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5498

凱崴 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 凱崴 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 凱崴 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.0%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.5% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 86.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.34

BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

Distribution to retail — bearish
富邦-建國 holds 1,652 lots
sellers have 1,252 lots left, ~88 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 富邦-建國 has accumulated 1,652 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
Main distributor 元大-中壢 peaked at 1,042 lots, has sold 73%, 283 left, ~88 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -5.40pp, mid holders -7, retail +5.51pp — drifting down to retail.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -16,844 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

富邦-建國聯邦-忠孝美好-市政台新-五權西富邦-陽明元大-館前

Distributing

元大-中壢永豐金-敦北富邦-南屯永豐金證券新光國泰證券

Desks

own scale

美商高盛美林港商野村凱基-台北

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

富邦-建國 +1,652

sold 2%· still adding
聯邦-忠孝 +852

sold 0%
美好-市政 +560

sold 0%
台新-五權西 +389

sold 0%
富邦-陽明 +355

sold 0%· still adding
元大-館前 +343

sold 6%

Distributing

元大-中壢 283 left

sold 73%· ~88 sessions to clear
永豐金-敦北 421 left

sold 58%· paused recently
富邦-南屯 291 left

sold 57%· paused recently
永豐金證券 235 left

sold 57%· paused recently
新光 199 left

sold 61%· ~54 sessions to clear
國泰證券 94 left

sold 80%· ~14 sessions to clear

Desks

美商高盛 -5,180

hedge desk · will cover
美林 -2,785

hedge desk · will cover
港商野村 -2,370

hedge desk · will cover
凱基-台北 -1,958

day-trade · selling pressure

Still selling 1,252 lots ~88 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +2,124 absorbed / -434 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -14,708 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 86.31%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

74 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +11.33%

20-day +1.65%

60-day +6.62%

120-day +11.33%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

53.4%

42.9%

37.7%

Sample

Median

+0.97%

-0.67%

-6.38%

Excess

+0.06%

+1.4%

+2.66%

Beat mkt rate

41.4%

26.8%

22.6%

Over 53 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.33%, beat the market by 2.66 pts; win rate 37.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +43.1%

20-40 +2.7%

40-60 +0.8%

60-80 +20.6%

80-100 +14.5% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	455	+43.1%	+32%	69%	+10.6%
20-40	606	+2.7%	-7.8%	44.2%	-4.5%
40-60	369	+0.8%	-2.4%	49.1%	-7.4%
60-80	124	+20.6%	+22.4%	83.1%	+0.6%
80-100 You are here	392	+14.5%	+14.3%	74.7%	-4.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 553.33, at the 98.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+10.6%

Win rate 57.4% Excess -3%

392d

-6%

Win rate 32.7% Excess -5.1%

339d

Now

+1%

Win rate 47.5% Excess -7%

278d

60-day momentum down

+27.8%

Win rate 54.1% Excess +13.6%

514d

+10.3%

Win rate 68.3% Excess +7.9%

306d

+16.5%

Win rate 82.5% Excess +4.2%

223d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 278 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1%, win rate 47.5%, lagged the market by 7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.85%, win rate 64.7%, beating the market by +7.6 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.89%, win rate 46.9%, beating the market by -0.01 pts on average.

What does 凱崴 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；PCB鑽針、銅箔基板代理與PCB鑽孔代工上櫃

Overview

5498 對應證券為上櫃普通股「凱崴」，公司全名凱崴電子股份有限公司，英文名 KEY WARE ELECTRONICS CO., LTD.。公司成立於1997年2月27日，1999年6月25日公開發行，2001年3月29日上櫃，總部位於桃園市桃園區大林里21鄰興邦路32號。董事長為周邦基，總經理/發言人為初從維，代理發言人為李雲婷，簽證會計師事務所為勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為宏遠證券。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣19.32億至19.35億元，已發行普通股約1.93億股；截至2025年2月28日，員工總數371人。2024年年報揭露董事與主要法人股東包括嘉鉅投資、協和財務、吉善投資、劉玲君、漢勳投資、民鉅投資等，其中嘉鉅投資持股約5.80%，其代表人周邦基另持股約2.39%，配偶持股約0.45%。集團主要子公司/關係企業涵蓋台灣凱德精密、嘉志、滬崴雷射，以及海外 Key Ware International、昆山滬崴、深圳滬崴、武漢滬崴、湖北滬崴、昆山凱崴、重慶凱崴、Key Ware Electronics (Thailand) 等。

