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3017

奇鋐 Computer & Peripherals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 奇鋐 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 23Quality 94Growth 86Momentum 81Chips 39

Is 奇鋐 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~88% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 17.0%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 69th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 60.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.05
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 美林 holds 2,605 lots
  • sellers have 2,682 lots left, ~60 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +85% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美林 has accumulated 2,605 lots since the start (sold 8%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-匯立 peaked at 2,068 lots, has sold 26%, 1,523 left, ~60 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.46pp, mid holders +6, retail -0.74pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,476 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美林港商麥格理摩根大通香港上海匯豐凱基兆豐證券
Distributing
永豐金-匯立花旗環球元大證券統一國泰證券國票-敦北法人
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀永豐金證券大和國泰凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美林 +2,605
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +2,548
    sold 15%
  • 摩根大通 +2,059
    sold 21%
  • 香港上海匯豐 +1,513
    sold 3%
  • 凱基 +1,178
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +1,108
    sold 17%

Distributing

  • 永豐金-匯立 1,523 left
    sold 26%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 1,369 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 459 left
    sold 70%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 統一 590 left
    sold 51%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 71 left
    sold 87%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 287 left
    sold 38%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -1,656
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金證券 -1,221
    unclassified
  • 大和國泰 -745
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -728
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 2,682 lots ~60 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,179 absorbed / -1,494 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,732 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 60.64%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

90 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.5%, Sample 71, Median +0.59%, Excess +1.62%, Beat mkt rate 45.1%；60-day: Win 63.8%, Sample 69, Median +8.49%, Excess +6.27%, Beat mkt rate 55.1%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 66, Median +8.32%, Excess +11.43%, Beat mkt rate 53%

120 days after: historical avg +22.68%

20-day +3.23%
60-day +12.24%
120-day +22.68%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.5%
63.8%
66.7%
Sample
71
69
66
Median
+0.59%
+8.49%
+8.32%
Excess
+1.62%
+6.27%
+11.43%
Beat mkt rate
45.1%
55.1%
53%

Over 66 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.68%, beat the market by 11.43 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 140+136.4% +105.7% 100% +119.5%
20-40 617+50.7% +19.1% 89.1% +37.7%
40-60 785+47.8% +31% 79% +41.6%
60-80 863+61.5% +24.9% 88.2% +38.5%
80-100 You are here638+71.3% +63.9% 90.1% +47.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 38.86, at the 87.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+52.5%
Win rate 99.6% Excess +43.7%
256d
+12.1%
Win rate 60.8% Excess +10.2%
873d
Now
+28%
Win rate 75.5% Excess +13.8%
996d
60-day momentum down
+40.8%
Win rate 96.4% Excess +31.9%
309d
+21.8%
Win rate 73.6% Excess +15.7%
409d
+47%
Win rate 72.8% Excess +36.5%
320d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 996 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 28%, win rate 75.5%, beat the market by 13.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.48%, win rate 62.2%, beating the market by +8.17 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.95%, win rate 65.7%, beating the market by +10.27 pts on average.

What does 奇鋐 do? Company profile

電腦及週邊設備業；熱管理、散熱模組、機構件與伺服器系統零組件 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3017 對應證券為奇鋐，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司官方與公開資訊顯示，奇鋐科技創立於 1991 年 12 月 17 日，2002 年 9 月 27 日掛牌上市，統一編號 86427715，總部/登記地址為高雄市前鎮區新生路 248 之 27 號，另於新北新莊設有聯絡與營運據點。董事長與總經理均為沈慶行，發言人為陳易成。Goodinfo 與 Yahoo 股市資料顯示，2026 年 6 月前後實收資本額約新台幣 39.25 億元，已發行普通股約 3.92 億股；PChome 股市顯示 2026 年 6 月 16 日市值約新台幣 9,275 億元，2026 年第 1 季 EPS 為 20.17 元，前 5 月累計營收 805.41 億元、年增 90.31%。公司網站揭露奇鋐為整體散熱解決方案供應商，研發總部設於台灣台北及中國深圳、北京，生產基地包括中國深圳、東莞、成都、武漢等，並有越南基地布局；Goodinfo 另列示重要子公司含奇宏電子（深圳）、深圳興奇宏、東莞明鑫、奇宏光電（武漢）、AVC TECH.（VIETNAM）等。員工規模方面，104 人力銀行揭露約 10,000 人，此為徵才平台口徑，可能含集團與海外廠區。主要股東/董事法人方面，公司登記資料顯示日商古河電氣工業株式會社持有 48,144,693 股並派任多席董事，星合投資、成利投資、顯彥投資等亦為董事相關法人股東；MoneyDJ 亦稱日商 Furukawa Electric 為最大股東。

