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2885

元大金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 元大金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 52Quality 89Growth 90Momentum 87Chips 94

Is 元大金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~100% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 46th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 84th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 14.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 52.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 凱基 holds 64,655 lots
  • sellers have 1,700 lots left, ~23 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +57% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基 has accumulated 64,655 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 24,889 lots, has sold 67%, 8,284 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.03pp, mid holders +25, retail +0.03pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -69,987 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基中國信託-文心摩根大通元大證券港商麥格理港商野村
Distributing
永豐金證券群益金鼎康和第一金元大-成功永豐金-內湖
Desks
own scale
花旗環球美商高盛國泰證券統一
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基 +64,655
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 中國信託-文心 +59,856
    sold 0%
  • 摩根大通 +51,824
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +36,395
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +12,174
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +11,811
    sold 10%· still adding

Distributing

  • 永豐金證券 8,284 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎 9,783 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 康和 1,288 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 第一金 1,050 left
    sold 54%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 元大-成功 735 left
    sold 37%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-內湖 461 left
    sold 56%· paused recently

Desks

  • 花旗環球 -62,776
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -28,493
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰證券 -26,709
    unclassified
  • 統一 -25,762
    unclassified
Still selling 1,700 lots ~23 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +26,437 absorbed / -1,697 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -58,896 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

42 historical occurrences (since 2011-01-06)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 54.8%, Sample 42, Median +0.97%, Excess +0.21%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；60-day: Win 58.5%, Sample 41, Median +2.84%, Excess +0.08%, Beat mkt rate 48.8%；120-day: Win 56.1%, Sample 41, Median +5.84%, Excess -0.55%, Beat mkt rate 43.9%

120 days after: historical avg +4.59%

20-day +0.54%
60-day +0.77%
120-day +4.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.8%
58.5%
56.1%
Sample
42
41
41
Median
+0.97%
+2.84%
+5.84%
Excess
+0.21%
+0.08%
-0.55%
Beat mkt rate
52.4%
48.8%
43.9%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.59%, lagged the market by 0.55 pts; win rate 56.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 52.06%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

107 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 64.4%, Sample 101, Median +1.26%, Excess +0.18%, Beat mkt rate 43.6%；60-day: Win 61.4%, Sample 101, Median +3.13%, Excess +0.76%, Beat mkt rate 47.5%；120-day: Win 60.2%, Sample 98, Median +5.23%, Excess +0.32%, Beat mkt rate 48%

120 days after: historical avg +5.29%

20-day +1.27%
60-day +3.95%
120-day +5.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64.4%
61.4%
60.2%
Sample
101
101
98
Median
+1.26%
+3.13%
+5.23%
Excess
+0.18%
+0.76%
+0.32%
Beat mkt rate
43.6%
47.5%
48%

Over 98 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.29%, beat the market by 0.32 pts; win rate 60.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 808+11% +11.7% 55.3% +3.2%
20-40 758+13.3% +14.5% 72.3% +1.7%
40-60 836+18.1% +13.4% 86.1% -6%
60-80 552+24.6% +25.3% 97.1% 0%
80-100 You are here88+9.6% +9% 95.5% -5.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 20.52, at the 84.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+3.1%
Win rate 57.5% Excess +1.8%
709d
+11%
Win rate 79.5% Excess -1.6%
1129d
Now
+9.6%
Win rate 73.4% Excess +1.1%
448d
60-day momentum down
+7.5%
Win rate 75.8% Excess +0.6%
532d
+9.5%
Win rate 88.2% Excess -3.7%
297d
+7.1%
Win rate 80.9% Excess +3.8%
47d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 448 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.6%, win rate 73.4%, beat the market by 1.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

68 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.14%, win rate 75.8%, beating the market by +0.45 pts on average.

What does 元大金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2885 對應元大金融控股股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立與上市日期均為 2002年2月4日，2007年由元大京華證券與復華金控合併後更名為元大金控。總部位於臺北市大安區仁愛路三段157號多樓層。官方基本資料更新日 2026年2月4日顯示，股票代號 2885，實收資本額新台幣 133,311,499,460 元，面額新台幣10元；2025年12月31日官方資料列示實收資本額 133,311 百萬元、單家股東權益 340,417 百萬元、單家稅後淨利 36,521 百萬元、EPS 2.74元、ROE 11.16%、員工總人數 15,548人。董事長為翁健，總經理為黃維誠；年報註記翁健於 2025年6月13日獲選任董事長，黃維誠於 2025年7月16日正式就任總經理。年報揭露已發行股份總額 13,331,149,946 股；主要法人股東資訊中可見尊爵投資、現代投資等法人股東及其主要股東結構，惟此處未逐項列示前十大股東完整排序。集團成員包括元大證券、元大銀行、元大人壽、元大期貨、元大投信、元大證金、元大投顧、元大創投、元大國際資產與韓國元大儲蓄銀行等。

