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3466

德晉 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 德晉 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 德晉 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 4th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.7%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 80th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 76th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.3% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 1974.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.91

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
凱基-三重 holds 2,221 lots
sellers have 421 lots left, ~111 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 凱基-三重 has accumulated 2,221 lots since the start (sold 1%), holding.
Main distributor 永豐金-萬盛 peaked at 544 lots, has sold 39%, 334 left, ~111 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.40pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.36pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,900 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

凱基-三重國票-新莊玉山-台中凱基-大里玉山-大里國泰證券

Distributing

永豐金-萬盛美商高盛富邦-板橋台灣摩根士丹利國泰-桃園元大-新盛

Desks

own scale

凱基-台北港商野村新光元大-和平

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

凱基-三重 +2,221

sold 1%
國票-新莊 +1,112

sold 0%· still adding
玉山-台中 +567

sold 3%· still adding
凱基-大里 +493

sold 0%
玉山-大里 +484

sold 4%· still adding
國泰證券 +403

sold 0%

Distributing

永豐金-萬盛 334 left

sold 39%· ~111 sessions to clear
美商高盛 118 left

sold 66%· paused recently
富邦-板橋 146 left

sold 30%· paused recently
台灣摩根士丹利 22 left

sold 78%· ~17 sessions to clear
國泰-桃園 62 left

sold 37%· paused recently
元大-新盛 19 left

sold 79%· paused recently

Desks

凱基-台北 -1,309

day-trade · selling pressure
港商野村 -859

hedge desk · will cover
新光 -764

unclassified
元大-和平 -403

unclassified

Still selling 421 lots ~111 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,354 absorbed / -169 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -514 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 1974.03%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

81 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +3.7%

20-day +2.82%

60-day +5.43%

120-day +3.7%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

50.7%

43.8%

41.7%

Sample

Median

+0.59%

-2.17%

-6.06%

Excess

+0.89%

+0.71%

-3.62%

Beat mkt rate

44%

39.7%

27.8%

Over 72 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.7%, lagged the market by 3.62 pts; win rate 41.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +85.1%

20-40 +43.1%

40-60 +19.9%

60-80 +19.4% Now

80-100 -9.1%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	72	+85.1%	+87.5%	95.8%	+16.5%
20-40	166	+43.1%	+36.8%	77.7%	+10.4%
40-60	292	+19.9%	-10.5%	34.2%	+13.5%
60-80 You are here	107	+19.4%	-19.5%	38.3%	+11.7%
80-100	480	-9.1%	-14%	30.6%	-37.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 37.31, at the 75.9th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

-10.7%

Win rate 21.1% Excess -19.8%

38d

+10%

Win rate 35.7% Excess +8%

207d

Now

+14.5%

Win rate 45.1% Excess +3.3%

237d

60-day momentum down

+26%

Win rate 59% Excess +9.9%

105d

+21.6%

Win rate 69.5% Excess +9.7%

266d

+3.1%

Win rate 27.4% Excess -18.1%

340d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 237 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.5%, win rate 45.1%, beat the market by 3.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.62%, win rate 41.2%, beating the market by +3.68 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.91%, win rate 43.3%, beating the market by +1.63 pts on average.

What does 德晉 do? Company profile

通信網路業上櫃

Overview

3466 對應台灣上櫃普通股「德晉」，公司全名為德晉科技股份有限公司，英文名 Skardin Industrial Corporation，原名致振企業股份有限公司。公司成立於 1982-03-23，上櫃掛牌日為 2006-05-17，總部位於新北市三重區興德路123-1號8樓，統一編號 12375925，電話 02-8512-3068。依櫃買中心與券商基本資料，截至本研究日附近公開資料，董事長為湯棋同，總經理與發言人為劉佳峰；實收資本額約新台幣 778,920,730 元，已發行普通股約 77,892,073 股。2024 年報列示 2025-03-18 主要股東包括恆盈泰資本投資股份有限公司 24.13%、青櫟資本股份有限公司籌備處代表人於知慶 9.76%、Michael Robert Milne 5.45%、揚盛股份有限公司 3.63%等；後續董事長於 2025-09-19 改由恆盈泰資本投資股份有限公司代表人湯棋同擔任。員工規模方面，2024 年底合計 140 人，2025-03-31 降至 87 人，反映公司仍處營運重整與轉型階段。2024 年合併營收新台幣 278,731 千元、稅後淨損 157,539 千元；2025 年公司公告全年營收約新台幣 76,702 千元、歸屬母公司淨損約 81,775 千元、每股損失 1.11 元，且公告累積虧損達實收資本額二分之一。

