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3491

昇達科 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 昇達科 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 93Growth 86Momentum 77Chips 23

Is 昇達科 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~93% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 57.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 750 lots
  • sellers have 407 lots left, ~140 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +69% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 750 lots since the start (sold 6%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-匯立 peaked at 1,825 lots, has sold 26%, 1,355 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.57pp, mid holders -9, retail +8.19pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,622 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀國泰-敦南法銀巴黎台新-城東華南永昌-世貿國票-台南
Distributing
永豐金-匯立美林富邦證券統一凱基-市政凱基-信義
Desks
own scale
摩根大通美商高盛國泰-松江台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +750
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +284
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +194
    sold 9%
  • 台新-城東 +136
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-世貿 +132
    sold 0%
  • 國票-台南 +108
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金-匯立 1,355 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 美林 644 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 193 left
    sold 71%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 統一 75 left
    sold 74%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-市政 9 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 凱基-信義 52 left
    sold 29%· ~25 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -862
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -779
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰-松江 -658
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -630
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 407 lots ~140 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +954 absorbed / -309 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,368 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 57.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

80 historical occurrences (since 2008-01-03)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 72, Median +3.47%, Excess +6.7%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 70, Median +4.15%, Excess +15.94%, Beat mkt rate 61.4%；120-day: Win 70.1%, Sample 67, Median +13.26%, Excess +19.06%, Beat mkt rate 64.2%

120 days after: historical avg +22.52%

20-day +7.54%
60-day +17.81%
120-day +22.52%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
60%
70.1%
Sample
72
70
67
Median
+3.47%
+4.15%
+13.26%
Excess
+6.7%
+15.94%
+19.06%
Beat mkt rate
61.1%
61.4%
64.2%

Over 67 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.52%, beat the market by 19.06 pts; win rate 70.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 633+22.9% +22.7% 87.7% +8.7%
20-40 296+8.6% +4.3% 61.5% -9.1%
40-60 301+0.4% -1.4% 46.8% -8.4%
60-80 359+23.9% -0.2% 49.6% +8.5%
80-100 You are here1442+66.3% +39.2% 78.2% +47.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 169.58, at the 98.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.3%
Win rate 57.7% Excess -1.3%
310d
+5.4%
Win rate 70.1% Excess -1.1%
351d
Now
+32.7%
Win rate 58.9% Excess +23.9%
1162d
60-day momentum down
+12.7%
Win rate 77% Excess +5%
499d
-2.4%
Win rate 41.1% Excess -4.4%
192d
+40.1%
Win rate 79.7% Excess +28.5%
636d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1162 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 32.7%, win rate 58.9%, beat the market by 23.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.74%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by +15.2 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.06%, win rate 63.3%, beating the market by +11.74 pts on average.

What does 昇達科 do? Company profile

通信網路業；微波／毫米波高頻通訊元件、射頻天線與低軌衛星通訊供應鏈 櫃買中心上櫃（TPEX）

Overview

昇達科技股份有限公司，英文名 Universal Microwave Technology, Inc.，簡稱 UMT，股票代號 3491，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 1999 年，2008 年 1 月上櫃，總公司位於基隆市七堵區工建路 1 號，主要工廠位於基隆市七堵區工建南路 13 號。董事長為陳淑敏，總經理為創辦人吳東義博士；公司官網說明吳東義具微波／毫米波產業 30 年以上經歷。依 2026 年股東會年報，截至 2026 年 4 月 30 日流通在外普通股 68,805,125 股、實收股本約新台幣 6.8805 億元；截至 2026 年 4 月 30 日集團員工 765 人。主要股東方面，2026 年股東會年報揭露截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日，岑昕投資股份有限公司持股 4,133,856 股、6.01%，為最大股東；另包含花旗台灣銀行受託保管挪威中央銀行相關投資專戶 2,666,000 股、3.88%，弘仁投資有限公司 1,400,000 股、2.04%，群益馬拉松基金專戶 1,074,000 股、1.56%，蔡志瑋受吳東義信託財產專戶 1,010,000 股、1.47%，以及其他外資保管與個人股東。公司另有台灣士誼科技、正通科技、芮特科技，以及越南、泰國、美國等海外子公司或據點。

