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2637

慧洋-KY Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 慧洋-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 82Quality 75Growth 83Momentum 70Chips 99

Is 慧洋-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~91% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.4%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 10th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 59th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 26.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 45.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.98
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 22,526 lots
  • sellers have 1,070 lots left, ~37 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 22,526 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 統一 peaked at 1,778 lots, has sold 29%, 1,258 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.20pp, mid holders +0, retail -3.69pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -177 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北永豐金-匯立
Distributing
統一華南永昌港商麥格理台新中國信託元大-忠孝
Desks
own scale
元大證券群益金鼎富邦證券華南永昌-古亭
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +22,526
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +11,175
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +10,509
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +7,176
    sold 17%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +7,123
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +6,171
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 統一 1,258 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 238 left
    sold 84%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 港商麥格理 722 left
    sold 36%· ~37 sessions to clear
  • 台新 366 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 中國信託 235 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 元大-忠孝 18 left
    sold 85%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -6,858
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -4,783
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -4,318
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-古亭 -3,234
    unclassified
Still selling 1,070 lots ~37 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +28,264 absorbed / -653 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2012-02-29)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 52.2%, Sample 23, Median +0.12%, Excess +1.85%, Beat mkt rate 47.8%；60-day: Win 36.4%, Sample 22, Median -1.09%, Excess +10.34%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 22, Median -0.37%, Excess +15.93%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%

120 days after: historical avg +17.19%

20-day +1.35%
60-day +9.18%
120-day +17.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.2%
36.4%
50%
Sample
23
22
22
Median
+0.12%
-1.09%
-0.37%
Excess
+1.85%
+10.34%
+15.93%
Beat mkt rate
47.8%
59.1%
45.5%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.19%, beat the market by 15.93 pts; win rate 50%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 45.86%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

56 historical occurrences (since 2010-12-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.8%, Sample 55, Median +1.45%, Excess +3.78%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 60.4%, Sample 53, Median +2%, Excess +7.4%, Beat mkt rate 66%；120-day: Win 55.8%, Sample 52, Median +1.79%, Excess +9.07%, Beat mkt rate 59.6%

120 days after: historical avg +6.91%

20-day +3.67%
60-day +7.29%
120-day +6.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.8%
60.4%
55.8%
Sample
55
53
52
Median
+1.45%
+2%
+1.79%
Excess
+3.78%
+7.4%
+9.07%
Beat mkt rate
60%
66%
59.6%

Over 52 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.91%, beat the market by 9.07 pts; win rate 55.8%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 7%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 historical occurrences (since 2012-08-16)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 47%, Sample 66, Median -0.22%, Excess -0.15%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 56.9%, Sample 65, Median +1.24%, Excess -0.65%, Beat mkt rate 41.5%；120-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 63, Median +0.95%, Excess -2.43%, Beat mkt rate 31.7%

120 days after: historical avg +4.34%

20-day +0.6%
60-day +3.4%
120-day +4.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47%
56.9%
52.4%
Sample
66
65
63
Median
-0.22%
+1.24%
+0.95%
Excess
-0.15%
-0.65%
-2.43%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
41.5%
31.7%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.34%, lagged the market by 2.43 pts; win rate 52.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 492+11.4% -2.6% 44.1% -19%
20-40 318-7.3% -10.5% 27% -31.3%
40-60 You are here516+20.2% -7.4% 17.4% +2%
60-80 492+9.1% +5.7% 67.5% -3.8%
80-100 976+48.3% +9.9% 81% +40.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.89, at the 59.2th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-17.6%
Win rate 7.3% Excess -22.8%
245d
Now
-3.2%
Win rate 39.8% Excess -10.1%
405d
+24.2%
Win rate 72.9% Excess +16.1%
1017d
60-day momentum down
+1.4%
Win rate 51.5% Excess -8.4%
522d
+9.3%
Win rate 64.2% Excess -1.6%
274d
+24.1%
Win rate 90% Excess +13.8%
451d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 405 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.2%, win rate 39.8%, lagged the market by 10.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 慧洋-KY do? Company profile

