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1521

大億 Automobile As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大億 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 57Quality 45Growth 68Momentum 47Chips 16

Is 大億 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 39th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 68th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-南勢角 holds 124 lots
  • sellers have 14 lots left, ~15 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-南勢角 has accumulated 124 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 78 lots, has sold 88%, 9 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.65pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.53pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-南勢角凱基-中港元大-竹山台新-高雄凱基-高美館合庫-嘉義
Distributing
元大證券統一元大-土城永寧統一-新台中美好-楊梅凱基-南崁
Desks
own scale
台新-台南國票-北高雄新光台新-松江
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-南勢角 +124
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-中港 +94
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-竹山 +90
    sold 0%
  • 台新-高雄 +65
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 凱基-高美館 +55
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 合庫-嘉義 +47
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 9 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 統一 12 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 元大-土城永寧 12 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 統一-新台中 11 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 美好-楊梅 5 left
    sold 58%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-南崁 7 left
    sold 36%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台新-台南 -152
    unclassified
  • 國票-北高雄 -93
    unclassified
  • 新光 -69
    unclassified
  • 台新-松江 -68
    unclassified
Still selling 14 lots ~15 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +281 absorbed / -18 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -3 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.04%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

54 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49%, Sample 51, Median -0.12%, Excess +1.82%, Beat mkt rate 49%；60-day: Win 51%, Sample 51, Median +0.59%, Excess +0.96%, Beat mkt rate 37.3%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 49, Median -1.98%, Excess -2.91%, Beat mkt rate 30.6%

120 days after: historical avg +4.83%

20-day +2.84%
60-day +5.96%
120-day +4.83%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49%
51%
42.9%
Sample
51
51
49
Median
-0.12%
+0.59%
-1.98%
Excess
+1.82%
+0.96%
-2.91%
Beat mkt rate
49%
37.3%
30.6%

Over 49 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.83%, lagged the market by 2.91 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 441+0.1% -2.1% 45.8% -16.7%
20-40 357+13.3% +7.2% 66.4% +1.1%
40-60 387+13.3% +6.2% 78% +0.3%
60-80 467+2.9% +0.1% 50.7% -20.7%
80-100 You are here1388-5.1% -6.3% 42.8% -21.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 37.39, at the 87.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.7%
Win rate 36.7% Excess -6.1%
218d
+0.7%
Win rate 48.3% Excess -6.1%
379d
Now
+1.4%
Win rate 43% Excess -7.9%
849d
60-day momentum down
+3.8%
Win rate 64% Excess -3.3%
469d
+14.8%
Win rate 91.9% Excess +5.7%
308d
-4.3%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -14.2%
933d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 849 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.4%, win rate 43%, lagged the market by 7.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.7%, win rate 52%, beating the market by +3.54 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

54 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.47%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by -2.34 pts on average.

What does 大億 do? Company profile

汽車工業；汽機車、軌道、航太照明燈具與模具 上市；台灣證券交易所

Overview

大億交通工業製造股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股，股票代號 1521。公司前身為 1964 年成立之大億實業社，1976 年 1 月 28 日因業務擴大改名為大億交通工業製造股份有限公司，1997 年 10 月 6 日於台灣證券交易所上市。總部位於台南市南區新信路 11 號，另有安工廠位於台南市南區新樂路。董事長為吳俊億，總經理為莊智清。實收資本額為新台幣 762,300 仟元，已發行普通股 76,230,000 股。2024 年永續報告書揭露員工 748 人；2025 年年報揭露 2025 年員工 705 人、截至 2026 年 4 月 13 日為 707 人。2025 年主要股東包括株式會社小糸製作所 24,774,750 股、持股 32.50%；大緯投資企業股份有限公司 20,817,622 股、持股 27.31%；億亨投資股份有限公司 3.35%；吳俊億 1.65%；國啟敏投資股份有限公司 1.57%。公司與日本小糸製作所有技術合作，年報揭露合作期間為 2022 年 4 月 23 日至 2028 年 4 月 22 日。

