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8131

福懋科 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 福懋科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 36Quality 74Growth 84Momentum 79Chips 89

Is 福懋科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 77th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 68th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 49.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 3,302 lots
  • sellers have 761 lots left, ~690 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 3,302 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 2,245 lots, has sold 61%, 869 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.81pp, mid holders -2, retail -0.73pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -457 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北宏遠-高雄花旗環球
Distributing
美林美商高盛凱基-士林台新元大證券台新證券
Desks
own scale
兆豐-大同群益金鼎-敦南華南永昌康和
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +3,302
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +2,816
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +2,178
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +1,598
    sold 24%· still adding
  • 宏遠-高雄 +739
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +661
    sold 14%

Distributing

  • 美林 869 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 909 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 凱基-士林 136 left
    sold 90%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 台新 467 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 401 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 313 left
    sold 34%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-大同 -1,869
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-敦南 -693
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -579
    unclassified
  • 康和 -577
    unclassified
Still selling 761 lots ~690 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,379 absorbed / -662 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -9 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 49.61%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

52 historical occurrences (since 2007-11-29)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.9%, Sample 41, Median -1.15%, Excess +0.12%, Beat mkt rate 36.6%；60-day: Win 23.1%, Sample 39, Median -7.13%, Excess -3.75%, Beat mkt rate 28.2%；120-day: Win 25%, Sample 36, Median -10.34%, Excess -9.9%, Beat mkt rate 30.6%

120 days after: historical avg -8.41%

20-day +0.16%
60-day -3.41%
120-day -8.41%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.9%
23.1%
25%
Sample
41
39
36
Median
-1.15%
-7.13%
-10.34%
Excess
+0.12%
-3.75%
-9.9%
Beat mkt rate
36.6%
28.2%
30.6%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 8.41%, lagged the market by 9.9 pts; win rate 25%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 426+18.5% +16.5% 96.9% +0.9%
20-40 655+19.7% +16.1% 78.8% +4.3%
40-60 860+13.6% +11% 87.7% +3.3%
60-80 487+40.3% +8.6% 69.4% +8.8%
80-100 You are here5390% -5.1% 48.2% -13.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 37.98, at the 88.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.3%
Win rate 82.6% Excess +0.7%
540d
+5.5%
Win rate 69.8% Excess +2.5%
874d
Now
+23.3%
Win rate 45.1% Excess +8.3%
474d
60-day momentum down
+11.1%
Win rate 89.7% Excess +6.2%
312d
+11.1%
Win rate 84.1% Excess -2.6%
397d
+7.9%
Win rate 41.2% Excess -3.3%
490d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 474 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 23.3%, win rate 45.1%, beat the market by 8.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.8%, win rate 60.7%, beating the market by +6.64 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.65%, win rate 57.4%, beating the market by +1.08 pts on average.

What does 福懋科 do? Company profile

半導體業；記憶體封裝、測試與模組代工 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

8131 對應證券為福懋科，屬台塑集團旗下之上市普通股營運公司。公司成立於1990年9月11日，原由福懋興業因產業轉型需求結合中研院研究人員於新竹科學園區設立，1996年於雲林縣斗六市投資設立IC封裝測試廠並遷至現址。總部／主要廠址為雲林縣斗六市榴中里河南街329號。掛牌日期為2007年11月29日，市場別為上市，產業類別為半導體。依2026/06/17可得資料，董事長為蘇林慶，總經理暨發言人為張憲正，代理發言人為陳文才；實收股本為新台幣4,422,222,230元，已發行普通股442,222,223股，董監持股比例約62.71%。員工規模資料來源不一：BigGo揭露約2,350人，104人力銀行揭露約2,480人，故以約2,350至2,480人區間看待。主要股東方面，公開永續報告書揭露南亞科技與福懋興業為主要股東，2022年揭露持股分別約31.99%與30.68%；2026年可得即時資料顯示董監持股合計約62.71%，與台塑集團控制性持股結構相符，但逐一股東最新明細未在本次可查來源中完整確認。2025年度財報公告：營業收入約新台幣99.212億元、營業毛利約10.752億元、營業利益約7.121億元、歸屬母公司業主淨利約6.026億元、EPS 1.36元；2026年第1季營收約29.446億元、毛利率19.55%、營益率16.12%、EPS 0.96元。

