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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 4766 南寶. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=4766
4766
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 南寶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 80th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.6%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 38th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 84th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.0% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +15% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰證券 has accumulated 284 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 309 lots, has sold 62%, 116 left, ~77 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.08pp, mid holders -3, retail +2.16pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,534 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰證券 +284
- 康和 +179
- 富邦-新店 +170
- 新光 +102
- 臺銀-金山 +100
- 群益金鼎 +100
Distributing
- 富邦證券 116 left
- 統一 158 left
- 台新 43 left
- 國票-安和 17 left
- 國泰-敦南 19 left
- 兆豐-天母 19 left
Desks
- 美商高盛 -1,080
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -835
- 元大證券 -381
- 凱基 -360
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 243 | +93.1% | +108.1% | 100% | +68.2% |
| 20-40 | 129 | +54.8% | +55.9% | 100% | +33% |
| 40-60 | 236 | +20.8% | +13.7% | 92.8% | -12.9% |
| 60-80 | 193 | +9.9% | +12.2% | 74.6% | -16.5% |
| 80-100 You are here | 37 | +1.1% | -0.3% | 48.6% | -5.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 17.73, at the 84.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 215 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.2%, win rate 36.3%, lagged the market by 24.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.45%, win rate 76.9%, beating the market by -2.12 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.22%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +1.55 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.83%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by -1.5 pts on average.
What does 南寶 do? Company profile
Overview
4766 對應證券為南寶，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1963/10/02，總部位於台南市西港區中山路519號，2018/11/28掛牌上市。董事長為吳政賢，總經理/執行長為許明現；實收資本額約新台幣12.057億元，已發行普通股120,570,780股。2025年合併營收232.00億元、營業利益38.16億元、稅後淨利26.45億元、EPS 20.25元；2025年底員工3,549人，2026/03/31為3,575人。前十大股東包含鼎峰投資9.24%、銓德投資8.35%、廣榮投資7.35%、裕典科技6.83%、寶望投資6.60%、博科發展投資專戶6.51%、寶建企業4.91%、元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶3.59%、慶霖國際發展3.08%、瀚星投資1.90%。公司在泰國、中國大陸、印尼、越南、澳洲、馬來西亞、印度、孟加拉等地有生產或投資布局；官方資料稱其為台灣第一大接著劑品牌、全球第一大鞋用膠供應商。
