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1305

華夏 Plastics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華夏 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 45Quality 15Growth 65Momentum 34Chips 77

Is 華夏 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 17th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 83th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.55
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 兆豐-忠孝 holds 3,009 lots
  • sellers have 4,532 lots left, ~2710 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-忠孝 has accumulated 3,009 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 2,628 lots, has sold 30%, 1,840 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.62pp, mid holders +5, retail +2.65pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -6,537 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-忠孝富邦-竹科元大-屏南台新證券國泰-敦南群益金鼎-中港
Distributing
摩根大通元大證券新加坡商瑞銀臺銀元富-屏東新光
Desks
own scale
中國信託國泰-高雄國票-敦北法人統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-忠孝 +3,009
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 富邦-竹科 +2,439
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 元大-屏南 +1,687
    sold 11%
  • 台新證券 +1,290
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-敦南 +1,221
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-中港 +765
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 1,840 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 268 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 651 left
    sold 50%· ~100 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀 572 left
    sold 40%· ~136 sessions to clear
  • 元富-屏東 247 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 新光 303 left
    sold 65%· ~7 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 中國信託 -4,030
    unclassified
  • 國泰-高雄 -3,645
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -2,888
    unclassified
  • 統一 -2,729
    unclassified
Still selling 4,532 lots ~2710 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,306 absorbed / -1,820 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -6,496 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.69%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

45 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.2%, Sample 41, Median +0.26%, Excess -0.31%, Beat mkt rate 41.5%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 39, Median +5.76%, Excess +4.39%, Beat mkt rate 51.3%；120-day: Win 48.7%, Sample 39, Median -0.29%, Excess +1.8%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%

120 days after: historical avg +3.89%

20-day +1.42%
60-day +8.24%
120-day +3.89%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.2%
66.7%
48.7%
Sample
41
39
39
Median
+0.26%
+5.76%
-0.29%
Excess
-0.31%
+4.39%
+1.8%
Beat mkt rate
41.5%
51.3%
38.5%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.89%, beat the market by 1.8 pts; win rate 48.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 697+3.1% -11.2% 34.7% -8.4%
20-40 478+7.7% -8.4% 39.3% -2%
40-60 395+47.1% +53.4% 65.3% +28.7%
60-80 395+44.4% +39.9% 82% +24.1%
80-100 You are here226+7.4% +18.1% 63.3% -18.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 52.5, at the 92.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+12.1%
Win rate 64.3% Excess +6.4%
502d
+9.5%
Win rate 58.7% Excess +2.1%
448d
+9.4%
Win rate 38.2% Excess -4.8%
296d
60-day momentum down
+1.5%
Win rate 49.1% Excess -0.8%
511d
+18.7%
Win rate 84.1% Excess +6.1%
226d
Now
-0.3%
Win rate 42.1% Excess -9.9%
328d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 328 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.3%, win rate 42.1%, lagged the market by 9.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.3%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -2.63 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.71%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -3.44 pts on average.

What does 華夏 do? Company profile

塑膠工業 上市

Overview

1305 對應華夏，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，ISIN TW0001305001，上市日為 1973/03/05，產業別為塑膠工業。公司創立於 1964 年 2 月，第三方基本資料頁列成立日為 1964/04/29；總部位於台北市內湖區基湖路 37 號 12 樓，主要廠址為苗栗縣頭份市民族路 571 號。實收資本額約新台幣 58.1 億元，已發行普通股 581,050,494 股。董事長兼總執行長為吳亦圭，總經理為胡吉宏。華夏為台聚集團關係企業，主要股東依公司股東結構頁包括聯聚國際投資 145,079,236 股、持股 24.97%；亞洲聚合 46,886,185 股、持股 8.07%；富邦人壽 28,468,000 股、持股 4.90%；台達化學工業 11,516,174 股、持股 1.98%。公司 ESG 頁揭露 2024 年全體員工 829 人，範疇涵蓋台灣子公司、不含海外轉投資公司。華夏持有台灣氯乙烯工業 87.27%，該公司 VCM 年產能 48.5 萬噸；另 2009 年設立 100% 持股之華夏聚合，在林園建 PVC 粉廠，官網載明年產 22 萬噸 PVC 粉廠。官網基本資料列原料產品年產能：PVC 粉 230,000 噸、化學品 68,675 乾噸；PVC 二次加工產品年產能合計 92,960 噸。

