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1722

台肥 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台肥 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 62Quality 26Growth 32Momentum 41Chips 97

Is 台肥 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 25th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 74th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 79th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 20.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.33
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 美商高盛 holds 2,510 lots
  • sellers have 2,522 lots left, ~290 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 2,510 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 2,277 lots, has sold 56%, 1,001 left, ~78 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.36pp, mid holders +6, retail +1.90pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,244 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛聯邦-忠孝凱基-三重永豐金-桃盛元大-博愛元富-緯城
Distributing
國泰-敦南新光國票-安和台新-緯城兆豐-台中港永豐金-竹科
Desks
own scale
美林元大證券康和國泰證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +2,510
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 聯邦-忠孝 +2,001
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-三重 +1,697
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-桃盛 +879
    sold 0%
  • 元大-博愛 +876
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-緯城 +772
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 1,001 left
    sold 56%· ~78 sessions to clear
  • 新光 369 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 國票-安和 267 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 台新-緯城 287 left
    sold 30%· ~34 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐-台中港 106 left
    sold 70%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-竹科 42 left
    sold 88%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美林 -4,324
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -4,187
    unclassified
  • 康和 -2,241
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -2,224
    unclassified
Still selling 2,522 lots ~290 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +6,879 absorbed / -1,315 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,950 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 15%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 historical occurrences (since 2012-08-10)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 48.3%, Sample 60, Median -0.17%, Excess -0.19%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；60-day: Win 45%, Sample 60, Median -0.52%, Excess -2.17%, Beat mkt rate 35%；120-day: Win 50.8%, Sample 59, Median +0.16%, Excess -4.92%, Beat mkt rate 33.9%

120 days after: historical avg +0.19%

20-day +0.28%
60-day +0.36%
120-day +0.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.3%
45%
50.8%
Sample
60
60
59
Median
-0.17%
-0.52%
+0.16%
Excess
-0.19%
-2.17%
-4.92%
Beat mkt rate
46.7%
35%
33.9%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.19%, lagged the market by 4.92 pts; win rate 50.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 756-7.9% -10.6% 26.2% -24.1%
20-40 1026+12.2% +11.9% 75.1% -12.2%
40-60 472+4.5% +5.4% 63.1% -5.4%
60-80 You are here467+3.6% +4% 51.2% -13.6%
80-100 279-10.1% -13.3% 22.6% -9.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 46.97, at the 79.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.8%
Win rate 54.4% Excess -11.9%
704d
+5.7%
Win rate 71.8% Excess +3.7%
712d
Now
-5.1%
Win rate 25.5% Excess -12.7%
247d
60-day momentum down
0%
Win rate 45.3% Excess -10%
730d
+1.9%
Win rate 56.4% Excess -9.5%
303d
-1.8%
Win rate 44.8% Excess -10.1%
424d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 247 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.1%, win rate 25.5%, lagged the market by 12.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.86%, win rate 45%, beating the market by -1.83 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.13%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.03 pts on average.

What does 台肥 do? Company profile

化學工業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

台肥為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，股票代號1722，簡稱台肥，產業別為化學工業。公司成立於1946年5月1日，上市日期為1998年3月24日，總部位於台北市南港區經貿一路170號17樓。實收資本額98億元，普通股發行股數9.8億股。依2026年資料，董事長為張滄郎，總經理為陳右欣，發言人為鍾俊銘，股務代理為福邦證券。2025年底員工人數約678人。主要股東依2026年3月29日年報資料：農業部持股235,886,376股、24.07%；合作金庫商業銀行3.99%；中華郵政3.50%；保力達2.19%；海洋投資1.66%；保倉達投資1.64%；大亦投資1.49%；威昌投資1.34%；另有外資保管專戶及保力達投資等。公司源自肥料國營事業，1999年民營化後仍具公股色彩，農業部為最大股東。