Business

福懋科定位為國際級專業構裝、測試與模組一元化服務公司，主要接受委託從事各型積體電路之封裝、測試與模組加工及研發，核心集中於DRAM／記憶體後段製程。服務內容包括DRAM晶圓測試、IC封裝、IC測試、記憶體模組加工，以及Flash、QFN、Flip Chip、Multi Chip、POP、eMMC、eMCP、SiP、LED晶粒代工與LED封裝等。商業模式以代工服務為主，承接半導體廠、IC設計公司與記憶體模組客戶之外包封測與模組需求，收入受記憶體顆粒出貨量、封測代工價格、產能利用率、客戶產品世代轉換與新台幣匯率影響。依StockFeel整理，福懋科營收結構以IC封裝測試約84%、模組約16%為主；此比例可能來自近年公開資料整理，非公司在2026/06/17即時逐項公告數字。客戶與終端應用方面，萬寶週刊與相關市場報導指出主要客戶包含南亞科、威剛與晶豪科，其中南亞科為台塑集團核心客戶並貢獻約五成營收；公司產品終端應用包含伺服器、工業控制、消費性電子、AI伺服器、高效運算、AI PC／手機及資料中心記憶體需求。2026年5月單月營收約10.526億元，年增49.61%；2026年1至5月累計營收約49.956億元，年增37.09%，顯示記憶體景氣回升與代工單價改善帶動營運動能。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：上半年受記憶體市況與匯率波動影響，全年EPS降至1.36元，但自下半年起DRAM／DDR4／DDR5供需轉強、庫存回補與封測稼動率提升，單季營運明顯改善；2025年第4季營收29.542億元，季增12.1%、年增37.1%，為公司揭露之高峰水準之一。2026年：公司法說會資料顯示，AI與HPC需求改變記憶體供需結構，HBM排擠國際DRAM大廠傳統DRAM產能，傳統型DRAM供給偏緊，有利台廠DDR4產出與封測需求；公司預期封裝測試及模組業務均受惠。公司規劃約59.46億元資本支出，投入既有產能擴充與五廠先進封裝建置；新五廠機電與無塵室工程預計2026年第2季完成，先進封裝設備裝機驗證後預計2026年第4季小量量產。技術路線上，3D TSV露銅製程與覆晶封裝2層晶片堆疊技術預計2026年第3季小量試產；覆晶封裝4層晶片堆疊預計2026年第4季完成技術開發，應用於高容量、高速度DDR5 R-DIMM伺服器模組；Bump與RDL製程預計2026年第4季完成客戶初期驗證，2027年第1季可望提供Bump、RDL與覆晶封裝全流程代工服務。2027至2028年：若客戶驗證與良率爬坡順利，成長主軸將由傳統記憶體封測延伸至DDR5伺服器模組、先進封裝、Bump／RDL與3D TSV相關製程，毛利結構有機會因高階產品比重提升而改善；同時受惠AI伺服器、資料中心與工控記憶體容量提升。主要風險包括：記憶體報價循環反轉、南亞科等大客戶集中度高、五廠資本支出折舊壓力、先進封裝技術驗證與良率不確定、國際DRAM大廠產能配置變化、封裝基板／金線／化學材料成本、電力與水資源需求、新台幣升值造成匯損，以及封測同業擴產後的價格競爭。2027至2028展望屬基於2026法說規劃與產業趨勢之推估，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台塑集團關係企業；2025年底市場報導指出福懋科向南亞取得／委託五廠一期先進封裝相關廠務設施與機電、管線、配電等工程資源，屬先進封裝產能建置上游工程與廠務支援。
  • 半導體封裝材料與設備供應商 包含封裝基板、導線架、金線、封裝膠、化學品、晶圓切割／研磨、測試機與探針卡等供應鏈；本次未查得福懋科逐一指名供應商清單，故不填台股代號。
  • 海外半導體設備商 先進封裝、晶圓凸塊、RDL、測試與切割製程通常需仰賴日本、美國或歐洲設備供應商；本次未確認福懋科特定採購對象，列為產業鏈推定關係。
Downstream
  • 南亞科技股份有限公司 2408 主要客戶、主要股東與台塑集團核心記憶體廠；市場報導指出南亞科約貢獻福懋科營收五成，福懋科承接其DRAM封裝、測試與模組相關後段代工。
  • 威剛科技股份有限公司 3260 記憶體模組與儲存產品公司；市場報導列為福懋科主要客戶之一，關係屬記憶體封測／模組加工需求端。
  • 晶豪科技股份有限公司 3006 IC設計公司；市場報導列為福懋科主要客戶之一，關係屬記憶體IC封裝測試需求端。
  • 國內外半導體廠與IC設計公司 公司永續報告書揭露封裝、測試與模組代工客戶包含國內外半導體廠與IC設計等科技公司；未逐名揭露者以未上市或海外客戶處理。
  • 伺服器、工業控制、資料中心與消費性電子終端品牌／系統廠 終端需求來自DDR4、DDR5、伺服器R-DIMM、AI／HPC、工控與消費性記憶體模組；多為間接下游客戶或終端應用，非福懋科直接公告客戶。

Competitors

Sources（21）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.