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2890

永豐金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 永豐金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 60Quality 89Growth 90Momentum 71Chips 98

Is 永豐金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 36th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 89th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 24.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 82.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.41
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 88,911 lots
  • sellers have 30,211 lots left, ~1585 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +24% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 88,911 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 33,063 lots, has sold 79%, 6,866 left, ~44 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.18pp, mid holders +16, retail -0.18pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -46,408 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球台灣摩根士丹利法銀巴黎摩根大通美商高盛
Distributing
美林中國信託國票-敦北法人玉山證券新光永豐金-新莊
Desks
own scale
第一金-高雄凱基凱基-台北群益金鼎
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +88,911
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +73,681
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +62,485
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +52,942
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +44,101
    sold 10%
  • 美商高盛 +42,135
    sold 23%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美林 6,866 left
    sold 79%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 5,464 left
    sold 67%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 7,600 left
    sold 33%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 2,922 left
    sold 50%· ~36 sessions to clear
  • 新光 1,761 left
    sold 56%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-新莊 2,219 left
    sold 33%· ~1585 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 第一金-高雄 -107,231
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -75,404
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -39,379
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎 -29,120
    unclassified
Still selling 30,211 lots ~1585 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +212,995 absorbed / -13,572 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -3,266 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

38 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-18)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 37, Median +2.3%, Excess +1%, Beat mkt rate 67.6%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 36, Median +3.79%, Excess +2.16%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 68.6%, Sample 35, Median +7.35%, Excess +1.71%, Beat mkt rate 48.6%

120 days after: historical avg +7.08%

20-day +1.85%
60-day +4.01%
120-day +7.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
67.6%
66.7%
68.6%
Sample
37
36
35
Median
+2.3%
+3.79%
+7.35%
Excess
+1%
+2.16%
+1.71%
Beat mkt rate
67.6%
66.7%
48.6%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.08%, beat the market by 1.71 pts; win rate 68.6%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 82.69%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

82 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.4%, Sample 70, Median +1.49%, Excess -0.04%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%；60-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 68, Median +4.54%, Excess +0.82%, Beat mkt rate 54.4%；120-day: Win 68.7%, Sample 67, Median +13.17%, Excess +0.75%, Beat mkt rate 55.2%

120 days after: historical avg +10.89%

20-day +1.58%
60-day +5.98%
120-day +10.89%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.4%
67.6%
68.7%
Sample
70
68
67
Median
+1.49%
+4.54%
+13.17%
Excess
-0.04%
+0.82%
+0.75%
Beat mkt rate
54.3%
54.4%
55.2%

Over 67 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.89%, beat the market by 0.75 pts; win rate 68.7%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

74 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-01)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 58.9%, Sample 73, Median +1.38%, Excess -0.26%, Beat mkt rate 53.4%；60-day: Win 70.4%, Sample 71, Median +4.21%, Excess +0.5%, Beat mkt rate 54.9%；120-day: Win 72.5%, Sample 69, Median +7.66%, Excess +1.21%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%

120 days after: historical avg +8.01%

20-day +1.08%
60-day +4.14%
120-day +8.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.9%
70.4%
72.5%
Sample
73
71
69
Median
+1.38%
+4.21%
+7.66%
Excess
-0.26%
+0.5%
+1.21%
Beat mkt rate
53.4%
54.9%
52.2%

Over 69 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.01%, beat the market by 1.21 pts; win rate 72.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 691-1.7% -0.7% 46.7% -10.7%
20-40 519+22.8% +24.4% 90.4% +3.4%
40-60 739+20.5% +17.7% 89.4% +0.2%
60-80 912+18.7% +19.3% 84.4% +0.1%
80-100 You are here72+8.1% +2.7% 77.8% -2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.39, at the 89.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.2%
Win rate 64.8% Excess -0.9%
543d
+8.7%
Win rate 75.5% Excess +3.3%
930d
Now
+10.9%
Win rate 75.7% Excess -4.5%
564d
60-day momentum down
+2.8%
Win rate 69.6% Excess -6.3%
526d
+10.1%
Win rate 87.7% Excess -0.5%
431d
-2.7%
Win rate 32.2% Excess +3%
59d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 564 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.9%, win rate 75.7%, lagged the market by 4.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 永豐金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金控業 上市