Business

台肥主要業務包含肥料、化工、電子級化學品、不動產開發租賃、乾淨能源、深層海水與轉投資。2025年合併營收120.877億元，年增1.81%；營業利益3.621億元，年減34.13%；稅後淨利9.322億元，年減52.57%，EPS約0.95元。經營比重資料顯示，肥料化工產品約64.62%、房地銷售約17.43%、租賃約14.17%、其他約3.78%。肥料產品包括硫酸銨、尿素、氯化鉀、過磷酸鈣、複合肥料、有機質肥料、緩釋肥、微生物肥料等；台肥為台灣最大、歷史最久的肥料供應商，國內肥料市占約七成，主要供應農會、肥料商與農民。化工產品包括液氨、藍氨、硝酸、硫酸、磺胺酸、發煙硫酸、工業尿素、美耐明、工業級硫酸銨等，其中液氨為台灣主要供應商，硝酸具自有液氨原料優勢。電子級化學品包括洗淨液、蝕刻液、有機溶劑、無機酸鹼液等，應用於半導體、面板、太陽能、LED等製程。2025年實際生產肥料512,764公噸、化工174,063公噸；銷售肥料600,139公噸、化工123,355公噸。不動產為重要獲利來源，南港C2 TFC南港經貿大樓出租率於2025年12月逾94.2%，2025年租金收入約24.6億元；新竹TFC ONE滿租，南港C4與新竹D7-B為後續開發案。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為四條主軸。第一，肥料本業在政府照顧農民與肥料價格受政策約束下，短期毛利仍承壓；公司策略為降低虧損、改善產品組合，發展添加國內農業資源物的複合肥、緩控釋肥、液態緩釋肥與有機質肥料，並爭取農業減碳補助。第二，化工與電子級化學品將受惠台灣半導體先進製程擴產及AI供應鏈需求，公司預計投資約13.85億元推動廢硫酸資源再利用計畫，將半導體廢硫酸處理後轉化為工業用硫酸銨，並規劃電子級溶劑儲槽與蒸餾塔製程改良；公司管理層亦表示將優先對接承租台肥新竹及南港不動產的半導體客戶，把房客轉為化學品合作夥伴。第三，低碳氨與藍氨是乾淨能源及半導體低碳供應鏈布局之一，2025年已導入國際認證低碳氨約6,000噸並推動藍氨上市；但氫能發電因成本與客戶不確定，已偏向暫緩或審慎評估。第四，不動產資產活化為2026至2028年主要現金流增量來源，南港C4商辦工程進行中，年報列示預計2028年完工；新竹D7-B施工中，年報列示預計2029年完成，但2026年新聞指出已有半導體大廠洽談全棟承租，可能使租金收益由現有每年約24億元再提升。主要風險包括國際尿素、液氨、氯化鉀、硫磺、磷礦等原料價格與海運費波動；國內肥料價格政策限制；中國大陸與東南亞化工產能競爭；電子級化學品認證週期長、市場已有強勢供應商；不動產景氣與利率變化；開發案工期及招商不確定性；資安、碳費、環保與職安風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Saudi Arabian Mining Company（Ma'aden） 液氨主要供應商，沙烏地阿拉伯上市公司；2025年為台肥第一大進貨廠商，占進貨淨額約16%。
  • SABIC Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd. 液氨年約供應商，隸屬沙烏地基礎工業公司體系，非台股掛牌。
  • Agromate 氯化鉀供應商，2025年占台肥進貨淨額約12%，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 熔硫供應來源，台灣國營企業，未上市。
  • 朱拜爾肥料公司 台肥與沙烏地SABIC相關方合資之轉投資，可回銷尿素，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 台豐興實業有限公司 肥料產品主要客戶，2025年占台肥肥料銷售約17.13%，未上市。
  • 金豐田有限公司 肥料產品主要客戶，2025年占台肥肥料銷售約13.24%，未上市。
  • 欣台化工有限公司 化工產品主要客戶，2025年占台肥化工銷售約44.13%，未上市。
  • 川慶化學股份有限公司 電子級化學品主要客戶，2025年占台肥電化品銷售約16.73%，未上市。
  • 聯仕電子化學材料股份有限公司 2024年台肥電化品主要客戶之一，專精超高純度電子化學材料，未上市櫃。
  • 農會、肥料商、農民 肥料產品終端通路與用戶；農會與肥料商多非上市櫃公司，農民為終端用戶。
  • 半導體、面板、太陽能、LED、食品、鋼鐵、環保、化工等工業客戶 化工品及電子級化學品終端應用產業；具體客戶多未由公司完整揭露。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.