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8112

至上 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 至上 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 63Quality 68Growth 97Momentum 73Chips 57

Is 至上 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 38th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 12th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 51th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 253.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.35
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 19,764 lots
  • sellers have 4,278 lots left, ~525 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 19,764 lots since the start (sold 10%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 3,888 lots, has sold 83%, 679 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.72pp, mid holders -4, retail +1.97pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -21,126 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北摩根大通華南永昌玉山證券富邦-陽明
Distributing
元大證券凱基-台南元大-佳里統一中國信託聯邦商銀
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利永豐金-匯立富邦-彰化凱基
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +19,764
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +13,459
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +13,177
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 華南永昌 +2,209
    sold 0%
  • 玉山證券 +1,121
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-陽明 +857
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 679 left
    sold 83%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台南 273 left
    sold 86%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 元大-佳里 913 left
    sold 39%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 統一 571 left
    sold 52%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 334 left
    sold 66%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 聯邦商銀 643 left
    sold 35%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -14,371
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-匯立 -4,696
    unclassified
  • 富邦-彰化 -4,600
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -4,326
    unclassified
Still selling 4,278 lots ~525 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +12,257 absorbed / -4,549 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -20,010 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-07)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 38, Median +1.19%, Excess +1.84%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；60-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 38, Median +1.19%, Excess +3.7%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；120-day: Win 68.6%, Sample 35, Median +14.32%, Excess +10.31%, Beat mkt rate 68.6%

120 days after: historical avg +17.4%

20-day +3.65%
60-day +9.13%
120-day +17.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
52.6%
68.6%
Sample
38
38
35
Median
+1.19%
+1.19%
+14.32%
Excess
+1.84%
+3.7%
+10.31%
Beat mkt rate
47.4%
42.1%
68.6%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.4%, beat the market by 10.31 pts; win rate 68.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 253.17%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

116 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.6%, Sample 99, Median +1.4%, Excess -0.01%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 97, Median +3.07%, Excess +1.04%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；120-day: Win 53.2%, Sample 94, Median +3.28%, Excess -0.62%, Beat mkt rate 44.7%

120 days after: historical avg +5.51%

20-day +1.79%
60-day +5.01%
120-day +5.51%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.6%
58.8%
53.2%
Sample
99
97
94
Median
+1.4%
+3.07%
+3.28%
Excess
-0.01%
+1.04%
-0.62%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
52.6%
44.7%

Over 94 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.51%, lagged the market by 0.62 pts; win rate 53.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1251+26.6% +18.2% 81.5% +14.7%
20-40 493+41.6% +37.6% 92.1% +18.9%
40-60 You are here430+27.1% +19.5% 68.1% +18.9%
60-80 382+26.2% +22.7% 77% -0.9%
80-100 464+4.9% +1.6% 50.6% -16.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.66, at the 51.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+12%
Win rate 75.4% Excess +6%
1016d
Now
+13.2%
Win rate 69.9% Excess +7.1%
445d
+15.4%
Win rate 66.9% Excess +0.1%
544d
60-day momentum down
+16.8%
Win rate 86.2% Excess +8.7%
545d
+0.3%
Win rate 41.4% Excess -1.7%
309d
+17.5%
Win rate 50.5% Excess +2%
281d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 445 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.2%, win rate 69.9%, beat the market by 7.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

77 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.05%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +0.99 pts on average.

What does 至上 do? Company profile

電子通路業 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

8112 對應證券為至上電子股份有限公司，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為電子通路業，主要經營電子零組件經銷業務。公司前身至上電子企業有限公司成立於 1987 年 3 月 5 日，總部位於台北市內湖區港墘路 189 號 7 樓；2004 年 2 月股票掛牌上櫃，2007 年 12 月 31 日轉上市。董事長兼總經理為葛均；發言人資料依公開股市資料為楊閎軒或張家瑋，公開來源間版本不同，須以公開資訊觀測站最新公告為準。公開股市資料顯示股本約新台幣 55.53 億元，已發行普通股約 5.25 億股，並有甲種特別股；徵才平台與企業簡介資料顯示集團海內外員工約 250 人。主要經營團隊持股方面，2025 年股東常會改選董事公告揭露葛均持有普通股 11,320,508 股及甲種特別股 50,000 股、邢懷成持有普通股 6,826,477 股及甲種特別股 50,000 股、謝錦宗持有普通股 2,805,809 股、張家瑋持有普通股 400,131 股；未找到可確認單一外部大股東持股超過 10% 的公開資料。

