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2383

台光電 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台光電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 台光電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.9%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 91th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.9% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 114.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.17

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
美林 holds 3,408 lots
sellers have 3,151 lots left, ~2370 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +229% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 美林 has accumulated 3,408 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 4,255 lots, has sold 43%, 2,443 left, ~24 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.42pp, mid holders -14, retail +1.27pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,480 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

美林元大證券統一港商麥格理台灣摩根士丹利凱基

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀兆豐證券凱基-台北大和國泰中國信託元富

Desks

own scale

永豐金-匯立富邦證券法銀巴黎摩根大通

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

美林 +3,408

sold 0%· still adding
元大證券 +2,590

sold 12%· still adding
統一 +2,047

sold 13%
港商麥格理 +1,748

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +1,165

sold 20%· still adding
凱基 +904

sold 5%· still adding

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀 2,443 left

sold 43%· ~24 sessions to clear
兆豐證券 291 left

sold 52%· paused recently
凱基-台北 294 left

sold 49%· ~14 sessions to clear
大和國泰 237 left

sold 56%· ~2370 sessions to clear
中國信託 31 left

sold 90%· paused recently
元富 170 left

sold 42%· paused recently

Desks

永豐金-匯立 -2,611

unclassified
富邦證券 -1,721

unclassified
法銀巴黎 -1,104

hedge desk · will cover
摩根大通 -1,015

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 3,151 lots ~2370 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,862 absorbed / -1,400 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -3,453 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 114.62%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

97 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +32.45%

20-day +4.51%

60-day +15.97%

120-day +32.45%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

54.4%

66.2%

71.6%

Sample

Median

+1.5%

+8.47%

+22.97%

Excess

+2.87%

+11.12%

+23.52%

Beat mkt rate

53.2%

63.6%

62.2%

Over 74 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 32.45%, beat the market by 23.52 pts; win rate 71.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +116.6%

20-40 +88.4%

40-60 +61.5%

60-80 +53.9%

80-100 +61% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	65	+116.6%	+112.7%	100%	+94.2%
20-40	177	+88.4%	+92.6%	99.4%	+70.1%
40-60	237	+61.5%	+38.2%	86.5%	+42.6%
60-80	605	+53.9%	+46.9%	78.3%	+36.2%
80-100 You are here	1959	+61%	+38%	77.7%	+45.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 112.8, at the 99.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+52%

Win rate 100% Excess +39.2%

37d

+36.6%

Win rate 72.1% Excess +25.9%

197d

Now

+30.6%

Win rate 75.3% Excess +22.3%

1870d

60-day momentum down

+28.9%

Win rate 99.1% Excess +18.7%

114d

+15%

Win rate 63.3% Excess +10.8%

297d

+21%

Win rate 71% Excess +11.7%

648d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1870 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 30.6%, win rate 75.3%, beat the market by 22.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.63%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +11.89 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.37%, win rate 68.9%, beating the market by +9.23 pts on average.

What does 台光電 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板上游銅箔基板與黏合片材料台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

台光電為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，股票代號2383。公司成立於1992年3月24日，1998年11月27日於台灣證券交易所正式掛牌上市，總部位於桃園市觀音區觀音工業區大同一路18號。董事長兼總經理為董定宇。依2025年年報，截至2026年1月實收股本為新台幣3,583,211,140元，流通在外普通股358,321,114股；截至2026年3月31日集團員工合計7,657人。主要股東包括宇昌投資25,471,477股、持股7.11%；新制勞工退休基金22,620,482股、6.31%；銀頂投資17,253,000股、4.81%；宇盛投資12,930,000股、3.61%；中華郵政7,191,000股、2.01%；以及董定宇5,265,766股、1.47%。公司具有台灣、中國、馬來西亞與美國生產及銷售據點，2024年於馬來西亞檳城建立東南亞首個生產據點，2020年併購美國加州Arlon EMD。公司自稱為全球環保暨高階基材領航者，2013年成為全球最大綠色環保材無鹵素基板供應商，並持續維持領先地位。

