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1307

三芳 Plastics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三芳 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 79Quality 74Growth 50Momentum 49Chips 95

Is 三芳 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 72th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 18th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 49th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 16.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.65
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 1,751 lots
  • sellers have 562 lots left, ~25 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 1,751 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 1,004 lots, has sold 65%, 351 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.13pp, mid holders +4, retail -1.01pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,307 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛元大-莒光元大-台北凱基國泰證券
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀美林元大-新盛新光永豐金-竹科凱基-高美館
Desks
own scale
台中銀摩根大通大和國泰元大-發財
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,751
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +1,090
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 元大-莒光 +706
    sold 22%
  • 元大-台北 +623
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 凱基 +505
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +442
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 351 left
    sold 65%· paused recently
  • 美林 733 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-新盛 259 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 新光 253 left
    sold 45%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-竹科 108 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 凱基-高美館 94 left
    sold 55%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台中銀 -1,026
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -804
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 大和國泰 -418
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大-發財 -399
    unclassified
Still selling 562 lots ~25 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,468 absorbed / -696 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -804 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 historical occurrences (since 2009-05-06)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 52%, Sample 25, Median +0.38%, Excess +0.1%, Beat mkt rate 48%；60-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +2.61%, Excess +1%, Beat mkt rate 48%；120-day: Win 68%, Sample 25, Median +7.67%, Excess +4.46%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +12.16%

20-day +0.72%
60-day +5.8%
120-day +12.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52%
56%
68%
Sample
25
25
25
Median
+0.38%
+2.61%
+7.67%
Excess
+0.1%
+1%
+4.46%
Beat mkt rate
48%
48%
60%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.16%, beat the market by 4.46 pts; win rate 68%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 194+14.5% +4.9% 77.8% -20.3%
20-40 409+4.2% +0.3% 51.3% -6.7%
40-60 You are here388+12.8% +4.1% 52.3% -3.4%
60-80 507+25.7% +28.7% 86% +3.9%
80-100 1543+3.9% +1.9% 54.6% -10%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.18, at the 49.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+20.3%
Win rate 74.1% Excess +8.1%
278d
Now
+8.9%
Win rate 62.5% Excess -0.3%
514d
+2.4%
Win rate 60.4% Excess -4.9%
1012d
60-day momentum down
+5.5%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -14.5%
281d
+3.6%
Win rate 49.6% Excess -6.7%
236d
-0.4%
Win rate 51.7% Excess -3.8%
836d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 514 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.9%, win rate 62.5%, lagged the market by 0.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.2%, win rate 55.8%, beating the market by +0.17 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2%, win rate 54.4%, beating the market by -1.15 pts on average.

What does 三芳 do? Company profile

塑膠工業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1307 對應證券為「三芳」，ISIN 為 TW0001307007，上市普通股，產業分類為塑膠工業。公司成立於 1973-06-16，上市日期為 1985-11-23，登記地址為高雄市三民區通化街120號，公開資訊觀測站揭露英文通訊地址為高雄市仁武區鳳仁路402號；董事長林孟經，總經理林至逸，發言人李禮權。實收資本額新台幣3,978,181,260元，已發行普通股397,818,126股，每股面額10元。公開資訊觀測站資料出表日為2026-06-16。公司網站揭露主軸為合成皮革與薄膜材料，公開徵才資料稱集團據點含台灣、中國、越南、印尼與美國辦公室；華南永昌/104等資料顯示截至2026年2月底集團員工約2,851人，104台灣職缺頁則列台灣公司員工約390人，兩者口徑不同。主要股東與董監持股方面，富邦/鉅亨資料顯示寶建企業股份有限公司持有約56,216,081股、約14.13%，寶建科技股份有限公司約36,549,118股，林孟經約26,239,427股；寶建科技董事代表與寶成工業集團關係密切。

