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2884

玉山金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 玉山金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 62Quality 86Growth 69Momentum 61Chips 93

Is 玉山金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 31th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 48th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 12.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.67
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 171,609 lots
  • sellers have 33,212 lots left, ~21 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 171,609 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 48,097 lots, has sold 32%, 32,619 left, ~21 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.13pp, mid holders +5, retail -1.19pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -23,168 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛台新-建北摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀元大-新盛玉山證券
Distributing
凱基-台北美林港商野村玉山-新竹華南永昌-東昇玉山-城中
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利群益金鼎富邦證券凱基
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +171,609
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-建北 +141,225
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +121,599
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +62,574
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-新盛 +49,573
    sold 0%
  • 玉山證券 +38,880
    sold 22%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 32,619 left
    sold 32%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 美林 14,792 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 14,724 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 玉山-新竹 1,279 left
    sold 55%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-東昇 430 left
    sold 77%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 玉山-城中 163 left
    sold 89%· ~1 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -100,341
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎 -39,292
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -36,423
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -35,819
    unclassified
Still selling 33,212 lots ~21 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +143,250 absorbed / -17,371 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -10,093 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

43 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-16)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 59.5%, Sample 42, Median +2.32%, Excess +1.84%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%；60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 42, Median +3.04%, Excess +1.09%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%；120-day: Win 75.6%, Sample 41, Median +5.43%, Excess +3.25%, Beat mkt rate 68.3%

120 days after: historical avg +7.37%

20-day +0.96%
60-day +2.71%
120-day +7.37%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.5%
71.4%
75.6%
Sample
42
42
41
Median
+2.32%
+3.04%
+5.43%
Excess
+1.84%
+1.09%
+3.25%
Beat mkt rate
64.3%
61.9%
68.3%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.37%, beat the market by 3.25 pts; win rate 75.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.75%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

76 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52%, Sample 75, Median +0.26%, Excess -0.58%, Beat mkt rate 42.7%；60-day: Win 60.8%, Sample 74, Median +1.22%, Excess -1.24%, Beat mkt rate 44.6%；120-day: Win 69.9%, Sample 73, Median +6.87%, Excess -0.21%, Beat mkt rate 54.8%

120 days after: historical avg +5.79%

20-day +0.25%
60-day +2.23%
120-day +5.79%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52%
60.8%
69.9%
Sample
75
74
73
Median
+0.26%
+1.22%
+6.87%
Excess
-0.58%
-1.24%
-0.21%
Beat mkt rate
42.7%
44.6%
54.8%

Over 73 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.79%, lagged the market by 0.21 pts; win rate 69.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 676+13.4% +13.3% 99.9% -1.9%
20-40 379+14.4% +12.8% 90.5% +8.9%
40-60 You are here437+23.7% +24.7% 90.6% +6.2%
60-80 825+16.4% +16.5% 91% -7.8%
80-100 718+8.3% +11.4% 67.5% -5.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.14, at the 48.3th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.3%
Win rate 73.3% Excess -0.8%
664d
Now
+9.9%
Win rate 87.9% Excess +4.7%
593d
+5.5%
Win rate 71.8% Excess -1.6%
1018d
60-day momentum down
+10%
Win rate 86.4% Excess +2.4%
316d
+14.3%
Win rate 92.9% Excess -8.2%
224d
+5.7%
Win rate 76.1% Excess -8%
339d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 593 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.9%, win rate 87.9%, beat the market by 4.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

72 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.02%, win rate 65.7%, beating the market by +0.85 pts on average.

What does 玉山金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2884 對應證券為玉山金控上市普通股。玉山金融控股股份有限公司成立與上市日期均為 2002-01-28，總部位於台北市松山區民生東路3段115號1樓及117號14樓；核心子公司玉山銀行創立於1992年。官方揭露實收資本額為新台幣161,740,000,000元，董事長為黃男州，總經理為陳茂欽。2025年年報列示金控及子公司截至2026-01-31員工人數9,842人，2025年全年員工人數9,777人。主要子公司包括玉山銀行、玉山證券、玉山創投、玉山投信；玉山銀行另持有玉山銀行中國、柬埔寨聯合商業銀行、金財通商務科技服務等。2025-12-31持股達1%以上股東包括玉山商業銀行受託信託財產專戶4.64%、榮淵投資4.34%、匯豐台灣託管摩根士丹利國際有限公司投資專戶3.14%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶2.32%、元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶1.73%、元大台灣卓越50 ETF專戶1.58%、先進星光總合國際股票指數基金專戶1.38%、新制勞工退休基金1.30%、梵加德新興市場股票指數基金專戶1.28%、挪威中央銀行投資專戶1.17%、新加坡政府投資專戶1.17%、信康投資1.00%、舊制勞工退休基金1.00%。

