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2745

五福 Tourism & Hospitality As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 五福 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 69Quality 73Growth 67Momentum 44Chips 83

Is 五福 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 49th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 11.2%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 24th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.26
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 富邦-宜蘭 holds 350 lots
  • sellers have 194 lots left, ~93 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦-宜蘭 has accumulated 350 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新光 peaked at 84 lots, has sold 57%, 36 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.06pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.04pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -423 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦-宜蘭第一金-中壢永豐金-羅東華南永昌-斗六富邦-羅東港商野村
Distributing
新光元大-成功永豐金-松山高橋-龍潭群益金鼎-東門台新-建北
Desks
own scale
香港上海匯豐美林凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦-宜蘭 +350
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金-中壢 +132
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-羅東 +118
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-斗六 +80
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-羅東 +77
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +76
    sold 19%· still adding

Distributing

  • 新光 36 left
    sold 57%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 元大-成功 28 left
    sold 42%· ~93 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-松山 19 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 高橋-龍潭 18 left
    sold 53%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-東門 23 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 台新-建北 9 left
    sold 73%· paused recently

Desks

  • 香港上海匯豐 -187
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -116
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -104
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -98
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 194 lots ~93 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,042 absorbed / -188 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -253 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.53%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

42 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-16)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 38, Median -0.5%, Excess +2.36%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 38, Median +0.75%, Excess +8.43%, Beat mkt rate 39.5%；120-day: Win 62.2%, Sample 37, Median +11.48%, Excess +10.54%, Beat mkt rate 54.1%

120 days after: historical avg +23.29%

20-day +3.87%
60-day +13.69%
120-day +23.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
50%
62.2%
Sample
38
38
37
Median
-0.5%
+0.75%
+11.48%
Excess
+2.36%
+8.43%
+10.54%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
39.5%
54.1%

Over 37 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.29%, beat the market by 10.54 pts; win rate 62.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 227+15.3% +14.7% 93.8% -12.2%
20-40 You are here37-12% -14.4% 5.4% -113.1%
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.79, at the 24.0th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+1.6%
Win rate 38% Excess -13.3%
213d
Insufficient data
(11d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+8.4%
Win rate 62% Excess -11.6%
137d
Insufficient data
(23d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 213 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.6%, win rate 38%, lagged the market by 13.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.77%, win rate 22.2%, beating the market by -2.31 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.28%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -3.14 pts on average.

What does 五福 do? Company profile

觀光餐旅／綜合旅行社 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

2745 對應五福旅行社股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立日依公開基本資料與年報為 1988/08/22，公開發行 2015/07/17，興櫃 2015/09/14，上櫃 2018/04/16；總部位於高雄市三民區博愛一路 28 號 2、3 樓。實收資本額約新台幣 338,085,260 元，普通股約 33,808,526 股，每股面額 10 元。董事長為許順富；總經理依公開基本資料與 115 年年報註記為王哲彥，且年報註明許順富於 2025/01/01 卸任總經理。115 年 4 月 17 日止員工合計 582 人，其中經理級 29 人、一般人員 553 人。公司全台有總公司、分公司與門市營業據點，法說資料列示 14 個營業據點，觀光署資料另列多個分公司。主要股東依 115 年 4 月 17 日前十大股東關係表：義洲投資股份有限公司 25.51%、許順富本人持股 9.79%且配偶及關係企業合計持股較高、舜程投資有限公司 6.64%、舜祥投資有限公司 6.60%、陳珮璘 3.04%、許智傑 1.06%、劉銀來 0.74%、兆豐證券 0.72%、徐寶珠 0.62%、陳世雄 0.55%。公司屬綜合旅行業，交通部觀光署旅行業資料列示類別為「綜合」，品保會員，是出境旅遊、國內旅遊、票務與旅遊服務供應商。