Business

華夏屬石化中下游塑膠原料與製品公司，產銷範圍涵蓋第一階段聚氯乙烯 PVC、化學品，以及第二次加工的膠布、膠皮、管材、異押製品等。主要產品包括 PVC 粉、VCM、EDC、鹼氯化學品、PVC 膠布、膠皮、軟皮、管材、管件、門板、防蝕片與其他建材產品。商業模式為透過台氯 VCM、華夏聚合 PVC 粉與本公司頭份加工產線形成上中下游垂直整合，一部分 PVC 粉內銷或外銷，一部分自用於二次加工產品；化學品則受國內半導體與傳產需求影響。2025 年法說會揭露合併銷貨淨額為新台幣 92.21 億元，年減 17%；產品別銷售量為 VCM/PVC 282 千噸、PVC 製品 30 千噸、鹼氯 58 千噸、合計 370 千噸，依銷售量約分別占 76%、8%、16%，但此為量的結構，不等同營收占比。2026 年 Q1 合併銷貨淨額為新台幣 26.74 億元，年增 9%；銷售量 VCM/PVC 97 千噸、PVC 製品 7 千噸、鹼氯 14 千噸，合計 118 千噸。終端應用包括建築與營建管材、門板與防蝕材料、膠布膠皮下游加工、海外 PVC 市場、半導體與電子化學品需求、公共工程與能源建設相關材料需求。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年產業環境偏弱：公司法說會指出中國 PVC 新增產能 220 萬噸，總產能接近 3,000 萬噸，內需低迷、出口量 382 萬噸且年增 60%，低價競爭壓縮全球 PVC 利差；印度 BIS 與 ADD 政策延宕或撤消、美國高利率壓抑房地產及管材建材需求，均使 PVC、VCM 價格承壓。2026 年公司展望較 2025 年改善但仍保守：公司股東會營業報告書指出，中國反內捲與淘汰老舊產能、全球 PVC 新增產能有限、南亞/東南亞/非洲/南美等新興市場需求穩健，有助供需平衡改善；但貿易壁壘會重塑區域價差與貿易流向。化學品方面，2026 年國內半導體擴產與傳產復甦有助需求持穩，但中國低價入銷可能壓縮國內 IEM 獲利空間。加工品方面，膠布/膠皮受益北美市場關稅調降與中美貿易戰降溫，耐燃劑及特殊助劑成本壓力可望緩解，但環保減碳法規趨嚴，產品升級與環保材料成為關鍵；建材產品因央行選擇性信用管制、房市推案與開工遞延，展望仍保守，不過公共工程與能源建設可支撐交易量。2026 年 Q1/Q2 法說會進一步指出，中東戰事導致原油、石腦油、乙烯供應緊縮，一度推升 EDC/VCM/PVC 價格，但終端對高價抗拒造成需求遞延。2027-2028 展望屬推估：若中國產能整頓確實落地、全球新增 PVC 產能有限且新興市場基建需求延續，華夏利差與稼動率有機會逐步修復；若中國出口持續傾銷、美國房市與高利率壓抑建材需求、地緣政治造成原料大幅波動、碳費與環保法規提高成本，則獲利復甦可能延後。公司自身動能在製程汰舊換新、節能減碳、環保材質產品、ISO14021/PCR 認證產品與歐美品牌量產導入，但目前未查得 2027-2028 具體擴產數字或資本支出時程。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣氯乙烯工業股份有限公司 未上市；華夏持股約 87.27% 之關係企業，供應 VCM，年產能 48.5 萬噸，是華夏 PVC 垂直整合核心上游。
  • 華夏聚合股份有限公司 未上市；華夏 100% 持股子公司，位於林園，PVC 粉年產能 22 萬噸，屬集團內 PVC 粉供應與去化平台。
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 未上市國營事業；1970 年與華夏等共同發起台灣氯乙烯工業，屬台灣石化上游與乙烯/石化原料鏈重要參與者；是否為華夏現行直接供應商未能由已查資料確認。
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 台股上市；台灣主要石化上游與烯烴供應者，對乙烯、石化原料價格與供應具產業關聯；未確認為華夏直接供應商。
  • 國際乙烯、EDC、VCM 與石腦油供應商 公司法說會多次以乙烯、EDC、VCM、石腦油及原油價格說明成本端；供應受中國產能、美國遠洋貨源、亞洲裂解廠開工與中東地緣政治影響。
Downstream
  • PVC 管材、建材與營建通路客戶 未揭露特定客戶；使用華夏 PVC 管、管件、門板、防蝕片等建材產品，需求受民間營建、房市信用管制、公共工程與能源建設影響。
  • 塑膠加工與膠布膠皮客戶 未揭露特定客戶；採購 PVC 膠布、膠皮、軟皮與相關加工材料，終端受北美關稅、中美貿易、耐燃劑與特殊助劑成本、環保減碳要求影響。
  • 半導體與電子化學品需求端 未揭露特定客戶；公司 2026 展望提到半導體廠擴產帶動國內化學品需求，屬鹼氯/化學品下游需求來源。
  • 南亞、東南亞、非洲、南美等新興市場客戶 未揭露特定客戶；法說會與營業報告書指出新興市場 PVC 需求可望穩健成長，為 PVC 粉與相關產品出口去化區域。
  • 歐美品牌客戶 未揭露特定公司；公司營業報告書稱多項環保材質產品獲歐美品牌肯定並進入量產階段。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.