Business

公司主要從事印刷電路板上游材料之研發、製造與銷售，核心產品為銅箔基板（CCL）、黏合片（prepreg, PP）與多層壓合板。2025年營業收入94,260,578千元，其中銅箔基板53,014,722千元、占56.24%；黏合片40,388,617千元、占42.85%；其他857,239千元、占0.91%。2025年銷售地區比重為中國79.11%、台灣10.28%、其他國家10.61%。產品用途為雙面或多層印刷電路板、硬板、軟板、IC載板及基板組裝相關製造，終端應用涵蓋智慧型手機、AI伺服器、一般伺服器、交換器、資料儲存、雲端資料中心、5G網路、光通訊、低軌衛星、電動車、自動駕駛、車用電子、工業及航太特殊應用。公司商業模式為高階電子材料配方、製程與客戶認證導向，透過銅箔、玻璃纖維布、環氧樹脂等原料製成CCL與PP，銷售給PCB、HDI、HLC、IC載板與相關板廠；主要客戶於年報中以甲、乙匿名揭露，2025年前兩大銷售客戶分別占14%與12%，未公開真實名稱。依公司2026年4月法說資料，2026年第1季營收33,067百萬元、年增52.5%，稅後淨利5,339百萬元，EPS 14.90元；基礎設施產品成長反映高階材料市占率提升。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司營收94,261百萬元、年增46.4%，稅後淨利14,645百萬元，EPS 41.67元，營收、獲利與毛利率均處高檔；2026年前5月累計營收62,609,488千元、年增73.18%，5月單月營收15,618,565千元、年增114.63%，公開資訊備註受惠AI伺服器成長力道。2025至2028年主要成長動能來自AI伺服器、800G與更高速交換器、雲端資料中心、邊緣運算、低軌衛星、記憶體模組、CPO模組板、224Gbps/1.6T高速交換機與高階HDI/HSD低損耗材料需求。公司2026年法說指出高階CCL市場2024至2027年年複合成長率約40%，AI CCL市場2025至2027年年複合成長率約178%，且公司預期成長率高於高階CCL市場；此為公司引用外部研究與法說前瞻資料，實際結果仍受市場需求、價格、競爭與供應鏈變動影響。產能方面，公司官網顯示目前集團總產能已達每月525萬張含檳城廠；2026年4月法說規劃2025年總產能5.85M張/月、2026年6.15M張/月、2027年9.45M張/月，新增來源包括台灣觀音、中國昆山、中山與馬來西亞檳城等；年報亦記載2025至2026年董事會通過昆山、中山、觀音新廠、Arlon EMD等投資或資本支出案。技術展望上，公司持續開發無鹵、Low Dk、Low Df、高Tg、高可靠度、高速高頻、HDI、mSAP、IC載板、CPO、光通訊矽光子模組、低軌衛星與車用雷達材料，並強調為日本、韓國以外少數具mSAP與載板材料自有技術的供應商。風險與挑戰包括銅箔、玻璃纖維布、樹脂等原料價格波動；高階產品客戶認證期長且規格升級快；一般規格CCL競爭激烈；AI伺服器與雲端資本支出循環可能波動；中國銷售比重高帶來區域景氣、匯率、地緣政治與供應鏈重組風險；快速擴產可能帶來資本支出、良率爬坡、折舊與庫存管理壓力。2028年展望未見公司明確量化指引，本研究僅能推估若AI、高速交換器與HDI載板化趨勢延續，2027新產能滿載後至2028仍可能延續高階材料成長，但需視客戶導入、價格與競爭格局而定。

Supply Chain

Upstream

金居開發股份有限公司 8358 台股上櫃銅箔廠；銅箔為台光電主要原料之一，列為潛在上游材料供應鏈同業，非年報揭露之指定供應商。
南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台股上市公司，供應鏈角色涵蓋銅箔基板、樹脂等電子材料；環氧樹脂與銅箔為台光電主要原料，南亞同時也是CCL競爭者，是否為直接供應商未公開確認。
台灣玻璃工業股份有限公司 1802 台股上市玻璃纖維/玻纖布相關廠商；玻璃纖維布為台光電主要原料之一，列為潛在上游供應鏈公司，非年報揭露之指定供應商。
長春集團未上市化工材料集團，台灣主要環氧樹脂與電子化學材料供應商之一；列為潛在上游，非年報揭露之指定供應商。
日本銅箔、玻纖布與環氧樹脂供應商年報揭露玻璃纖維布與環氧樹脂供應地區含日本、國內，銅箔供應地區為國內；未揭露具名供應商。

Downstream

欣興電子股份有限公司 3037 台股上市PCB與IC載板廠；PCB、HDI、IC載板製造為台光電CCL/PP下游應用，列為產業鏈下游關係企業，非年報揭露之具名直接客戶。
臻鼎科技控股股份有限公司 4958 台股上市PCB大廠；為高階HDI、軟硬板等下游應用代表廠商，是否為台光電直接客戶未公開確認。
健鼎科技股份有限公司 3044 台股上市PCB廠；屬銅箔基板與黏合片下游板廠族群，是否為直接客戶未公開確認。
華通電腦股份有限公司 2313 台股上市PCB與HDI板廠；屬台光電產品下游應用族群，是否為直接客戶未公開確認。
台郡科技股份有限公司 6269 台股上市軟板廠；軟板為年報所列下游應用之一，是否為直接客戶未公開確認。
Cisco、Intel、IBM等國際品牌或平台公司公司沿革提及高頻高速電性量測實驗室經Cisco、Intel、IBM等客戶認可；多為美國上市或國際企業，屬終端平台/驗證與應用端關係，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

台燿科技股份有限公司 6274 台股上櫃高階銅箔基板與黏合片廠，為台灣主要CCL競爭者。
聯茂電子股份有限公司 6213 台股上市銅箔基板與黏合片廠，為台灣主要CCL競爭者。
南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台股上市公司，具銅箔基板與電子材料業務，年報列為台灣具競爭力廠商之一。
建滔集團香港上市大型CCL與PCB材料集團，年報列為全球主要銅箔基板供應商；非台股掛牌。
生益科技中國A股上市CCL大廠，年報列為全球主要銅箔基板供應商；非台股掛牌。
松下電工／Panasonic相關電子材料事業日本企業，年報列為全球主要銅箔基板供應商之一；非台股掛牌。
斗山電子材料相關事業韓國企業，年報列為亞洲及日韓CCL競爭者之一；非台股掛牌。

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.