Business
南寶主要從事合成橡膠、合成樹脂及塑膠、工業助劑、塗料/油漆/染料/顏料等製造。2025年營收結構：接著劑161.53億元、占69.62%；塗料17.72億元、占7.64%；其他52.75億元、占22.74%。接著劑應用於運動鞋材與服飾、工業用、木工、紡織、包裝、電子製程保護膜、偏光片保護膜、車載偏光片PSA、晶圓切割用UV解黏PSA等；塗料包含粉體塗料、液體塗料、工業塗料、建材化學、地坪、防水、隔音地坪、食品罐塗裝等。2025年銷售地區：亞洲67.04%、台灣16.03%、大洋洲14.79%、其他2.14%。商業模式以配方研發、客製化材料、品牌/代工廠共同開發、駐廠技術服務與全球在地生產供應為核心；下游客戶涵蓋國際運動品牌、鞋類OEM/ODM、紡織、木工、包裝、營建、電子與半導體材料鏈。公司揭露最近兩年無單一供應商或客戶占進貨/銷貨總額10%以上。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028展望重點包括：1. 鞋材接著劑維持核心地位，透過水性、低VOC、零VOC、符合品牌RSL/ZDHC的環保材料，以及印度、東南亞等在地產能擴充，承接全球鞋業供應鏈移轉與品牌滲透率提升。2. 高值化第二成長曲線來自電子與半導體材料，研發聚焦電子級PSA、耐高溫感壓膠、UV解黏膠、晶圓處理樹脂、先進封裝材料、低介電樹脂、高頻高速FCCL/LCP材料、Micro LED與量子點光阻相關材料；2026年法說與新聞指出新寶紘合作進展順利，半導體用膠將認列本業營收，並籌備下一階段產能擴充。3. 建材與塗料受惠公共工程、老屋整建、AI伺服器機櫃與半導體建廠需求，產品往水性、粉體、節能、防腐、低碳與綠建材發展。4. 永續產品長期目標包含生質、回收、CO2-based、水性、無溶劑材料，並提升永續材料應用占比；公司設定2050淨零。5. 主要風險為原油與高分子單體造成原料價格波動、價格競爭、進口品牌競爭、PFAS/VOC/SVHC等環保法規成本、全球關稅與地緣政治、鞋類終端消費景氣、半導體新材料認證時間與量產爬坡不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 國內外化工原料供應商 年報揭露主要原物料包括己二酸、香蕉水、丁二醇、甲基乙基酮、VAE乳膠、醋酸乙烯、甲苯、氫化石油樹脂、六亞甲基二異氰酸酯、氯丁橡膠等；公司表示均由國內外優良大廠供應且每項有二家以上來源，但未揭露供應商名稱。
- 長春集團 台灣未上市化工集團，生產多種樹脂、溶劑與化學中間體；列為南寶上游原料類型的可能供應生態系，未確認為直接供應商。
- 台塑 1301 台股上市石化與塑膠原料公司，屬南寶所處合成樹脂/接著劑產業上游原料供應生態系；未確認為南寶直接供應商。
- 台化 1326 台股上市石化、芳香烴與塑膠材料公司，屬上游化工原料生態系；未確認為南寶直接供應商。
- 國喬 1312 台股上市石化材料公司，產品涵蓋苯乙烯、ABS等上游材料，屬化工材料供應生態系；未確認為南寶直接供應商。
- 寶成工業 9904 台股上市全球大型運動鞋與休閒鞋OEM/ODM集團，官方稱為Nike、adidas、Asics、New Balance、Salomon等品牌代工；媒體報導寶成為南寶鞋膠客戶並具供應鏈股權關係。
- 豐泰 9910 台股上市運動鞋代工廠，長期為Nike等品牌製鞋；媒體報導豐泰為南寶鞋膠重要客戶。
- 志強-KY 6768 台股上市運動鞋代工/足球鞋供應鏈公司，屬南寶鞋用膠下游應用產業；未確認為南寶直接客戶。
- 來億-KY 6890 台股上市運動鞋代工公司，屬南寶鞋用膠下游應用產業；未確認為南寶直接客戶。
- Nike 美國上市國際運動品牌，年報新產品項目直接列示NIKE相關水性處理劑與Zoomx處理劑；南寶亦稱與多家國際運動品牌共同開發，媒體多次報導Nike供應鏈關係。
- adidas 德國上市國際運動品牌，為全球運動鞋主要品牌與台灣鞋廠重要終端客戶；屬南寶鞋膠終端應用品牌，未由南寶年報列為單一客戶。
- 新寶紘科技 未上市公司；南寶與新應材、信紘科共同投資，聚焦半導體先進封裝高階膠材，南寶供應半導體用膠予其並認列本業營收。
Competitors
- Henkel Adhesive Technologies 德國上市Henkel集團旗下接著劑事業，全球接著劑領導廠商；在工業、電子、汽車、包裝與鞋材相關膠材與南寶部分產品競爭。
- H.B. Fuller 美國上市接著劑公司，全球接著劑大廠，與南寶在工業膠、包裝膠、建材膠等市場具競爭關係。
- Bostik / Arkema Bostik為法國上市Arkema集團旗下接著劑品牌，全球接著劑競爭者；非台股掛牌。
- Nippon Paint / 立邦塗料 日本/新加坡系全球塗料品牌，台灣亦有營運，與南寶塗料、建築塗料與工業塗料部分競爭；非台股掛牌。
- 永記造漆 1726 台股上市塗料公司，品牌虹牌，與南寶在台灣建築塗料、工業塗料、防腐塗料等部分市場競爭。
- 長興材料 1717 台股上市合成樹脂、電子材料與特用材料公司，與南寶在合成樹脂、電子材料、塗料/接著劑上游或相鄰材料領域部分競爭。
- 三芳化學 1307 台股上市鞋材與合成皮相關材料公司，非直接接著劑同業，但同屬運動鞋材料供應鏈，與南寶在鞋材供應鏈中部分材料解決方案相鄰。
- 上緯投控 3708 台股上市樹脂與複合材料公司，與南寶在高分子樹脂、複合材料、新能源與工業材料應用上部分相鄰競爭。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.