Business

三芳為PU合成皮、人工皮革、合成樹脂、薄膜與功能材料製造商，主要產品包括聚氨基甲酸加工品、人工皮革、合成樹脂、超細纖維、TPU/PU相關材料、成衣薄膜，以及子公司貝達先進材料的半導體CMP研磨墊。公司商業模式以材料研發、客製化開發、品牌指定材料、供應製鞋代工廠與其他加工廠為核心；主要終端應用為運動鞋鞋材，其次為成衣、運動用品、汽車、家具裝潢、醫療、電子產品與半導體耗材。公開資料與法說/研究文章多指稱鞋材仍占營收九成以上，2024年鞋材相關產品占比約九成至九成三；主要品牌客戶包括 Nike、Adidas、New Balance、Puma、On、Decathlon 等，製鞋端客戶/下游包含寶成、豐泰等大型製鞋代工集團。2024年合併營收為新台幣107.79822億元，EPS 3.72元；2025年全年營收約108.15億元、EPS 2.85元，獲利較2024年下滑；2026年前5月累計營收約48.10459億元，年增約3.72%，2026年第1季EPS約0.97元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分三條主線。第一，核心鞋材：全球運動鞋品牌去庫存結束後，跑鞋、戶外與機能鞋需求回溫有利三芳稼動率與產品組合，但公司仍高度依賴國際品牌新品週期、Nike/Adidas/New Balance等品牌銷售與製鞋代工排程；2025年營收僅小幅成長而EPS下滑，顯示本業仍受產品組合、費用與原料價格影響。第二，成衣膜與環保材料：成衣薄膜、熱熔膠條、防水透濕膜、熱轉印與TPO/TPU相關材料，是公司分散鞋材集中度與提高毛利率的成長方向，若品牌客戶對低碳、可回收與無溶劑材料採用率提升，2026至2028年可望擴大占比。第三，半導體材料：100%持股子公司貝達先進材料主攻CMP研磨墊，受惠中國大陸半導體國產化與先進製程耗材需求，市場報導稱近年營運明顯提升；但CMP驗證期長、客戶集中、技術門檻與國際競爭強，短期占三芳合併營收比重仍低。主要風險包括：PU/TPU樹脂、溶劑、布基與石化原料價格波動；中東/石化供給衝擊造成下半年毛利壓力；美元、越南盾、印尼盾與人民幣匯率；美中貿易、關稅與品牌供應鏈移轉；品牌客戶議價能力高；環保法規、碳費、DMF/溶劑管制與ESG稽核；半導體材料驗證不如預期。2026至2028年若鞋材維持中個位數成長、成衣膜放量、CMP研磨墊提高毛利占比，營收與毛利率有機會改善；反之，若品牌需求放緩或原料上漲無法轉嫁，獲利將承壓。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 產業上游代表；PVC、石化及塑膠原料供應商，與三芳PU/PVC人工皮革、薄膜與塑膠加工材料有上游關聯，但未查得公開資料確認其為三芳特定供應商。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 產業上游代表；塑膠、聚酯、薄膜與化工材料供應商，與鞋材基布、塑膠膜、樹脂材料鏈相關；未確認為三芳特定供應商。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 產業上游代表；合成纖維、塑化與化工材料供應商，與人工皮革基布、纖維與樹脂上游相關；未確認為三芳特定供應商。
  • 南寶樹脂化學工廠股份有限公司 4766 樹脂、接著劑與鞋材化學材料供應鏈相關上市公司；同時在鞋材材料領域有部分產品重疊，未確認為三芳特定供應商。
  • 化工溶劑、PU/TPU樹脂、布基與離型紙供應商 三芳生產PU合成皮、薄膜與功能材料所需之一般上游類別；實際供應商名單未完整公開。
Downstream
  • 寶成工業股份有限公司 9904 台股上市製鞋代工龍頭，市場與公開資料多將其列為三芳鞋材下游製鞋端客戶/關係企業；寶建科技董事代表亦與寶成集團有關。
  • 豐泰企業股份有限公司 9910 台股上市製鞋代工大廠，為運動鞋供應鏈下游代表；市場資料稱三芳材料出貨至寶成、豐泰等製鞋廠。
  • 裕元工業集團 香港上市製鞋與通路集團，與寶成集團關係密切，屬三芳鞋材下游製鞋供應鏈代表。
  • Nike, Inc. 美國上市運動品牌，公開徵才與市場資料列為三芳終端品牌客戶之一；品牌通常指定材料，再由製鞋廠採購加工。
  • Adidas AG 德國上市運動品牌，公開徵才與市場資料列為三芳終端品牌客戶之一。
  • New Balance 未上市運動品牌，市場資料列為三芳主要品牌客戶之一。
  • Puma SE 德國上市運動品牌，市場資料列為三芳終端品牌客戶之一。
  • On Holding AG 瑞士/美國上市運動品牌，公開徵才與市場資料列為三芳終端品牌客戶之一。
  • Decathlon 法國未上市運動用品通路與品牌，公開徵才與市場資料列為三芳終端品牌客戶之一。
  • 半導體晶圓廠與CMP耗材使用客戶 子公司貝達先進材料CMP研磨墊下游應用為半導體與光電製程；公開資料未揭露完整客戶名單，市場報導以中國大陸半導體國產化需求為主要動能。

Competitors

  • 南良國際股份有限公司 5450 台股上櫃，機能性紡織、鞋材、複合材料與薄膜相關產品，與三芳在鞋材/功能材料應用部分重疊。
  • 八貫企業股份有限公司 1342 台股上市，TPU氣密布、功能性材料與戶外/醫療/救生應用，與三芳在高分子薄膜與機能材料應用部分重疊。
  • 鼎基先進材料股份有限公司 6585 台股上市，TPU材料、薄膜與功能材料廠，與三芳TPU/薄膜材料應用部分重疊。
  • 信立化學工業股份有限公司 4303 台股上櫃，PU/PVC合成皮與塑膠皮布相關，與三芳人工皮革產品具較直接競爭關係。
  • 南寶樹脂化學工廠股份有限公司 4766 台股上市，鞋材接著劑、樹脂與材料方案供應商，部分鞋材化學材料與客戶群重疊，但產品定位不完全相同。
  • Kuraray Co., Ltd. 日本上市化學材料公司，超纖與合成皮革材料全球競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Toray Industries, Inc. 日本上市纖維與高分子材料公司，在超纖、合成皮革與功能材料領域具全球競爭力；非台股掛牌。
  • Dow Inc. / DuPont / Entegris 等國際CMP與材料供應商 美國上市或跨國材料公司，在半導體CMP耗材、拋光墊或相關材料領域與貝達先進材料的長期布局有競爭關係；非台股掛牌。
Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.