Business

凱崴是PCB製程耗材與加工服務公司，主要業務為印刷電路板專用全尺寸鑽針、銑刀、鍍膜刀具之製造銷售，PCB雷射鑽孔、機械鑽孔、成型與電測代工，以及銅箔基板與鑽孔耗材代理/銷售。2024年主要營收結構為鑽頭/鑽針新台幣5.655億元、占48.62%；鑽孔代工4.365億元、占37.53%；銅箔基板1.611億元、占13.85%，合計營收11.6305億元。產品/服務包括PCB切削刀具、南亞銅箔基板代理、鋁蓋板/下墊板等鑽孔耗材代理與鑽針研磨技術服務、機械鑽孔/機械成型/雷射鑽孔/電測代工。主要原料為碳化鎢棒材、不鏽鋼接合柄/棒材；2024年年報揭露碳化鎢棒材供應商包含 AXIS，不鏽鋼接合柄供應商包含 Tai Yu Sheng，且主要採購來源也有匿名供應商A/B。銷售區域以台灣為主，2024年內銷約89.31%，亞洲外銷約10.66%，歐洲約0.03%。公司自估台灣廠月銷約400萬支鑽針，中國昆山與重慶合計約800萬支，集團合計月銷約1200萬支；若以全球月需求約1.2億支估算，全球市占約10%，台灣內需市占約30%。主要客戶與終端應用為PCB廠、HDI/高階載板、伺服器板、AI/HPC、5G、低軌衛星、車用板、智慧型手機、平板、筆電、遊戲機、工控、通訊設備、IC載板與LED散熱基板等。年報提及公司為金像電、建滔、敬鵬、欣興、南亞、瀚宇博等主要PCB廠供應商，但2024年銷售客戶無單一客戶超過10%，2023年則有匿名Customer A占14.53%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在AI伺服器、高階HDI、ABF/BT載板、低軌衛星、車用電子與高頻高速材料帶動的鑽孔耗材與代工需求。公司2024年年報指出，雲端服務商資本支出與主權AI建置推升AI伺服器及AI Edge需求，進而拉動高階HDI；低軌衛星因發射成本下降亦為正向趨勢。公司預期2025年鑽針/刀具銷售成長20%至30%，代工服務在2024年高基期上再成長30%至50%，各類板材出貨維持高檔。產品端規劃包含高深寬比鍍膜鑽針、背鑽針、ABF載板用0.15mm以下微鑽針、FPC高排屑/寬溝/斷屑鍍膜鑽針，並提高0.20mm以下微鑽產品訂單占比至營收60%以上、良率目標95%。中期策略是布局高頻產品所需高深寬比微鑽、背鑽、耐磨高排屑鍍膜產品，建立高階HDI與IC載板雷射/機械鑽孔能力，量產Shank 2.0高速鑽孔微鑽，強化東南亞鑽針生產與鑽孔代工接單。產能方面，公開新聞指出凱崴2025年合計月產能約1500萬支，規劃2026年第1季前擴充至2000萬支以上，泰國新廠導入鑽孔代工與部分鑽針產能，以服務台系客戶並降低地緣政治風險。2026年營收初步顯示復甦，公開月營收資料顯示2026年5月單月營收約2.03億元、年增86.32%，2026年前5月累計營收約8.22億元、年增57.82%。2025至2028主要風險包括：鎢礦/碳化鎢供應與價格上升、中國出口管制與日本供應商漲價減量、客戶認證與高階產品放量不如預期、新產能稼動率爬升不順、毛利率受產品組合與原料成本壓縮、美元與日圓匯率波動、利率與短期借款成本、AI/車用/衛星需求循環波動、關稅與地緣政治變數。2024年營收雖年增8.87%至11.63億元且毛利轉正，但稅前淨利僅65.4萬元，2025年合併財報公告全年營收14.08億元、歸母淨損61.8萬元、EPS約0元，顯示營收成長是否能轉化為穩定獲利仍需觀察。

