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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 9931 欣高. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=9931
9931
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 欣高 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 66th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.5%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 25th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.3% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 華南永昌 has accumulated 420 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 台新-三民 peaked at 284 lots, has sold 46%, 154 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.04pp, mid holders -4, retail +0.81pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -77 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 華南永昌 +420
- 國泰-敦南 +125
- 統一-平鎮 +113
- 富邦-陽明 +95
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +94
- 富邦-仁愛 +82
Distributing
- 台新-三民 154 left
- 凱基-永和 52 left
- 凱基-台北 84 left
- 元大-草屯 6 left
- 華南永昌-鳳山 7 left
- 元大-中壢 9 left
Desks
- 元大-東泰 -921
- 元富-城東 -341
- 凱基-彰化 -254
- 元大-新莊 -223
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 358 | +11.5% | +8.9% | 98% | -21.6% |
| 20-40 | 312 | +10.3% | +10.4% | 96.8% | -5.4% |
| 40-60 | 340 | +10.3% | +5.5% | 99.7% | -2.5% |
| 60-80 | 873 | +11.9% | +5.6% | 91.2% | -2.7% |
| 80-100 | 1156 | -1.9% | -1.2% | 44.1% | -15.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 14.73, at the 18.7th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 251 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.4%, win rate 88%, lagged the market by 8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.35%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.15 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
45 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.3%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +0.12 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.28%, win rate 43.8%, beating the market by -4.81 pts on average.
What does 欣高 do? Company profile
Overview
9931 對應證券為欣高，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1983/12/15，總部位於高雄市苓雅區民權一路12號，統一編號 79882718；公開發行日為 1990/10/04，上櫃日為 1998/11/13，上市日為 2000/03/21。實收資本額約新台幣 1,203,693,030 元，已發行普通股 120,369,303 股。依 2026/06/05 重大訊息，董事長由陳建東改為莊雯苑，總經理由王繼開改為林照川，均於 2026/06/05 生效；發言人為黃進雄。2024 年永續報告書揭露員工總人數 116 人，男性 84 人、女性 32 人。主要股東依 2024 年股東會前十大股東資料及 2026 年董事改選公告綜合觀察，包括新祥投資、國軍退除役官兵輔導委員會、清園投資、同德投資、欣雄天然氣、和馨建設、員工福利基金及部分自然人股東；其中 2026 年董事改選公告列示國軍退除役官兵輔導委員會持股 25,595,774 股、同德投資持股 4,294,581 股。
Business
欣高為區域型公用天然氣事業，核心業務是自上游氣源採購天然氣，經計量站、整壓站與管線系統輸送至高雄市楠梓、左營、鼓山、三民、鹽埕、前金、新興、苓雅、前鎮等九個行政區的家庭、商業與部分工業用戶。主要產品與服務包括以導管輸送天然氣、氣體導管裝置、天然氣器具及器材製造或代銷、管線裝置與維修。營收結構方面，MoneyDJ 財經百科列示 2024 年售氣收入約 78%、裝置收入約 22%；售氣收入來自天然氣度數費與基本費，裝置收入則與新用戶接管、新建案、既有管線維修與更新工程相關。公司產品頁說明近年用戶推廣以既設管線到達區域為主，優先推廣高用氣量工商業用戶，並配合新興社區及國宅興建延伸管線，以提高用戶密度與管線投資效益。重要原料為天然氣，主要供應商為台灣中油，公司向中油採購天然氣後供家庭、商業及工業使用。商業模式具公用事業特性：在核定供氣區域內提供管線天然氣服務，收入基礎較穩定，但價格、基本收費與營業章程受天然氣事業法及主管機關規範。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以穩健、低成長的區域公用事業為主。成長動能包括：一、高雄九大行政區既設管線戶數滲透率提升，尤其既有管線到達區域、商業用戶與高用氣量工商業用戶推廣；二、配合新興社區、國宅、新建案與都市更新延伸管線，帶動裝置收入與未來售氣量；三、天然氣相對燃油與液化石油氣具低污染優勢，若空污法規與城市能源政策持續鼓勵清潔燃料，對管線天然氣需求有支撐；四、公司持續做管線安全、整壓設備與供氣系統維護，有助降低事故風險並提高供氣可靠度；五、轉投資事業如和欣國際、捷揚建設等若仍有不動產開發或租賃收益，可能提供本業外的獲利補充。主要風險與挑戰包括：一、供氣區域受特許與地理範圍限制，長期成長取決於人口、建案量與用戶滲透率，較難高速擴張；二、天然氣成本與價格受中油採購成本、政府氣價政策及國際 LNG 價格影響，雖有成本連動機制，但調整時點與政策吸收可能影響毛利；三、管線老化、漏氣、公安事故與地震豪雨等災害是公用天然氣業的核心營運風險；四、能源轉型、電氣化廚具、碳費與甲烷逸散管理可能提高合規與設備投資成本；五、新建案放緩或房市轉弱會壓抑裝置收入。整體推估 2025 至 2028 年欣高本業較可能維持穩定現金流與股利導向，成長率取決於用戶數、售氣量、氣價調整及裝置工程量，而非大規模產能擴張。
Supply Chain
- 台灣中油股份有限公司 主要天然氣氣源供應商；非台股上市櫃公司。欣高向中油採購天然氣，經計量站與管線輸送至用戶端。
- 公用天然氣管線、瓦斯錶、整壓設備與工程承裝供應商 提供管線工程、瓦斯表、整壓與安全設備等；公開資料未能確認主要個別供應商名稱，故以產業角色列示。
- 高雄市九大供氣行政區家庭用戶 終端民生用戶，涵蓋楠梓、左營、鼓山、三民、鹽埕、前金、新興、苓雅、前鎮等區域；非公司法人。
- 高雄市九大供氣行政區商業用戶 餐飲、旅宿、店鋪、學校機關等商業與服務業用戶，為售氣收入與高用氣量推廣對象；多數非台股上市櫃公司或未揭露個別名單。
- 中油指定或供氣區域內工業用戶 部分工商業與工業用氣客戶；公開資料未揭露主要客戶名稱，故 stock_id 設為 null。
- 新建案、社區與國宅開發案 帶動天然氣管線裝置、接管與未來售氣戶數；公開資料未揭露主要案場與建商名單。
Competitors
- 欣雄天然氣股份有限公司 8908 上櫃天然瓦斯供應業者，營業區域涵蓋高雄市原縣區及多個工業區；與欣高同屬可比同業，區域多互補而非同一供氣區直接競爭。
- 欣泰石油氣股份有限公司 8917 上櫃天然瓦斯供應業者，主要服務新北部分行政區及桃園龜山迴龍里；同業比較對象。
- 大台北區瓦斯股份有限公司 9908 上市天然瓦斯供應業者，主要服務台北市部分區域；同業比較對象。
- 欣天然氣股份有限公司 9918 上市天然瓦斯供應業者，主要服務宜蘭地區；同業比較對象。
- 新海瓦斯股份有限公司 9926 上市天然瓦斯供應業者，主要服務新北部分區域；同業比較對象。
- 台灣中油股份有限公司 非台股上市櫃公司；為天然氣進口、生產與供應端重要業者，也可在部分區域直接供氣，但對欣高主要是上游供應商而非一般同業競爭者。
Sources（18）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.