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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2504 國產. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2504
2504
strong quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 國產 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.0%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 8th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 12th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 玉山-雙和 has accumulated 3,744 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 9,465 lots, has sold 26%, 7,045 left, ~197 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.18pp, mid holders +1, retail +1.05pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -6,201 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 玉山-雙和 +3,744
- 統一 +2,535
- 中國信託 +2,373
- 國泰證券 +1,767
- 元大-南京 +1,395
- 台新-建北 +1,222
Distributing
- 永豐金證券 7,045 left
- 元大-和平 1,063 left
- 國票-敦北法人 421 left
- 國泰-敦南 290 left
- 富邦-陽明 47 left
- 永豐金-敦南 202 left
Desks
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -15,768
- 美商高盛 -8,203
- 元大證券 -4,536
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -3,415
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 1267 | +23.4% | +13.4% | 67.2% | +4.2% |
| 20-40 | 497 | +17.7% | +1.3% | 52.3% | -6.2% |
| 40-60 | 241 | +43% | +45.2% | 72.2% | +18.6% |
| 60-80 | 304 | +12.5% | -7.3% | 34.2% | -6.4% |
| 80-100 | 240 | +5.7% | +0.8% | 52.5% | -6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 10.27, at the 12.1th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 931 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.8%, win rate 56%, beat the market by 2.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.61%, win rate 36%, beating the market by +1.16 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.76%, win rate 56%, beating the market by -1.13 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
60 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.42%, win rate 56.7%, beating the market by +1.42 pts on average.
What does 國產 do? Company profile
Overview
2504 對應證券為 TWSE 上市股票「國產」，ISIN TW0002504008，市場別上市，證券類別為股票，產業別為建材營造業，因此判定為普通股。公司創立於1954年，1978年3月14日於台灣證券交易所上市，總部位於台北市內湖區新湖一路8號7樓。公司英文名為 Goldsun Building Materials Co., Ltd.，英文簡稱 GBM。資本額約新台幣118億元，已發行普通股約11.80億股。董事長為徐蘭英；依2026年5月12日公告，總經理由吳志仁職務調整為徐蘭英兼任，吳志仁另新任策略長。2024年底永續報告揭露國產員工總數641人，104人力銀行頁面約列員工數600人。主要股東方面，官網主要股東名單揭露截至2025年2月28日群益台灣精選高息ETF基金專戶持股10.00%，另董監事/法人代表相關持股包括中興保全科技股份有限公司、欣蘭投資、源信投資、昌明開發、尚璟投資等；可查資料顯示前十大持股約14.2%，但完整最新前十大名單本次未能逐項確認。
Business
國產是台灣預拌混凝土龍頭企業，法說簡報列示全台共有26座預拌廠，主要分布在北、中、南區樞紐位置，可透過區域協同作業與調度，在短時間內支援大量同步澆築需求，主要服務科技廠辦、房建案與重大建設。主要業務為預拌混凝土、不動產買賣與出租，以及建材相關轉投資。2026年6月16日法說簡報揭露合併營收結構：2025年合併營收225.3億元，其中國產個體台灣混凝土189.2億元、占84.0%；國產個體商場及其他5.6億元、占2.5%；大陸預拌事業蘇州混凝土10.4億元、占4.6%；合併子公司20.1億元、占8.9%。2026年第1季合併營收50.3億元，其中台灣混凝土42.3億元、占84.1%；商場及其他1.4億元、占2.8%；蘇州混凝土1.8億元、占3.6%；合併子公司4.8億元、占9.5%。重要轉投資包括惠普公司8424持股51%、臺北港埠公司、國宇建材、國檙工程、重置資源公司持股67%，並有蘇州預拌廠與海運等相關事業。公司產品重點包括一般與高端預拌混凝土、低碳認證混凝土、高彈性模數混凝土、爐石粉與精緻砂石/粉體材料布局；英文法說簡報亦提及可追溯砂石來源、混凝土強度、澆置日期、氯離子檢驗等資訊。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年本業受台灣混凝土需求支撐，全年合併營收225.3億元、年增約3.75%，台灣混凝土仍占約84%，EPS約3.30元，並配發現金股利2.6元。2026年第1季營收50.33億元、年減6.0%，毛利率26.62%、營益率21.86%、稅後淨利率16.95%，EPS 0.70元；公司法說資料顯示建照總樓地板面積2025年合計年減17.5%，2026年1月與3月也分別年減29.2%與28.0%，反映房市與建築需求壓力。成長動能方面，公司2026年6月法說簡報指出將投資興建第2座爐石廠、啟用台中新廠與汐止二廠兩座預拌混凝土廠，推動低碳高端精緻爐石粉與材料布局；截至法說日，公司稱已有67款取得國內外低碳認證的高端混凝土，並推出科技大廠採用、具高獲利價值的高彈性模數混凝土，以支援全台AI科技廠辦建設需求。資產活化方面，公司在鄰近北士科的關渡平原持有約10筆、近2萬坪土地，若後續經國土計畫與都市計畫區段徵收並發還土地，具潛在開發價值；南港大型開發案預計2027年底左右完工，受鄰近輝達研發中心進駐題材帶動潛在價值。2027至2028年展望主要來自低碳建材滲透、AI/科技廠辦與公共建設需求、台中與汐止二廠產能開出、第二座爐石廠投產後的材料自給與產品升級，以及土地資產活化；但量化貢獻與完工投產時間表仍需後續公告確認。主要風險包括房市信用管制與建照面積下降造成量縮、公共工程時程延後、砂石水泥爐石粉等原料與運輸成本波動、蘇州預拌事業毛利率較低或中國市場景氣壓力、低碳材料投資回收期、土地開發法規與區段徵收時程不確定。
Supply Chain
- 台泥 1101 水泥為預拌混凝土主要原料；台泥為台灣主要水泥上市公司，屬國產上游水泥供應生態與同業競爭者之一，但本次未查得國產揭露其為特定年度直接供應商。
- 亞泥 1102 水泥為預拌混凝土主要原料；亞泥為台灣主要水泥上市公司，屬上游水泥供應生態與同業競爭者之一，直接供應關係未由本次資料確認。
- 中鋼 2002 爐石粉與低碳混凝土材料可使用高爐爐石等鋼鐵副產物；中鋼為台灣主要鋼鐵上市公司，屬潛在爐石原料生態關係，直接供應關係未由本次資料確認。
- 砂石、骨材與化學摻料供應商 砂石、骨材、水泥、爐石粉、化學摻料與運輸服務為預拌混凝土核心上游；國產英文法說簡報提及可追溯砂石來源、混凝土強度、澆置日期與氯離子檢驗，但未揭露完整供應商名單。
- 科技廠辦與AI建廠需求業主 法說簡報指出公司協同調度能力受到科技廠辦青睞，並稱低碳高端混凝土與高彈性模數混凝土支撐全台AI科技廠辦建設需求；未揭露具名直接客戶。
- 房建案、營造商與建築開發商 預拌混凝土主要下游為住宅、商辦與建築工程；公司法說簡報將房建列為主要應用場景，但未揭露具名直接客戶。
- 重大公共建設與基礎建設工程 公司法說簡報指出其大量同步澆築能力是獲得重大建設青睞的利基；實際專案與業主名單未於本次資料確認。
Competitors
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.