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6505

台塑化 Oil, Gas & Electricity As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台塑化 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 61Quality 81Growth 71Momentum 44Chips 88

Is 台塑化 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 75th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 41th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 34th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 26.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.01
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 摩根大通 holds 13,361 lots
  • sellers have 6,242 lots left, ~2130 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 13,361 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美林 peaked at 5,264 lots, has sold 49%, 2,683 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.50pp, mid holders -4, retail +0.48pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -11,764 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀群益金鼎凱基-台北永豐金證券台新-嘉義
Distributing
美林元大證券國泰-敦南中國信託-文心統一新光
Desks
own scale
國泰證券凱基宏遠證券國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +13,361
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +8,241
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +4,249
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +2,552
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +1,539
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-嘉義 +991
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美林 2,683 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 886 left
    sold 80%· ~554 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 2,110 left
    sold 46%· ~117 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託-文心 778 left
    sold 53%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 統一 330 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 新光 647 left
    sold 55%· ~22 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -12,697
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -12,478
    unclassified
  • 宏遠證券 -5,039
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -3,715
    unclassified
Still selling 6,242 lots ~2130 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +6,895 absorbed / -2,825 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -11,291 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 26.87%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

82 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 67, Median -0.47%, Excess +0.71%, Beat mkt rate 55.2%；60-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 66, Median -0.46%, Excess +0.92%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 27.3%, Sample 66, Median -6.68%, Excess -1.05%, Beat mkt rate 36.4%

120 days after: historical avg -4.25%

20-day +0.23%
60-day -0.27%
120-day -4.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.8%
45.5%
27.3%
Sample
67
66
66
Median
-0.47%
-0.46%
-6.68%
Excess
+0.71%
+0.92%
-1.05%
Beat mkt rate
55.2%
54.5%
36.4%

Over 66 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.25%, lagged the market by 1.05 pts; win rate 27.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 680+9% +12.4% 72.8% -3.5%
20-40 You are here449-2.5% -3.6% 33.9% -5.6%
40-60 370-2.4% -5.6% 37.6% -14.1%
60-80 560-2.7% -9.9% 33.4% -19.7%
80-100 664+2.3% +6.6% 59.9% -30.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.85, at the 34.0th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5%
Win rate 70.7% Excess +0.5%
553d
-5.3%
Win rate 22.6% Excess -9.2%
310d
+4.5%
Win rate 57.2% Excess -13.6%
565d
60-day momentum down
+4.6%
Win rate 72.3% Excess -2.1%
372d
Now
-8.4%
Win rate 33% Excess -13%
581d
+6.3%
Win rate 51.1% Excess -8.3%
462d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 581 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 8.4%, win rate 33%, lagged the market by 13%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.23%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by -3.79 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.21%, win rate 52.8%, beating the market by -3.15 pts on average.

What does 台塑化 do? Company profile

油電燃氣業 TWSE

Overview

6505 對應證券為台塑石化股份有限公司，證交所上市普通股，簡稱台塑化。公司成立於 1992-04-06，上市日期為 2003-12-26，總部登記於台北市內湖區南京東路六段380號(A2棟)4樓；董事長曹明，總經理兼發言人林克彥。證交所 2026-06-16 出表公司基本資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣95,259,596,520元，已發行普通股9,525,959,652股，英文簡稱 FPCC。112年度年報揭露員工人數為5,208人，平均年齡44.25歲、平均服務年資16.41年。主要股東依年報 2024-04-16 資料：台灣塑膠工業28.55%、台灣化學纖維24.15%、南亞塑膠工業23.10%、長庚醫療財團法人5.78%、福懋興業3.83%；前三大股東均為台塑企業核心上市公司，股權高度集中於集團關係人。2025年台塑企業經營概況揭露台塑化2025年合併營收626,159,096千元、合併營業利益10,878,946千元、合併稅前利益12,712,220千元、EPS 1.04元；公開資訊觀測站開放資料顯示2026年第1季營業收入161,989,437千元、營業利益24,513,957千元、稅後淨利20,406,610千元、基本EPS 2.14元。