Business

奇鋐核心商業模式為依客戶平台共同設計、製造並出貨散熱與機構解決方案，產品通常嵌入伺服器、網通設備、桌機、筆電、手機與資料中心設備，而非以自有品牌終端產品銷售。主要產品包含風扇、散熱片、散熱器、散熱模組、熱管、均熱板/3D VC、熱交換器、水冷板、分歧管、CDU、電腦/伺服器機殼、AIO 一體機、伺服器系統組裝與周邊機構件；重要原物料包含銅材、鋁材、鋼材與塑膠製品。MoneyDJ 產業百科揭露 2024 年營收比重約為散熱產品 54%、機箱 14%、系統及周邊部件 21%、轉軸/富世達 11%。2025 年第 1 季法說相關報導顯示，主營業務散熱模組與機箱產品營收 174.2 億元、占 74.6%，系統與周邊 36.6 億元、占 15.7%，子公司/關係企業富世達貢獻 22.5 億元、占 9.7%；按終端應用，伺服器產品營收 106 億元、占主營業務 60.9%，已成主要成長引擎。公司近年由 PC 散熱轉向 AI 伺服器、CSP 自研 ASIC、NVIDIA GPU 平台與高階液冷模組，產品價值量由單一零件提升至水冷板、機箱、分歧管、快接頭、CDU 與系統整合。公開媒體與法人報導提及終端/平台關聯包含 NVIDIA GB200/GB300、AWS、Meta、Google、Microsoft 等美系 CSP，以及 HP、Lenovo 等 PC/OEM 客戶；惟實際直接客戶、合約金額與個別平台供應份額多未由公司逐一正式揭露，應視為供應鏈與法人報導資訊。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年核心展望在於 AI 伺服器功耗快速上升，帶動散熱從高階氣冷、3D VC 轉向水冷板、分歧管、CDU、快接頭與整櫃/系統級熱管理。2025 年公司法說報導指出，受惠 AI 伺服器散熱產品放量，2025 年第 2 季營收預期季增 15% 至 20%，全年營收目標年增逾 35%、淨利成長超過 50%，全年營收呈逐季走升；AI 伺服器營收至少倍增，伺服器在整體營收占比突破 40%。公司表示 GB300 從 Cordelia 架構改回接近 GB200 的 Bianca 架構對既有供應商有利，預計 2025 年第 3 季初完成 GB300 平台散熱模組量產準備，實際出貨仍取決於整機供應鏈節奏。產能方面，MoneyDJ 報導越南廠已規劃四棟廠房量產，後續再新建五棟，目標 2027 年底前九棟全面啟用，定位為高階模組、機構件與水冷零組件主要輸出基地，以因應美系客戶供應鏈多元化需求。2026 年後，市場焦點包括 Blackwell Ultra、GB300、Vera Rubin、Google TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta/其他 CSP 自研 ASIC 等平台導入液冷，液冷滲透率提升將擴大單機價值量；鉅亨研報稱 2026 年液冷滲透率可能大幅攀升，2027 年液冷滲透率突破五成、2028 年達 62% 的研調預估亦被引用。聯合新聞網報導公司訂單能見度已看到 2028 年，且越南新產能開出後可望支撐後續業績。主要風險包括：AI 伺服器平台轉換與客戶拉貨節奏波動、液冷良率與漏液可靠度要求、客戶集中與議價壓力、競爭同業擴產、銅鋁等原物料價格、美元/人民幣/新台幣匯率、美中關稅與產地配置、股價評價已反映高成長預期，以及部分終端客戶與市占率資訊來自法人或媒體推估而非公司逐項正式揭露。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 富世達股份有限公司 6805 奇鋐持股之關係企業/子公司口徑來源不一，公開資料顯示奇鋐持有富世達股權；媒體報導富世達供應 AI 伺服器液冷快接頭、滑軌等關鍵機構零組件，並與奇鋐共同受惠水冷模組需求。
  • 古河電氣工業株式會社 日本上市公司，為奇鋐重要董事法人/大股東；屬材料、電線電纜與工業技術背景關係方，但公開資料未能確認其為奇鋐直接原料供應商。
  • 銅材、鋁材、鋼材與塑膠製品供應商 MoneyDJ 產業資料列為奇鋐主要原物料類別；未查得公司公開指定之個別供應商名稱，因此以原料供應群組呈現。
  • 泵浦、快接頭、閥件、電鍍與精密加工供應鏈 液冷板、CDU、分歧管與微流道/鍍金等新製程需要相關零組件與製程能力；個別供應商多未由公司正式揭露，屬產業鏈推估。
Downstream
  • NVIDIA Corporation 美國上市公司；奇鋐被多家法人/媒體報導為 NVIDIA GB200、GB300 等 AI 伺服器液冷/散熱模組供應鏈成員，實際直接交易關係與市占率未由公司完整逐項揭露。
  • Amazon Web Services / Amazon.com, Inc. 美國上市公司之雲端業務；媒體與法人報導稱奇鋐受惠 AWS 伺服器機殼、液冷板或自研 ASIC/Trainium 平台需求，屬終端客戶/平台供應鏈資訊。
  • Meta Platforms, Inc. 美國上市公司；媒體與法人報導稱 Meta 為 AI 伺服器液冷與 CDU/水冷模組相關需求來源之一，實際採購層級未完全公開。
  • Alphabet Inc. / Google 美國上市公司；媒體報導奇鋐已切入 Google TPU 與 CSP 平台高階氣冷/液冷散熱模組供應鏈，屬終端平台關聯。
  • Microsoft Corporation 美國上市公司；法人報導將 Microsoft 列為美系 CSP 液冷需求來源之一，奇鋐可能透過 ODM/系統供應鏈服務其資料中心平台。
  • 惠普 HP Inc. 美國上市公司；公開百科資料提及 AVC 產品供應 OEM 客戶如 HP，主要為 PC/散熱相關應用。
  • 聯想集團 Lenovo Group 香港上市公司；公開百科資料提及 AVC 產品供應 OEM 客戶如 Lenovo，主要為 PC/散熱相關應用。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 台股上市伺服器 ODM；AI 伺服器整機供應鏈可能承接奇鋐散熱/機構模組，部分媒體提及 Meta/水冷機櫃訂單與廣達相關，但奇鋐對各 ODM 直接出貨關係未逐一公開。
  • 緯穎科技服務股份有限公司 6669 台股上市雲端資料中心伺服器供應商；屬美系 CSP AI 伺服器下游系統鏈代表，與散熱模組需求高度相關，直接交易關係未由奇鋐逐項揭露。
  • 緯創資通股份有限公司 3231 台股上市伺服器/ICT ODM；屬 AI 伺服器與資料中心下游系統供應鏈，與高階散熱需求連動，直接採購關係未完全公開。

Competitors

Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.