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3264

欣銓 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 欣銓 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 欣銓 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~91% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.7%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 64th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.4% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.14

BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
統一 holds 9,332 lots
sellers have 2,423 lots left, ~387 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +37% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 統一 has accumulated 9,332 lots since the start (sold 5%), now trimming.
Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 8,271 lots, has sold 40%, 4,986 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.75pp, mid holders +3, retail +0.89pp — little change.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -31,964 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

統一花旗環球摩根大通國泰證券國票-敦北法人港商野村

Distributing

富邦證券凱基中國信託台新證券華南永昌兆豐-北高雄

Desks

own scale

台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北元大證券

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

統一 +9,332

sold 5%
花旗環球 +6,765

sold 3%· still adding
摩根大通 +6,096

sold 6%
國泰證券 +5,508

sold 13%
國票-敦北法人 +4,122

sold 1%
港商野村 +3,422

sold 7%· still adding

Distributing

富邦證券 4,986 left

sold 40%· paused recently
凱基 1,856 left

sold 46%· paused recently
中國信託 598 left

sold 72%· ~260 sessions to clear
台新證券 1,075 left

sold 28%· paused recently
華南永昌 1,044 left

sold 26%· ~387 sessions to clear
兆豐-北高雄 133 left

sold 88%· paused recently

Desks

台灣摩根士丹利 -12,341

hedge desk · will cover
新加坡商瑞銀 -9,251

hedge desk · will cover
凱基-台北 -8,164

day-trade · selling pressure
元大證券 -7,544

unclassified

Still selling 2,423 lots ~387 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +3,401 absorbed / -585 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -23,095 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 32.95%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

72 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +15.41%

20-day +3.44%

60-day +11.96%

120-day +15.41%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

55.9%

82.5%

70.4%

Sample

Median

+2.92%

+8.32%

+16.44%

Excess

+1.71%

+7.54%

+10.25%

Beat mkt rate

54.2%

73.7%

74.1%

Over 54 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.41%, beat the market by 10.25 pts; win rate 70.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +31.7%

20-40 +13.8%

40-60 +33.1%

60-80 +19.5%

80-100 +32.9% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	625	+31.7%	+27.2%	91.2%	+11.7%
20-40	464	+13.8%	+10.1%	72%	-2%
40-60	573	+33.1%	+40.7%	75%	+15.2%
60-80	654	+19.5%	+27.2%	65.4%	+7.9%
80-100 You are here	727	+32.9%	+16.4%	69.9%	+15.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 32.79, at the 97.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+10.9%

Win rate 68.2% Excess +2.7%

443d

+7.9%

Win rate 58.8% Excess -1.8%

549d

Now

+20.1%

Win rate 70.5% Excess +8.3%

1026d

60-day momentum down

+11.8%

Win rate 68.5% Excess +6.8%

534d

+18.4%

Win rate 76.1% Excess +15.1%

385d

+9.3%

Win rate 65.8% Excess +2.2%

225d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1026 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20.1%, win rate 70.5%, beat the market by 8.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.86%, win rate 63.9%, beating the market by +3.01 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

67 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.08%, win rate 67.2%, beating the market by +3.23 pts on average.

What does 欣銓 do? Company profile

半導體業；專業 IC 測試服務、封測後段測試上櫃（櫃買中心 TPEx）

Overview

3264 對應欣銓科技股份有限公司，為台灣上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1999/10/11，掛牌日期為 2005/01/05，總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉勝利村工業三路3號。官網公司簡介基準日 2025/12/31 顯示登記資本額新台幣100億元、實收資本額約新台幣49億元、員工人數約1,750人；2025年報另揭露截至2026/03/31合併員工人數3,089人。董事長為盧志遠，總經理為張季明；Yahoo 股市與公司投資人關係頁揭露實收資本額為新台幣4,901,700,760元、已發行普通股490,170,076股。主要股東（2026/03/30）包括旺宏電子35,951,871股、持股7.33%；華南商業銀行信託部受託保管安聯台灣科技證券投資信託基金專戶35,360,000股、7.21%；英屬維京群島商威德股份有限公司15,972,408股、3.26%；台北富邦商業銀行受託保管復華台灣科技優息ETF專戶15,542,000股、3.17%；中華郵政9,676,000股、1.97%。公司據點包含新竹湖口多座廠區、新加坡、韓國、南京、新加坡二廠與2025年啟用之龍潭廠；並轉投資瑞峰半導體，提供晶圓級封裝相關能力。