Business

台塑化是台灣唯一民營大型煉油業者，核心業務為煉油油品、石化基本原料與公用流體。主要產品包括輕油、汽油、柴油、航空燃油、燃料油、液化石油氣、基礎油、乙烯、丙烯、丁二烯、裂解汽油、電力與蒸汽，並經營油品及石化原料儲運、麥寮工業專用港碼頭裝卸等。112年度年報營業比重為：汽油、柴油等石油製品74.6%，乙烯、丙烯等石油化學品18.3%，電力與蒸汽6.7%，其他0.4%。商業模式上，煉油事業進口原油並於麥寮煉製後內銷台灣汽柴油、航空燃油與LPG，也出口汽油、柴油、航燃、基礎油等至東南亞、東北亞、南亞、中東、非洲、歐洲、紐澳、北美等市場；石化基本原料事業以輕油/LPG裂解產出乙烯、丙烯、丁二烯等，供應麥寮園區下游台塑、南亞、台化等集團客戶，並視價差外銷；公用流體事業提供麥寮園區電力與蒸汽，亦有餘電回售台電。112年國內汽柴油市場占有率約22.4%，乙烯市場占有率約62.3%；2025年加油站市占率維持22.3%，台塑石油APP會員至2025年底達73萬名。2025年平均日煉量44.7萬桶，較2024年增加9.8%；外銷汽油2,925千公秉、柴油8,792千公秉，航空燃油銷售較2024年增加14.9%，整體油品外銷量較2024年成長10.7%。石化基本原料受中國新增產能與亞洲供給過剩衝擊，2025年產能利用率由52%提高至60%但仍虧損擴大；公用流體受煤價下跌與調度改善帶動，2025年利益額較2024年成長15.9%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已驗證的營運主軸為煉油事業復甦、公用流體支撐獲利、石化基本原料仍承壓。2026年公司銷售目標為汽油5,870千公秉、柴油9,928千公秉，永續航空燃油仍以供應國籍航空公司5,500公噸為目標，待回收廢食用油設備完工後提升SAF產量；APP會員數目標為2026年底100萬名。石化產品2026年預計銷售乙烯2,145千噸、丙烯1,714千噸、丁二烯294千噸，策略為依市場動態優化產銷配置、多元進料降低成本、整合集團下游以提高產能利用率，並在價差有利時出口。2025-2028年主要成長動能包括：全球老舊煉廠關閉與地緣政治使成品油庫存偏低時帶來煉油價差支撐；國際旅遊與航空需求帶動航燃與SAF；台塑企業麥寮垂直整合、深水港與自有公用流體降低物流與供應風險；低碳能源轉型、廢食用油共煉SAF、LNG專用碼頭與節能減碳投資有助因應碳費與低碳供應鏈。主要風險包括：OPEC+增產、美國頁岩油與全球景氣波動導致油價與庫存損益波動；中國與中東新增煉化產能造成亞洲乙烯、丙烯、丁二烯與油品供給過剩；中國內需復甦不確定與關稅壁壘壓抑石化需求；電動車與油電車滲透率提高使台灣汽油需求長期下滑；原油、輕油、燃煤皆需進口，受匯率、運費與地緣政治影響；台灣碳費、空污許可與能源轉型增加成本。2027-2028的具體數字目標未在已查得公開資料中完整揭露，故展望屬基於2025/2026公開資料與產業趨勢的審慎推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 沙烏地石油／Saudi Aramco 主要原油供應來源之一；112年度年報列為最大進貨客戶，採購占進貨淨額27.79%。非台股掛牌公司。
  • 科威特石油／Kuwait Petroleum 主要原油供應來源之一；112年度年報列為第二大進貨客戶，採購占進貨淨額21.05%。非台股掛牌公司。
  • 阿布達比石油／ADNOC 中東原油供應商之一；年報列示為主要進貨對象。非台股掛牌公司。
  • TOTALENERGIES 國際石油公司與交易對手，112年度主要進貨對象之一。法國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • TRAFIGURA 國際能源與大宗商品交易商，112年度主要進貨對象之一。未於台股掛牌。
  • SHELL 國際石油公司，112年度主要進貨對象之一。英國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 台塑企業關係人；年報列示為進貨對象之一，同時也是石化原料主要下游客戶。
Downstream
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 麥寮園區中下游石化業者與集團關係人，採購乙烯、丙烯等石化基本原料；112年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額11.59%。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 麥寮園區中下游石化業者與集團關係人，為最大銷貨客戶；112年度占銷貨淨額19.60%。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 麥寮園區中下游石化業者與集團關係人，採購石化基本原料；112年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額3.04%。
  • 全國加油站股份有限公司 9937 油品銷售通路客戶，112年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額3.01%。
  • 長榮航空股份有限公司 2618 航空燃油客戶，112年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額2.50%。
  • 台亞石油股份有限公司 台塑化油品通路與被投資公司；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • VITOL 國際能源貿易商，為油品外銷與交易客戶；112年度主要銷貨客戶，占銷貨淨額10.84%。非台股掛牌。
  • WINSON BUNKER／WINSON 船用燃油與油品貿易客戶；年報列示為主要銷貨對象。非台股掛牌。
  • PTT 泰國能源集團，年報列示為主要銷貨對象。泰國上市公司，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 國營事業，台灣煉油與油品供應主要競爭者；國內煉油市場主要由台塑化與台灣中油兩家公司供應。未上市。
  • 中國石油化工股份有限公司／Sinopec 中國大型煉化與石化業者，亞洲成品油與石化品供給競爭來源；非台股掛牌。
  • Reliance Industries 印度大型煉化業者，亞洲油品外銷市場競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • PTT Global Chemical／PTT 集團 泰國煉化與石化業者，於東南亞油品與石化市場具競爭關係；非台股掛牌。
  • 中國石油化學工業開發股份有限公司 1314 台股石化公司，與台塑化在部分石化原料與下游鏈條存在間接競爭，但非大型煉油同業。
  • 台灣聚合化學品股份有限公司 1304 台股石化下游公司，與台塑化下游客戶鏈及部分石化產品市場有間接競爭；非煉油同業。
Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.