Overview

2890 對應證券為永豐金控在臺灣證券交易所掛牌之普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。永豐金控前身為建華金控，成立於 2002 年 5 月 9 日，並於同日上市，2006 年 7 月 20 日正式更名為永豐金融控股股份有限公司。總部位於臺北市中山區八德路二段 306 號 3 樓、5 至 13 樓及 308 號 6 樓之 1、6 樓之 2。董事長為陳思寬，總經理為朱士廷，發言人為許如玫。依臺灣證券交易所 2026 年 6 月 17 日個股資訊，實收資本額為新臺幣 145,023,222,750 元；已發行普通股數約 14,492,322,275 股，另有未上市甲種特別股未轉換餘額 10,000,000 股。2025 年底從業員工 17,014 人，截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日為 17,171 人。主要子公司包括永豐銀行、永豐金證券、京城銀行、永豐金租賃、永豐投信、永豐創投等；海外服務據點涵蓋香港、澳門、中國大陸、越南、柬埔寨、泰國、緬甸及洛杉磯等地。2025 年 10 月 1 日完成以股份轉換方式取得京城銀行 100% 股權；永豐銀行於 2025 年 1 月 14 日完成取得柬埔寨 Amret Plc. 80% 股權，規劃後續分階段取得其餘股權；永豐金證券於 2025 年 10 月 20 日完成吸收合併台灣匯立證券。主要股東依 2025 年年報揭露，前十大股東包括元大台灣高股息基金專戶、永豐餘投資控股、元瀚材料、永豐餘建設開發、上誼文化、永豐餘典範投資、信誼企業等，其中元大台灣高股息基金專戶持股 3.97%，永豐餘投資控股持股 3.80%。

