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2451

創見 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 創見 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 58Quality 100Growth 98Momentum 71Chips 81

Is 創見 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~100% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 33.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 7th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 6th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 469.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 永豐金-匯立 holds 3,637 lots
  • sellers have 3,420 lots left, ~81 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +21% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-匯立 has accumulated 3,637 lots since the start (sold 13%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 富邦-公益 peaked at 1,747 lots, has sold 67%, 582 left, ~11 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.56pp, mid holders -2, retail +4.21pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -9,548 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-匯立新加坡商瑞銀香港上海匯豐花旗環球摩根大通美林
Distributing
富邦-公益永豐金證券港商野村凱基-台北國票-北投統一
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利群益金鼎元大證券富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-匯立 +3,637
    sold 13%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +2,891
    sold 17%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +2,605
    sold 2%
  • 花旗環球 +2,597
    sold 8%
  • 摩根大通 +2,583
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 美林 +2,249
    sold 2%· still adding

Distributing

  • 富邦-公益 582 left
    sold 67%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 903 left
    sold 45%· ~62 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 751 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 379 left
    sold 68%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 國票-北投 118 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 統一 201 left
    sold 81%· ~5 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -8,225
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎 -7,403
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -5,395
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -4,940
    unclassified
Still selling 3,420 lots ~81 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,700 absorbed / -1,861 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -9,360 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 469.83%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

51 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 36, Median +3.16%, Excess +2.97%, Beat mkt rate 52.8%；60-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 34, Median +4.12%, Excess +6.33%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；120-day: Win 61.3%, Sample 31, Median +1.71%, Excess +10.88%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%

120 days after: historical avg +24.28%

20-day +6.67%
60-day +15.92%
120-day +24.28%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
64.7%
61.3%
Sample
36
34
31
Median
+3.16%
+4.12%
+1.71%
Excess
+2.97%
+6.33%
+10.88%
Beat mkt rate
52.8%
47.1%
41.9%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 24.28%, beat the market by 10.88 pts; win rate 61.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here413+14.9% +16.5% 88.4% -0.9%
20-40 364+11% +9% 80.8% -0.6%
40-60 460+5.5% +3.9% 59.6% -0.2%
60-80 519+22.7% +5.3% 66.9% +12.2%
80-100 1287+19.5% +7.3% 72.4% -4.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.06, at the 6.4th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+7.9%
Win rate 80% Excess +1.8%
300d
+0.8%
Win rate 57% Excess +0.5%
349d
+12.3%
Win rate 57.9% Excess +0.1%
1222d
60-day momentum down
+7.3%
Win rate 81.7% Excess +3.8%
360d
+3.9%
Win rate 53.5% Excess -1.1%
340d
+14.3%
Win rate 74.8% Excess +2.7%
592d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 300 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.9%, win rate 80%, beat the market by 1.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.37%, win rate 77.8%, beating the market by +7 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.04%, win rate 59.4%, beating the market by +2.31 pts on average.

What does 創見 do? Company profile

半導體業；記憶體模組、Flash儲存與工業嵌入式儲存解決方案 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2451 對應證券為創見資訊股份有限公司普通股，英文名 Transcend Information, Inc.，上市市場為台灣證券交易所，產業別為半導體業。公司成立於1989年8月30日，2001年5月3日上市，總部與公司地址為台北市內湖區行忠路70號。董事長為束崇萬，總經理為張宗凱，發言人為陳柏壽。公開股市資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣43.13億元，已發行普通股約4.31億股；2026年2月資料顯示股本4,307,016,750元，後續因限制員工權利新股等資本變動，部分資料來源顯示實收資本額為4,313,456,750元，應以公開資訊觀測站最新公告為準。公司自有品牌為 Transcend，長期定位為記憶體模組、快閃記憶體產品、工業用儲存與消費型儲存品牌廠。全球員工規模公開資料多載為逾2,000人，海外據點涵蓋美國、德國、荷蘭、日本、英國、韓國、中國、香港等地。主要股東依公司治理專區搜尋結果包括萬情投資股份有限公司74,783,600股、約17.40%，群益台灣精選高息ETF基金專戶40,205,000股、約9.35%，萬安科技股份有限公司34,251,854股，另有政全科技開發、萬全投資、萬民投資、合誠投資等持股。2025年度合併營收約171.25億元、營業利益約65.55億元、稅後淨利約55.68億元、EPS 12.98元；2026年第1季合併營收約136.28億元、稅後淨利約81.22億元、EPS 18.93元，顯示2025下半年至2026上半年受記憶體缺貨與報價上行影響顯著。

