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9945

潤泰新 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 潤泰新 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 88Quality 72Growth 88Momentum 40Chips 4

Is 潤泰新 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 80th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 3th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 46th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -9.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 72.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.00
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 永豐金-市政 holds 9,162 lots
  • sellers have 2,829 lots left, ~84 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-市政 has accumulated 9,162 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 康和 peaked at 2,323 lots, has sold 86%, 323 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.23pp, mid holders +3, retail +1.01pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -39,854 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-市政新光-桃園富邦-南京國泰證券合庫-桃園富邦-仁愛
Distributing
康和台新證券國泰-敦南元大-虎尾玉山-台南第一金-自由
Desks
own scale
摩根大通美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-市政 +9,162
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光-桃園 +6,024
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-南京 +2,538
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +2,456
    sold 0%
  • 合庫-桃園 +1,614
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-仁愛 +1,549
    sold 6%

Distributing

  • 康和 323 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 981 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 844 left
    sold 29%· ~84 sessions to clear
  • 元大-虎尾 127 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 玉山-台南 629 left
    sold 32%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-自由 130 left
    sold 83%· paused recently

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -16,082
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -14,932
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -12,375
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -11,314
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 2,829 lots ~84 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +24,104 absorbed / -1,463 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -31,961 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 72%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

94 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.7%, Sample 79, Median +1.26%, Excess +0.12%, Beat mkt rate 44.3%；60-day: Win 51.9%, Sample 77, Median +0.24%, Excess -2.2%, Beat mkt rate 40.3%；120-day: Win 49.3%, Sample 75, Median -0.81%, Excess -1.78%, Beat mkt rate 41.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.85%

20-day +1.38%
60-day +1.61%
120-day +5.85%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.7%
51.9%
49.3%
Sample
79
77
75
Median
+1.26%
+0.24%
-0.81%
Excess
+0.12%
-2.2%
-1.78%
Beat mkt rate
44.3%
40.3%
41.3%

Over 75 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.85%, lagged the market by 1.78 pts; win rate 49.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 780+1% -3.6% 36.4% -9.9%
20-40 1236+10% -0.4% 49.3% -11.3%
40-60 You are here283+17.8% -0.5% 48.8% +12.8%
60-80 581+13.3% -4.8% 45.6% -2.1%
80-100 123+29.1% +29.8% 100% -9.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 7.61, at the 45.5th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-3.1%
Win rate 25.9% Excess -8.2%
908d
Now
+12.3%
Win rate 59.8% Excess +5.2%
733d
+12.5%
Win rate 54.1% Excess -0.3%
111d
60-day momentum down
+6%
Win rate 54.5% Excess -2.9%
769d
-1.1%
Win rate 46.8% Excess -14%
419d
+5.4%
Win rate 41% Excess -9.8%
183d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 733 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.3%, win rate 59.8%, beat the market by 5.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.42%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +5.3 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.34%, win rate 48.3%, beating the market by -3.69 pts on average.

What does 潤泰新 do? Company profile

其他業；核心為不動產開發、商用不動產經營，並透過子公司與轉投資涵蓋營造、建材、室內裝修、壽險等 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

9945 對應證券為潤泰新，發行公司為潤泰創新國際股份有限公司，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1977/09/12，原為潤泰建設，1992/04/30 上市，2002 年更名為潤泰創新國際。總部位於台北市八德路二段 308 號 11 樓之一。依公司 2025Q3 法說會資料，董事長為簡滄圳，總經理為盧玉璜，股本約新台幣 284 億元；公開資訊與股市資料顯示已發行普通股 2,844,225,086 股，無特別股。2024 年報揭露 113 年度合併營業收入約新台幣 318.17 億元、歸屬母公司業主淨利約 165.63 億元、EPS 6.07 元、合併總資產約 1,939.65 億元。員工人數方面，2024 年度合併從業員工 3,006 人，2025/03/31 為 3,012 人。主要股東依 2024 年報包含潤泰全球 25.70%、匯弘投資 6.45%、宜泰投資 4.00%、長春投資 3.86%、潤華染織廠 1.51%、盈家投資 1.22%、財團法人唐獎教育基金會 0.90%、潤泰興 0.88%、花旗託管挪威中央銀行投資專戶 0.78%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數 0.77%。公司合併架構含潤泰創新開發、潤泰百益（松山 BOT）、潤泰旭展（南港 BOT）、潤泰建設、潤泰維護、潤泰保全、潤福，以及上市櫃或公開市場子公司/轉投資如潤弘精密、潤泰精密材料、潤德，並透過潤成投控等持有南山人壽相關權益。

