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6515

穎崴 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 穎崴 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 93Growth 93Momentum 86Chips 26

Is 穎崴 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.8%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 95th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.6% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 119.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.49
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 富邦證券 holds 369 lots
  • sellers have 273 lots left, ~40 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +173% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 369 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 279 lots, has sold 68%, 89 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.26pp, mid holders -1, retail +4.19pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -458 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
富邦證券華南永昌凱基-台北宏遠證券玉山證券永豐金證券
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球凱基-站前美林摩根大通凱基
Desks
own scale
元大-莒光新加坡商瑞銀元大證券永豐金-匯立
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 富邦證券 +369
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 華南永昌 +197
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +158
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 宏遠證券 +87
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +84
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +76
    sold 25%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 89 left
    sold 68%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 94 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 凱基-站前 95 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 美林 24 left
    sold 83%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 56 left
    sold 57%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 21 left
    sold 82%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-莒光 -279
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -277
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -238
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-匯立 -133
    unclassified
Still selling 273 lots ~40 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +498 absorbed / -291 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -451 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 119.79%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

49 historical occurrences (since 2021-01-20)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 62.2%, Sample 37, Median +6.87%, Excess +6.68%, Beat mkt rate 64.9%；60-day: Win 65.7%, Sample 35, Median +12.18%, Excess +20.12%, Beat mkt rate 74.3%；120-day: Win 69.7%, Sample 33, Median +8.37%, Excess +32.29%, Beat mkt rate 72.7%

120 days after: historical avg +38.94%

20-day +7.74%
60-day +23.12%
120-day +38.94%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.2%
65.7%
69.7%
Sample
37
35
33
Median
+6.87%
+12.18%
+8.37%
Excess
+6.68%
+20.12%
+32.29%
Beat mkt rate
64.9%
74.3%
72.7%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 38.94%, beat the market by 32.29 pts; win rate 69.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 9Insufficient data
40-60 48+878.1% +828.1% 100% +779.9%
60-80 22Insufficient data
80-100 You are here242+78% +50.5% 94.6% +60.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 193.65, at the 97.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
+205.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +172.3%
58d
Now
+87.3%
Win rate 72.8% Excess +72.7%
261d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(6d)
+155.2%
Win rate 100% Excess +120.6%
47d
+25.5%
Win rate 66.7% Excess +21.1%
69d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 261 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 87.3%, win rate 72.8%, beat the market by 72.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +24.15%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +19.76 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +25.38%, win rate 73.9%, beating the market by +17.69 pts on average.

What does 穎崴 do? Company profile

半導體業；半導體測試介面、測試治具、探針卡與溫控模組 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6515 對應證券為穎崴，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司於2001年在高雄成立，總部地址為高雄市楠梓區創意南路68號，董事長兼總經理為王嘉煌，發言人為陳紹焜。公司於2021-01-20上市，鉅亨網資料顯示資本額約新台幣3.6億元；2025年度合併財報列示普通股股本為新台幣360,416千元。公司定位為全球IC測試重要供應商，於北美、中國、東南亞等地設銷售、服務或生產據點，2025年新增馬來西亞子公司。主要股東依公司官網114年04月20日資料包括：和威投資股份有限公司9.76%、李振昆3.99%、力親投資股份有限公司3.23%、劉燈桂3.11%、花旗受託保管挪威中央銀行外部經理人標線資產管理亞洲有限公司投資專戶3.01%、新制勞工退休基金101年第2次全權委託野村投資專戶2.99%、力本國際2.94%、力全興業2.94%、威程投資2.44%、王嘉煌1.79%。員工規模方面，公司年報PDF文字擷取不完整；公開媒體於2026年報導王嘉煌表示員工約1,200人，2026年仍將招募200至300人，此數字非年報表格直接擷取，採中等信心。2025年合併營收新台幣78.57179億元、營業利益20.69595億元、本期淨利16.72872億元、基本EPS 46.93元，營收及獲利較2024年再成長。