航運業；國際散裝航運、船舶租賃與船舶管理 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

2637 對應證券為慧洋-KY，為在臺第一上市之外國企業普通股，註冊地為開曼群島，母公司慧洋海運股份有限公司成立於 2008 年 10 月 21 日，2010 年 12 月 1 日於臺灣證券交易所上市；主要營運主體 Wisdom Marine Lines S.A.（慧洋海運巴拿馬）自 1999 年 3 月 15 日起經營國際航運。公司中文全名為慧洋海運股份有限公司，英文名 Wisdom Marine Lines Co., Limited，英文簡稱 WISDOM。董事長為藍俊昇，總經理職務由藍俊昇暫代；發言人為財務長薛亦駿。公司登記地址為 Windward 3, Regatta Office Park, PO Box 1350, Grand Cayman KY1；臺灣通訊/營運據點位於臺北市復興南路二段 237 號 7 樓 711 室，總機 02-2755-2637。實收資本額約新台幣 7,464,091,990 元，已發行普通股 746,409,199 股，無特別股。2024 年底主要股東包括藍俊昇 25.69%、群益台灣精選高息 ETF 基金專戶 7.44%、百世多麗股份有限公司 7.04%。員工規模方面，2025 年岸勤人員 165 人，年報刊印日附近為 166 人；船員透過子公司及船員仲介聘用，2025 年報刊印日約 2,348 名船員，2024 永續報告揭露 2024 年底現役船員 2,520 人。2025 年底船隊 126 艘；2024 年底船隊曾為 134 艘，總載重約 650 萬噸。

