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2883

凱基金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 凱基金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 64Quality 85Growth 81Momentum 86Chips 1

Is 凱基金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 34th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 72th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -21.6% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 25.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.77
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 富邦證券 holds 265,652 lots
  • sellers have 138,654 lots left, ~138 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +67% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 265,652 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 202,329 lots, has sold 88%, 24,562 left, ~1 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.08pp, mid holders -229, retail -4.34pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -162,565 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券永豐金證券元大證券國泰證券港商麥格理香港上海匯豐
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通花旗環球台新-台北華南永昌永豐金-匯立
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛統一美林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +265,652
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +226,138
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +147,985
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +121,294
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +57,718
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +52,538
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 24,562 left
    sold 88%· ~1 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 17,539 left
    sold 84%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 40,119 left
    sold 53%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 台新-台北 30,718 left
    sold 59%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 20,215 left
    sold 30%· ~138 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 4,744 left
    sold 81%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -60,977
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -41,013
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一 -33,868
    unclassified
  • 美林 -25,547
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 138,654 lots ~138 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +791,777 absorbed / -313,105 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -133,310 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-12)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 48.6%, Sample 35, Median -1.4%, Excess +1.16%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%；60-day: Win 73.5%, Sample 34, Median +5.61%, Excess +3.74%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%；120-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 32, Median +8.5%, Excess +6.85%, Beat mkt rate 65.6%

120 days after: historical avg +6.99%

20-day +2.09%
60-day +5.54%
120-day +6.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.6%
73.5%
56.2%
Sample
35
34
32
Median
-1.4%
+5.61%
+8.5%
Excess
+1.16%
+3.74%
+6.85%
Beat mkt rate
54.3%
58.8%
65.6%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.99%, beat the market by 6.85 pts; win rate 56.2%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 25.21%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

111 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 97, Median +0.91%, Excess -0.47%, Beat mkt rate 40.2%；60-day: Win 66%, Sample 97, Median +3.32%, Excess -0.72%, Beat mkt rate 46.4%；120-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 96, Median +4.79%, Excess -1.45%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%

120 days after: historical avg +6.13%

20-day +0.22%
60-day +3.16%
120-day +6.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.8%
66%
61.5%
Sample
97
97
96
Median
+0.91%
+3.32%
+4.79%
Excess
-0.47%
-0.72%
-1.45%
Beat mkt rate
40.2%
46.4%
43.8%

Over 96 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.13%, lagged the market by 1.45 pts; win rate 61.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1095+8.7% -2.2% 45.8% -9.8%
20-40 734+10.4% +2.5% 60.2% +0.2%
40-60 649+17.9% +16.4% 83.1% +1.5%
60-80 You are here395+29.4% +29.5% 92.4% +9.1%
80-100 62+24.8% +24.5% 100% -11.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.97, at the 72.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.5%
Win rate 56.8% Excess +5.5%
1076d
+8.5%
Win rate 74.8% Excess -1.7%
682d
Now
+8.9%
Win rate 80.5% Excess +0.5%
169d
60-day momentum down
+1.8%
Win rate 48.7% Excess -10%
702d
+12.4%
Win rate 87.6% Excess -3.7%
314d
+4.2%
Win rate 65.2% Excess -5.4%
112d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 169 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.9%, win rate 80.5%, beat the market by 0.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

77 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.55%, win rate 68%, beating the market by -0.11 pts on average.

