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2027

大成鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大成鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 75Quality 78Growth 82Momentum 63Chips 98

Is 大成鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~80% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 34th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 23.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 42.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.97
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 68,713 lots
  • sellers have 6,315 lots left, ~83 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 68,713 lots since the start (sold 6%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 5,421 lots, has sold 25%, 4,065 left, ~83 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.50pp, mid holders -4, retail -5.34pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,804 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北美林摩根大通
Distributing
港商野村中國信託-高雄凱基-大安台灣企銀-岡山兆豐-復興凱基-虎尾
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎元大證券國泰證券玉山證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +68,713
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +45,256
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +34,082
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +28,408
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +21,476
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +14,501
    sold 4%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商野村 4,065 left
    sold 25%· ~83 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託-高雄 817 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 凱基-大安 674 left
    sold 54%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 台灣企銀-岡山 749 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-復興 194 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 凱基-虎尾 261 left
    sold 72%· ~34 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -30,970
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -19,271
    unclassified
  • 國泰證券 -11,618
    unclassified
  • 玉山證券 -10,477
    unclassified
Still selling 6,315 lots ~83 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +68,999 absorbed / -2,731 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 42.52%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

89 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.6%, Sample 73, Median +2.26%, Excess +1.14%, Beat mkt rate 49.3%；60-day: Win 56.3%, Sample 71, Median +2.17%, Excess +4.1%, Beat mkt rate 56.3%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 70, Median +1.57%, Excess +9.54%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%

120 days after: historical avg +11.65%

20-day +2.39%
60-day +5.85%
120-day +11.65%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.6%
56.3%
57.1%
Sample
73
71
70
Median
+2.26%
+2.17%
+1.57%
Excess
+1.14%
+4.1%
+9.54%
Beat mkt rate
49.3%
56.3%
52.9%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.65%, beat the market by 9.54 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 842+3.5% +1.3% 53.7% -17%
20-40 You are here445+50.8% +36.9% 61.3% +31.9%
40-60 347+40.1% +26.1% 68% +26.7%
60-80 273+22.7% +17.6% 74.7% -6.7%
80-100 425+27.6% +20.3% 65.9% +7.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.19, at the 33.7th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.1%
Win rate 50.9% Excess -4.6%
668d
Now
+22%
Win rate 64.3% Excess +12.3%
384d
+14%
Win rate 60.3% Excess +1.9%
433d
60-day momentum down
+2.5%
Win rate 44.4% Excess -2.9%
459d
+19.3%
Win rate 72.6% Excess -4%
328d
+37.8%
Win rate 98.3% Excess +21.8%
179d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 384 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 22%, win rate 64.3%, beat the market by 12.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.87%, win rate 47.8%, beating the market by +6.95 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.94%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +0.32 pts on average.

What does 大成鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業 上市

Overview

2027 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「大成鋼」，公司全名為大成不銹鋼工業股份有限公司，英文名 TA CHEN STAINLESS PIPE CO., LTD.。公司成立於 1986/11/27，掛牌上市日期為 1996/10/24，總部位於台南市仁德區新田二街125號，董事長為謝麗雲，總經理為謝榮坤，統一編號 22318348。依 2026 年公開股市資料，實收資本額為新台幣 25,842,606,150 元，已發行普通股 2,584,260,615 股；依 113 年度年報，114/3/31 合併員工約 5,117 人。主要股東依 113 年度年報 114/4/13 資料包括大成國際鋼鐵、大成帝國工業、大英成投資、元大台灣高股息基金、花旗託管挪威中央銀行投資專戶、謝瀚尹、謝佩融、謝榮坤及東羿投資等。公司透過美國大成國際 Ta Chen International、Empire Resources、Brighton-Best International、大成國際鋼鐵及其他子公司，形成台灣運籌、全球生產、全球銷售的控股與通路架構。