Business

昇達科定位為微波／毫米波與射頻前端被動通訊元件、天線及模組級次系統供應商，產品包括濾波器、多工器、雙工器、耦合器、OMT 組件、環行器／隔離器、波導元件、精密加工零件、天線與高頻通訊模組等。應用已由傳統 4G／5G 地面微波回傳、基地台、WiFi／IoT／車載／無人機等射頻天線，快速轉向低軌衛星通訊設備，涵蓋衛星酬載、地面站 Gateway、衛星間通訊、D2D／D2C 直連手機、衛星遙測追蹤與指令等場景。2025 年股東會法說資料顯示，2025Q1 四大產品營收比重為低軌衛星 57.0%、射頻天線 24.0%、5G／4G 回傳網路 12.7%、網路工程 6.3%；2026 年股東會年報改以主要銷售產品項目揭露 2025 年度營業比重，微波／毫米波產品 74.86%、射頻產品 21.55%、通訊網路工程服務 3.59%。公司商業模式以客製化設計、研發、認證、量產與交付高頻被動元件為核心，技術門檻在於高頻電磁設計、精密加工、表面處理、測試驗證、航太品質與量產良率；年報揭露 2025 年任一年度占銷貨 10% 以上客戶為匿名客戶 A 與客戶 B，2025 年占比分別為 35.12% 與 10.55%，其中客戶 A 因產品需求增加、進入量產階段而成長。外部媒體與券商資料報導其低軌衛星客戶包含 SpaceX、Amazon Project Kuiper 等，但公司年報未具名確認，故此部分列為外部報導資訊。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年是昇達科低軌衛星產品量產交付與營收結構升級的關鍵年。公司 2026 年股東會年報指出，2025 年低軌衛星相關產品營收占比由年初約五成提高至第四季約七成，產品應用由單一元件延伸至衛星酬載、地面站、星間通訊與多頻段高階通訊模組，帶動高門檻、高附加價值產品比重提高；同時國內新廠投產、海外生產據點擴建、航太品質體系認證、自動化設備與專業人力逐步到位。公司將 2026 年營運主軸設定為雙成長曲線：第一，深化低軌衛星供應鏈地位，提升毫米波模組與高整合度通訊產品在 Payload、Optical ISL、Gateway 的供應比重；第二，拓展太空產業應用與國防通訊布局，包含高頻寬通訊模組、星間光鏈路、多軌道／多頻段整合應用與高可靠度專業通訊產品。2025 年法說資料另指出，低軌衛星發射數量成長、地面站鋪設與衛星約 5 至 6 年壽命汰換，可形成多年延續需求；Direct-to-Device、低軌與電信商結盟、多軌道／多頻段衛星將增加通訊頻寬與網路彈性。2026 至 2028 年的主要成長動能推估來自全球低軌衛星星座大規模部署、SpaceX／Kuiper 等外部報導客戶放量、OISL 與高頻模組產品單顆衛星價值提升、越南／台灣產能擴充與製程自動化帶來規模效益。主要風險包括客戶集中、衛星發射排程或火箭運載瓶頸、客戶產品轉換、低軌衛星資本支出循環、航太品質認證與良率爬坡、匯率波動、國際貿易與地緣政治、原物料成本、歐美老牌高頻元件廠競爭，以及股價評價已反映高成長預期的波動風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 金屬材料供應商 年報揭露微波通訊上游包含鋁、銅等金屬原料；未具名供應商，且 2025 年占進貨 10% 以上者以匿名 A 供應商揭露。
  • 精密加工、精密鑄造、精密鈑金沖壓供應商 年報產業關聯圖列為上游機電產業，提供高頻元件所需機構與精密加工能力；未揭露具名供應商。
  • 電鍍與表面塗裝供應商 年報列為上游化工產業，與微波／毫米波元件低損耗、高可靠度製程相關；未揭露具名公司。
  • 測試設備供應商 年報列向量網路分析儀等測試設備為上游測試服務／設備環節；未揭露具名公司。
Downstream
  • SpaceX／Starlink 美國未上市公司；多家外部新聞與券商文章稱昇達科供應 SpaceX 低軌衛星高頻微波／毫米波與波導元件，但公司年報僅以匿名客戶揭露，未具名確認。
  • Amazon Project Kuiper Amazon 旗下低軌衛星計畫，美國上市母公司但非台股；外部報導稱昇達科直接或間接供貨 Kuiper，年報未具名確認。
  • Blue Origin 美國未上市太空公司；外部報導提及昇達科切入相關低軌或太空供應鏈，年報未具名確認。
  • AST SpaceMobile 美國上市公司但非台股；外部報導提及昇達科切入其低軌衛星供應鏈，年報未具名確認。
  • 衛星地面站、通訊設備與電信營運商 年報說明公司產品供應給無線通訊系統製造商、衛星地面收發機、衛星通訊酬載與無線網路接取設備，最終服務電信營運商或終端用戶；多數未具名。

Competitors

  • 台揚 2314 台股上市公司，衛星通訊與微波通訊設備廠；屬低軌衛星／衛星微波供應鏈可比公司，產品定位與昇達科不完全相同。
  • 兆赫 2485 台股上市公司，通訊與寬頻設備相關；市場資料常列為衛星微波概念同業，與昇達科在產品細分上不完全相同。
  • 耀登 3138 台股上櫃公司，射頻天線、毫米波與通訊測試相關；在高頻通訊與低軌衛星題材上具可比性。
  • 寬宏藝術／寬頻相關同名資料需再核對 部分市場資料列 3116 寬頻為衛星微波競爭對手，但名稱與掛牌狀態需再以櫃買／證交所資料核對，保守列為低信心同業資料。
  • Comtech Systems 美國通訊系統與衛星／微波相關公司，非台股掛牌；第三方資料列為 UMT 國際可比競爭者。
  • 歐美微波／毫米波前端被動元件老牌供應商 公司年報稱主要競爭對手多為歐美 30 年以上歷史、原以軍工與國防應用為主的微波／毫米波前端通訊元件廠商，但未逐一具名。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.