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3489

森寶 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 森寶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 53Quality 25Growth 77Momentum 38Chips 78

Is 森寶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 29th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 35.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.09
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 群益金鼎-西松 holds 328 lots
  • sellers have 77 lots left, ~60 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-西松 has accumulated 328 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-敦南 peaked at 108 lots, has sold 75%, 27 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.17pp, mid holders +1, retail +0.10pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -142 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-西松凱基-大里台新證券國票證券元大-竹北新光-台中
Distributing
永豐金-敦南凱基-台北元大-新營中國信託富邦-桃園兆豐-中壢
Desks
own scale
凱基-高美館元大證券玉山-雙和元大-士林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-西松 +328
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-大里 +272
    sold 0%
  • 台新證券 +233
    sold 2%
  • 國票證券 +189
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-竹北 +149
    sold 11%
  • 新光-台中 +122
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金-敦南 27 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 44 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 元大-新營 10 left
    sold 88%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 36 left
    sold 27%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-桃園 15 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-中壢 8 left
    sold 79%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-高美館 -613
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -380
    unclassified
  • 玉山-雙和 -329
    unclassified
  • 元大-士林 -225
    unclassified
Still selling 77 lots ~60 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +562 absorbed / -58 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 35.48%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

101 historical occurrences (since 2007-09-29)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.3%, Sample 91, Median -0.64%, Excess -1.55%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%；60-day: Win 40.4%, Sample 89, Median -2.86%, Excess -5.88%, Beat mkt rate 34.8%；120-day: Win 40.9%, Sample 88, Median -4.82%, Excess -10.39%, Beat mkt rate 26.1%

120 days after: historical avg -4.29%

20-day -0.3%
60-day -2.24%
120-day -4.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.3%
40.4%
40.9%
Sample
91
89
88
Median
-0.64%
-2.86%
-4.82%
Excess
-1.55%
-5.88%
-10.39%
Beat mkt rate
38.5%
34.8%
26.1%

Over 88 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.29%, lagged the market by 10.39 pts; win rate 40.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 16Insufficient data
20-40 170+13.7% +9.4% 91.2% -5.5%
40-60 395+21.4% +20.7% 75.4% +1.5%
60-80 379+12.3% +3.3% 58.6% -3.1%
80-100 You are here283+58% +31.3% 50.9% +38.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 344.44, at the 99.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.2%
Win rate 66.7% Excess -0.8%
36d
+25.6%
Win rate 79.7% Excess +15.4%
423d
Now
+13.3%
Win rate 58.8% Excess +3.5%
364d
60-day momentum down
+23.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +2.7%
38d
+5.5%
Win rate 67.5% Excess +0.1%
317d
+7.7%
Win rate 64% Excess -1%
178d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 364 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.3%, win rate 58.8%, beat the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.02%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +0.97 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.65%, win rate 81.8%, beating the market by +8.91 pts on average.

What does 森寶 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

3489 對應證券為森寶開發股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 1991/06/08，前身為筌寶電子股份有限公司，2005 年股票公開發行，2007/09/29 上櫃交易，2013 年更名為森寶開發股份有限公司並轉型不動產開發與營造。總部位於桃園市蘆竹區南崁里民權路 50 號；董事長為簡元城，總經理為簡文潔。實收資本額約新台幣 9.05 億元，已發行普通股約 90,452,155 股。公司 100% 轉投資森碁營造有限公司，森碁營造實收資本額約新台幣 1.10 億元，負責營造業務。公開資料顯示前十大持股約 64.1%，董監事及經理人持股高度集中；主要法人股東包括禾潤投資股份有限公司、民瑋投資股份有限公司、正義投資有限公司等，各揭露持股約 12,533 張級距。母公司員工總數未能由公開資料明確確認；子公司森碁營造在人力銀行資料揭露員工數約 68 人，僅供參考。