What does 凱基金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2883 對應凱基金融控股股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司前身為中華開發金融控股，成立與上市日期均為 2001-12-28，2024-10 正式由中華開發金控更名為凱基金控，英文名稱為 KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd.。總部位於臺北市松山區敦化北路 135 號；董事長王銘陽，總經理楊文鈞；官方投資人關係頁列示主要業務為壽險、銀行、證券、投信及私募股權／資產管理。實收資本額官方公司簡介列示 2024 年底約新臺幣 1,839 億元，Yahoo 股市於 2026-02-18 資料列示股本新臺幣 185,569,894,140 元、已發行普通股 16,974,847,040 股；差異主要來自後續資本變動與資料時點不同。主要股東依官方股東專區包含國泰世華商業銀行受託保管元大台灣高股息證券投資信託基金專戶 638,324,657 股、3.76%，興文投資 485,054,807 股、2.86%，景冠投資 433,907,311 股、2.56%，新制勞工退休基金 336,744,877 股、1.98%，中國信託商業銀行受託保管元大台灣卓越50證券投資信託基金專戶 307,298,583 股、1.81%，臺灣銀行 289,810,539 股、1.71% 等，顯示股權相當分散。官方公司簡介揭露信用評等：凱基金控中華信評 twAA-/twA-1+、標普 BBB/A-2，展望穩定。2025 年報描述旗下核心為凱基人壽、凱基銀行、凱基證券、凱基投信與中華開發資本五大事業。

Business

凱基金控為綜合型金融控股公司，商業模式是以金控母公司持股與資本配置整合子公司，透過保險、銀行、證券、投信、私募股權／資產管理等子公司銷售金融商品、承作授信與投資、收取利息淨收益、保險服務與投資收益、經紀與承銷手續費、財富管理手續費、資產管理費及私募投資收益。2025 年合併稅後淨利約新臺幣 300.56 億元，EPS 1.74 元；公司稱若排除外匯價格變動準備金與一次性因素，年度獲利創歷史新高。子公司表現方面，凱基人壽 2025 年稅後淨利約 158 億元，新契約保費 773 億元、年增 33%，總保費 1,930 億元、年增 11%，新契約保費市占率 7.67%，聚焦外幣、保障型、投資型商品並累積 CSM；凱基銀行 2025 年稅後獲利約 68 億元創高，業務支柱為個人金融、法人金融與金融市場，財富管理手續費較 2024 年成長 24%，法人金融授信餘額約 3,518 億元、存款餘額約 3,669 億元，並布局香港分行、財管 2.0、虛擬資產保管試辦與跨境金融；凱基證券 2025 年稅後獲利約 115 億元，國內經紀市占率 11.18% 居同業第二，外資法人經紀市占率 18% 居國內同業第一，資本市場主辦承銷 36 件、承銷總金額 314 億元，權證與結構型商品亦具領先地位；中華開發資本聚焦直接投資、私募股權與資產管理，2025 年新增約 94.5 億元資產管理規模，年底累計承諾投資規模約 764.7 億元，投資主題包含台灣產業升級、全球供應鏈重組、AI、能源轉型、大健康及跨境私募；凱基投信 2025 年底資產管理規模約 3,140 億元，其中公募基金 3,119 億元、ETF 2,876 億元，持續發展 ETF、主動基金、退休與多資產產品。客戶與終端應用涵蓋個人保戶、存款戶、貸款戶、投資人、高資產客戶、法人企業、上市櫃籌資客戶、機構投資人、私募投資人及新創／成長型企業。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能來自：一、ONE KGI 跨子公司共同行銷，透過壽險、銀行、證券、投信與開發資本共用客群、通路與商品，提高單一客戶資產滲透率與收益貢獻；二、財富管理與高資產業務，銀行與證券皆已取得或推進 WM2.0 相關資格與產品，銀行推出金融資產組合融資與保費融資，證券提供私募股權共同投資產品，並與人壽、投信、開發資本合作打造一站式資產配置；三、壽險新制轉型，2026 年起接軌 IFRS 17 與 TW-ICS，凱基人壽以外幣、保障型、投資型商品提升新契約 CSM，並透過資產負債管理、外匯價格變動準備金與投資組合調整降低財務波動；四、證券與投信受惠台股 ETF、AI 供應鏈資本市場、複委託、結構型商品與資產管理需求；五、開發資本受惠亞洲資產管理中心政策、私募股權、基礎建設、醫療保健、AI、淨零與台灣供應鏈升級題材，目標提升資產管理規模與穩定管理費收入；六、數位金融、AI 與虛擬資產保管試辦，銀行、證券、人壽導入 AI 防詐、AI 投研、智能客服、線上貸款與行動服務，可能提升營運效率與獲客能力。主要風險與挑戰包括：利率與匯率波動影響壽險淨值、避險成本及 CSM 釋放；IFRS 17／TW-ICS 接軌後獲利與資本指標仍有不確定性；美國關稅政策、地緣政治、通膨與降息節奏可能加劇資本市場波動；銀行須關注傳產與出口客戶信用風險、放款成長與淨利差；證券業高度受台股成交量、ETF 熱度、承銷市場與自營投資波動影響；資產管理與財富管理競爭激烈，且高資產、私募與虛擬資產業務須面對監理、適合度、資安與反詐風險。2027-2028 年未見公司發布明確量化財測，以上為依官方 2025 年報、2026Q1 法說與產業趨勢做出的中期推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 保戶、存款戶、投資人與資本市場資金提供者 金融業無傳統製造上游；凱基金控的資金來源主要來自保費、存款、股東權益、公司債、金融市場拆借與投資人委託資產。多數為自然人、法人與市場資金，非單一台股掛牌公司。
  • 台灣證券交易所 凱基證券經紀、承銷、ETF 與資本市場業務的重要市場基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 中華民國證券櫃檯買賣中心 凱基證券債券、興櫃、上櫃、ETF 與衍生商品相關市場基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 再保險公司 凱基人壽為分散承保風險會透過再保險移轉部分風險；年報未逐一列示主要再保險交易對手，故不填具體公司。
  • Tether 凱基銀行年報揭露與全球美元穩定幣發行商 Tether 簽署合作備忘錄，推動跨境金融及虛擬資產應用；非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 個人金融與高資產客戶 保險、銀行、證券、投信與私募產品的主要終端客群，包含保戶、存款戶、貸款戶、投資人與高資產財富管理客戶；非單一公司。
  • 法人企業與機構投資人 銀行授信、國際聯貸、證券承銷、債券承銷、複委託、資產管理與私募投資服務對象；包含台灣與海外法人，未能對應單一台股代號。
  • Techcom Securities 凱基銀行 2025 年主辦越南 Techcom Securities 1.75 億美元聯貸案，為海外法人金融客戶；越南證券公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 新創與成長型企業／私募投資戶 中華開發資本投資與資產管理服務對象，年報稱累積超過 1,000 家投資戶，投資區域涵蓋台灣、大陸、北美等；多數非台股上市櫃公司或未逐一揭露。