Business

德晉傳統核心業務為數位機上盒與相關電子產品之設計、製造、外銷與買賣，產品涵蓋數位衛星接收器 DVB-S/S2、數位地面廣播接收器 DVB-T/T2、數位有線接收器 DVB-C、高畫質/4K、條件存取 CA、PVR、IP-STB、Hybrid STB 等。2024 年報營收比重為：數位機上盒產品及零組件 84.11%、儲能設備及其零組件 5.19%、其他電子產品 5.51%、再生能源 5.19%；2025 年券商資料顯示營收比重已轉為數位網卡 53.17%、再生能源 16.82%、電子產品 16.51%、機上盒及零組件 13.49%，顯示營收結構由傳統機上盒向網通、能源與其他電子產品轉移。主要銷售地區方面，2024 年以智利 37.61%、秘魯 16.53%、台灣 13.28%、厄瓜多 10.95%、烏拉圭 10.92%為主；公司年報說明主要客戶為歐洲、中南美洲及非洲當地系統業者或自有品牌商，客戶名稱以 A、B、C、D、F 等代號揭露，未公開實名。上游主要原料為各類 IC、Flash、SDRAM 等記憶體，由 IC 原廠及通路商供應。新能源事業方面，公司於 2022 年成立新能源事業部，從事太陽能電站開發、投資、建置、維運、儲能設備及相關工程服務，年報提到案場包括新竹海山漁港曬網場、新竹海山漁港回收場與嘉義布袋港。AI/IDC 方面，公司於 2024 年 11 月成立 AI 算力中心事業處，規劃以伺服器代管、代運營與算力中心租賃為主，2026 年宣布與 KONST 康斯特於新北市中和區建置 AI 算力中心，媒體報導工程金額約新台幣 1.25 億元；2026 年 3 月另接獲臺北大眾捷運股份有限公司「貓空纜車無線電系統汰換採購」標案，契約總價約新台幣 21,508,200 元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 展望可分為三條主軸。第一，傳統機上盒業務仍面臨成熟市場壓力：全球有線電視數位化與類比訊號關閉進程接近完成、北美付費電視成長放緩、中國 IPTV 市場飽和，傳統 STB 出貨成長動能下降；但 OTT、IP/OTT hybrid、4K UHD/HDR、多房間多螢幕與智慧家庭應用仍有替換與新興市場需求。公司策略是導入新晶片、推動 USB CI+、Android 互動式視訊產品、Hybrid 4K STB，並開拓巴西、拉美、非洲、印度等市場，同時以分散式外包、CKD/SKD 彈性出貨因應關稅與地緣風險。第二，新能源業務受惠企業 ESG、綠電、碳權、電價上升與光儲合一需求，公司已切入太陽能電站開發、儲能設備與維運工程；但規模仍小，2024 年公司太陽光電市場占有率約 0.02%，未來能否放大案場、取得資金與維持工程品質，是關鍵變數。第三，AI/IDC 是最大轉型變數：公司年報規劃建置可放置約 200 台 B200 氣冷式 AI 伺服器之 IDC 機房，總用電量 3.5MW，並於 2026 年啟動中和 AI 算力中心合作案；若順利完工並取得長約客戶，可能帶來較穩定的代管與租賃收入，但同時有資本支出、電力取得、散熱與機房維運能力、GPU/伺服器供應、客戶簽約率、技術迭代與融資成本等重大風險。財務面，公司 2024、2025 仍虧損且曾公告累積虧損達實收資本額二分之一，2025-2028 的核心觀察點為：AI/IDC 是否如期貢獻營收、傳統機上盒是否止跌、新能源案場是否放量、毛利率能否改善、營運現金流是否轉正，以及是否需再增資或舉債支持轉型。