Business

至上為半導體與電子零組件代理經銷商，商業模式以取得原廠代理線、向台灣、中國、香港、美國等地客戶銷售零組件、提供技術支援與供應鏈服務為主；營收與記憶體報價、下游拉貨、庫存週期及原廠供貨策略高度連動。公司為 Samsung Electronics 在台灣及大中華區的重要代理商，官方網站列示產品線包含 Samsung Electronics 的 Memory、System LSI，以及 Samsung SEMCO、Samsung SDI、bp/Castrol、Chrontel、Cirrus Logic、Cmedia、HannStar、HCCH、Montage、Macroblock 等品牌或產品。MoneyDJ 彙整資料指出，代理與銷售品牌包括三星電子、三星電機、三星 SDI、聯發科、Skyworks、Bosch、聯詠、敦泰、奕力、Cirrus Logic、驊訊、聚睿、聚積、Chrontel、瀚宇彩晶、群創、奇景、卓榮、HKC、GalaxyCore、Schneider 等。主要產品涵蓋 DRAM、NAND Flash、SSD、記憶體模組、System LSI、TFT-LCD、驅動 IC、LED、電源與工控相關零組件。MoneyDJ 彙整 2024 年銷售地區比重為台灣 17%、大陸及香港 76%、美國 7%。市場報導與法說摘要指出，2026 年第 1 季記憶體相關業務比重約 88%，其中 DRAM 約 63%、Flash 約 25%，伺服器應用已成為記憶體業務最大應用之一；另有市場資料列示營業項目以 Memory 約 89.36%、Other 約 7.95%、LSI 約 1.96%、TFT 約 0.73% 為主，惟該等細項非公司年報逐字摘錄，應視為外部整理。2025 年合併營收約新台幣 2,265.28 億元、年減 4.4%，但 2025 年第 4 季營收約 703.33 億元創單季新高，全年每股純益約 5.02 元；2026 年前 5 月累計營收約新台幣 1,991.47 億元、年增約 136.89%，反映記憶體價格上漲與伺服器、手機等客戶拉貨。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年至上營運呈現先弱後強：全年營收仍較 2024 年下滑，但第 4 季受記憶體報價回升、下游客戶補庫存與伺服器需求帶動，單季營收創高且獲利明顯改善。2026 年主要成長動能來自 AI 伺服器、一般伺服器、企業級 SSD、DRAM 與 NAND Flash 供給吃緊，以及 Samsung 等記憶體原廠將產能轉向 HBM、伺服器 DRAM、先進 NAND 與企業級產品後，傳統 DRAM/NAND 可供應量受擠壓；TrendForce 於 2026 年 3 月指出 2Q26 conventional DRAM 合約價預估季增 58% 至 63%、NAND Flash 合約價預估季增 70% 至 75%，供應商持續把產能配置到伺服器相關應用與企業級 SSD。2027 至 2028 年若 AI 資料中心、CSP、伺服器 OEM 與企業儲存需求延續，至上可受惠於記憶體 ASP 上升、代理佣金或毛利額放大、存貨成本低於市價時的庫存利益，以及 Samsung 在 HBM、DDR5、LPDDR、NAND、企業級 SSD 等產品的供應鏈地位；但若價格上漲過快導致 PC、手機、消費性 SSD 需求破壞，或原廠長約重新議價、客戶去庫存、記憶體新產能開出、匯率波動、授信與應收帳款風險升高，則可能造成營收與獲利大幅波動。公司本身屬通路商，資本支出與製造擴產並非核心，展望重點在代理線取得、原廠供貨配額、客戶信用控管、庫存周轉、AI 伺服器與企業儲存應用占比提升，以及降低對單一原廠與單一產品週期的依賴。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Samsung Electronics 韓國上市公司；至上主要代理原廠之一，供應 Memory、DRAM、NAND Flash、SSD、System LSI 等產品，為至上營收與景氣循環最關鍵的上游。
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics（三星電機） 韓國上市公司；至上代理或銷售品牌之一，供應電子零組件。
  • Samsung SDI 韓國上市公司；至上代理或銷售品牌之一，產品與電池、電子材料及相關零組件有關。
