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8054

安國 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 安國 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 14Quality 23Growth 98Momentum 33Chips 34

Is 安國 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 23th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.7% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 382.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.36
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 福邦證券 holds 1,087 lots
  • sellers have 990 lots left, ~310 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 福邦證券 has accumulated 1,087 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 900 lots, has sold 59%, 369 left, ~53 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.14pp, mid holders -7, retail +3.69pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,570 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
福邦證券新加坡商瑞銀元大-大同第一金-新竹元大-佳里兆豐-天母
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利統一摩根大通國泰-板橋永豐金-台中美好-富順
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北元大-南屯富邦-竹科美林
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 福邦證券 +1,087
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +657
    sold 24%
  • 元大-大同 +243
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 第一金-新竹 +190
    sold 0%
  • 元大-佳里 +176
    sold 3%
  • 兆豐-天母 +151
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 369 left
    sold 59%· ~53 sessions to clear
  • 統一 186 left
    sold 74%· ~310 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 210 left
    sold 67%· ~175 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-板橋 238 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-台中 124 left
    sold 30%· paused recently
  • 美好-富順 92 left
    sold 35%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -908
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 元大-南屯 -848
    unclassified
  • 富邦-竹科 -551
    unclassified
  • 美林 -544
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 990 lots ~310 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +956 absorbed / -242 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,571 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 382.5%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

87 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.4%, Sample 61, Median +1.97%, Excess +3.33%, Beat mkt rate 49.2%；60-day: Win 40.7%, Sample 59, Median -3.89%, Excess -0.73%, Beat mkt rate 37.3%；120-day: Win 44.6%, Sample 56, Median -4.24%, Excess -0.83%, Beat mkt rate 33.9%

120 days after: historical avg +10.06%

20-day +4.81%
60-day +3.73%
120-day +10.06%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.4%
40.7%
44.6%
Sample
61
59
56
Median
+1.97%
-3.89%
-4.24%
Excess
+3.33%
-0.73%
-0.83%
Beat mkt rate
49.2%
37.3%
33.9%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.06%, lagged the market by 0.83 pts; win rate 44.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 130-0.4% -3.1% 40% -7.1%
20-40 385+7.5% -23.9% 22.9% +0.5%
40-60 491+52.6% +5.4% 57.4% +26.3%
60-80 273+33.1% +1.1% 56% +12.1%
80-100 You are here587+14.8% -0.6% 49.2% +1.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.47, at the 96.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+0.1%
Win rate 5.5% Excess +2.1%
164d
+13.6%
Win rate 31.5% Excess +0.7%
337d
+5.7%
Win rate 49.2% Excess -0.1%
362d
60-day momentum down
-9.5%
Win rate 14% Excess -12%
250d
-3.6%
Win rate 34% Excess -7.2%
476d
Now
+46.9%
Win rate 76.1% Excess +30.1%
397d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 397 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 46.9%, win rate 76.1%, beat the market by 30.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.51%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by +1.3 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.98%, win rate 44%, beating the market by +5.6 pts on average.

What does 安國 do? Company profile

半導體業／IC設計／ASIC設計服務與控制IC 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

8054 對應證券為安國國際科技股份有限公司，英文名 Alcor Micro, Corp.，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1999/11/23，2004/11/08 上櫃，總部位於臺北市南港區三重路66號9樓之1，另有新竹辦公室。董事長為羅森洲，總經理為陳建盛，發言人為蔡玲君。Yahoo 股市與公司官網資料顯示資本額約新台幣10.57億元至10.58億元，已發行普通股約1.0577億股；部分網站資料時間不同，曾出現106,232,566股與105,772,566股差異，本文採約略描述並於 notes 標示。主要股東與控制關係方面，神盾股份有限公司為安國母公司／所屬集團核心，公開資料顯示神盾持股約20.15%至20.37%，董監持股質押比率為0。公司 2024 年底完成與子公司星河半導體簡易合併，安國為存續公司，星河為消滅公司，以整合 ASIC 與 IP 設計資源。員工規模未在本次可查公開摘要中取得可明確驗證數字，故不填具體人數。

