公司，與GaAs PA/WiFi生態相關；是否為宏捷科直接客戶未由公司確認。
  • Apple、Samsung及陸系手機品牌 終端品牌客戶或間接終端應用；非宏捷科直接揭露客戶，主要透過RF模組/IC客戶進入手機供應鏈。

Competitors

  • 穩懋半導體 3105 台股上櫃公司；全球主要砷化鎵晶圓代工廠，為宏捷科最直接的台灣同業競爭者。
  • 環宇-KY 4991 台股上市櫃公司；化合物半導體晶圓代工與光電元件業者，在GaAs/RF與光電代工領域與宏捷科部分重疊。
  • 三安光電／三安集成 中國大陸上市集團及旗下化合物半導體代工平台；非台股掛牌，為中國GaAs/GaN/化合物半導體競爭者。
  • Global Communication Semiconductors（GCS） 美國/開曼背景、台灣掛牌代號4991為環宇-KY；若以營運實體視角為海外化合物半導體代工競爭者。
  • IQE 英國上市化合物半導體磊晶材料公司；較偏上游磊晶，不是純晶圓代工同業，但在VCSEL/化合物半導體供應鏈中具競爭與替代關係。
  • 全新光電 2455 台股上市櫃公司；以砷化鎵/InP磊晶上游為主，不是宏捷科主要晶圓代工競爭者，但同屬PA/光通訊三五族投資與產業比較標的。
Sources（21）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.