Supply Chain

Upstream

AXIS 年報揭露為碳化鎢棒材供應商；非台股上市櫃公司或未能確認台股掛牌，stock_id設為null。
Tai Yu Sheng Co., Ltd. 年報揭露為不鏽鋼接合把柄供應商；未能確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id設為null。
南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 凱崴代理/銷售南亞銅箔基板，屬銅箔基板來源與上游材料關係；南亞為台股上市公司。
匿名供應商A/B/C 2024年年報採匿名方式揭露主要採購供應商，供應商A占21.84%、供應商B占21.60%；其中供應商B為關係人，但公開文本未揭露正式名稱。
碳化鎢、不鏽鋼棒材與鑽孔耗材供應商凱崴核心鑽針原料包含碳化鎢棒材、不鏽鋼接合柄/棒材，鑽孔製程耗材包含鋁蓋板、下墊板等；多數未揭露公司名稱。

Downstream

金像電子股份有限公司 2368 年報英文列示為主要國內PCB客戶之一；此處依PCB產業常見對應推定為金像電，需以公司後續揭露確認。
欣興電子股份有限公司 3037 年報列示 Unimicron 為主要國內PCB客戶之一，為PCB/載板下游客戶。
敬鵬工業股份有限公司 2355 年報列示 Jinko/敬鵬相關名稱為主要國內PCB客戶之一，為車用/工業PCB下游客戶；英文轉寫需再確認。
南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 年報列示 Nanya 為主要國內PCB相關客戶之一，南亞集團亦為銅箔基板與PCB材料/板材供應鏈參與者。
瀚宇博德股份有限公司 5469 年報列示 Hanwa/HannStar Board 相關名稱為主要國內PCB客戶之一；為PCB下游客戶，英文轉寫需再確認。
建滔集團年報列示 Kingboard 為主要客戶之一；香港上市/非台股掛牌，stock_id設為null。
匿名Customer A及其他PCB客戶 2023年Customer A占銷售14.53%，2024年無單一客戶超過10%，公司未揭露正式名稱；主要為PCB、HDI、IC載板、伺服器板、車用板、低軌衛星板等製造商。

Competitors

尖點科技股份有限公司 8021 台股上市PCB精密鑽針、銑刀與鑽孔加工同業，為凱崴最直接可比競爭者之一。
大量科技股份有限公司 3167 台股上市PCB鑽孔/成型設備與自動化設備廠，與凱崴在高階PCB鑽孔製程投資週期中具間接競爭與互補關係。
高僑自動化科技股份有限公司 6234 台股上櫃自動化與PCB相關設備廠，MoneyDJ列為競爭對手之一；與凱崴鑽孔/製程設備鏈有間接競爭關係。
創國精密股份有限公司 MoneyDJ列為凱崴競爭對手之一；未能確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id設為null。
Union Tool Co. 日本PCB鑽針/精密工具廠，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為國外競爭對手。
Tungaloy / Toshiba Tungaloy 日本切削工具相關廠商，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為國外競爭對手。
鎧鉅科技股份有限公司股感同業分類列為其他PCB材料競爭公司，但與凱崴核心鑽針業務的直接可比性低於尖點。
榮科材料股份有限公司 4989 台股上櫃PCB材料鏈公司，股感同業分類列為競爭者；主要偏材料，與凱崴屬PCB上游材料/耗材鏈間接同業。

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.