Business

潤泰新為以大台北不動產開發為核心的多角化控股型營運公司，營收與獲利來源包含住宅與商辦開發銷售、商用不動產租賃與商場經營、建材、營造與裝修相關子公司，以及南山人壽等權益法投資收益。2024 年報揭露 113 年度營收結構為：營建事業部新台幣 235.96 億元、占 74.16%；建材事業部 44.999 億元、占 14.15%；商用不動產 20.785 億元、占 6.53%；其他營運事業部 16.427 億元、占 5.16%。營建業務以雙北捷運周邊、交通樞紐、精華地段與重劃區住宅/商辦為主，產品包含集合住宅、電梯大樓、商辦與捷運聯開/BOT 相關開發案；2024 年主要入帳建案包含潤泰央北、潤泰信義、潤泰敦峰、潤泰左岸生活及子公司潤泰建設青田 618。商用不動產以 CITYLINK 松山、南港、內湖等商場與車站 BOT/地上權案為主，透過租金、商場經營、品牌招商、停車與零售服務產生穩定收入。建材與營造垂直整合由潤弘精密負責營造承包、預鑄工法、機電整合，潤泰精密材料負責水泥、砂漿與相關建材，潤德負責室內裝修、景觀設計及工程施工。主要客戶包含住宅自住與換屋買方、商辦租戶、CITYLINK 消費者及商場品牌租戶；終端應用為住宅、商辦、車站複合商場、社區公設、建材與室內裝修。獲利結構另高度受南山人壽投資收益影響，2024 年公司說明營業外收入主要來自透過潤成投控轉投資南山人壽之利益，並按比例認列潤泰全球、日友環保等轉投資收益。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望可分為三條主線。第一，房地產本業：公司 2024 年報指出 2025 年可銷售個案包含松濤苑、潤泰敦峰、潤泰 CITY PARK、華山松江、潤泰之森、印象左岸等，並持續以雙北捷運周邊、精華地段、合建與政府聯開案為主。2025Q3 法說會揭露今年度推案金額約 110 億元，潤泰之森銷售約 9 成，兩個完工建案已陸續驗交屋，預計自 2025 年第四季至 2026 年第一季陸續入帳；未來 10 年已儲備超過 1,500 億元推案量。2026 年預計推案包含潤泰菁英匯（預估總銷 41 億元、預計 2028 完工、台北市中正區）、南港之星（預估總銷 580 億元、分棟分期銷售、預計 2029 完工、台北市南港區）、新洲美 114 地號、板橋環翠段案、板橋新都段案等，其中 2028 年可觀察潤泰菁英匯完工入帳與南港之星分期銷售進度。第二，商用不動產：公司表示玉成廣場已出租約 7 成，CITYLINK 南港、松山、內湖店營業額穩定成長，三重店即將開幕並持續評估新店址，商場租金與營運可作為較穩定現金流。第三，垂直整合與轉投資：潤弘、潤泰精材、潤德提供營造、建材、裝修整合，可降低部分工程協調成本並擴大上下游業務；南山人壽為重要獲利引擎，公司法說會稱南山人壽最近三年度市占率皆為前三大。主要風險包括央行不動產信用管制、囤房稅 2.0、房市交易量縮、建材與人力成本高漲、2026 年起碳費對高碳材料與營建成本的間接影響、利率維持高檔造成財務成本上升、預售銷售速度與完工入帳時程不確定、南山人壽投資收益受利率與資本市場波動影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 潤弘精密工程事業股份有限公司 2597 關係企業與重要上游/中游工程承包商，提供營造承包、預鑄工法、機電整合；年報多處揭露潤泰新與其簽訂建案新建工程、基礎工程或承攬契約。
  • 潤泰精密材料股份有限公司 8463 關係企業與建材供應鏈，法說會列為水泥、建材與砂漿相關事業；年報揭露潤泰新與其簽訂隔音地坪、建材買賣等契約。
  • 潤德室內裝修設計工程股份有限公司 6881 關係企業，提供大型住宅社區公設、室內裝修、景觀設計與工程施工；年報揭露多項室裝、景觀及公設工程承攬契約。
  • 土地所有權人、都市更新地主、政府機關與捷運/車站聯開主管機關 非單一掛牌公司；土地來源包含購地自建、合建分屋、公辦都更、捷運聯合開發、BOT/OT、設定地上權等。
  • 建築師、建築經理、代書、金融機構與工程顧問 多為專業服務或金融服務供應商；提供規劃設計、開發顧問、融資、工程管理與交易服務，年報以產業上中游角色說明，未揭露單一主要供應商。
Downstream
  • 住宅自住、首購、換屋與中長期置產客戶 非公司客戶群；為潤泰新住宅建案主要終端買方，公司年報指出市場主流需求為自住、換屋與中長期置產。
  • 商辦與玉成廣場企業租戶 非單一掛牌公司；公司法說會稱潤泰玉成廣場出租約 7 成，商辦租戶為商用不動產收入來源。
  • CITYLINK 商場品牌租戶與消費者 非單一掛牌公司；CITYLINK 松山、南港、內湖及三重店透過招商、租金與商場營運服務下游消費者。年報提及引進 DON DON DONKI、麥當勞、青花驕、NARA、壽司郎等品牌，其中多非台股掛牌公司或非台灣上市主體。
  • 不動產代銷、仲介、物業管理與售後服務業者 年報以營建產業下游角色說明，包含銷售、廣告、經紀、保固、物業管理等；公司未揭露單一主要下游客戶。

Competitors

Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.