Business

創見主要產品與服務包括 DRAM 記憶體模組、Flash產品、SSD、工業級SSD與嵌入式儲存、記憶卡、USB隨身碟、讀卡機、外接式硬碟、行動固態硬碟、行車紀錄器、穿戴式攝影機、蘋果升級方案、企業級SSD與嵌入式鏡頭模組等。商業模式為採購DRAM與NAND Flash等記憶體顆粒、控制器與其他零組件後，進行模組設計、韌體/測試、組裝、品質驗證與品牌銷售；同時以自有品牌通路面向消費市場，並以工業級、嵌入式與客製化產品面向B2B客戶。產品營收結構方面，MoneyDJ產業資料指出截至2024年度，DRAM模組及Flash產品合計約占營收86%，其他產品如多媒體、硬碟、讀卡機及配件約占14%。較早期研究指出工控產品曾貢獻約40%營收、策略性產品約20%；2026法說摘要與市場報導則提到工控/嵌入式解決方案比重由2024年的約58.3%提升至2025年的約62.8%，但此比例需以公司最新年報或法說簡報原文再確認。主要終端應用涵蓋工業電腦、嵌入式系統、伺服器與資料中心、邊緣AI、智慧視覺、監控與安防、車載與交通、醫療設備、工廠自動化、專業影像、個人電腦升級與一般消費性儲存。主要客戶名稱多未逐一公開；從公司產品定位與媒體報導判斷，B2B客群包括工控、伺服器、邊緣運算、影像擷取與嵌入式設備製造商，B2C則透過全球經銷、電商與零售通路銷售。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長動能方面，第一，AI伺服器與CSP資本支出推升DDR5、HBM與高階記憶體需求，主要原廠產能轉向高階產品後，DDR4、部分工控長生命週期DRAM與NAND Flash供給吃緊，創見因持有庫存、長期供應協議與工控客戶黏著度，2025下半年至2026年受惠於價格上行與可供貨能力。第二，工控、嵌入式與企業級SSD比重提高，有助產品組合由低毛利消費型儲存轉向較高毛利、長驗證週期與客製化需求的B2B市場。第三，公司於COMPUTEX 2026展示企業級SSD、E1.S/E3.S/U.2/2.5吋規格、DDR5-7200 CAMM2、RDIMM、USB/MIPI/GMSL嵌入式鏡頭模組，顯示產品線正往AI邊緣運算、智慧視覺、資料中心與高可靠度工業儲存延伸。第四，工控設備、伺服器、醫療、交通、安防與智慧城市對長供貨期、寬溫、耐震、斷電保護與資料完整性的需求，有利品牌模組廠建立差異化。潛在風險方面，第一，記憶體景氣循環高度波動，若2027至2028新產能開出或終端需求放緩，DRAM/NAND價格可能反轉，導致庫存跌價損失與毛利率壓縮。第二，創見上游貨源集中於少數國際記憶體原廠，長期供應協議可穩定供貨但也限制採購量與價格彈性；董事長公開談話提及需求預測僅能獲得約三至五成滿足，供貨瓶頸可能限制營收成長。第三，企業級SSD與工控市場競爭者包括國際記憶體原廠、台灣模組廠與工業電腦廠自有儲存品牌，價格、認證、客製化服務與通路均為競爭重點。第四，匯率、關稅、地緣政治、出口管制、客戶庫存調整，以及AI投資節奏不如預期，均可能影響2025至2028年營運。整體而言，2025至2026景氣能見度較高，2027至2028需觀察AI/CSP投資延續性、DDR4與工控NAND供需是否仍吃緊、以及公司企業級與嵌入式新品是否能形成可持續出貨。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 三星電子 韓國上市記憶體原廠；媒體報導提及其為創見主要供應商之一，創見主要依長期供應協議取得DRAM/NAND貨源。
  • 美光科技 美國上市記憶體原廠；屬DRAM與NAND供應端，為創見此類模組廠可能採購或比價的重要上游，未確認個別合約內容。
  • SK海力士 韓國上市DRAM/NAND原廠；為全球三大DRAM供應商之一，影響創見DRAM模組成本與供貨，未確認直接供應比例。
  • 鎧俠 Kioxia 日本NAND Flash供應商；市場報導提及MLC供應商如Kioxia、SanDisk退出或停產MLC，影響工控NAND供給。
  • SanDisk／Western Digital 美國上市儲存與NAND供應鏈公司；市場報導提及MLC供給變化對創見工控Flash產品有影響，未確認直接採購比例。
  • 群聯電子 8299 台灣上櫃NAND Flash控制IC與儲存方案公司；屬SSD與Flash模組重要上游技術供應生態，是否為創見直接供應商未公開確認。
  • 慧榮科技 美國上市、台灣營運之NAND控制晶片公司；屬SSD/記憶卡控制器供應端，是否為創見直接供應商未公開確認。
  • 南亞科技 2408 台灣上市DRAM製造商；屬DRAM供給端與價格循環關聯企業，是否為創見直接供應商未公開確認。
  • 華邦電子 2344 台灣上市記憶體製造商；屬利基型記憶體供應端與工控記憶體生態，是否為創見直接供應商未公開確認。
Downstream
  • 研華 2395 台灣上市工業電腦與邊緣運算公司；創見工業級SSD、DRAM模組與嵌入式儲存的典型下游應用場景，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 友通資訊 2397 台灣上市工業電腦與嵌入式平台公司；屬工控與嵌入式儲存下游應用生態，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 凌華科技 6166 台灣上市邊緣運算、工控與測試量測平台公司；為工業級儲存、記憶體模組與AI視覺應用的下游生態企業，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 樺漢科技 6414 台灣上市工業電腦與工業物聯網公司；屬創見工控/嵌入式儲存產品可能服務的下游應用領域，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 安勤科技 3479 台灣上櫃工業電腦、醫療與嵌入式系統公司；屬工業級儲存與記憶體模組的下游應用生態，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 醫揚科技 6569 台灣上櫃醫療電腦與醫療顯示系統公司；醫療設備為工業級儲存、寬溫與高可靠度記憶體的終端應用之一，未確認為直接客戶。
  • 雲端服務供應商 CSP 多為美國大型雲端業者；媒體報導指出AI/CSP需求使高階記憶體與企業級SSD需求增溫，創見切入機會增加，但公司未公開具名客戶。
  • 全球經銷商、電商與零售通路 創見自有品牌消費型SSD、記憶卡、隨身碟、行車紀錄器與外接儲存產品的主要銷售通路；多數非台股掛牌或未逐一揭露。