Business

大億為台灣 OEM 車燈專業廠，主要業務為汽車燈具、機車燈具、軌道燈具、航太燈具、集魚燈具、模具及相關照明設備之設計、製造、銷售與進出口。2025 年全年營收結構為車燈新台幣 3,246,018 仟元、占 89.42%；模具 55,817 仟元、占 1.54%；其他 328,124 仟元、占 9.04%；合計 3,629,959 仟元。2025 年地區別營收為國內 56.36%、美國 40.18%、日本 0.32%、中國 0.24%、其他 2.90%。2025 年前三季法說資料顯示產品別仍以車燈 89% 為主，地區別為台灣 56.19%、美國 39.90%、日本 0.40%、中國 0.25%、其他 3.26%。產品包含汽車頭燈、前霧燈、晝行燈、方向燈、尾燈、尾飾燈、氛圍燈、內飾燈、門檻燈、車標燈、牌照燈；機車頭燈、尾燈、方向燈；航太夜視系統、探索燈、落地燈、滑行燈；軌道車廂照明、LED 顯示、閱讀燈、指示燈、尾燈；以及 LED 集魚燈。商業模式以 OEM 客戶為主，配合車廠新車型開發、量產供應與模具開發，並逐步拓展軌道、航太與光電產品。公司官網揭露國內合作客戶包括國瑞汽車、中華汽車、鴻華先進、裕隆汽車、福特汽車、本田汽車、山葉機車、台鈴機車、Gogoro、台灣車輛、台北捷運、台灣鐵路、台灣高鐵、漢翔航空；國外客戶包括小糸製作所、Stellantis 及多家軌道交通業者。2025 年年報揭露國內市場占有率約 80%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望重點在於車燈高值化、北美外銷、軌道與航太燈具多角化。公司 2025 年年報指出車用照明由單純照明轉向行車安全、造型設計與品牌識別整合，LED、Bi 機能、多眼控制、薄型化、模組化平台、隱藏式發光、半鍍膜車標燈、AFS/ADB 智慧照明與低能耗 LED 模組是主要技術方向。2026 年公司預期台灣國內汽車銷售台數約 43 至 44 萬輛，營運策略為確保國內四輪訂單、拓展二輪市場與外銷市場，並持續爭取新車型燈具與模具訂單。2025 年法說資料揭露未來展望為鞏固國內 OEM 市場，配合國內車廠全球化策略開拓海外 OEM、ODM 市場，並跨足航太、軌道燈具及光電產品。2025 年新聞資料顯示，公司受關稅不確定性影響，已提高訂單與北美發貨倉拉貨追蹤頻率，並爭取客戶負擔關稅；新訂單方面，國內新增二輪與四輪車訂單，二輪車新單預計 2025 年底至 2026 年初出貨，北美燃油車新單預計 2026 至 2027 年陸續交貨。2028 年前可觀察與小糸技術合作期內是否帶動北美、亞洲與國際分工專案。主要風險包括美國關稅與貿易政策、匯率波動、國內車市需求、供應鏈中斷、原料成本上升、人才與勞動力短缺、全球車燈大廠高階技術競爭、中國廠商成本與產能壓力，以及車廠新車開發時程延後。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 奇美實業 PMMA、ABS、AAS、PC 等工程塑膠與樹脂供應來源；未上市公司。
  • 南亞塑膠 1303 PP、PET+PBT 等塑膠原料供應來源之一，台股上市公司。
  • 晉倫科技 6151 年報揭露 PP 國內供應來源包含晉倫；台股上櫃公司，實際供應品項與金額未具名揭露。
  • 華宏新技 8240 年報揭露 BMC 國內供應來源包含華宏；台股上市公司，實際供應金額未具名揭露。
  • 三菱化學 PMMA、PC 等國外工程塑膠供應來源；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 旭化成 PMMA 國外供應來源；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • SABIC PC、PET+PBT 等國外原料供應來源；海外企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 杜邦 PET+PBT 國外供應來源；美國企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 小糸製作所 日本技術合作與大股東，提供設計技術、人才培育、集團資源與集中採購指導；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 國瑞汽車 汽車燈具 OEM 客戶；和泰車與豐田相關合資製造公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 中華汽車 2204 汽車燈具 OEM 客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 鴻華先進 2258 汽車燈具客戶，台股上市公司，主要為電動車平台與整車開發。
  • 裕隆汽車 2201 汽車燈具客戶，官網以裕隆汽車/裕隆日產相關品牌列示；台股上市公司。
  • 福特汽車 汽車燈具客戶；台灣福特六和與 Ford 集團相關，非台股掛牌。
  • 本田汽車 汽車燈具客戶；Honda Taiwan/本田集團相關，非台股掛牌。
  • 山葉機車 機車燈具客戶；Yamaha Taiwan 相關，非台股掛牌。
  • 睿能創意 Gogoro 機車燈具客戶；美國上市或海外架構公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣高鐵 2633 軌道燈具應用客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 台北捷運 軌道燈具客戶，未上市公營/半公營交通事業。
  • 台灣鐵路 軌道燈具客戶，國營鐵路公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 漢翔航空 2634 航太燈具客戶，公司 2021 年取得漢翔認證成為航空燈具供應商；台股上市公司。
  • Alstom 軌道交通燈具相關國際客戶/專案合作對象，法國上市企業，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 帝寶工業 6605 台股上市車燈廠，主要偏 AM 售後維修市場，但在車燈製造、光學設計與海外市場上與大億具競爭或比較關係。
  • 堤維西 1522 台股上市汽車燈具廠，源於大億早年 AM 業務分出，現為全球售後維修車燈重要廠商。
  • 麗清科技 3346 台股上市車用 LED 模組與車燈電子相關供應商，與大億在車用照明高值化趨勢下具部分競合。
  • 小糸製作所 全球車燈大廠，也是大億大股東與技術合作方；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Stanley Electric 日本車燈與 LED 大廠，非台股掛牌。
  • FORVIA HELLA 歐洲車燈與車用電子大廠，非台股掛牌。
  • Valeo 法國汽車零組件與車燈系統大廠，非台股掛牌。
  • Marelli 國際汽車零組件與照明系統供應商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.