Business

森寶目前主要業務為住宅及大樓開發租售、綜合營建。商業模式以土地開發、合建或自行購地、規劃住宅大樓與商業大樓、委由或透過 100% 子公司森碁營造承攬施工，完工後交屋入帳為主；因此營收與獲利具建案完工時點集中、年度波動大的特性。公司自 2014 年後在林口推出「美麗莊園」，2018 年起陸續於新北市推出「快樂莊園」、「森JIA」、「森朵」、「森睦」、「森越」、「森治」等建案。2024 年營收結構依 MoneyDJ 整理為住宅及大樓開發出售約 59%、營造工程約 40%、房地產租賃約 0.5%。主要終端客戶為國內自住與換屋住宅買方、投資型買方及商業空間需求者；公司資料指出開發銷售產品主要以國內為主，未見國外開發。2025 年法說會揭露 2025 上半年合併營收 2.68972 億元、稅後淨損 616.6 萬元，主因在建案尚未大量完工交屋；2026 年前 5 月累計營收約 4.32 億元、年增約 96.63%，但營建業獲利仍須視完工交屋與成本結算。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：公司處於主要建案施工期，森越、森治尚未完工，大額收入認列有限，營收與獲利仍可能偏弱或波動；2025 法說會資料顯示 1H2025 營收較 2H2024 明顯下滑，並呈小幅虧損。2026 年：主要成長動能來自林口「森越」與「森治」兩案，法說會揭露森越權益比率 100%、基地 1,015.6 坪、226 戶、總銷 35 億元、預計 2026 年下半年完工；森治為住宅合建案，權益比率 50%、基地 884.66 坪、226 戶、總銷 32 億元、預計 2026 年下半年完工。第三方法說會摘要稱兩案已全數完銷，但此完銷狀態需以公司最新公告或銷售揭露再確認。若如期取得使照與交屋，2026 年下半年至 2027 年可能出現營收與獲利高峰。2027 年：視 2026 年交屋遞延、保留戶銷售、工程結算與後續土地取得進度而定；若森越、森治交屋集中在 2026 年，2027 年基期可能拉高且需新案接棒。2028 年：成長可見度取決於北部土地儲備、合建案拓展、政策環境與推案節奏，目前公開資料未能確認足夠明確的 2028 年案源。產業趨勢方面，北台灣重劃區住宅需求、公共建設與交通建設仍是中小型建商推案機會；但央行選擇性信用管制、房貸資金緊縮、高利率、土地成本高、營建人工與原物料成本、工期延誤、使照取得、預售屋政策與房市景氣轉弱，均是主要風險。公司案量集中於少數建案，單一建案時程與銷售狀況對年度財報影響較大。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 森碁營造有限公司 森寶 100% 轉投資子公司，實收資本額約新台幣 1.10 億元，負責營造工程承攬；未上市櫃。
  • 地主與合建方 公司土地取得包含自行開發、買賣及合建模式；公開資料未逐案完整揭露合建方名稱，多為未上市櫃或自然人地主。
  • 建築設計、鋼筋水泥、機電、裝修與工程材料供應商 營建開發所需上游供應鏈；公開資料未揭露穩定特定供應商名單，無法填列台股代號。
  • 金融機構與建築融資銀行 營建業通常依土地、在建工程與銷售進度取得專案融資；森寶個別授信銀行與額度需查閱財報附註，本文未能完整確認。
Downstream
  • 國內住宅自住與換屋買方 主要終端客戶，購買林口、鶯歌等區域住宅產品；非台股掛牌實體。
  • 國內商業空間與店面買方或承租戶 住宅大樓或商業大樓之店面、商業空間使用者；公開資料未揭露具名主要客戶。
  • 房屋銷售代銷與仲介通路 建案銷售通路與成交媒介；公開資料未能確認森寶各案固定代銷公司名稱。

Competitors

  • 遠雄建設 5522 台股上市建商，MoneyDJ 將其列為森寶主要競爭廠商之一；產品與區域可能在北台灣住宅市場競爭。
  • 鄉林建設 5531 台股上市建商，住宅與商用不動產開發同業。
  • 長虹建設 5534 台股上市建商，北台灣住宅與商辦推案同業。
  • 皇翔建設 2545 台股上市建商，住宅與商辦開發同業。
  • 興富發 2542 台股上市大型建商，推案量與品牌規模較大，為住宅市場競爭者。
  • 華固建設 2548 台股上市建商，北台灣住宅與商辦市場競爭者。
  • 聯上發 2537 台股上市營建股，櫃買與上市營建同業比較常見標的。
  • 亞昕 5213 台股上櫃營建股，林口及北部住宅市場具競爭關係。
  • 坤悅 5206 台股上櫃營建股，同屬中小型建商比較對象。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.