Business

大成鋼為不銹鋼材、鋁材、工業扣件與窗飾產品的製造及一次批發通路商。113 年度產品營收比重為不銹鋼產品 37%、鋁製產品 37%、螺絲螺帽 23%、窗飾及其他 3%。主要產品包括不銹鋼管、方管、扁鐵、管接頭、閥門、鑄造件、不銹鋼捲與裁剪加工品、鋁捲板、螺絲螺帽、手工具與工業耗品、塑膠及木質窗簾板等。不銹鋼產品用途涵蓋化學、醫院、藥廠、食品及釀酒工業；扣件用於機械業扣件與零組件；鋁製品用於工業及建築材料；窗飾及其他用於居家裝修與汽車工業配件。商業模式上，公司整合亞洲與全球供應商、自有加工能力、實體倉儲通路與電子商務平台，銷售予歐美零售商、配銷商及二次批發商。113 年度銷售地區以外銷為主，外銷占 98%，其中美洲占總營收 91%，歐洲 2%，澳洲 4%，亞洲 1%，內銷 2%。年報指出集團在美國市場為最大進口不銹鋼產品批發業者之一，TCI 在收購 ERI 及美鋁旗下工廠後成為美國通用鋁材需求的領導供應者，BBI-USA 為美國最大工業標準扣件一次批發業者之一。113 年度最近二年度任一年度占銷貨總額 10% 以上客戶為 RELIANCE，113 年度銷貨 9,876,440 千元，占 11%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以美國市場需求、利率環境、鋼鋁關稅與公司美國在地產能為核心。公司 113 年度年報列示 114 年度經營方針為做好產銷配合以降低成本並提高競爭力、穩固美國子公司行銷通路拓展以增加營收及利潤；預期 114 年度銷售量為不銹鋼產品 20 萬噸、螺絲螺帽 20 萬噸、鋁製產品 28 萬噸、窗飾及其他 2 萬噸，合計 70 萬噸。2025 年美國鋼鋁 232 關稅及反傾銷、反補貼措施提高進口競爭者成本，對具美國鋁材生產與通路布局的大成鋼相對有利，但也會使客戶短期採購資金需求上升、補庫存節奏延後。2025 年 11 月法說會報導指出，公司認為鋁與不鏽鋼需求仍正向，鋁材因約 80% 產能在德州本地、採購前置期較短，需求恢復速度快於高度依賴進口的不鏽鋼；展望 2026，補貨循環與降息可能改善客戶融資額度與採購能力。2026 年報導指出，2025 年全年營收約新台幣 1,018 億元、年增 12.8%，德州鋁廠擴建進入全面量產階段，自製率提高有望降低外購半成品、物流與交期成本，法人估計每年可節省逾 7,000 萬美元支出；該數字屬媒體引用法人估算，非公司財測。2027 至 2028 年若美國製造業、住宅、基建、MRO 維修市場與鋁材需求延續，德州鋁產線放量、Bristol Pipe and Tube 提升不銹鋼管美國自製量、通路與數位化系統整合可望成為成長動能。主要風險包括美國利率下降不如預期、景氣循環轉弱、客戶庫存回補低於預期、鎳與鋁價波動、美元匯率與借款利率、全球貿易保護政策變化、供應商遭反傾銷或反補貼稅造成貨源不穩、鋼鐵與扣件市場價格競爭激烈。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中鋼 2002 年報描述不銹鋼與碳鋼鋼胚等上游原料來源包括中鋼等金屬煉鋼公司；中鋼為台灣上市公司。
  • 唐榮 2035 年報描述上游金屬煉鋼公司包括唐榮，供應不銹鋼或碳鋼鋼胚等原料；唐榮為台灣上市公司。
  • 燁興 2007 年報描述上游金屬煉鋼公司包括燁興，供應不銹鋼或碳鋼鋼胚等原料；燁興為台灣上市公司。
  • TY Steel Co., Ltd. 大成鋼年報列為關聯企業，投資目的為增加銷售產品種類、取得上游穩定貨源；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 全球鋁錠、廢鋁與鋁材加工供應商 年報描述鋁材上游包括廢鋁回收煉製再生鋁合金錠、鋁合金擠型錠及鋁板片捲箔條線粒加工業者；未揭露具名台股公司。
Downstream
  • Reliance, Inc. 年報揭露 RELIANCE 為 113 年度占銷貨總額 10% 以上客戶，銷貨占比 11%；Reliance 為美國 NYSE 上市金屬服務中心公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 大國鋼 8415 大成國際鋼鐵股份有限公司，為大成鋼關係企業與扣件買賣通路，台股上櫃公司，主要經營扣件買賣。
  • Ta Chen International Inc. 美國子公司，負責不銹鋼管、不銹鋼捲、管配件等製造與買賣，為大成鋼美國不銹鋼及鋁材通路核心；未在台股掛牌。
  • Brighton-Best International, Inc. 美國子公司，進出口及銷售螺絲螺帽產品，年報稱 BBI-USA 為美國最大工業標準扣件一次批發業者之一；未在台股掛牌。
  • 歐美零售商、配銷商及二次批發商 大成鋼透過實體通路與電子商務平台提供不銹鋼、鋁材及工業扣件給歐美當地零售商、配銷商或二次批發商；多為非台股掛牌或未具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 中鋼 2002 台灣大型上游鋼鐵廠，與大成鋼在鋼鐵產業鏈部分產品與市場景氣相關，亦可能是原料供應來源。
  • 千興 2025 不銹鋼相關產品同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼不鏽鋼業務競爭對手。
  • 新鋼 2032 不銹鋼裁剪與鋼材通路相關同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼競爭對手。
  • 唐榮 2035 不銹鋼上游與相關產品同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼競爭對手，同時也是年報提及的上游來源之一。
  • 運錩 2069 不銹鋼板捲裁切、分條與表面處理同業，與大成鋼同屬不銹鋼族群。
  • 榮剛 5009 特殊鋼與鋼鐵材料同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼競爭對手。
  • 建錩 5014 不銹鋼通路與加工相關同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼競爭對手。
  • 燁聯 不銹鋼上游與相關產品同業，StockFeel 列為大成鋼競爭對手。
  • Reliance, Inc. 美國 NYSE 上市金屬服務中心公司，也是大成鋼主要客戶；在北美金屬加工與通路市場亦具競合關係，非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.