Business

欣銓為專業半導體測試服務公司，主要提供記憶體 IC 晶圓測試、數位訊號 IC 與混合訊號 IC 之晶圓及成品測試、晶圓型式 Burn-in 測試、雷射修補、SoC 與 Embedded IC 測試技術、高效能類比 IC 測試、RF IC 晶圓與成品測試、CIS 晶圓與成品測試、各類 IC 測試技術開發及產品分析、Post-Bumping 後段製程技術。2025年合併營收新台幣14,028,461仟元，年增7.08%，稅後淨利新台幣2,840,237仟元，EPS 5.99元；2026年1至5月累計營收新台幣6,964,? 仟元左右，Yahoo揭露2026/05單月營收1,517,840仟元、年增32.96%。2025年產品營收結構為晶圓測試9,989,372仟元、占71.21%；成品測試3,998,084仟元、占28.50%；其他41,005仟元、占0.29%。主要銷售地區為台灣4,210,353仟元、新加坡3,439,701仟元、歐洲1,933,282仟元、日本1,763,197仟元、美國1,695,802仟元、大陸670,980仟元、其他315,146仟元。商業模式為以高資本支出測試機台、工程開發、測試程式、品質系統、IT/CIM/ERP/B2B自動化與全球據點提供委外測試服務，受益於 IDM、Fabless 與晶圓代工/封裝體系之專業分工。2025年主要客戶以年報匿名揭露：X公司占14%，為全球主要通信、數位、汽車及其他半導體產品與技術解決供應商；J公司占12%，為美國資料中心、企業網路、電信基礎設施及汽車/工業主要供應商；L公司占10%，為歐洲汽車、電源管理、工業及安控半導體供應商。終端應用包含電腦、通訊、消費性電子、一般工業、汽車電子、資訊安全、智慧型手機 RF/通訊、IoT、Data Center 光通訊、5G、AI/HPC、電源管理與矽光子。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司受益於 AI 相關記憶體與部分邏輯產品需求、車用與工控庫存調整結束、AI晶片測試需求爆發，合併營收年增7.1%、毛利與獲利改善。2026年公司年報引用 WSTS 預估全球半導體銷售年增約25%至26.3%，成長集中於 AI 伺服器、CSP 自研 ASIC、3奈米/2奈米 GPU/ASIC、HBM3e/HBM4、DDR5與企業級SSD；欣銓營運重點為與策略性客戶合作，投資 AI/HPC、矽光子、車用、5G、IoT、先進電源管理與類比晶片測試。2026/05法說相關報導指出，首季稼動率回升至七成多，第二季營收預估中個位數成長；龍潭廠第一層無塵室已準備就緒，主要鎖定 AI ASIC 晶圓測試（CP），預計2026年第3季開始貢獻營收，後續最多可建置七層無塵室，理想規劃為2027與2028年各啟用三層，但實際進度受工程供應商交期與人力影響。2027至2028年潛在成長動能包括龍潭廠擴充、AI ASIC/高 pin count 高功耗測試、系統級測試、Burn-in、CoWoS測試外溢、CPO/矽光子驗證或小量量產後可能放大、China+1 與非中國產線需求、新加坡二廠與海外布局、全智科技 RF/光通訊測試、瑞峰半導體晶圓級封裝合作。主要風險包括：AI需求與CSP ASIC放量時程不確定、客戶驗證拉長、測試機台與無塵室資本支出高且折舊壓力大、測試設備成本與供應鏈不穩、同業擴產與價格競爭、晶圓代工廠與封裝廠垂直整合測試、匯率與利率、地緣政治與出口管制、傳統消費性電子需求疲弱、記憶體缺貨漲價可能壓抑終端 PC/手機需求。公司未公開2027至2028量化財測，上述展望屬依年報、法說新聞與產業趨勢之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream

東京威力科創（Tokyo Electron, TEL）日本上市半導體設備商；市場新聞指出欣銓採購 TEL 設備投入龍潭廠擴產，非台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
愛德萬測試（Advantest）日本上市測試設備商；市場新聞指出欣銓採購 Advantest 設備投入龍潭廠擴產，非台股掛牌，stock_id 設為 null。
美、日測試機台與周邊設備供應商年報說明公司因產業特性每年規劃資本支出，主要機器設備多向美、日廠商採購；未逐一揭露供應商名稱，且公司為IC測試服務業，無主要原料與無主要進貨供應商。
瑞峰半導體欣銓轉投資之未上市晶圓級封裝公司，提供 CuNiAu RDL 佈線、Copper pillar/Lead Free Bump 與 turnkey 晶圓級封裝服務，協助延伸測試服務範疇。
全智科技欣銓子公司，已於2017年合併，提供射頻元件專業測試與通訊、光通訊、RF、PMIC相關測試能力；非獨立台股掛牌公司。

Downstream

X公司（年報匿名） 2025年最大銷貨客戶，占合併銷貨淨額14%；年報描述為全球主要通信、數位、汽車及其他半導體產品與技術解決供應商，未揭露正式名稱，stock_id 設為 null。
J公司（年報匿名） 2025年銷貨客戶，占12%；年報描述為美國資料中心、企業網路、電信基礎設施及汽車/工業主要供應商，因 AI 基礎設施需求增加而達10%以上，未揭露正式名稱。
L公司（年報匿名） 2025年銷貨客戶，占10%；年報描述為歐洲主要汽車、電源管理、工業及安控半導體供應商，未揭露正式名稱。
策略性晶圓代工大廠 2026年法說新聞指出龍潭廠 AI ASIC 晶圓測試已與策略性晶圓代工大廠合作，但未揭露名稱；不得推定為特定上市櫃公司。
國內外 IDM、Fabless、IC設計與晶圓代工客戶公司提供晶圓測試、成品測試、Burn-in、RF、CIS、PMIC、HPC/AI、矽光子測試服務；下游終端涵蓋通訊、資料中心、汽車/工業、消費電子、資訊安全、IoT與AI伺服器。

Competitors

日月光投控 3711 台股上市封測龍頭，年報列為台灣主要測試服務競爭者之一；具封裝、測試與系統級整合能力。
京元電子 2449 台股上市專業測試大廠，年報列為主要測試服務競爭者；在邏輯、通訊、車用與AI相關測試領域競爭。
矽格 6257 台股上市半導體測試與封裝服務商，年報列為主要測試服務競爭者。
力成科技 6239 台股上市封測廠，年報以 Tera Power/力成列為競爭者；力成集團在記憶體、邏輯與封測服務具規模。
南茂科技 8150 台股上市封測廠，年報產業分工表列為測試/封裝相關廠商；在記憶體、DDIC與封測領域與欣銓部分服務競爭。
頎邦科技 6147 台股上櫃封測廠，年報產業分工表列為測試/封裝相關廠商；於顯示驅動IC、凸塊與封測領域具競爭關係。
超豐電子 2441 台股上市封裝測試廠，年報產業分工表列為下游封裝相關廠商；在部分後段封測服務上具替代競爭。
華泰電子 2329 台股上市封測廠，年報產業分工表列為下游封裝相關廠商；在封測供應鏈中與欣銓部分客戶需求重疊。

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.