Competitors

  • 威剛科技 3260 台灣上櫃記憶體模組與SSD品牌廠，與創見在DRAM模組、消費型SSD、工控與企業儲存市場競爭。
  • 宇瞻科技 8271 台灣上櫃記憶體模組與工業儲存廠，與創見在工控、嵌入式SSD、DRAM模組與NAND Flash產品競爭。
  • 十銓科技 4967 台灣上櫃記憶體模組與SSD品牌廠，與創見在消費型DRAM、SSD與部分工業儲存產品競爭。
  • 宜鼎國際 5289 台灣上櫃工業級記憶體與嵌入式儲存廠，與創見在工控、邊緣AI、工業SSD與嵌入式模組市場競爭。
  • 群聯電子 8299 台灣上櫃NAND控制IC與儲存解決方案公司，部分產品與SSD模組/解決方案市場重疊，同時也屬上游控制器生態。
  • 廣穎電通 4973 台灣上市記憶體模組、SSD與外接儲存品牌廠，與創見在消費型儲存與部分工控產品競爭。
  • 金士頓 Kingston 未上市國際記憶體模組與儲存品牌大廠，為創見在全球消費型DRAM、SSD與記憶卡市場的重要競爭者。
  • 三星電子 韓國上市記憶體原廠與消費/企業SSD品牌，兼具上游供應商與終端品牌競爭者角色。
  • 美光 Crucial／Micron 美國上市記憶體原廠與SSD/DRAM品牌，兼具上游供應商與終端品牌競爭者角色。
  • 鎧俠 Kioxia 日本NAND與SSD供應商，於企業與消費SSD、NAND供給端與創見存在競合關係。
Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.