Business

慧洋-KY 是專業國際散裝航運集團，核心業務為船舶出租、國際海上運輸、船舶管理維護與船務代理。商業模式以自有及管理散裝船舶出租予國際租家為主，租約包括長約、短約及指數連動租約；公司利用多元船型與分散租約到期日降低景氣循環波動。2025 年營收新台幣 168.96 億元，其中租金收入新台幣 166.58 億元、占 98.59%；船舶管理收入新台幣 0.235 億元、占 0.14%；其他收入新台幣 2.146 億元、占 1.27%。2024 年營收新台幣 203.71 億元，其中長約租金收入約新台幣 179.94 億元、短約租金收入約新台幣 21.39 億元，租金收入合計約占 98.83%。公司承運或間接服務的終端貨物主要為乾散貨大宗商品，例如鐵礦砂、煤炭、穀物、鋁土礦、鋼材、礦砂及其他原物料；收入按客戶所在地歸類，2024 年外部客戶收入以新加坡 49%、荷蘭 19%、丹麥 9%、巴拿馬 8%、瑞士 4%、德國 2%、其他 9% 為主。主要客戶在財報中以 A、B、C 匿名揭露，2024 年均為單一外部客戶收入占比達 10% 以上者；永續報告另說明長期客戶為財務體質良好的世界級航運公司與商品交易商，並與數家日本及歐洲租船人維持長期合作。船隊策略偏向中小型散裝船與節能船，船型涵蓋 Handysize、Small Handysize、Supramax、Ultramax、Kamsarmax、Capesize 等，近年持續汰舊換新以提升燃油效率、合規能力與租金溢價。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：公司年報揭露 2025 年上半年散裝市況疲弱、下半年逐步復甦，全年營收 5.42 億美元、年減 14.6%，營業利益 1.295 億美元、營益率 23.9%；全年新增 1 艘新造船、出售 10 艘舊船、增加 1 艘代管船，船隊淨減 8 艘至 126 艘，並認列售船非營業損益約 4,400 萬美元，負債比由 42.6% 降至 40.7%。2026 年：公司計畫接收 8 艘新造 Handysize 節能散裝船，均符合 Tier III NOx 排放標準，建造船廠包含日本名村、常石、今治、尾道，預期分批交付；公司指出目前指數連動租約占比較高，節能船有助取得高於市場平均的租金溢價，並可搭配運價期貨及特定期間鎖定租家。2026 年 5 月公司自結單月合併營收新台幣 18.17 億元、年增 45.87%，營業利益率約 37%，前 5 月營收新台幣 78.02 億元、年增 27.42%，管理層對第二季大宗原物料出貨旺季、南美穀物及澳洲/印尼煤炭輸出保持樂觀。2027-2028 年：可見動能來自已下訂新船陸續交付、船隊汰舊換新、節能船比例提升、EEXI/CII、FuelEU Maritime、歐盟碳成本與未來 IMO 碳費等環保法規推動高效率船舶價值提升；若全球原物料貿易、南美穀物、鐵礦砂、鋁土礦、煤炭運輸需求維持，且地緣政治造成運距拉長，將支撐中小型散裝船需求。主要風險包括中國房地產與鋼鐵需求走弱、煤炭與穀物進口波動、全球新造船供給增加、BDI 與各船型日租金高度循環、美元/日圓/瑞郎匯率與利率波動、船舶融資成本、燃油與保險成本雖多由租家負擔但仍影響租船市場、紅海/中東/俄烏等區域安全風險、環保法規與替代燃料不確定性、售船利益不可持續，以及主要客戶集中度風險。2027-2028 的交付節奏與市況屬推估，需以後續公司公告與年報更新。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 名村造船所（Namura Shipbuilding） 日本造船廠；公司 2025 年報揭露 2026 年預計交付的新造 Handysize 節能船包含名村建造，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 常石造船（Tsuneishi Shipbuilding） 日本造船廠；公司 2025 年報揭露 2026 年新船包含常石建造，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 今治造船（Imabari Shipbuilding） 日本造船廠；公司 2025 年報揭露 2026 年新船包含今治建造，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 尾道造船（Onomichi Dockyard） 日本造船廠；公司 2025 年報揭露 2026 年新船包含尾道建造，非台股掛牌公司。
  • ABS、BV、DNV、NK 船級社 船舶建造、檢驗、證書與適航認證合作單位；均非台股掛牌公司。
  • 燃油、潤滑油與船用品供應商 營運耗材與船用品上游；永續報告說明潤滑油與 4 至 5 家國際供應商長期合作，燃油透過燃油經紀商或各港口供應商採購，未揭露具名公司。
  • 船員仲介、外部船舶管理與修船廠 提供船員招募、船舶維修、塢修與外部管理支援；公司未逐一揭露具名供應商，多為非台股或未揭露是否掛牌。
Downstream
  • 日本與歐洲租船人 主要下游客戶類型；永續報告揭露公司與數家信譽良好的日本及歐洲租船人長期合作，但未揭露具名公司。
  • 世界級航運公司與商品交易商 主要下游客戶類型；承租船舶運輸鐵礦砂、煤炭、穀物、鋁土礦、鋼材等乾散貨，年報與永續報告未揭露具名公司。
  • A 客戶、B 客戶、C 客戶 2024 年單一外部客戶收入占總營收 10% 以上者，財報以匿名方式揭露，故無法確認是否為上市公司或台股代號。

Competitors

  • 益航 2601 台股上市航運公司，具散裝航運與航運投資業務，為台灣散裝航運同業。
  • 新興 2605 台股上市航運公司，散裝船與油輪相關業務，為台灣散裝航運同業。
  • 裕民 2606 台股上市散裝航運公司，船隊規模與國際大宗原物料運輸業務與慧洋-KY 競爭。
  • 中航 2612 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運同業。
  • 台航 2617 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運同業。
  • 四維航 5608 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運同業。
  • 正德 2641 台股上櫃航運公司，經營散裝船與船舶租賃相關業務。
  • 光明海運 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運相關同業。
  • 達和航運 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運相關同業。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.