Business

穎崴為半導體測試介面供應商，產品用於晶圓測試、最終測試、系統級測試與老化測試等環節，主要收入來自測試治具與接觸元件，近年快速擴大探針卡業務。2025年度外部客戶收入結構為：Test Socket新台幣44.01474億元，約56.0%；Probe Card新台幣23.06741億元，約29.4%；Contact Element新台幣8.16958億元，約10.4%；其他新台幣3.32006億元，約4.2%。2026年前4個月法說資料顯示產品組合更偏高階：Coaxial Socket 46%、Probe Card 27%、PoP & Plastic Socket 15%、Contact Element 7%、Burn-in Socket 2%、其他3%；終端應用為HPC & AI 68%、智慧手機8%、PC & Gaming 2%、Networking/Auto/Others 22%。商業模式為依IC設計、CSP、IDM、晶圓代工與封測客戶之封裝、功耗、頻寬、測試時間與量產導入需求，提供高度客製化測試座、探針、探針卡、溫控系統與相關治具，並透過全球FAE與維修服務支援客戶研發驗證到量產。公司2025年主要客戶以匿名揭露，三大主要客戶甲、丁、庚客戶合計收入42.68161億元，約佔2025合併營收54.3%，顯示客戶集中度高；2026年前4個月法說揭露北美客戶佔81%、台灣12%、中國7%，客戶類型包含AI、HPC、ASIC、CPU、GPU、AP、IC Design、CSP、Foundry、OSAT與IDM。核心產品包括Coaxial Socket、HyperSocket、MEMS/Vertical Probe Card、Burn-in Socket、Spring Probe、E-Flux與HEATCon溫控/液冷解決方案，以及CPO相關光電測試介面。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司已受惠AI、HPC、ASIC需求，營收78.57億元、EPS 46.93元，Probe Card收入自2024年6.41億元大增至2025年23.07億元，成為第二成長曲線。2026年第一季營收29.80億元、淨利6.99億元、EPS 19.54元，分別較2025年第一季成長約30%、14%、14%；2026年1月公司公告高階測試座Coaxial Socket及垂直探針卡MEMS Probe Card需求強勁、產能滿載。2025至2028的主要成長動能包括：1. AI/HPC/ASIC晶片尺寸、腳位數、頻寬與功耗提升，推升高頻高速、超大封裝、高散熱測試介面需求；2. 先進封裝、CoWoS/CoPoS、Chiplet、SoIC與CPO使晶圓測試、最終測試與SLT測試時間增加，帶動測試座與探針卡耗材需求；3. 自製探針與Socket-All-in-house策略降低交期與成本，並改善毛利結構；4. HyperSocket、液冷Socket、E-Flux 6.0、CPO Double Sided Probing等新產品可提高單一客戶價值；5. 全球服務據點擴張，馬來西亞、蘇州、北美等據點有助於貼近客戶與OSAT生產基地。產能方面，公司已通過高雄仁武產業園區租地自建擴廠，資本預算約34.99億元；2026年5月KGI法說資料顯示Spring Probe月產能規劃自2026上半年600萬支、2026下半年900萬支，至2027上半年1,400萬支；Renwu Socket Facility I於2026年4月營運，Facility II預計2026-05-29動工、2027年第2季開始營運。2028年前的挑戰包括：主要客戶集中度高、北美AI/CSP客戶資本支出波動、AI晶片專案遞延或設計變更、探針與MEMS探針卡產能爬坡良率、研發與製造人才不足、地緣政治與關稅政策、各國半導體在地化造成供應鏈重組、同業價格與技術競爭，以及高股價評價下市場對成長不如預期的敏感度。2027至2028具體營收目標未見公司正式財測，部分媒體提及2027年挑戰百億元屬董事長公開展望或媒體轉述，非保證財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 甲公司 2024與2025年報揭露之最大供應商以匿名『甲公司』列示，2025年度進貨新台幣765,776千元、佔進貨淨額30.70%，主要供應製造測試介面產品所需探針；未揭露實名，無法判斷是否上市櫃。
  • 探針、精密金屬加工、電鍍與接觸材料供應商群 上游關鍵投入包括Spring Probe、微細金屬件、鍍金/電鍍、導電材料與精密加工；公司近年提高高雄自製探針比重以降低外部依賴，供應商多未具名揭露。
  • PCB、載板、Load Board與精密治具加工供應商群 測試座、探針卡與轉換治具需搭配PCB/載板設計、機構件與精密加工；年報未揭露具名上市櫃供應商，故以供應類別列示。
  • 半導體量測與自動化設備供應商群 公司建置高頻實驗室、VNA量測與探針組裝自動化設備，設備供應商未具名；此為研發、驗證與產能擴充所需上游。
Downstream
  • 北美高階IC設計、GPU/CPU/ASIC與CSP客戶群 2026年前4個月法說揭露北美客戶營收佔81%，終端應用涵蓋AI、HPC、ASIC、CPU、GPU與CSP；公司未具名揭露客戶，可能包含美國上市或未上市大型晶片與雲端業者，不能將個別公司列為已確認客戶。
  • 台灣晶圓代工與先進封裝生態系 年報稱持續與各區域Foundry及封測廠合作共同服務全球客戶；實際具名客戶未揭露。此類下游客戶/合作方承接AI/HPC先進製程、CoWoS、Chiplet、SoIC與CPO測試需求。
  • 台積電 2330 台股上市晶圓代工龍頭，屬AI/HPC先進製程與先進封裝核心生態系；穎崴年報僅稱與Foundry合作，未確認台積電為具名主要客戶，列為產業鏈推估關係。
  • 日月光投控 3711 台股上市封測龍頭，屬OSAT下游應用場域；穎崴法說與年報稱服務OSAT與封測廠，未具名揭露日月光為客戶，列為產業鏈推估關係。
  • 京元電子 2449 台股上市IC測試服務公司，屬AI/HPC晶片測試與量產導入相關下游生態；未見穎崴具名揭露其為客戶，列為產業鏈推估關係。
  • 中國、台灣與東南亞OSAT/IDM客戶群 2025收入地區分布包含美國40.29億元、中國18.31億元、台灣13.22億元、亞洲6.20億元；公司於蘇州、馬來西亞等地布局，服務封測、IDM與IC設計客戶，實名多未揭露。

Competitors

  • 旺矽科技股份有限公司 6223 台股上櫃公司，主要產品含探針卡、測試介面與半導體測試相關產品；在Probe Card與高階測試介面領域與穎崴有競爭或部分重疊。
  • 中華精測科技股份有限公司 6510 台股上市公司，主要產品含探針卡、Load Board、測試介面板等，與穎崴在晶圓測試/高階測試介面部分重疊。
  • 雍智科技股份有限公司 6683 台股上櫃公司，從事半導體測試介面、探針卡與相關測試解決方案，為台灣同業競爭者之一。
  • FormFactor, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市公司，全球探針卡與測試量測解決方案大廠；非台股掛牌，stock_id依規範填null。
  • Cohu, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市半導體測試設備與測試介面供應商，旗下含測試接觸器/介面產品；非台股掛牌。
  • Smiths Interconnect 國際測試插座、半導體測試介面與連接解決方案供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • ISC Co., Ltd. 韓國上市半導體測試Socket與測試解決方案廠商，非台股掛牌。
  • LEENO Industrial Inc. 韓國上市探針與測試Socket供應商，非台股掛牌。
  • Yamaichi Electronics Co., Ltd. 日本上市連接器與IC Socket/測試Socket供應商，非台股掛牌。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.