  • 聯發科技 2454 台股上市 IC 設計公司；MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • Skyworks Solutions 美國上市公司；射頻與類比半導體供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • Bosch 德國未上市集團；感測器、汽車與工控零組件供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • 聯詠科技 3034 台股上市 IC 設計公司；顯示驅動 IC 供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • 敦泰電子 3545 台股上市 IC 設計公司；觸控與顯示驅動相關 IC 供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • 奕力科技 3598 台股上市 IC 設計公司；顯示驅動 IC 供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • Cirrus Logic 美國上市公司；音訊與混合訊號 IC 供應商，至上官方網站與 MoneyDJ 均列示為相關品牌。
  • 驊訊電子 6237 台股上櫃 IC 設計公司；音訊晶片供應商，至上官方網站列示 Cmedia，MoneyDJ 列為代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • 聚積科技 3527 台股上市 IC 設計公司；LED 驅動 IC 供應商，至上官方網站列示 Macroblock，MoneyDJ 列為代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • 瀚宇彩晶 6116 台股上市面板公司；MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一，亦可能同時為面板相關產品客戶。
  • 群創光電 3481 台股上市面板公司；MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一，亦可能同時為面板相關產品客戶。
  • 奇景光電 美國 NASDAQ 上市公司；顯示 IC 供應商，MoneyDJ 列為至上代理及銷售品牌之一。
  • Montage Technology 中國科創板上市公司；記憶體介面與伺服器相關晶片供應商，至上官方網站列示 Montage。
  • Schneider Electric 法國上市公司；能源管理與工控產品供應商，MoneyDJ 與徵才資料列為至上相關產品線。
Downstream
  • 威剛科技 3260 台股上櫃記憶體模組與儲存產品公司；MoneyDJ 指出為至上代理 DRAM、NAND Flash 的主要客戶之一。
  • 創見資訊 2451 台股上市記憶體模組與儲存產品公司；MoneyDJ 指出為至上代理 DRAM、NAND Flash 的主要客戶之一。
  • 瑞儀光電 6176 台股上市背光模組公司；MoneyDJ 指出為至上 LED 產品主要客戶之一。
  • 瀚宇彩晶 6116 台股上市面板公司；MoneyDJ 指出為至上 TFT-LCD、Driver IC 等產品客戶之一。
  • 群創光電 3481 台股上市面板公司；MoneyDJ 指出為至上 TFT-LCD 客戶之一，奇美電已併入群創。
  • 中國、香港、美國與台灣之伺服器、手機、PC、面板、工控及消費電子客戶 多數終端客戶未逐一公開；2024 年銷售地區以大陸及香港為主，2026 年成長動能與 AI 伺服器、企業級儲存、手機與客戶補庫存有關。

Competitors

  • 大聯大控股 3702 台股上市，台灣最大電子零組件通路商之一，與至上同屬半導體與電子零組件代理通路競爭者。
  • 文曄科技 3036 台股上市，國際級半導體通路商，代理線與客戶群與至上部分重疊。
  • 擎亞國際科技 8096 台股上櫃 IC 通路商，MoneyDJ 列為至上主要競爭對手之一。
  • 增你強股份有限公司 3028 台股上市電子零組件通路商，與至上同屬電子通路業。
  • 全科科技 3209 台股上櫃電子零組件通路商，與至上同屬半導體與零組件代理通路競爭者。
  • Avnet Inc. 美國上市全球電子零組件通路商，MoneyDJ 列為至上主要競爭對手之一。
  • Arrow Electronics 美國上市全球電子零組件通路商，MoneyDJ 列為至上主要競爭對手之一。
  • 世平集團 大聯大旗下通路品牌，非單獨台股掛牌；Samsung 代理商名單中可見其相關公司，與至上在部分代理與客戶服務上競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.