Competitors

  • 富邦金控 2881 大型金融控股公司，銀行、壽險、證券、投信與海外布局完整，為凱基金控在金控、財管、壽險與證券業務的主要同業。
  • 國泰金控 2882 大型壽險型金控，具國泰人壽、國泰世華銀行、國泰證券與國泰投信，為壽險、銀行與財富管理主要競爭者。
  • 中信金控 2891 銀行與壽險雙核心金控，財富管理、法人金融、信用卡與海外網絡強，與凱基銀行及金控財管業務競爭。
  • 元大金控 2885 證券與投信 ETF 領域龍頭型金控，與凱基證券經紀、承銷、財管、ETF 與資產管理業務高度競爭。
  • 玉山金控 2884 銀行型金控，財富管理、個金、企金與數位金融能力強，為凱基銀行與金控高資產業務競爭者。
  • 兆豐金控 2886 公股銀行型金控，外匯、企金、海外分行與法人金融強，與凱基銀行法人金融及跨境金融業務競爭。
  • 永豐金控 2890 銀行與證券雙核心金控，近年整併京城銀行並擴大財管、數位金融與證券業務，為凱基金控同業。
  • 台新新光金控 2887 台新金與新光金於 2025 年完成合併後形成銀行與壽險並重的金控，為凱基金控在銀行、壽險與財管市場的競爭者。
  • 華南金控 2880 公股銀行型金控，於企金、存放款、財富管理與證券投信業務與凱基金控部分重疊。
  • 第一金控 2892 公股銀行型金控，法人金融、存放款、財富管理與證券相關業務構成同業競爭。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.