Business

安國原本以 USB、NAND Flash、記憶體與消費性產品控制IC、資訊與消費性週邊控制IC之研發、設計與銷售為主，近年在神盾入主後加速轉型為 IP 授權與 ASIC 設計服務公司。公司官網將解決方案定位為全方位 ASIC 設計服務，涵蓋前端設計、IP 設計、後段整合、晶圓代工解決方案、先進封裝解決方案、產品與可靠性工程、生產管理，並提供 AI 設計平台與無線平台。商業模式正由標準控制IC銷售，轉向 ASIC NRE／委託設計費、IP 授權與權利金、晶圓量產及後續生產管理收入。2025 年合併營收為新台幣28.80725億元，年增31.46%；2026 年 Q1 營收約17.03274億元，2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約26.27868億元，顯示先進製程專案已明顯拉升收入。營收結構方面，舊資料顯示 2022 年 USB 控制IC約占營收76%、無線音頻控制IC約24%，但 2025-2026 年公司轉型後，公開資料未提供完整產品別百分比；可確認的是 2025 年底至 2026 年營收增長主要來自 ASIC 晶圓量產、4奈米專案 NRE、挖礦晶片、伺服器／AI HPC 專案與 Arm 架構 CPU 平台相關設計服務。主要終端應用包括 AI、HPC、資料中心伺服器、邊緣AI、AI PC、工業物聯網、車用、醫療、電信與消費電子。客戶多未公開，新聞資料提及已有日、韓客戶、挖礦晶片客戶與伺服器專案，但未揭露具名客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年為安國轉型驗證期：公司 2024 年底合併星河半導體後，2025 年第4季營收達約9.86億元創歷史新高，全年營收28.8億元、年增31.46%；2025 年11月營收3.90484億元創高，主要受惠 ASIC 晶圓量產增加與4奈米專案開始貢獻 NRE。2026 年為放量關鍵期：公司公開表示收購星河效益顯現，挖礦及伺服器專案陸續貢獻，全年營收有望倍數增長；4奈米挖礦專案已向台積電下單，預計最快 2026 年第1季底或第2季初貢獻業績；3奈米伺服器專案可望於下半年貢獻業績。公司也在 2025 年 OCP 展示 Arm 架構 CSS V3／Mobius 100 類 CPU 平台，預計投片於台積電3奈米製程，面向 AI 與 HPC 伺服器、Chiplet 與 Arm-based CPU 解決方案。2027-2028 年展望取決於 3奈米／4奈米 ASIC 專案能否順利 tape-out、量產與擴大客戶數；若成功，安國可從一次性 NRE 進一步轉為晶圓量產、IP 權利金與平台化設計服務收入，營收能見度與毛利結構可能改善。主要風險包括：先進製程 tape-out 失敗或時程延遲、NRE 與量產收入認列波動大、單一或少數專案／客戶集中度高、Arm IP 授權與先進製程研發費用攤提壓力、台積電產能與先進封裝資源取得不確定、挖礦晶片需求受加密貨幣景氣波動影響、AI/HPC ASIC 競爭者包含創意、世芯、智原及國際設計服務公司，且安國仍處轉型期，短期獲利能力尚未完全穩定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工上游；公開新聞提及安國4奈米挖礦專案已向台積電下單，3奈米伺服器／CPU平台專案亦規劃投片於台積電先進製程。
  • Arm／安謀 英國半導體矽智財公司，非台股掛牌；安國取得 Arm 軟體及矽智財授權，並加入 Arm Total Design 生態系，支援 Arm CSS V3／AI HPC 晶片平台。
  • 星河半導體 原為未上市 ASIC 與 IP 授權相關公司；安國 2023 年投資、2024 年底完成簡易合併，作為安國轉型 IP／ASIC 設計服務的重要技術來源。
  • 神盾 6462 母公司與策略資源來源；神盾投資安國並共同加入 Arm Total Design，協助安國轉向 AI、HPC、ASIC 與 IP 設計服務。
  • 安格科技 6684 神盾／安國集團相關公司，深耕高速介面、Type-C、影像與SoC相關IP／IC設計；與安國在集團 ASIC 與 AI 生態系中具互補關係。
Downstream
  • AI／HPC伺服器客戶 多數客戶未公開具名；安國 CSS V3／Arm-based CPU Chiplet 與3奈米伺服器專案鎖定全球 AI 與 HPC 伺服器市場。
  • 挖礦晶片客戶 客戶未公開具名；公開資料提及4奈米挖礦晶片專案為 2026 年營收成長動能之一。
  • 日、韓 ASIC 客戶 新聞資料提及透過星河相關先進製程IP驗證後取得日、韓客戶訂單，但未揭露具名公司與是否掛牌。
  • AI PC、邊緣AI、工業物聯網、車用、醫療、電信與消費電子應用客戶 公司官網揭露之目標應用領域；實際客戶多未公開。

Competitors

  • 創意 3443 台股上市 ASIC 設計服務與 SoC 設計服務公司，為安國在先進製程 ASIC／NRE 服務的主要台灣競爭者之一。
  • 世芯-KY 3661 台股上市 ASIC 設計服務公司，聚焦高階ASIC與HPC應用，與安國 AI/HPC ASIC 轉型方向重疊。
  • 智原 3035 台股上市 ASIC、IP 與設計服務公司，具成熟ASIC設計平台與多製程經驗。
  • 力旺 3529 台股上櫃矽智財公司，主要在嵌入式非揮發性記憶體IP；與安國在IP授權生態系屬部分競爭與互補。
  • M31 6643 台股上櫃高速介面與基礎IP公司，與安國 IP 設計服務／高速介面相關布局有競合關係。
  • 晶心科 6533 台股上市 CPU IP 公司，屬矽智財供應商；與安國 Arm-based CPU 平台方向在部分客戶需求上具替代或競合關係。
  • 群聯 8299 台股上櫃 NAND 控制晶片與儲存解決方案公司，為安國傳統記憶體控制IC業務的競爭者之一。
  • 慧榮科技 美國 Nasdaq 掛牌 Silicon Motion，主要從事 NAND 控制晶片，為安國傳統控制IC領域國際競爭者。
  • Alphawave Semi 英國上市高速連接IP與ASIC設計相關公司，非台股掛牌；在高速IP與先進ASIC服務領域與安國新業務方向具競爭性。
Sources（24）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.