Supply Chain

Upstream

聯發科技 2454 台股上市 IC 設計公司；德晉年報僅揭露上游為各類 IC 原廠及通路商，未指名供應商，聯發科屬機上盒/網通晶片產業上游可能供應鏈，非確認直接供應商。
瑞昱半導體 2379 台股上市網通與多媒體 IC 設計公司；屬機上盒、網通產品常見晶片上游，非年報確認直接供應商。
華邦電子 2344 台股上市記憶體公司；德晉主要原料含 Flash、SDRAM 等記憶體，華邦屬潛在產業上游，非確認直接供應商。
南亞科技 2408 台股上市 DRAM 公司；德晉主要原料含 SDRAM，南亞科屬潛在產業上游，非確認直接供應商。
輝達美國上市 NVIDIA；德晉 AI 算力中心規劃支援 DGX B200/HGX B200 等伺服器上架，屬 AI GPU/平台關鍵上游，非台股掛牌。
美超微美國上市 Supermicro；德晉年報提及 Supermicro 或其他廠牌 HGX B200 伺服器上架規劃，屬 AI 伺服器設備上游，非台股掛牌。
康斯特科技 KONST 康斯特，未上市；2026 年與德晉合作建置新北中和 AI 算力中心，屬 AI/IDC 策略與工程合作夥伴。
聯合再生能源 3576 台股上市太陽能電池/模組公司；德晉新能源業務涉及太陽能電站與儲能，聯合再生屬太陽能模組產業上游/同業供應鏈，非確認直接供應商。
元晶太陽能 6443 台股上市太陽能電池/模組公司；屬德晉新能源業務可能上游，非確認直接供應商。

Downstream

歐洲、中南美洲及非洲當地系統業者或自有品牌商年報揭露之主要銷貨客群；客戶以代號 A、B、C、D、F 匿名揭露，未能確認是否上市或實名。
臺北大眾捷運股份有限公司未上市公營事業；德晉 2026 年接獲其貓空纜車無線電系統汰換採購標案，契約總價約新台幣 21,508,200 元。
企業 AI/HPC 與雲端算力需求客戶德晉 AI 算力中心預計以伺服器代管、代運營與算力租賃服務企業客戶；截至研究日未見公司公開主要客戶名單。
工商業綠電與太陽能電站業主新能源事業下游，包含太陽能電站建置、維運、儲能與綠電需求客戶；公開資料未揭露具體上市櫃客戶。

Competitors

智易科技 3596 台股上市網通設備 ODM，公司產品與德晉網通、STB、家庭網路設備方向有業務重疊。
啟碁科技 6285 台股上市網通與通訊設備廠，在寬頻、機上盒、無線通訊設備等領域具競爭關係。
正文科技 4906 台股上市網通設備廠，與德晉在寬頻接取、家庭網通與影音終端設備方向有部分重疊。
仲琦科技 2419 台股上市通訊網路設備廠，產品含纜線數據機、寬頻接取與數位家庭設備，屬通訊網路同業。
中華電信 2412 台股上市電信與 IDC/雲端服務業者；在資料中心、雲端與企業代管服務上可能與德晉 AI/IDC 轉型方向競爭。
台灣大哥大 3045 台股上市電信業者，提供雲端、IDC 與企業資訊服務，屬 AI/IDC 下游服務競爭者之一。
遠傳電信 4904 台股上市電信業者，具 IDC、雲端與企業資通訊服務，與德晉新切入 IDC/算力代管方向有部分競爭。
雲豹能源 6869 台股上市再生能源服務商，與德晉新能源事業在太陽能電站開發、建置與維運市場有競爭或業務重疊。
聯合再生能源 3576 台股上市太陽能電池、模組與系統業者，與德晉新能源案場及系統服務有供應鏈與競爭重疊。
元晶太陽能 6443 台股上市太陽能電池/模組業者，屬太陽能產業同業與潛在競爭者。

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.