Business

永豐金控為金融控股公司，母公司本身主要透過持股、監督管理、策略領導與資源整合創造收益，獲利主要來自子公司投資收益。可投資事業包括銀行、票券金融、信用卡、信託、保險、證券、期貨、創業投資、外國金融機構及主管機關認定之金融相關事業。核心業務由永豐銀行與永豐金證券支撐，2025 年主要收益來源為永豐銀行、永豐金證券及新納入的京城銀行。銀行業務涵蓋法人金融、零售金融、財富管理、信用卡、信託、財務金融、外匯、存放款、聯貸、供應鏈金融、綠能融資、永續連結貸款、數位帳戶 DAWHO、行動支付與高資產客戶服務；2025 年永豐銀行合併稅後淨利 195.26 億元，EPS 1.76 元，ROE 10.15%，DAWHO 數位帳戶累計開戶數逾 211 萬戶。銀行合併存款中，2025 年活期性存款 1,273,486 百萬元、占 52.16%，定期性存款 1,167,815 百萬元、占 47.84%；放款合計 1,741,094 百萬元，其中長期放款 43.71%、中期放款 41.97%、短期放款 14.12%。證券業務涵蓋經紀、自營、承銷、股務代理、固定收益、權證、期貨輔助、複委託、財富管理信託、借券、外資法人服務等；2025 年永豐金證券合併稅後淨利 64.87 億元，EPS 3.84 元，ROE 16.53%。證券營收結構方面，2025 年經紀業務 14,745 百萬元、占 67.68%，自營業務 6,152 百萬元、占 28.24%，承銷業務 625 百萬元、占 2.87%，其他 265 百萬元、占 1.21%；現貨經紀市占 4.91%、排名第 4，電子交易市占 5.19%、排名第 5，期權市占 5.75%、排名第 4，融資餘額市占 7.11%、排名第 4。京城銀行於 2025 年 10 月加入後，強化中南部中小企業及區域金融客群。永豐金租賃提供臺灣、中國大陸及海外金融租賃服務；永豐投信發展 ETF、主題基金及資產管理；永豐創投投資生技醫療、半導體、ICT、民生消費及 ESG 相關企業。客戶包含個人存款戶、信用卡與貸款客戶、高資產與財富管理客戶、企業與中小企業、跨境臺商、外資法人、上市櫃與興櫃籌資企業、綠能與儲能案場業者、投資人及基金投資人。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年永豐金控合併稅後淨利 265.69 億元，連續三年創金控獲利新高，EPS 1.97 元，ROE 11.53%；2025 年成長動能來自利息淨收益增加、銀行放款與財管手續費成長、證券財富管理與複委託、併購京城銀行、取得 Amret 及合併台灣匯立證券後的規模與客群擴張。公司明確揭露 2025 至 2027 年五大策略主軸為效率、科技、整合、跨境及永續：一、以 RORWA 與資本效率管理提升資本價值，銀行導入 EP 制度，推動低風險資產、私人銀行、高資產服務、Lombard Lending、保單融資及保費融資；證券則提升泛財富管理收入，朝財管型券商轉型。二、深化 AI、生成式 AI、資料治理、雲端備援、RPA、AI 代理、聯合學習、防詐模型、量化交易與生成式商業智慧應用，以提高內部效率與客戶服務個人化。三、推動 One SinoPac，整合銀行、證券、投信、京城銀行與數位平台，擴大 DAWHO、大戶投、大戶豐與薪轉客群跨售。四、擴大跨境收益，依託中國大陸、香港、澳門、越南、柬埔寨 Amret、美國洛杉磯等據點，深耕華商、東協、跨境財管、跨境聯貸與海外在地金融；2025 年已獲金管會同意申設澳洲雪梨分行，2026 年初再獲核准申設泰國辦事處。五、深耕永續金融，延伸綠能融資、儲能、循環經濟、綠電交易信託、永續連結貸款與普惠金融；公司揭露 2025 年太陽光電融資市占率 30%，永豐銀行綠能融資餘額突破 1,600 億元，並承諾 2030 年自身營運淨零、2050 年全資產組合淨零。產業面，2026 年臺灣銀行放款需求預期溫和成長，年報引用主計總處 2026 年 GDP 年增率 7.71% 並推估本國銀行放款成長率 5% 至 10%；投信產業受 ETF、主動式 ETF、亞洲資產管理中心政策推動，資產管理規模仍具成長空間；證券業受海外投資、財富管理、高資產客群與資本市場交易熱度支撐。2027 至 2028 年若併購整合順利，主要上行來源應為京城銀行南部中小企業客群、Amret 柬埔寨微型金融、台灣匯立外資法人通路、財管與高資產手續費、數位金融降本增效及永續金融產品延伸。主要風險包括臺灣金融機構家數過多與價格競爭、利率與匯率波動、資本市場修正影響證券與投資收益、海外經濟及授信風險、Basel III 與系統性重要銀行等監理資本要求、AML/CFT、資安與詐騙風險、AI 與資料治理風險、併購整合成本與文化整合、人才缺口、房市信用管制、地緣政治及全球景氣不確定性。2028 年展望屬本研究依公司 2025 至 2027 策略與金融業趨勢外推，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與資本市場投資人 金融業資金來源之一，包括個人與法人存款、股東資本、公司債、商業本票與同業資金；多數非單一台股掛牌公司。
  • 中央銀行與金融同業市場 提供清算、準備金、同業拆借及利率環境；中央銀行為主管機關，非上市櫃公司。
  • 中小企業信用保證基金 永豐銀行辦理中小企業融資時運用信保與海外信保等保證資源；該基金非上市櫃公司。
  • 證券交易所、櫃買中心、期貨交易所及集中保管結算所 證券經紀、承銷、權證、期貨輔助、ETF 與結算保管等業務所依賴的市場基礎設施，多為非上市櫃機構。
  • Deloitte 勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所 財務報告簽證會計師事務所，提供審計與相關專業服務；非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 個人金融客戶 使用存款、信用卡、房貸、信貸、數位帳戶 DAWHO、行動支付、外匯、基金與信託等服務；非單一掛牌公司。
  • 中小企業與法人客戶 使用企業存款、授信、供應鏈金融、聯貸、現金管理、外匯避險、跨境金流與永續金融服務；多數客戶未揭露或非上市櫃。
  • 高資產與財富管理客戶 使用私人銀行、財富管理、保險規劃、信託、海外投資、保單融資與 Lombard Lending 等服務；非單一掛牌公司。
  • 上市櫃、興櫃與籌資企業 透過永豐金證券取得承銷、上市櫃輔導、財務顧問、股務代理、法人經紀與資本市場籌資服務；個別客戶未完整公開揭露。
  • 綠能、太陽光電、儲能與循環經濟業者 使用綠能融資、聯貸、永續連結貸款、綠電交易信託與相關籌資服務；包括上市櫃與未上市業者，年報未逐一揭露名單。
  • 境外華商與外資法人 使用跨境授信、海外分支機構服務、外資法人臺股經紀、複委託與保管服務；多為境外或未公開客戶。

Competitors

  • 華南金控 2880 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、保險與資產管理等業務競爭。
  • 富邦金控 2881 台股上市大型金控同業，銀行、證券、保險、投信與財富管理競爭。
  • 國泰金控 2882 台股上市大型金控同業，銀行、保險、證券與資產管理競爭。
  • 凱基金控 2883 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、壽險與投資業務競爭。
  • 玉山金控 2884 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、創投與財富管理競爭。
  • 元大金控 2885 台股上市金控同業，在證券經紀、投信 ETF、銀行與財富管理領域競爭。
  • 兆豐金控 2886 台股上市金控同業，銀行、國際金融、票券、證券與保險通路競爭。
  • 台新新光金控 2887 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、保險與財富管理競爭；名稱依 2026 年公開市場資訊使用。
  • 中信金控 2891 台股上市大型金控同業，銀行、保險、證券、投信與海外金融服務競爭。
  • 第一金控 2892 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、投信、保險經紀與法人金融競爭。
  • 合庫金控 5880 台股上市金控同業，銀行、證券、票券、投信、保險與資產管理競爭。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.