Business

元大金控是以投資及管理金融相關事業為核心的金控公司，營運模式由早期證券投資服務主軸，逐步轉為證券、銀行並重，並形成證券、銀行、人壽、投信、期貨五大獲利引擎。主要服務包括證券經紀、自營、承銷與投資銀行、財富管理、銀行存放款與企業金融、私人銀行、壽險商品、投信基金與 ETF、期貨與選擇權經紀、證券金融、投資顧問、創投與資產管理。2025年年報指出：元大證券 2025年稅後獲利 244.21億元、年增15.4%，經紀業務累計市占率 13.83%，截至2025年底有148家分公司及經紀部；元大銀行稅後獲利 106.68億元、年增6.5%，年底總資產突破2.3兆元，成長來自放款量增加、利差擴大與財富管理商品銷售；元大人壽 2025年因匯兌損失、避險成本及業務擴張費用而虧損 14.09億元，但初年度保費收入年增298%；元大期貨稅後獲利 26.55億元、年增22.5%，國內期貨經紀市占率22.80%、選擇權經紀市占率13.09%、國外期貨市占率24.06%；元大投信稅後淨利 41.82億元、年增5.9%，年底管理資產規模 2兆9,721億元，其中元大台灣50 ETF 規模於2025年首度突破兆元。主要客戶涵蓋個人投資人、高資產客戶、企業金融客戶、機構法人、ETF與基金受益人、期貨交易客戶及保戶；終端應用是資本市場交易、財富管理、企業籌資、資產配置、保險保障、退休理財與跨境金融服務。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年的核心展望可歸納為：第一，台股成交量、AI 供應鏈資本市場活動與 ETF 滲透率提升，將持續支撐證券、投信與期貨業務，但獲利高度受股市成交量與評價波動影響。第二，銀行業務以存放款、外幣放款、財富管理、私人銀行與亞洲資產管理中心試辦業務為成長重點，若利率環境轉向寬鬆，外幣資金成本可能改善，但存放結構、利差與資產品質仍是關鍵。第三，壽險事業將面對 IFRS 17 與 ICS 2.0 接軌，元大人壽已完成系統建置與平行結帳，2025年底 RBC 資本適足率 376.43%、淨值比率 7.37%，資本水準尚屬強健；惟匯率、避險成本、CSM 與資本效率仍是未來挑戰。第四，元大期貨將以核心經紀、市占率、IT 基礎建設、全球交易平台、香港與新加坡資源整合、東南亞客戶開發為成長方向。第五，元大投信將受惠於 ETF、主被動基金、定期定額、退休理財與多元資產配置需求，並持續推出股票、債券、商品、外匯、槓桿反向與主動式產品。第六，海外布局包括韓國、香港、新加坡與東南亞市場，2025年元大金已完成向元大銀行承購韓國元大儲蓄銀行 100%股權，使其成為海外直屬公司，有利深化韓國市場與跨境整合。主要風險包括全球經貿政策不確定性、地緣政治、股債匯波動、台股成交量下滑、銀行信用成本上升、壽險匯率與新制資本壓力、資安與詐騙風險、金融監理變化、同業價格競爭與金融科技替代。2027至2028較屬推估，合理推論元大金將延續「聚焦臺灣資本市場、拓展海外獲利引擎、穩健獲利、風險控管、永續發展」策略，但具體財務目標未由官方公開完整揭露。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣證券交易所 證券交易、上市制度、交易資訊與市場基礎設施提供者；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 財團法人中華民國證券櫃檯買賣中心 上櫃、興櫃、債券與店頭市場基礎設施提供者；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣期貨交易所 元大期貨相關期貨與選擇權交易市場基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 臺灣集中保管結算所 證券集中保管、帳簿劃撥與結算交割基礎設施；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 存款戶、投資人、保戶與金融同業資金市場 提供銀行存款、保險保費、證券交易資金、保證金與金融市場流動性；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 資誠聯合會計師事務所 簽證會計師事務所，年報與官方基本資料列示為簽證機構；未上市。
Downstream
  • 元大證券股份有限公司 元大金控主要子公司與證券業務平台，服務個人投資人、法人、企業籌資與財富管理客戶；未上市櫃。
  • 元大商業銀行股份有限公司 元大金控銀行業務平台，服務存款戶、房貸與信貸客戶、企業金融、私人銀行與財富管理客戶；公開發行但非上市櫃。
  • 元大人壽保險股份有限公司 元大金控壽險平台，服務保戶與退休保障、投資型及傳統型保險需求；未上市櫃。
  • 元大期貨股份有限公司 6023 元大金控期貨業務平台，服務國內外期貨、選擇權、槓桿交易與機構客戶；台股上櫃公司。
  • 元大證券投資信託股份有限公司 元大金控資產管理與 ETF、共同基金、全權委託平台，服務基金與 ETF 受益人；未上市櫃。
  • 個人投資人、高資產客戶、企業客戶、機構法人與基金受益人 金融服務最終客戶群，涵蓋證券交易、財富管理、授信、籌資、保險、基金與期貨交易需求；非單一公司。

Competitors

  • 富邦金控 2881 大型上市金控，同時具銀行、壽險、證券與資產管理業務，是元大金在綜合金控、財富管理與金融商品上的主要競爭者。
  • 國泰金控 2882 大型上市金控，壽險與銀行規模具優勢，與元大金在財富管理、壽險、銀行與資本市場相關業務競爭。
  • 中信金控 2891 大型上市金控，銀行與證券、資產管理業務具規模，與元大金在銀行、財管與法人金融業務競爭。
  • 台新新光金控 2887 台新金與新光金整併後的上市金控，資產規模提升，銀行、壽險、投信整合中，與元大金在銀行、財管與保險市場競爭。
  • 兆豐金控 2886 大型官股金控，具銀行、票券、證券與資產管理業務，與元大金在企業金融、財管與金控股投資標的上競爭。
  • 玉山金控 2884 上市金控，以銀行、財富管理與數位金融見長，與元大金銀行與財富管理業務競爭。
  • 第一金控 2892 官股上市金控，銀行業務規模大，與元大金在存放款、企業金融與財富管理市場競爭。
  • 華南金控 2880 官股上市金控，銀行與證券等金融服務與元大金部分重疊。
  • 永豐金控 2890 上市金控，具銀行、證券與財富管理業務，與元大金在證券、銀行與財管通路競爭。
  • 凱基金控 2883 上市金控，具證券、銀行、壽險與資產管理業務，與元大金在證券、投資銀行與綜合金融服務競爭。
Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.