Business

玉山金控本體以管理及投資金融相關事業為主，投資範圍涵蓋銀行、信用卡、信託、保險、證券、期貨、創投及主管機關認定之金融相關事業。主要營運由玉山銀行貢獻，業務包括存放款、聯貸、匯兌、保證、信用卡、外匯、外幣存放款、投資與理財、信託、財富管理、衍生性金融商品、電子支付與企業財務諮詢等；玉山證券提供國內外證券經紀、期貨選擇權、信用交易、承銷、興櫃登錄、IPO/上櫃輔導、併購財務顧問、自營與OSU業務；玉山創投投資未上市櫃及興櫃企業並提供管理與產業諮詢；玉山投信提供投信基金募集、全權委託與投顧業務。2025年金控合併營業比重依年報表列為利息收入新台幣107,496,725仟元、65.68%，手續費收入36,945,410仟元、22.57%，其他淨收益19,232,321仟元、11.75%；同年金控淨收益917.10億元、稅後盈餘343.42億元、EPS 2.12元、ROA 0.80%、ROE 13.05%，玉山銀行稅後盈餘327.86億元，玉山證券26.1億元，玉山創投1.2億元，玉山投信7月加入後挹注0.92億元。終端客群包括個人金融、信用卡與數位金融客戶、財富管理與私人銀行高資產客戶、中小企業、大型企業、海外台商、證券投資人、基金投資人及創投被投資企業。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年玉山金在AI與半導體帶動台灣出口、民間投資與財富管理需求增溫的環境下，淨收益與稅後盈餘創新高，銀行總資產達4兆4,667億元、總存款3兆7,784億元、總放款2兆6,302億元，財富管理淨手續費收入154.20億元、年增14.15%，逾放比0.15%、放款覆蓋率826.42%。2026年官方展望重點為金控2.0與整合：一是併購三商美邦人壽若獲主管機關核准並完成交割，將補齊壽險版圖，使銀、保、證成為三大獲利引擎，資產規模預期突破6兆元；二是2025年收購保德信投信並更名玉山投信後，配合亞洲資產管理中心政策，資產管理與銀行財富管理、私人銀行業務可望形成交叉銷售；三是擴大北美與亞洲據點，深化海外台商與法人金融服務；四是數位轉型、資料治理、雲端與AI賦能，例如AI房貸顧問、投資i-chat等生成式AI服務。2027至2028屬推估：若壽險整併順利，成長動能將來自保險CSM產品、銀行通路銷售、資產負債管理改善、財富管理與投信產品擴張、海外分行網絡擴大、證券承銷與經紀市占率提升；但整併期間亦會面臨壽險資本適足、IFRS 17與ICS 2.0接軌、利率與匯率波動、台股與美股評價波動、海外授信風險、AI/半導體景氣循環、傳產客戶受中國低價競爭與關稅政策影響、資安與法遵成本上升等挑戰。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與法人資金供給者 金融業主要資金來源之一，包含個人、企業、機構與外幣存款客戶；非單一掛牌公司。
  • 資本市場投資人與債券投資人 提供股權與公司債資金，玉山金年報列示有多期無擔保公司債；非單一企業。
  • 中央銀行與金融同業市場 影響資金成本、流動性與利率環境，並為銀行同業拆借與支付清算環境的重要上游條件；非公司。
  • 勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所 2025年年報列示之簽證會計師事務所，提供審計服務；未上市。
  • Moody's Investors Service Inc. 年報列示之信用評等機構，屬海外評等機構，非台股掛牌。
  • S&P Global Ratings 年報列示之信用評等機構，母公司為美國上市公司S&P Global Inc.，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 玉山商業銀行股份有限公司 玉山金核心銀行子公司，承接個人金融、企業金融、外匯、信用卡、財富管理與信託等業務；未上市。
  • 玉山綜合證券股份有限公司 證券子公司，提供經紀、承銷、自營、OSU與財務顧問服務；未上市。
  • 玉山創業投資股份有限公司 創投子公司，投資未上市櫃及興櫃企業並提供管理與產業諮詢；未上市。
  • 玉山證券投資信託股份有限公司 2025年由保德信投信更名而來，提供投信基金、全權委託與投顧業務；未上市。
  • 三商美邦人壽保險股份有限公司 2867 玉山金已通過以股份轉換方式取得100%股權之合意併購案；截至2026-06-17仍以主管機關核准與交割進度為關鍵，完成後將成為保險業務引擎。
  • 個人、企業、財富管理與海外台商客戶 玉山金各子公司金融服務的終端客戶群，包含零售金融、中小企業、大型企業、高資產客戶與跨境客戶；非單一公司。

Competitors

Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.