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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1319 東陽. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1319
1319
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 東陽 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 76th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.2%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 40th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 66th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 群益金鼎 has accumulated 13,383 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 港商麥格理 peaked at 786 lots, has sold 62%, 302 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.25pp, mid holders -13, retail +0.48pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,699 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 群益金鼎 +13,383
- 玉山證券 +4,887
- 富邦證券 +4,250
- 兆豐證券 +3,574
- 華南永昌 +3,054
- 台新-台北 +2,820
Distributing
- 港商麥格理 302 left
- 國泰-敦南 322 left
- 富邦-台北 169 left
- 凱基-城中 103 left
- 元大-館前 51 left
- 元大-路竹 87 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -9,009
- 美商高盛 -8,582
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -8,222
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -6,327
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 809 | +18.9% | +1.5% | 52.8% | -1% |
| 20-40 | 432 | +1.4% | -9.7% | 29.4% | -16% |
| 40-60 | 441 | +0.6% | -5.8% | 35.1% | -26.9% |
| 60-80 You are here | 613 | +25.1% | +22% | 59.7% | +8.4% |
| 80-100 | 730 | +29.3% | +31% | 79.6% | +24.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.4, at the 65.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 520 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.2%, win rate 34.8%, lagged the market by 9.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.78%, win rate 69.6%, beating the market by +11.42 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
41 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.68%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +2.77 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.8%, win rate 51.8%, beating the market by -0.25 pts on average.
What does 東陽 do? Company profile
Overview
東陽前身為創辦人吳篙於1952年開創之汽車零件事業，公司法人「東陽實業廠股份有限公司」於1967年10月30日設立，總部位於台南市安南區安和路二段98號。1994年12月12日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市（代號1319）。實收資本額約新台幣59.14億元（登記資本額80億元）。現任董事長吳永豐、副董事長吳永茂、總經理吳永祥，經營權由吳氏家族掌握，屬家族企業。生產與行銷據點涵蓋台灣（台南、桃園）、中國大陸（多座OEM廠）、美國與義大利，全球生產據點合計約25處。員工確切人數未取得官方數字。
Business
全球最大的汽車「售後維修市場（AM）」塑膠件與鈑金件製造商，產品以碰撞修理用零件為主，包括保險桿、水箱護罩、葉子板、引擎蓋、儀表板、燈飾件及鈑金件等；塑膠AM件全球市佔率約70%、鈑金AM件約35%。產品分為高毛利的AM（售後維修）與OEM（原廠）兩大市場，AM約佔營收七至八成、為獲利主力（2024年AM約佔合併稅前獲利74%），其中AM以北美為最大市場（約佔AM營收近七成），其次為中南美與歐洲；OEM以中國大陸為主，供應一汽、長安、東風、廣汽等車廠，並為台灣國產車最大塑膠件OEM供應商。公司在AM碰撞件領域擁有超過25,000個模具品項，每年模具開發投入約新台幣15億元，構成極高進入門檻。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能：(1) 北美汽車保險公司（如State Farm等）擴大將副廠AM件納入理賠賠付範圍，帶動AM碰撞件需求結構性成長，台廠直接受惠；(2) 高值化產品開發，如智能儀表板、觸控面板、光電飾件與3D真空鍍膜飾件，提升單價與毛利；(3) 油電混合車（HEV）市場回升、汽車保有量與平均車齡上升，擴大維修零件需求。挑戰與風險：中國大陸OEM業務因當地競爭激烈、價格壓力，長期處於虧損或微利，拖累整體獲利；美國對進口汽車零件之關稅政策與中美貿易摩擦、新台幣匯率波動、塑膠與鋼材等原物料價格、海運成本，以及純電動車（BEV）補貼退場後的市場變化，皆為不確定因素。公司以分散生產基地、深化北美與歐洲市場、持續開發新模具及電動車飾件因應。註：2025–2028具體財測（含EPS、配息預估）屬市場估計，非公司正式保證。
Supply Chain
Competitors
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.