Business

五福主要業務為國內外旅遊規劃、團體行程操作、自由行商品開發、票務與簽證代理、主題活動承辦、會議會展與商務差旅服務，提供一站式旅遊解決方案。服務對象包含一般散客、旅行社同業、企業客戶、學術單位、公協會、政府機關與學校。依 114 年度年報，2025 年營收新台幣 87.60096 億元，其中團體旅遊 86.90755 億元、占 99.21%，其他收入 0.69341 億元、占 0.79%；其他包含票務、自由行與佣金收入。銷售地區以外銷為主，114 年度外銷 85.97513 億元、占 98.14%，內銷 1.62583 億元、占 1.86%。核心商業模式是以航空機位、飯店、地接、景點、交通、郵輪等旅遊元件採購與包裝能力，結合自營產品設計、包機／包船、同業通路、直客門市、官網、平台電商與企業客戶銷售。產品涵蓋國外團體旅遊、國內旅遊與入境操作、自由行與旅遊元件、客製化包團、會議與商務差旅、票務與簽證代辦；目的地以日本、韓國、東南亞、歐洲、美加、紐澳、非洲、中東、郵輪與主題旅遊為主。公司法說列出 B2C、B2B、B2E 通路布局，並強調與航空公司、地接社、飯店、景點單位及交通公司建立長期合作，透過會員數據、CRM、ERP、官網 UI/UX、API 串接與動態庫存管理提升成行率與毛利。公司最近兩個會計年度並無單一客戶銷貨占比超過 10%；主要進貨項目以機票為主，主要供應商為國籍航空，年報以匿名「A 航空」揭露單一供應商進貨占 2025 年進貨淨額 13.24%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司受惠出境旅遊復甦、日韓與東南亞需求、郵輪與主題行程成長，全年營收 87.60096 億元，較 2024 年 76.58692 億元成長約 14.38%，創高；2026 年前 5 月公開月營收累計約 42.67 億元、年增約 16.5%，顯示出境需求仍有延續性。2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能可分為：一、國人出境旅遊需求擴張與消費升級，旅遊支出由彈性消費轉向較剛性的生活型支出；二、日韓、東南亞、歐洲、郵輪、小包團、客製化與高端主題旅遊需求提升；三、公司深化航空與郵輪公司策略合作，取得穩定機位配額、票價彈性與包機專案，目標提升供應鏈主導性與毛利率；四、推動 ERP、CRM、會員紅利、AI 客戶關係管理、API 串接、官網改版、自動化報價、數位簽約、智慧客服與動態庫存預警，提升人均產值、轉換率與回購率；五、開發運動旅遊、IP 聯名、K-POP／賽事、節慶巡禮、文化深度遊、樂活健康、ESG 綠色旅遊與 Mini Tour 等高附加價值商品；六、拓展企業服務 B2E、企業獎勵旅遊、同業通路與平台合作。公司年報提到 115 年以「劍指百億」為核心目標，並稱未來三年國人出境旅遊市場可受惠於「需求擴張＋消費升級」。主要風險包括匯率波動、燃油與航空票價成本、航空運能與機位供給、地緣政治、極端天氣與旅遊安全事件、景氣轉弱造成高單價旅遊需求放緩、OTA 與同業價格競爭、人才招募與薪資成本上升、資安與個資保護、旅遊政策與簽證規則變化。2027 至 2028 年具體財務數字未見公司正式預測，因此僅能以公司揭露的未來三年趨勢與策略作方向性推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中華航空 2610 台股上市航空公司；年報列示國籍航空與中華航空為主要機票與航空機位供應來源之一，法說亦提及獲中華航空 Gold Award，屬核心航空供應鏈。
  • 長榮航空 2618 台股上市航空公司；年報列示長榮航空為主要航空供應來源之一，提供出境旅遊機位、票務與包裝行程所需運能。
  • 星宇航空 2646 台股上市航空公司；年報列示星宇航空為主要航空供應來源之一，提供出境旅遊機位與航網資源。
  • 國際航空運輸協會（IATA） 非台股掛牌組織；年報列為旅行業主要進貨廠商來源之一，與 BSP 航空票務及國際機票供應鏈相關。
  • 海外地接社、飯店、景點單位、交通公司 多數為未上市或海外業者；法說與年報指出公司與地接社、飯店、景點及交通公司建立長期合作，供應團體旅遊、客製包團與自由行元件。
  • 郵輪公司 多數非台股掛牌或海外業者；公司展望提到深化與國內外郵輪公司策略合作，發展包船與郵輪假期產品。
  • LINE Pay、銀行與資訊服務商 支付與資訊系統合作夥伴；年報提及與 LINE Pay、銀行、伯仲國際、是方電訊等合作串接支付、網路與資安服務，其中是方電訊為台股上櫃公司 6561，但年報未明示採購比重。
Downstream
  • 一般消費大眾 非掛牌主體；五福主要銷售對象之一，購買國內外團體旅遊、自由行、票務、簽證、票券與客製化旅遊服務。
  • 旅行社同業 多數為未上市中小旅行業者；公司 B2B 通路與二千多家旅遊同業合作，透過同業銷售產品並擴大出團規模。
  • 企業客戶 包含企業戶與 B2E／B2B2C 通路；購買員工旅遊、獎勵旅遊、商務會議、差旅與客製化包團服務，年報指出公司將深耕企業獎勵旅遊市場。
  • 學校、公協會、政府機關與學術單位 非掛牌主體；為畢業旅行、研習團、學術交流、專業考察、宗教巡禮及會議會展等客製行程客戶。
  • 平台電商與線上通路 多數未明示具體公司名稱；法說指出公司與平台合作拓展銷售通路，並以官網、社群、旅展、異業合作與 CRM 導流。

Competitors

  • 雄獅旅遊 2731 台股上市旅行社；年報明列為產品屬性、經營模式與規模接近的主要競爭者。
  • 鳳凰旅遊 5706 台股上櫃旅行社；年報明列為同級競爭者。
  • 台鋼燦星 2719 台股上櫃觀光旅遊相關公司；年報以燦星旅列為同級競爭者。
  • 山富旅遊 2743 台股上櫃旅行社；年報明列為同級競爭者。
  • 易飛網 2734 台股上櫃線上旅遊與旅行社業者；年報明列為同級競爭者。
  • 旅天下 6961 台股上櫃旅行社；年報明列為同級競爭者。
  • 非上市中型或專業型旅行業者 未上市或未公開發行業者；年報指出潛水、登山、攝影、長青慢遊、小眾國家、醫美健康、宗教文化等利基型旅行社亦是特定主題產品競爭者。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.